Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 8/22/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from sweaty, stormy Tempe where we’ve had a weird mix of 110+ degree heat and moisture the last few days. There were several heat-related incidents with players at Bridge Camp yesterday. Looks like it’s going to break next week and our weather patterns will change.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get to your questions, might be a shorter chat this week as the only game in town is west valley today, which means a longer commute for you friendly neighborhood prospect writer.

Mike: Minnesota going to keep Abel and Bradley in the minors to lose every game?

Eric A Longenhagen: Their deadline was the only one that felt like a true, complete bottoming out, so maybe? I can see them wanting to give Zebby all the runway, but Urena and Hatch idk. Did Hatch tweak something in Japan they want to see vs MLB hitters for an extended spell? Trying to take the most generous read of the situation but yeah they might just be tanking. Which, ok.

Alex: Do the Braves have a chance to have more than one(Didier Fuentes) Top 100-ish prospects for 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ritchie’s had a good year and held his stuff even though his innings load has doubled. Will they be as aggressive with him as the other young arms, or will they be gun shy because AJSS and Fuentes were clearly undercooked?

db: Big night for Aidan Miller last night, two moonshots. Have you noticed anything different in his setup / swing in his recent turnaround? Or is it more approach based?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s looked fine all year, tools-wise. His bat path is such that he’ll probably K some, he’s not a 60 hit tool guy, but he’s going to get to power because of the strength and verve in his hands. He’s fine, wild in-season changes to him I’d constitute as an overreaction.

J36T: Thanks for all the prospect info.  You and the site truly bring value.  I wanted to know if you think if Joshua Baez has done enough yet for a an upward revision in hit tool grade?  His K’s are down around the 20% since July 1st – wondering if the in-zone contact and chase rate has improved along with the K rate, and has he done this long enough to justify a 40 or 45 hit tool grade?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think that guy is going to hit at all.

Alek: Felt like you were a little light on Jackson Kent…think a 45 or even mid rotation SP is a possibility?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe, changeup has performed like a 70 this year, other stuff is still average or below

Just a bit outside…: Is Chase DeLauter a lost cause in the OF?  DH only bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s in uncharted territory as far as injury frequency for a position player, I have no idea how that’s going to shake out.

Arn Anderson: Sam Brown gets traded to the Nats and turns into CJ Kayfus overnight. Anything new there or just SSS variance?

Eric A Longenhagen: Radical shift in hitting environment leaving Madison, I think he’s a good hitter and has big league utility but probably not the power to be an impact guy (same with Kayfus btw)

Casey: I have a buddy who is a Brewers fan who said he wouldn’t trade Made straight up for Skenes. How dumb is he?

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, I think most of us would take the known elite entity. There’s a lot of wishcasting in the queue today if I’m being honest.

Yokozuna: Quite a debut for Eli Willits last night. Comps?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK if there’s a flush comp to make, he’s a really good prospect though.

Phaser Ramon: Ethan Petry leads all draftees in OPS so far. High EV’s, walks a lot. 30 body/defender/speed. Thoughts here?

Eric A Longenhagen: In that DH only area, exits have always been huge, lotta 4A traits, fringe guy but indeed a prospect.

Jason: In your report on Jarlin Susana, you indicated his injury from earlier in the year slid him to the back of the 55 FV tier. Since he’s come back, he’s been dominating. You also mentioned in the report that we should take his AA results with a grain of salt. So my question is…how excited should we be about Jarlin and where would he be within that 55 FV tier now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Look awesome, happy to have him stuffed.

5 Run Homer: So does Basallo’s extension mean bad things for Adley or is Basallo just not a catcher for the Orioles?

Eric A Longenhagen: Positive spin: what if they both catch a bunch and both 1B/DH a bunch, everyone stays healthy and performs at their peak on offense all year.

Edouard Boolean: What are the chances we see Kevin McGonigle before the end of this season, and the chances we see him on Detroit’s opening day roster in 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s like 5-10%? Tough to replace Gleyber at 2B and I don’t think K-Mac is a good enough SS defender to just get thrown into the fire there and be okay with the big league pace of play.

