Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, One Week to Fall League

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, we’ve got some great questions in the queue so I wanna hop into things quickly, but just a heads up on what I’m up to today:

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hitting instructs after the chat. Oak, AZ, SF and a KBO team. Looks like I’ll be doing the AL Wild Card live chat tonight with Sullivan, too. So come enjoy a more scout-y flavored chat if you’re so inclined.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok, let’s do it.

Billy: Have you gotten a chance to see Corey Ray yet this fall? What are your opinions on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume you mean the Brewers Corey Ray and not the Royals (who I saw throw a bullpen yesterday, he looked good). Haven’t seen CF Ray but heard he was on crutches this week so I’m looking into that.

Dan: Is Aristides Aquino a potential top 100 prospect heading into next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably somewhere on there or at least very much in the discussion. There’s some swing and miss and stiffness there but potential plus-plus raw power too.

Arthur: Is Aledmys Diaz legitimate? Or is he due to regress?

Eric A Longenhagen: So, when I saw Diaz in Fall League I did not love it. Thought he’d be a plus hitter but not a SS and the swing was so geared for contact that I didn’t think he’d hit for enough power to profile anywhere else as more than a 45 type of player.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if he made a change or if I was just wrong, but I know I wasn’t the only one the think those things last Fall.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m skeptical of his ability to repeat this, but the Cardinals churn out guys who have exceeded my expectations pretty frequently so I’m not going to admonish anyone for being optimistic. It’s justifiable.

Eric A Longenhagen: S/O Lester Holt for bring back “admonish”

Greg: Do you think Zack Collins will have trouble making contact as he moves up the ladder or do you see his current strikeout rates being a result more of consistently running deep counts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do think there’s swing in miss caused by the swing itself and not just the approach but I think you’re right to consider the approach when looking at the contact rate. The power/OBP combo absolutely plays everyday if he can catch, even with the strikeouts. But not everyone is sold on him back there. There are those that think the bat profiles at 1B too, if it needs to.

BK: Did Rowdy Tellez’s big 2016 season show enough strides to consider him an impact bat in the majors within a couple years?

Eric A Longenhagen: If he keeps hitting like this then yeah, but I remain skeptical. Really think he’s going to get exposed in the Majors.

William: Does Dustin Peterson have enough power to hold down a corner outfield slot ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but probably only as a platoon/low-end regular. Still a nice piece.

David L. : Rosell Herrera had a pretty strong year in Double-A but without the power he once flashed. What do you make of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know if he ever really recovered from that hand/wrist injury. Looks like it might be one of those that wrecks a career.

Greg: I have read about Dillon Tate exhibiting a pretty severe loss of velocity after being drafted. Have you heard anything in the way of explanation whether it might be injury related or mechanical or otherwise?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looked great during Spring Training, I think I had him up to 96 or 97, so I don’t think I’d say it was down “after the draft” but yeah his stuff went away this year. Tate has a pretty unique developmental history (remember, this guy was a reliever at UCSB until his junior year and was expected to be one that year too) so it could just be fatigue from suddenly throwing more than ever before. We’ll see where things are at in Fall League.

Chopper: Is Chih-Wei Hu a potential #3? Or too optimistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: That might be a little aggressive but how many 70-grade splitters have you seen? That pitch is insane.

CarrotJuice: Which infraction do scouts think was worse: the Preller/Padres medical files or the Cardinals hacking the Astros?

Eric A Longenhagen: StL

CarrotJuice: Do you think Moncada would be able to produce *right now* for the Red Sox?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought he was talented enough to do SOMETHING of use upon call-up but it’s Fall League for him and I don’t see Boston adding him to the postseason mix unless something catastrophic happens. Let him develop into a superstar, he’s got the ability.

Undecided: “The Tim Tebow Experience” has got me thinking again of another ex college & NFL QB: Washington Husky & Tennessee Titan Jake Locker. He was drafted by the Angels and I always wonder “what if” he chose baseball over football. Do you have any grades on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Never saw Locker. I love two-sport guys, though. So do scouts.

Gary: Jesse Winker, any thoughts on a possible rebound?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve always loved the bat but he just can’t stay healthy.

Bosa: Jurickson Profar’s future has to be somewhere else right? Banister refuses to play him full time.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a good chance he gets traded this winter, yes. It’s just about finding the right fit and some of that is going to depend on where Profar is comfortable playing, defensively, going forward. If he’s willing to play anywhere then look at clubs that seem to value versatility and those are the most likely suitors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Looking at you, Tampa.

Louis: How do you see Dustin Fowler most likely ending up in the long run? What is his possible ceiling if everything clicks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average everyday player.

Daito: have your thoughts changed at all on what tier of pitching prospect Yadier Alvarez sits in?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. Dude is a stud.

