FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 9/6/17

3:15

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best matchup?

CHC (Quintana) vs. PIT (Cole) (58.0% | 54 votes)

NYY (Gray) vs. BAL (Gausman) (11.8% | 11 votes)

WAS (Gonzalez) vs. MIA (Peters) (3.2% | 3 votes)

ARI (Walker) vs. LAD (Maeda) (19.3% | 18 votes)

HOU (McCullers) vs. SEA (Moore) (6.4% | 6 votes)

Other (1.0% | 1 vote)

Total Votes: 93

3:16

Paul Swydan:

What’s the longest you have stayed at a baseball game as a fan?

Never make it to the 9th inning (1.9% | 2 votes)

Regulation 9 innings (13.8% | 14 votes)

10-12 innings (31.6% | 32 votes)

12+ innings (23.7% | 24 votes)

15+ innings (15.8% | 16 votes)

18+ innings (6.9% | 7 votes)

21+ innings (0.9% | 1 vote)

I never go to games, people are the worst (4.9% | 5 votes)

Total Votes: 101

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Paul Swydan: How’s everybody doing on this fine evening? Well, I hope.

9:02	Cena : What is the yanks biggest weakness?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Lack of top end starters for the playoffs

9:03	Paul Swydan: I’d say it’s clearly defense.

9:03	Paul Swydan: They’re top 10 in most everything, but not defense. They rank 23rd there.

9:04	Michael Brand: Which Mitch Haniger is the real Mitch Haniger?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: The 4th outfielder one. Tough to really say. Maybe one with many ups and downs is the real one. We just don’t know yet.

9:05	Paul Swydan: If you’re forcing me to pick between 132 wRC+ first half Haniger and 81 wRC+ second half Haniger, I’ll take second half, but I think it’s probably a combo.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Or rather, he’s in between those two players.

9:06	Hannah Hochevar: If the Verlander package was what Houston offered for Britton, should I be more or less upset than I already was that the O’s didn’t deal him?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Has that been reported? I have a hard time believing that. But, if it was, then yeah, you should be more upset with the O’s.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: If it was the package, I would be upset.

9:07	Michael Brand: Do you think McCullers’ issues have been from fatigue?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Jeff would have a better read on this than me.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I don’t think his entire arm can hold up to how hard he throws. Every arm will eventually give out.

9:09	Minty: How excited for Kopech should we be, and is June realistically the earliest that we see him

9:09	Paul Swydan: You should always be excited when a prospect graduates to the majors. That’s always a happy day, whether the player goes on to become a great player or not.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Fairly excited and tough to tell on an arrival time.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I would say your guess on arrival time is correct though. The White Sox won’t compete next season, so no reason to rush him.

9:11	Mac: Assuming maximum efficiency and done as often as possible, how much value could the Red Sox have gotten out of their sign stealing?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: A few runs, the hitters still need to make solid contact.

9:12	Paul Swydan: A game, two games tops. Not an insignificant amount in a tight division race, but…shrug.

9:12	Paul Swydan: That’s not to say I condone Boston’s behavior. I’d take away the next first-round selection they can actually make.

9:13	Dan: You guys believers in Javy Baez as a 30 homer, 15 steal guy in 2018?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:14	Rhys: Hoskins, over/under 35 homers, .280 ba, in 2018?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Under

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Under on both, but he may be close to the home runs. Everyone seems to hit 30 with the juiced ball

9:15

another bad dynasty manager: A question about protecting a team’s future assets: why would the Phillies keep starting Nola when they’re a last place team? He’s already thrown 32+ more IPs than last year, and he’s scheduled to start vs. the Nats this week. I don’t get it. IMO he’s clearly the best starter they have. If you were the GM would you shut him down after one more start?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:16	Paul Swydan: You want him to be able to build up that arm strength, build up that durability.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on their plan and most teams don’t count IP, it will be pitches counted.

9:17	Mike: Yankees first base situation, bird gets the another chance but who do they bring in for insurance

9:17	Paul Swydan: Well that’s what Headley and Holliday are for.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I imagine they could bring Holliday back for next year, if you mean next season.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Just trade for one if needed or move an outfielder there. 1B will take care of itself. Easy to fill

9:19	Mike: Who starts at 1b 3b and DH for the Yankees in the playoffs?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Based on the last week or so, it looks like Headley will be the odd man out. Bird at 1B, Frazier at 3B, Holliday at DH, and Headley filling in all around.