Lord Thunder: What’s going on with Thayron Liranzo‘s horrible second half? Will you be lowering his FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not, I tend to move catchers conservatively because he might be dealing with an ailment we don’t know about. Plus, switch-hitting catcher with huge power, let it air out.

Alicia: What do you think of Jacob Wilson윌슨 as a hitter? It’s a weird profile, but I tend to think he’ll get stronger + that park will add power. Am I crazy to think he could Altuve-ey?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the same way Mike Harris and PCA have had their chase-driven roller coasters, I’d expect that from Jacob. But he’s good, he’s their everyday SS for the long haul I think.

Alex: Re: your commitment to breaking news – any info on Didier Fuentes’s injury that landed him on the 7-day IL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is that not out there? That’d be kinda nutty if it’s not, he was a big leaguer and surely there’s a good Braves beat who has reported that, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: If not I’ll get on it.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Any thoughts on recent Baltimore risers like Trey Gibson or Nate George? I saw George got the bump to 40 FV

Eric A Longenhagen: Gibson you could argue is a 50, George’s contact profile is so oppo-driven it’s terrifying.

Carl: The consensus on Andrew Fischer seemed to be that it was optimistic of the Brewers to announce him as a 3B. Early days still, but what has the initial impression of his defense been?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t done a deep dive on his defense since turning pro, I think the amateur report still holds water.

Brian: How close is the password to being a 50? Any chance he can get there?

Eric A Longenhagen: He could have some seasons where he’s producing on that level, CF defense is less stable than the PCA/Harris types and he has the chase piece, too. Feast/famine type if given long term run.

Brad: Does Josuar Gonzalez have top 10 prospect upside? Future 60 possible? What would it look like for him to get there?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible, let’s just see how he matures, physically.

metties: I’ve seen you use the ‘term tightly’ wound to describe some prospects in the past month but can’t quite find what you mean (it wasn’t in the visual scouting primers) — what does that mean and why is it potentially a red flag?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tight in the hamstrings and hips, usually.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ketel Marte is tightly wound. He doesn’t bend well, he gets hurt, he’s still a stud.

Oaktown Blues: Nick Kurtz still a 55 for you? (You said yes last time I asked but that was before his 4 HR game and continued awesomeness)

Eric A Longenhagen: What do you think he is?

Colton: Do you have a favorite complex here in the valley? I’m in south Tempe so Diablo is the closest stadium to me, caught quite a few ACL games there last year. Really like the Giants complex near old town and the Cubs and A’s are both a quick drive from here

Eric A Longenhagen: Giants is cool because of the view of the rocks. Salt River is cool during the ACL season because of the way the sunsets play off their 3b side, Camelback Ranch and Surprise are cool because they’re the easiest places to doubles up.

Sam: Your write up on Robby Snelling notes you’re the low guy based on stuff concerns and low whiff rates on the slider. Small sample, but looks like in AAA he has mostly replaced the slider w a curve that’s getting 45% whiffs, does that change the eval significantly for you? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes I think the automatic pitch tagging it classifying the same pitch as multiple different pitches. Like just a cursory glance at Snelling’s Synergy readout shows his curveballs all finishing in the bottom half of the zone and below, while his sliders are finishing in the top half of the zone. SO are they two different pitches or is the Triple-A statcast auto pitch tagging just seeing the ones he exectues well as having enough depth to consider them curveballs? And if it is, then there’s a selection bias in the 45% miss rate you’re citing.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s the type of thing that you need to watch the catcher’s signs to deduce, or see Snelling’s pitch grip on release.

Eric A Longenhagen: Lemme look at his other data real quick to see if the pitch traits are wildly different.

Eric A Longenhagen: The data is different enough to suggest they might be two different offerings

What did Jesus Make?: What’s Made’s potential HR output at his peak? Is 20 within reason?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d take the over

Adam D.: Jhonny Level sees the big leagues as a 20-year-old. True or false.