Jon Targaryen: I know hes not a prospect anymore, but are you in the Luis Severino won’t be a starter long-term camp? Or do you think it’s reasonable to expect him to develop a third offering?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did think he was a starter, not sure anymore. I’d say he has three pitches already in the heater, change and cutter.

Lloyd: As long as he’s a Brave, Ozzie Albies is done at SS huh? Still as excited about him as a 2B?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, though I think it’s worth asking if the power spike we saw across baseball this year (which was especially strong at 2B) is here to stay and whether or not it should change the way we view baselines for player evaluations/valuation (which, it follows, would most impact 2B)

CarrotJuice: The Theo Epstein lead Cubs have drafted/developed a lot of great position players (obviously) but very few MLB pitchers. Is this simply the result of them drafting position players early in the draft, or a failure to identify and develop amateur pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Epstein has been running the Cubs for what, four years? Five? Not really long enough to pass judgment on player devo/scouting, especially when they have a bunch of fun young arms at lower levels. I do think the prioritization of hitting early in drafts is a reason the big league team hasn’t had much internal help beyond the spot starter/relief types.

Mullet Head: At what position does Isan Diaz end up at long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2B and hitting in the middle of Milwaukee’s order

jon: What does the future look like for Rob Zastryzny? Lefty reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah or multi-inning, swingman, 5th starter type. Every org needs two or three guys like this.

Jedidiah: Who’s improved their stock the most since the draft — Cal Quantrill or Alec Hansen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hansen, though Quantrill is the better prospect

Jedidiah: Heard anything on Jose Miguel Fernandez? Where are his likely destinations, and are there any comps that spring to mind?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t heard any specific clubs but I’d expect it to be a team that has exceeded their pool allotment for the year.

Mullet Head: Any chance Greg Garcia turns into something more than a utility guy that OBP’s .380 with 5-10 HR annually?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not but he’s having success in his current role so I wouldn’t go messing with it.

Sam: J. Cotton or J. De Leon from here on out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably about the same, honestly. Both #3s for me.

Fred: Quick take on Amed Rosario & his season/progress?

Eric A Longenhagen: Top 15 prospect in baseball, power is coming.

KINGINDANORF: What should Yankee fans be on the lookout for in Fall League?

Jon Targaryen: I remember in the last start before the injury, Kaprielian touched 98 and 99 once or twice.. If he can consistently work in the 95-96 range with his fastball and on very rare occasions touch 98, what is his ceiling given he has two other potentially above average pitches?

Eric A Longenhagen: Those two go hand-in-hand. Tate, Kaprelian, Torres and Tyler Wade are all in Fall League so obviously those guys. On Kap: I don’t expect him to be bumping 99 when he comes back. He didn’t do that at all in college and don’t expect it going forward.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh and Miguel Andujar, who I didn’t love when I saw but who hit well at AA at a young age and tough hitter’s park is also worth monitoring.

Wakawaka: Other than a decrease in K rate, is there anything specific you could imagine seeing from Travis Demeritte in the AFL (mechanical adjustments, more walks, better approach etc.) that would make you less bearish on his chances to become an average player in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just taking better at-bats and being more consistent defensively.

Undecided: How much of a talent gap is there between Josh Bell and Dan Vogelbach. They have profiles that seem very similar to me. Dan a little more power and Josh a little more bat2ball skill?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bell a better body, athlete has more raw power than Vogelbach but the latter sells out for it in games and I think the statline reflects it. Give me Bell.

Owen: Anyone in the Pirates system you’re high on outside of the usual suspects?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Hearn.

Marky Mark: As a prospect enthusiast but not an expert in the mechanics of baseball, what resources do you recommend to improve knowledge on this aspect of scouting?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ted Williams‘ book is a pretty solid start. Driveline’s Kyle Boddy posts research papers on Twitter that talk about that aspects of delivery that have positive correlations with velocity so that’s worth checking out, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also just going to games and seeing what works and what doesn’t is probably necessary.

Jeff: The Cubs have some interesting arms, outside of Cease and Clifton, in my mind. Thoughts on Kellogg, De La Cruz, and Paulino?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ryan Kellogg, lefty from Arizona State: Backend stuff, pitchability guy. Low-90s, good breaking ball shape but it can be loopy, thought the changeup would be his best pitch at maturity when I saw him in college.

Eric A Longenhagen: De La Cruz: I’ve seen him up to 95 or 96, plus slider, has issues staying healthy and repeating, might just be a reliever but a great arm.

Eric A Longenhagen: Paulino: Low-90s, above average slider, waiting on a change.

CoolWinnebago: Kind of a boring question, but I’m curious as to how you (and scouts in general) take notes during a game. Do you have a template you use? Some kind of system? Or do you just show up with blank paper? Is there consensus among scouts about how notes are taken or does everyone have their own way of doing things?