9:20

terry from Cincy: no question…just wanted to say I stayed 18 innings at what began as a Bret Saberhagen-Nolan Ryan duel in the early 90’s….it was glorious…Carmelo Martinez dingers off a rusty Jeff Russell in bottom of the 9th and the fun began! Think Brett had 5 hits…Kevin Reimer 5 hits and Hal McRae first ever ejection…Royals win bottom of 18th on a wild throw by Kenny Rogers!! Also, was in upper deck and never moved, despite it being about a 6 hour game (if memory serves)…fun times!

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Doesn’t really matter or make much of a difference. Each player is OK

9:20	Paul Swydan: I put that question in because I stayed for all 19 innings of Blue Jays-Red Sox last night, and it was glorious in its ignominy.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Congrats and at least back then you could keep buying beer

9:21	Paul Swydan: Yeah it was brutal last night. We sat through a whole game basically of no concessions. We went to 7-11 right after.

9:21	Wily Mo’s ghost: Looked up Todd Walker, who is a fill-in for the Remy Memorial Chair at NESN tonight. Surprised to see he was only a career 10 win player–I thought of him as pretty decent (but B-R and Fangraphs see him similarly). Was he really that bad defensively?

9:21	Paul Swydan: YUP!

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Brutal

9:22	Wily Mo’s ghost: Is Fister one of the RS’s four best starters?

9:22	Paul Swydan: No. Not unless you’re REALLY down on Porcello, and as bad as Porcello has been, he’s still not walking guys. It’s a lot of HR and BABIP, and in a one-game sample, he might be fine.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Might be right now

9:23	Robert: Who starts Game 1 of the ALDS — Keuchel or Verlander?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Verlander

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, either will be fine

9:24	BoJack Horseman: No one should watch any baseball this Friday! Instead, they should watch me, BoJack Horseman (THE MOVIE STAR) in season 4 of BoJack Horseman.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Important PSA from Bojack. Thanks Bojack!

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Congrats on season 4

9:25

Billy Beane: MLB isolated slugging (min 100 PAs):
1. Rhys Hoskins (.440)
2. Giancarlo Stanton (.368)
3. J.D. Martinez (.367)
4. Joey Gallo (.354)
5. Matt Olson (.351)

Homers through 141 PAs:
Matt Olson, 14
Aaron Judge, 14
Rhys Hoskins, 12 (111 PAs)
Cody Bellinger, 11

I feel like if Matt Olson were on a team that wasn’t the A’s he’d get a lot more attention. Dude is a monster.

9:25	Paul Swydan: I feel like we’ve written about him a couple of times, but you may have a point.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably

9:26	Michael: What were your first baseball related jobs?

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Doing back end work for FG collecting data

9:27	Paul Swydan: Does being a farm league umpire as a teenager count? If not, then as a ticket taker/usher for the Red Sox.

9:27	Rick Hahn: Indians going to WS again this year? Look great even with Kipnis and Brantley on the shelf.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is them or the Astros

9:28	Paul Swydan: I think I’m sticking with the Astros as my pick, but I feel like only Houston, Cleveland and NY have a shot at the WS in the AL.

9:30	Michael Brand: Do the Angels have any chance of winning a playoff series with that “rotation” since they good back end bullpen pitching and middle of the lineup?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t think so, no.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Not a series. Anyone could luck out and win the WC game

9:31	Compton: Any way to view the past week of Nicasio as anything other than the Pirates messing up?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I feel we aren’t hearing the full story.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Not really, no. To quote J.K. Simmons in “Thank You For Smoking,” I just can’t imagine a way in which they could have screwed up worse.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, it’s Nicasio who’s on his 103rd team

9:32	A.: Marcell Ozuna is having a breakout year, is this his peak? Is it sustainable? On a related note, I should feel good for him but instead it just makes me sad that the Marlins have 3 amazing outfielders and an AAA team around them

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Might be his peak. I don’t buy the .351 BABIP

9:34	Paul Swydan: I think it is his peak, yes. And a pretty good peak it is. I think he could maintain it for a couple of seasons.

9:34	Compton: How did Rich Hill become elite and why don’t pitchers just do that?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Because most pitchers need to fail repeatedly before they latch onto an unconventional idea like “only throw breaking balls.”