Eric A Longenhagen: FAlse

Guest: FG was lower on David Shields than I expected this year. Has his season changed that viewpoint to any real degree? Seems like a Top100 type arm personally

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel pretty comfortable with where he’s at. He’s a low A pitcher whose fastball is averaging 90 mph. I do think it’s a sneakier fastball than its velo, but it’s not like this guy has dominant stuff right now. The type of guy who’s a 45 FV when he’s closer to the bigs.

Squish The Fish: Are the struggles of the Jackson Three (Holliday, Chourio, Merrill) simply a reflection of their youth or are there signs they may not live up to their lofty prospect ratings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’m a little worried about Holliday because his grade was biggity big big. Merrill I’m not worried, and Chourio is having another 3 WAR season, he’s tracking in line with his grade exactly.

Aviaries: What’s your concern level wrt Zyhir Hope’s really poor contact rates in the low minors? You still have him ranked pretty highly among all prospects, and while I understand he has a lot of pop it just seems crazy that someone whiffing on a third of his swings in A+ is a top-50 prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a lot of whiffing, he’s probably still a 50 for me but I’d expect his ordinal rank to drop on next update

Arcadian: I’ve heard some rumblings that Benge has a flat swing, doesn’t seem to mess with his ability to put the ball in the air. Is this a concern for you with him or in general for other flat swingers?

Eric A Longenhagen: His average launch is 11 degrees, that’s pretty normal. Your clandestine, underground sources might be overstating it.

Lord Thunder: Did Grant Taylor lose his eligibility for The Board?  What are the chances he’s now locked into bullpen duty?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rookie eligibility dictates who’s on the board, that can be surpassed via innings or days on the roster. Rookie Eligibility | Glossary | MLB.com

Eric A Longenhagen: Hopefully this is a workload thing and they revisit him in the rotation next year.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I don’t have any dope on that.

G4: Are you really a pilot?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I lie in the excerpt all the time. I was dropping Rowley off at the airport.

Oddball Herrera: Am I just impatient/unrealistic or does it feel like Walcott has stagnated?  I get he’s young, but for a “potential number 1 overall prospect” type you really would like to see more than a league average wRC after nearly a full season there

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks a little fatigued, still pretty incredible what he’s doing at his age, still has elite physical projection.

GA Blood: Did you catch any of Parker Messick’s debut? I’m curious as to how representative that performance was for him because I came away very impressed. I suspect his velo was higher than normal, but his command was good and he did a great job of limiting hard contact.

Eric A Longenhagen: I did, he’s good. He’s been in the 45-50 FV area for three years, that’s about right based on how he’s looked again this season.

ballstrike: Dax Kilby have 70 grade hit tool possibility given the performance so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s played 8 games.

Eric A Longenhagen: and is hitting .214

Eric A Longenhagen: what’s happening here today?

Oaktown Blues: Jack Perkins has acquitted himself pretty well in the A’s rotation so far. Do you still have him pegged for a bullpen role long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so but I do know scouts who think he can start. He’s built like a starter and moves like a starter, the strikes have always been really crude in my looks.

Eric A Longenhagen: They should certainly try it

Eric A Longenhagen: they have nothing to lose by trying it right now, learn all you can and see what happens

Kevin C: why do people seem so low on Ty Johnson of the Rays? This guy has been dealing since he got traded to Tampa and passes the eye test as well

Eric A Longenhagen: Think the BP folks were pretty stoked on him, no?

Insert Witty Name Here: Would you put Painter in the Pen for the playoffs a la 2007 David Price?

Eric A Longenhagen: He doesn’t look in position to succeed in that way right now, he’s laboring.

Avery: Dalton Rushing has been just truly awful in the bigs so far, what do his chances of being the 60 FV guy he was rated at pre-season look like for you now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tough to gauge when he’s not getting regular time.

Bob Myrick: Is Pete Crow-Armstrong likely having the most valuable year ever for a position player with a sub-.300 OBP?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m trying to think of other great up the middle defenders who’ve had big power seasons….

Eric A Longenhagen: is there a Zunino year?

