FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/11/14

by Paul Swydan

November 11, 2014

6:51	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! First FanGraphs After Dark chat since September, who’s excited? Sorry I didn’t get the queue open sooner, but it’s open now, so pop in with questions, and Jeff and I will see you at 9 pm ET!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi peoples!

9:02	Comment From Rated Rookie Most offseason/hot stove rumors.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Helpful reminder before we begin!

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Hey y’all

9:03	Comment From Josh Who hangs up: Tulo for Andrelton, Gattis and Lucas Sims

9:03	Paul Swydan: The Rockies. They already have one catcher who can’t catch, not sure they need a second.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, Gattis in the issue, but Andrelton is a good start, maybe a pitcher instead.

9:04	Comment From Alex Has the A’s window of competitiveness ended?

9:04	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. The pitching is still very good, and there’s still Donaldson.

9:05	Comment From Rated Rookie I’m excited about the chat, but am also having a hard time coming up with questions to ask.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I would never count the A’s out of it. Anything can happen and they have a nice group of players.

9:05

Comment From Guest
If you were the Red Sox, would you call on Tulo? What would you be willing to give up in this screw pitching, we are going for a powerhouse offense/defense approach. Trading for Tulo and moving Xander to 3rd seems preferable to a awful Sandoval contract. Maybe a package of Owens, Marrero, and bit more?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Owens, Marrero and a bit more is not even in the ballpark.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I wouldn’t call on Tulo if them. Put the money towards pitching.

9:06	Paul Swydan: This is why Tulo is not getting traded. Any package would have to be so outlandish that no team is going to want to pay it. Especially not for a guy who never gets to 130 games played a season.

9:07	Comment From Rick Hahn What is a reasonable haul for Alexei Ramirez?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think two B to B+ prospects, most likely pitchers. I certainly think that you should be moving Alexei before the Cubs decide to deal Castro.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with Paul, not much at this point.

9:08	Comment From stone mountain Is B.J. Upton forever broken? What about a trade of Atlanta’s B.J. Upton (three expensive years), Justin Upton (one year) and Evan Gattis (four years) to Seattle for Austin Jackson (one year), Michael Saunders (two years) and Chris Taylor (six years)?

9:10	Paul Swydan: A) I don’t think that Seattle can fit those three guys into the lineup at the same time. B) Even if Upton isn’t forever broken, he’s not going to be an attractive piece of any trade, he’ll be lumped into a trade as an albatross. He has no trade value right now.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: The trade is close, but I think Atlanta will get basically nothing useful for Upton. Why would a team want him?

9:10	Comment From Rick Hahn Danks for Ethier or Crawford and lots of cash seems like a no-brainer. Need a lefty bat and their D will play in a smaller park. Does it get done?

9:11	Paul Swydan: No, Danks is terrible.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Now Danks for Upton is a trade I could see.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yeah maybe!

9:11	Comment From head of charles Absent contract extensions, what are the relative trade values of two years of Giancarlo Stanton and two years of Adrian Beltre? Would Xander Bogaerts be enough for the Red Sox to land either player? Would Mookie Betts be enough? Both Bogaerts and Betts?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Mookie might be enough to land Beltre, but I can’t see such a thing happening.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Both would do, especially Beltre. The Marlins could ask the farm for Stanton.

9:13	Comment From Pale Hose After dark is back!

9:13	Paul Swydan: Woo!

9:13

Comment From montlake cut
What are the chances the Mariners can lure Yasmany Tomas to Seattle with a young team that fell one game short of the 2014 postseason, two of baseball’s most prominent players from Latin America in perennial All Stars Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano, and a Cuban lefthander Roenis Elias, who had 29 starts this year despite entering the season without throwing a pitch above Double A?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Depends. Are they going to offer him the most money?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul, money will be the number one factor.

9:14	Paul Swydan: There are Latin players on every team, and Cuban players on a lot of teams. Unless his family has some connection with Elias I doubt that makes much difference.

9:14	Comment From Guest What would a cubs trade for Jason Hayward look like.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I would think Baez would be involved. But I don’t see any reason why any team would give up prospects for Heyward when the Braves have made it pretty damn clear that they’re not going to re-sign him.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure, I see the Cubs moving Castro first.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Yeah, problem is the Braves have SS filled.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Which is why I don’t think they match up super well.

