FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/14/17

by Paul Swydan

November 14, 2017

7:38	Paul Swydan: In which sport that plays a decent number of games do you think it’s the hardest to win 10+ games in a row? MLB (46.5% \| 68 votes) NBA (9.5% \| 14 votes) NHL (26.7% \| 39 votes) Pro soccer (MLS/EPL/etc.) (17.1% \| 25 votes) Total Votes: 146

7:40

Paul Swydan:

Which of Dave Cameron’s top 10 free agents would you *least* like your team to sign?

Yu Darvish (1.8% | 3 votes)

J.D. Martinez (1.2% | 2 votes)

Jake Arrieta (17.1% | 28 votes)

Carlos Santana (3.6% | 6 votes)

Eric Hosmer (45.3% | 74 votes)

Lorenzo Cain (4.9% | 8 votes)

Wade Davis (3.0% | 5 votes)

Mike Moustakas (10.4% | 17 votes)

Zack Cozart (11.0% | 18 votes)

Alex Cobb (1.2% | 2 votes)

Total Votes: 163

4:29

Paul Swydan:

Which of Paul’s 10 players he’s excited to watch are *you* most excited to watch in 2018?

Rafael Devers (26.5% | 42 votes)

Gio Gonzalez (1.2% | 2 votes)

Dellin Betances (12.0% | 19 votes)

Nomar Mazara (10.7% | 17 votes)

Jon Gray (12.0% | 19 votes)

Jose Berrios (18.9% | 30 votes)

Dee Gordon (1.8% | 3 votes)

Mike Zunino (5.0% | 8 votes)

Lorenzo Cain (3.1% | 5 votes)

David Wright (8.2% | 13 votes)

Total Votes: 158

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:03	Beni and the Betts: Being a Red Sox fan, I can’t say I’m too upset with this, but it seems like Judge is being slighted in the MVP race, no? He leads Altuve in most relevant categories (both old fashioned and sabermetric) and yet most writers are acting like Altuve is a no doubter. What say you?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I don’t think either of them are no doubters, but I would agree that the media narrative has landed on Altuve’s side. We’ll see Thursday I guess. I honestly don’t care either way.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Altuve is going to get the vote based on his career to this point.

9:04	Paul Swydan: MLB should be organizing an awards show night and making a big deal out of everything. Instead they drip, drip, drip the awards, like we’re children who can’t process multiple pieces of information at once. It’s infuriating.

9:05	Jason: What do you think about Yoan Moncada so far?

9:05	Paul Swydan: So far, so good. He’s gotta cut the strikeouts and improve defensively, but he doesn’t look like a bust by any stretch.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: As expected. Some swing and miss but is athletic enough to be productive like Byron Buxton

9:06	Jackson: What’s the right price to pay for Giancarlo Stanton for a big-market team like the Red Sox or Giants? A major league-level player like Jackie Bradley Jr.? A lottery ticket prospect or two? Is he just straight up not worth it?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think the price would certainly include Bradley. I think the price is high enough that it won’t be worth paying for any team. The opt-out may have already killed his trade value. I expect him to stay in Miami.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s worth something but I’m not sure if anyone has broken down his surplus value

9:07	Raul Mondesi Relaford: Mets have about $30 million to spend this winter. Is trading for Stanton and signing nobody else the best use of that?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Depends obviously on what they’d have to give up. But given that they already have good players in the outfield corners (assuming full health for Conforto) I don’t think so, no.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: No, they should look a more long term. Also, they need a ton of parts, not just one.

9:08	Mario mendoza : What goes on in a manager job interview?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I would imagine it’s pretty close to a normal job interview.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea

9:09	joe: How many at bats does Ohtani get in 2018*?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 200.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d not be surprised if it is even more. His batting comps are better than pitching ones using translations

9:10

harmony: Would two years of righthander Dellin Betances with a projected 2018 salary of $4.4 million and two years of outfielder Aaron Hicks with a projected 2018 salary of $2.9 million be enough to offset the three years and $68.5 million remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract if the Yankees packaged the three in a trade?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Again, would depend on the player the Yankees are seeking, but I see no reason to dump Ellsbury’s money. He was a league-average player this year, and giving away two assets to make his contract go away seems counter productive. The Yankees can afford the payroll hit.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Just drop Ellsbury if you don’t want the contract. The Yankees need the other two, especially Betances