Eric A Longenhagen: My own system has developed a lot over the years and probably will be in perpetuity, but for now I use a lined moleskin notebook. I give two lines per hitter and block off the bottom third of the page for notes on pitchers. Each team gets a page for that game. Take notes, if time allows I transcribe either onto a spreadsheet (doing this more) or onto a paper page with a scouting report template my wife created. It helps with recall more than anything but also keeps things organized which is more important than ever considering this is now my full time job instead of a freelance thing I did for ESPN whil holding down a full time insurance gig.

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams do it all sorts of different ways, as do individual scouts.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve seen some scouts use my approach, some guys take no notes, some have tablets with amazing software (NYY, I think MIL now) that lets them take notes directly in the team’s database and they can look at things like stats on the tablet if they want….

Eric A Longenhagen: SO yeah, I liked that question, wasn’t boring.

Edge O: Clevinger’ s big league debut has been disappointing. Are his chances good to crack the 2017 Tribe rotation out of camp? If not, SP long term, or pen piece?

Eric A Longenhagen: That rotation has been injury prone so I think there’s a good chance he starts next year in the rotation.

Jack C.: What’s the word on Fernando Tatis Jr.? How bad did the White Sox mess up that trade?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks really good. Above average bat speed, potential 6 defense at 3B at maturity. Could hit 18+ homers and hit .260 or so. I think the White Sox logic for making the trade was sound, it just didn’t work out at all. Padres must’ve liked Tatis as an amateur (he wasn’t high on Kiley’s J2 rankings from that year, nor on the ones I did for ESPN) because when he started to impress in Extended I don’t recall seeing Padres scouts hanging around to see it. Really just a good scouting job by them, not a White Sox blunder until hindsight is factored in.

Ben: Is Brandon Woodruff under consideration for top 100 prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Mid-90s, will show you three above average pitches.

Jeff: Eric, if the Cubs want to trade Jeimer Candelario and /or Jorge Soler for pitching in the offseason, can you ballpark the type of return? My guess is either basically brings back a top 75-100 type of arm or maybe a guy that’s up and has lost some luster, but is still young. Close or no?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s pretty close. Really depends what teams think of Candy’s defense. If you think he’s even passable at 3B then he’s an above average everday player with those bat to ball skills. I don’t think that. SOler I’d be all over as a buy-low guy with middle of the order potential. Be glad to give up an arm I felt was overachieving in my system for him.

Jason: How would you compare Sixto Sanchez to Adonis Medina and Franklyn Kilome?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sixto is short but has big time present velo/stuff in general. Medina is all physical projection, you can see the stuff (fastball movement, curveball shape) is in there but it doesn’t play right now and you hope it does as he gets older. Kilome is everything. Throws hard, curveball bites but you can see more coming as he matures too. Off the top of my head, give them: Kilome, Sixto, Medina.

Fred: I know it was just one game and probably a few at bats, but what’d you think about Maitan?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rusty (it was his debut) but good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely not a SS, though. More of a body thing than a skills one.

Phil: Juan Soto just had a hell of a year as a 17 year old. Do you think he pops up on most top 100 lists next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw Soto the next day and he also looks good but probably not quite top 100 for me. Big body, corner only guy with power. That means he has to hit. He might, but there’s more risk in evaluating him than someone who has a similar skill profile but has hit all the way through Hi-A/Double-A like say, a guy like Tyler O’Neill.

EC: How do guys like Trea Turner up the power in the majors when they never showed it in the minors? Is there any way you can spot these sorts of guys?

EC: Keith Law said, looking back, that he wasn’t sure that Trea Turner would hit with wood. What does that mean?

Eric A Longenhagen: These are really good questions and ones that deserve more thought than I can give them in a chat. I too was worried about Turner hitting for power in pro ball. In college Turner had a very flat swing that only produced loft when he adjusted his lower half. At the time, I did not like guys with a flexed front leg (like Corey Seager and Turner), I preferred the stiff front leg though contact (like Bryce Harper) for biomechanical reasons that are too detailed to get into here.

Eric A Longenhagen: But yeah, turns out that there are all sorts of ways to hit for power. With Turner, I really think it’s an approach thing. Guys with those kind of wheels are told to slap, put the ball in play. Screw that, hit dingers if you can.

Eric A Longenhagen: I also think that we see power spikes from guys who didn’t hit for it in the minors because you get better coaching in the Majors and because guys in the Majors are on big league diets and entering their physical prime. Lotta variables there.

Wakawaka: How does a prospect that reportedly has just “okay” bat speed manage to hit for big-time power? I’m specifically thinking of Austin Riley who has showed a lot of game and raw power, but continues to have skeptics bc of a lack of “premium bat speed”. It seems like bat speed would be a prerequisite to hitting for power.