9:15	Comment From Ringo Hey Paul. I was just cruising around the site looking at recent draft picks and noticed that Spencer Adams player page is completely empty. Could you fix that please? Thanks

9:15	Paul Swydan: Noted!

9:16	Comment From Juanita Since there’s nowhere to go between the Cubs and Chris Coghlan, they should deal him yes? B or B- minus prospect?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Nope. Every team needs a Chris Coghlan. After being irrelevant for a few years, I’d think he’d be happy to have any major league role on the Cubs.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I would not be a hurry to move him.

9:17	Comment From francis At first I thought Robertson was crazy to turn down his QO. But I think he wants out of NY because the NY media fueled fan base are all in on Betances and are going to call for Robertson’s head the first chance they get. Agree ?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I do not, sorry.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think he is hopping for 30-35M before his arm falls off.

9:18	Comment From Guest Steamer seems to have some lofty expectations for Steve Pearce next year. Do you see him having a full time job next year?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. That’s part of the calculus with being happy to cut Cruz and Markakis loose.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, he is cheap and thrived in that small stadium.

9:19	Comment From Meat Will Joc see 500 ABs in the majors this year? Will his power and speed provide good results?

9:19	Paul Swydan: No, and eventually.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: He should, but won’t. Yes, but the Dodgers need to eat a ton of money to get it done.

9:20	Comment From Drock… Yusmiero Petit is 4 th in strikeout total projections next year according to steamer , How is that possible?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Because most of his last three years totals are from this year when he had a ridiculous K%?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: His K’s are off the charts and Steamer may be over rating his relief numbers.

9:21	Comment From john Would the mets have been better off, say, attempting to deal for van slyke?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I’m sure they called the Dodgers. Friedman has been on the job for 10 minutes, I’m sure he and Zaidi need more time to wrap their arms around what they want to do.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but the Dodgers seem keen on keeping Van Slyke and moving a couple of the other OFers

9:23	Comment From Phil I feel like the internet is still obsessed with the RS trading Betts when all reports suggest Cespedes and Craig are likelier to be dealt. Am I wrong?

9:23	Paul Swydan: You’re not wrong, that is an accurate assessment of what is going on.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts has real trade value, especially to small market teams, the other two don’t have much.

9:24	Comment From Kimbrels Jock Strap What else would the Braves need to include with Gattis to get the Mookster?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Pitching.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Wood at least

9:25	Comment From Puttin in wRC neal huntington stated today that if Martin doesn’t come back the Buccos will look outside the organization for the next catcher. What would it take for the Bucs to acquire Grandal and Kennedy from the Padres?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Well, I’d focus on just Grandal, but I’d guess a lot. Not sure the Padres want to play Rivera full-time.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Catchers kind of get floated quite often. I think they will see who gets released.

9:26	Comment From Elvis Andrus At this point, am I hoping for a trade?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure you are hoping for one, I think I would be worried about your teammates being healthy.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I think at this point, you’re still loving life. As far as your team goes, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers turn things around quickly. Still some good pieces there.

9:27	Comment From Ceej Should I resign myself to the fact that Josh Bell at 1B is the best hope that I have as a Bucco fan? If so, anytime soon?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t resign myself to that, no. It’s November 11th!

9:27	Comment From Henry Roengarner Does Cuddyer leaving wrongly convince the Rockies that they don’t need major changes?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I have no idea why Cuddyer leaving would convince the Rockies of that.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I heard some stuff he is probably in RF (I think Kiley wrote it today).

9:28	Comment From Timmy and Tommy Will the D-Backs or Rockies find a legit strategy first?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I’m obviously biased here, but I’ll say the Rockies without hesitation.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I am thinking the D-backs will, but they have each dug themselves some pretty big holes.

9:29	Comment From Jordan Any advice for a senior in college who doesn’t know what he wants to do after he graduates?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Find the highest paying job you can while you contemplate what you really want to do.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Travel, watch baseball ….