9:35	Paul Swydan: To his credit, Hill kept trying to find a way, and he did.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Because they can’t locate their curve ball better than their fastball. Also, they don’t curse on the mound as much as Hill

9:36	Wily Mo’s Ghost: So Nicasio didn’t have to go through waivers again on his new team? I feel like I will never have that rule straight.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Me neither. But I don’t think they did, no.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure

9:37	Michael: Best guess to where Harper is playing baseball in 2019?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yankees.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Philly … I think it will be crazy money.

9:38	Ryan: Think LAD tries to trade Taylor this offseason? His value will likely never be higher, and the Dodgers seem to a crowded IF and OF even without him

9:38	Paul Swydan: Props to Ryan, who is thinking three steps ahead. No, I think they’ll probably hang onto him.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I always fill someone will be on the move with them but they just keep everyone around

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: They have like 17 outfielders

9:39	Wily Mo’s Ghost: I am incredibly biased as a Red Sox fan, but I feel like this would be a very minor story if it were a dispute between, say, the Twins and Royals.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Well, it might not have been leaked to the NY Times, if that’s what you mean, but I still think we’d be making a big deal out of it.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Not minor in baseball. It’s getting some non-baseball love because it’s the Sox

9:40	Dakota mcKee: How about Matt Harvey (or Matz) for Jonathan Villar as an offseason challenge trade?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Brewers have no reason to do that. Harvey and Matz have no value left IMO.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Great, more middle infielders for the Mets

9:41	Patrick: If you’re Dave Dombrowski, who do you commit to between Bradley and Bogaerts?

9:41	Paul Swydan: If I’m Dave Dombrowski, I know that I have the budget for both of them and that I don’t need to choose.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Bradley. At least he can play defense if he is not hitting. Maybe neither

9:42	Kendrys Molasses: Better offensive prospect heading into 2018: Vlad or Acuna?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Vlad

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:43	Rick: Where does Eduardo Nunez land this off-season?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I just want to note that this is a question that now requires attention. Nunez has been great.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be with a contender as a super utility. Washington.

9:45	Ryan: What is a plausible over/under for the Mets next year? Seems like a lot of potential for success and failure both, depending on rotation health and prospect development

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: 70 to 92 wins

9:46	Paul Swydan: 75.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Over but not by much

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: 78

9:46	Paul Swydan: And I’ll take the under. Until they completely restructure their front office – GM, manager, medical staff – I don’t see them contending.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe they should bring back that Bonilla guy they keep paying

9:47	A.: No question here, just would like to mention since this is the chat that goes on during the evening game slate that the CHC-PIT pitchers duel is living up to the hype – 0-0 in the eighth

9:47	Paul Swydan: You guys nailed that one.

9:48	Billy Beane: People overuse the phrase “Ben Zobrist type” to just mean a good utility player. I think in order to be a “Ben Zobrist type” you need to be a switch hitter. I am irrationally passionate about this qualification.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Fair, but then Brock Holt qualifies as a Ben Zobrist guy, FYI.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t feel the player has to switch hit at all. Can they hit and play several IF and OF positions.

9:49	Seth Moko: As a Twins fan, I don’t think they’re smart enough to pull it off

9:50	Paul Swydan: It being hold down the Wild Card spot, I presume? Try to have a little optimism!

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: And as a Royals fan, I’m not sure they are smart enough to catch them doing it

9:50	CarrotJuice: Do you guys watch games while chatting? If so, which game are you watching?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I sometimes listen to the radio feed but usually only watch if it is a playoff game chat

9:52	Paul Swydan: Usually, but I couldn’t take any more of Todd Walker and the Sox shouldn’t be playing tonight anyway, so I’m watching Season 3 of Lost. Which is my favorite season of Lost.

9:53	Guest: What do you think a peak Bradley Zimmer slash line could look like?

9:54	Paul Swydan: .280/.350/.420 ???

9:54	Paul Swydan: Something like that.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: .300/.350/.450 He’ll have some BABIP luck once

9:55	Garrett: Do you think Cleavland can/will catch Houston. Feel like at this point a wild card team would much rather face Astros than the Indians.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I don’t think you want to face either, to be honest, especially if McCullers gets right.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I don’t think they will.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:56	Michael : Who are your favorite pitchers to watch? What about hitters?

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I like watching Cueto. Stanton for hitting.

9:58	Paul Swydan: One thing that’s dropped off for me is having specific favorite players to watch on a nightly basis.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, usually I watch the pitchers I’ve never seen before

9:59	Paul Swydan: Which is a bit sad. I wish I had a better answer for you!

9:59	Zack: Clint Frazier as WC-game sleeper? Would obviously need some AB’s the final week, but at the least as a PR?