Eric A Longenhagen: So I agree with you that it’s hard to hit for power without good bat speed but there are other aspects of swinging a bat that lead to game power more than just how fast it’s going (like loft, the hitter’s timing, point of impact on the ball, etc). Also I think it’s worth considering mass, right? I don’t know for sure but if the ‘Force” applied to a baseball is what causes it to travel far and force = mass x accel and accel is bat speed, what’s mass? The mass of the bat? Do a hitter’s forearms/wrists factor into that? I don’t know.

Eric A Longenhagen: I also think it’s possible to misidentify swing length as poor bat speed. I’ve done that.

Colby: Will Kyle Muller emerge as the top pitching prospect for the Braves in 2017?

Eric A Longenhagen: Proabbly not. He’s a good prospect but Allard, Anderson, Fried, Touki…a lot of names to climb over there.

Bob: Are you going to do anything related to the Rule V draft

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not in advance of it but afterward, yes.

Marky Mark: How do you feel about pitcher stride length? I’ve heard criticism about Alex Reyes and Aaron Sanchez because of their shorter strides. Do you think this matter/what does this affect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Long stride: Pros – better extension, probably using the lower half better and generally enabling athleticism throughout the delivery. Cons – can be tougher to maintain if the pitcher isn’t a great athlete and can’t repeat a more explosive delivery

Short stride: Pros – more downhill plane on the fastball, might aid in getting downward spin on the breaking ball, easier to repeat for those with weak lower halves. Cons – might be tougher for guys to get out over their front sides without that drive off the mound

There are no universal good when it comes to hitting/pitching mechanics. SOme stuff just works for some guys and not others.

Funky Bunch: What is a head whack? I see it mentioned in many scouting reports. What does it affect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pitcher’s head violently tosses around during release. It’s a sign of high-effort in the delivery and can impacy command if the pitcher isn’t seeing the target.

Erik: Did JP Crawford hurt his prospect status at all this year? He put up respectable numbers, but nothing befitting a top 5 prospect. What would be more affected, his ceiling or his risk?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think expectations on the bat got a little out of hand because Reading does that, doesn’t it? Think this one is more on the media/fans than it is JP.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh and I still think he’s a top 15 prospect. I’ll take a 6 glove at SS with a patient approach.

Q-Ball: The Cardinals system appears to be drying up a bit. Is this just a lull, or are they facing a challenge in terms of talent pipeline?

Eric A Longenhagen: There might be a gap between now and when Delvin Perez, Dylan Carlson, Sierra, etc are ready for prime time but they still have a lot of talent.

Q-Ball: KBO team? Lots of 80 batflips, no doubt.

Eric A Longenhagen: Legit asking every one of the coaches there if they’ve found a legit Korean place here in Phoenix because in 2+ years I have not.

Q-Ball: Do some clubs have more scouting presence in Asia than others? Who do you feel is particularly active out there? Would you say interest is increasing in Asian players from an IFA standpoint?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, there’s an AL East team that had plans last year to eliminate scouting in ASia entirely and just do work from video while others are chomping at the bit to mine talent in Korea and Japan because, statistically, the people there are getting bigger.

Joe: Is Carson the voice of Marvin the Martian?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and I do Kirk Van Houten

Mike C: Who do you like better long-term, Juan Soto or Leodys Taveras?

Eric A Longenhagen: Leodys

Jimmy: Can Chris Okey be a starting MLB catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him yesterday and I think so, though he certainly has things to work on. Corky Miller was watching him closely yesterday so I assume Okey’s development is a priority for them.

Mickey: As a dad of a 3 year old, I recommend Fall League to everyone. Great for the kid without the crowds of Spring Training.

Eric A Longenhagen: I cannot deny this, though please keep human children away from me. Thank you.

Eno Ray Jepsen : Are you more excited to see Moncada work on his defense or adjusting to breaking balls?

Eric A Longenhagen: Defense

Joe: Were there any surprise sleepers at Braves Instructs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah hold on let me grab my notes to make sure I don’t miss anyone….

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, Jeremy Walker. 90-94 with heavy sink, above verage slider 86-88 with tight late movement, albeit short. Average curveball, mid-to-upper 70s. No changeups, but if he can locate those breaking balls he’ll get lefties out.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also this Acuna guy. Anyone heard of this guy, Acuna?

Andy: I hardly ever read about Imani Abdullah but when I do it’s always about how great he looks. What’s his future potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: A real long term project but yeah, good body, low-90s, curveball feel. Just raw

Andy: Who should the Dodgers be more excited about: Bellinger, Verdugo, Calhoun, or Alvarez?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I were a GM and were trying to trade for Alvarez and Friedman told me I’d have to eat a pair of Tommy LaSorda’s underwear from 1984 as part of the deal, I’d make the deal.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, time for instructs. Thanks for your questions this week, I will see you tonight for the AL Wild Card chat here on the site, stopwatch in hand.