9:31	Comment From Forsyth Crazy Trade Idea: Bogaerts, Betts, Owens, and Will Middlebrooks for Cargo & Tulo? Who hangs up?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Red Sox. It’s not an unfair proposal though.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Boston’s medical staff

9:31	Comment From Bertrum The Yankees may have the dough, but does the Mets’ young pitching offer more legit hope or is that just wishful thinking?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I think the Mets have the more immediately bright future, but that is damning with relatively faint praise. Never count out Cashman though.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: More hope with the Mets for sure, but the Yankees are doing so many things right.

9:33	Comment From Walter Johnson Does the Matt Williams MoY award just point out how silly MoY is? He probably has a 3:1 negative approval by all Nats related fandom sites and commenters. Even granted that we fans are irrational, that still makes the award feel ludicrous.

9:34

Paul Swydan: I think that in a year where no manager separates himself, the award goes to the manager with the best record, and that made Williams the default choice. I don’t think it’s anything to get worked up about – he has already earned plenty of credibility with his bosses with or without the award.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: The MOY award is just dumb. Tony Pena even sold his one on Ebay a few years back. I am still kicking myself for not dropping the 1K to buy it.

9:34	Comment From Aaron Was Nori Aoki really a -10 baserunner?

9:35	Paul Swydan: No that was a bug that I believe was fixed. Either way, Aoki isn’t that good.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: issues on the basepaths running into outs.

9:36	Comment From Rated Rookie Which Astros prospect is more likely to skip Triple-A: Correa or Appel?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Appel, but there’s a good chance that both will.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Skip will always be the pitcher. I think hitters should all spend a month in AAA seeing real breaking balls.

9:37

Comment From baseball econ
The Red Sox reportedly have up to $60 million to spend this offseason, limited only by the luxury tax threshold, but don’t the traditional small-market teams have similar resources with revenue sharing and spiraling television revenues? MLB teams still have a range of resources, but that range has contracted considerably.

9:38

Paul Swydan: Lot of things going on here. First, MLB teams do have similar resources, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to use them. Second, the Red Sox have about $60 million TODAY if they don’t want to blow through the luxury tax, but a) they could trade guys like Cespedes to free up cash, and b) who the hell know if they’re going to stay under the luxury tax threshold? They say they want to stay under it every year, but it doesn’t always work out that way.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s smaller, but large market teams are finding work arounds, spending a ton in the DR, spending more on MILB FA, front office personel

9:39	Paul Swydan: Third, this is the subject of Dave Cameron’s piece in the THT Annual, so stay tuned for that!

9:39	Comment From True North Do you think AA pulls any significant moves this offseason? With Pompey, Stroman and Sanchez all emerging as potential regulars, what kind of additions should the Jays be targeting?

9:39	Paul Swydan: They need to solve second base, just like last season.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Also, just more pitching depth. Perhaps not a frontliner, but they don’t really have any Aaron Harang kind of guys. They need some of that.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: 2B is obvious, but where ever they can make a step up.

9:40	Comment From Capt. Pils Are there any long-time minor leaguers that you think could go all Steven Pearce on us and have a good, late-blooming career?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Dean Anna

9:41	Paul Swydan: Not off the top of my head, but the point I’d like to make is that Pearce was always a good major league hitter, he just had never been healthy.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Engle Beltre also

9:41	Comment From Rated Rookie Which excellent-when-healthy-but-injury-prone Reds starter would you prefer to see your favorite team acquire, Mat Latos or Johnny Cueto?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Cueto.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Cueto

9:42	Comment From Ryan How much cash do the Red Sox have to spend after accounting for arbitration raises this year?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Huge velo loss with Latos

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul

9:42	Paul Swydan: I believe the $60M took arb raises into account. Either way, they have some money to spend, enough for a front line guy or two.

9:42	Comment From john Murphy to Jays for what?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think the Cuddyer deal signals that we can cross Murphy and Niese off of trade lists.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure really.

9:43	Comment From Gila Monster Do you think it is a problem that small market teams are forced to tear it down to rebuild while big market teams don’t have to do this?

9:45

Paul Swydan: No, because small market teams don’t need to do this. All of these teams are owned by billionaires. That they choose to operate the teams at a profit is obviously up to them, but none need to, and I am not really going to feel bad for any of them when they don’t want to pay the players in their system who deserve to get paid more than they want to spend.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: That is not really the truth, small market just has to be will to sell high on their stars to keep re-tooling and the big market need to stay away from albatross contracts for players they have to play (Yankees and the Dodgers OF).