Eric A Longenhagen: or a Freddy Galvis peak HR season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tony Batista?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jonathan Schoop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Javy BAez’s big ones were north of .300

Eric A Longenhagen: PCA might be

LenFuego: Jarlin Susana is looking kind of electric; e.g.,13 Ks in 5 innings a few days ago.  Can we stop worrying about that early season UCL sprain, and might he earn a rotation spot out of camp in 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep and yep, don’t see him as more or less likely to break than anyone else now that he’s bumping 103 again

Wood: Felix Reyes has been torching AA in a not so small sample size after being a well below average bat the rest of his career. What are your thoughts on him? I’ve found next to no info online

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t buy his swing will play, KBO type guy for me

Bob Myrick: Where are you on Dylan Crews at this point? Is he the hitter most thought he was?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still on him

Carson Williams: Do you buy my improved hitting / decreased K rate?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a guy with a 3 bat who’ll still be valuable because it’s 7 defense and playable power

Guest: Thoughts on Caden Scarborough?  Has midrotation upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Above-average FB/SLD combo right now with strikes and huge projection at an athletic 6-foot-5.

Seattle: Why do they refuse to bring harry ford up

Eric A Longenhagen: Because they’d have to burn a 40-man spot to do it. If Cal is catching basically every day, and will during the playoffs if they make it, the I’d prioritize depth and want to keep Garver around even though he’s been bad. If you cut Mitch and bring up Ford and then he gets hurt, what do you do?

Philip: I have heard Juan Sanchez (Blue Jays DSL) has pretty absurd exit velo numbers? Is it possible for you to pass around his 90%ile exit velo? How does it compare to Made last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good for his age but not crazy. He has a 115 max but based on the nature of the rest of his data I’m wondering if that’s a misread. Lots of folks have trumedia logins now and not all of them are great at parsing what they’re seeing, which is maybe possible for your source

Okra: Pitcher age doesn’t matter, right?  Obviously does for hitters, but seems pitchers only have so many bullets before they break.  You also see many pitchers be successful into mid/late 30s unlike hitters.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think pitcher projection matters but that doesn’t always coincide with age

Eric A Longenhagen: deGrom is the extreme example of this

Guest: I recently noticed in your updated 2025 list that you pretty aggressively ranked Franklin Arias 26th. While pretty much everyone from 20 down is a 50, what makes you so much more confident in Arias succeeding in the bigs as opposed to other guys with seemingly similar skillsets like Nacho Alvarez, or say Tyler Freeman in the past. He’d have to improve a lot in the power department to even be average. Are you that confident that he can pull off a major league SS with an acceptable bat, or is there something in his batting profile I’m discounting?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a different level SS defender than those guys

Guest: When will Fangraphs add minor league splits?

Eric A Longenhagen: i’ll make a note

Upstate Mets Fan: Of Baty, Vientos and Mauricio who do you think has the most trade value?

Eric A Longenhagen: Man, that’s tough. Probably Mauricio just because of the defense piece. Everyone of that group has a wart, take your pick.

Andre Dawson’s Creek: Given the lost development time, should Tony Blanco be a candidate for the AFL to pick up some extra plate appearances? Or is that a bit too aggressive?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too young

Chadwick: Do you know what Winston Santos‘ back injury is and if he’ll be back this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s rehabbing down here, he threw last Friday, I wrote about it here: Notes On More Pitching Rehabbers | FanGraphs Baseball

The Prospector: Team lists done, top 100 update done, draft prospects done, IFA guys done… what’s next on the docket for ya?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m working on building the 2026 draft database, cataloguing video from Area Codes etc., Graduate Tab maintenance and TLDR updates for grads and top 100 guys, my fantasy football league had a steroid scandal, I’m writing about Top 100 prospect shortstop defense for Monday, farm system trends since the draft, I’m doubling up at a bridge camp and then the big league game tomorrow

Eric A Longenhagen: (we didn’t start the fire)

Eric A Longenhagen: Didier Fuentes has right shoulder inflammation

Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, my hour is up. Thanks for coming again this week. Talk to y’all next friday