9:46	Comment From Rick Are the steamer projections for pitchers a bit buggy right now? As an example, Homer Bailey seems to be missing from the Reds depth chart entirely.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Consider it noted.

9:46	Paul Swydan: That’s more likely an issue on our end than on Steamer’s.

9:47	Comment From john So Murphy walls for nothing at the end of the year when the mets miss y the playoffs again? They certainly aren’t (and shouldn’t) extend him

9:47	Paul Swydan: Or until the All-Star break if the team flops. Which is of course possible.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: You heard it here first, the Mets didn’t make the playoffs

9:47	Comment From Josh Paul, the owners RARELY every spend their own money on contracts. Payroll comes from revenue, and small market teams don’t generate as much revenue.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Thanks for clueing me in on that. Doesn’t mean that is the way teams HAVE to operate.

9:48	Comment From Rated Rookie Swydan (Red Sox) and Zimmerman (Royals) perfect illustrations of the small market v. big market baseball debate.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yes, the small market Royals, owned by the guy who was the president of one of the largest corporations on the planet.

9:49	Comment From Josh Next time you buy a business, operate it at a loss then…..

9:49	Paul Swydan: LOL. The next time I’m a billionaire, I’ll do just that.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: You need to start a pizza chain

9:50	Comment From Zach 3 scenarios for the Tigers: VMart for four years + Aoki or similar corner guy, Melky Cabrera for four years and a rotating cast of DH scrubs, or sign Headley/Sandoval and move Castellanos to DH.

9:50	Paul Swydan: None of those things is likely to happen unless the Tigers ignore the luxury tax threshold.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Well, OK, maybe the second one could happen. The Melky one.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I think VMart comes back with some OF scrubs

9:51	Comment From Bazeball Barbie What kind of trade value does Derick Norris have for the A’s?

9:52	Paul Swydan: He’d have a good amount of value, but given Jaso’s concussion issues, I have no idea if they can afford to part with him or not.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: He is a weird case. I think he will be most productive with As.

9:53

Comment From Phil
Is there any middle-to-top tier free agent that you could see the Orioles actually landing? I feel like their window is only so long with the control of players like Machado and ages of players like Jones and Hardy counting down, and every offseason they are not in a position to make a big splash. Being mid-market is so tough. It doesn’t help that I feel they are buying into the loyalty to Markakis and really fell in love with Cruz’s overachievement.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I could see Melky Cabrera to Baltimore. I think that makes a lot of sense.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Morse

9:54	Comment From Shep Carlos Martinez will be used by the Cards as a reliever. Free Carlos Martinez??

9:54	Paul Swydan: Indeed. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I trust the Cards and if they don’t think he can start, I would believe it.

9:55	Comment From Scott Cubs and Nats discussing Zimmermann deal.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Well that explains all those questions in the queue. I’ll say Baez. Second base is the Nats’ only real hole.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I saw that, I will believe when it happens. I think there is a ton of discussion going on it AZ

9:56	Comment From Greg Red Sox have 6 OFs, who survive the cut?

9:56	Paul Swydan: No idea. I know who I would want to survive.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Who knows, I think it could be any of them if they have the offers to move the other ones.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I would want Mookie, Rusney and if he’s healthy Victornio, as my starting outfield, with Bradley as the fourth. If Victorino won’t be healthy, then hang onto Cespedes.

9:58	Comment From Greg is that the same Carlos Martinez the Sox signed that MLB nixed the deal?

9:58	Paul Swydan: The very same.

9:58	Comment From john 1 yr zimmermann is worth baez

9:58	Paul Swydan: I think you mean isn’t, and I don’t know if he is or not, but I can’t see the Nats trading Zimmermann without getting one top piece back.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I have little faith in Baez, but the trade could happen.

9:59	Comment From Kelvin So…I just wanna point out that the Braves currently have BJ, Johnson, Wood and Wang on their 40 man roster.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Consider it pointed out!

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Keeping it “After Dark”

9:59	Comment From Gila Monster Part of my point was that MLB Draft is such a crap shoot that teams can’t turn the franchise around without being awful. You needs tons of lottery tickets compared to the NFL,NHL, or NBA