9:12	Devil Ray Jay Johnson: How much will the Red Sox regret giving Hosmer 6 years and at least $120 million?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Well, probably less than they’d regret giving him the $150M he’ll probably get.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:13	Devil Ray Jay Johnson: A rebuilding team should go “Wilin Rosario? Sure, why not,” right?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Absolutely. I was a little mystified that he had to go overseas to begin with.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, nothing to lose

9:14	Hannah Hochevar: Neil Diamond isn’t even from Boston

9:14	Paul Swydan: Hannah checks in with an important note.

9:14

John Olerud: I was hoping you guys could help me with some baseball research I’m trying to conduct. Specifically, I’m trying to accumulate a comprehensive sampling of all those players who performed at an elite level during their short-lived peak (maybe for a few years, give or take), but were otherwise mostly replacement-level (or worse). As an example, I present Kelly Gruber. Any advise on how (or through what site/database) such a search could be done? Would you say WAR is the best stat to go by?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Jeff is better at questions like these than me, but I would try to filter by guys with big variations between their best season and their second and third-best seasons.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s easy for peak vs average

9:16	Paul Swydan: I wrote about something similar to this once, regarding Tommy Harper. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-speedy-tommy-harper-and-the-random…

9:16	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Matt Chapman ($4) or Jeimer Candelario ($1) in deep AL dynasty OBP league?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Oooh, tough one.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Finding the second best season takes a little more programming

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m a Chapman fan

9:16	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Chapman too.

9:17	$11 Worth of Taco Bell: Over the next three years, which Royals free agent posts the most WAR?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Lorenzo Cain.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Three … it will be close between Moose and Cain

9:18	weezy: fantasy dynasty question: I’ve got Pham, Conforto, Olson, Hoskins and Bellinger all at $1 in a 12-tm OBP & SLG league. Pick one to kick back in?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Pham based on his age

9:18	Paul Swydan: Pham and Olson have similar projections, but Olson is a lot younger. I believe in Pham, but you’ve got a good list here. Unless Conforto isn’t going to be healthy, I think you have to kick Pham back.

9:18

Rich Gedman, All-Star: My long term standard keeper league has devolved into a situation where everyone either goes into full sell or full win now mode by mid-May because any wait-and-see strategy ends up resulting in you falling too far behind to compete that year and missing out on all decent keepers needed to contend the next year. We can keep up to 7 major leaguers and 3 minor leaguers. Is there anyway to fix the problem aside from cutting the number of keepers (which keeps getting voted down)?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Absolutely.

9:19	Paul Swydan: You put in penalties for the teams that come in the bottom three spots.

9:19	Paul Swydan: It’s better if you can make those penalties related to the league, like, say, the team that finishes last only gets 4 keepers, second-to-last 5 keepers, and third-to-last, 6 keepers.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree. Reverse draft order by those not in the money. In Tout, the bottom teams get less FAAB the next season

9:20	Paul Swydan: But, if you can’t get people to agree to that, and you have an in-person draft, you can also institute penalties like last place has to cater draft weekend food, and next-to-last has to cater draft weekend beer/alchohol/drinks.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Bottom line – you have to incentivize people to compete all year.

9:21	Superfluous H: So apparently everyone went nuts over an ‘unnamed baseball source’s saying Stanton will veto the Cardinals and Boston. How much stock do we put in this? And do the Marlins even trade him if the headliner is Helios?

9:21	Paul Swydan: None whatsoever. He’ll go where he’s traded because that city will be “not Miami.”

9:22	Paul Swydan: He may use his partial no-trade to extract some money or perks in the deal, but he’ll go wherever he’s traded, IF he’s traded at all.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t follow the rumors. I just wait for the dust to clear

9:22	Rich Gedman, All-Star: What do you think is still your biggest blind spot when you go into a draft?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Paying for Saves. I just hate doing it.

9:23	Paul Swydan: The only blind spot I have is that I sometimes forget to account where players I DON’T want should go in the draft/for how much they should go for. But, not to sound like a dick or anything, but I’m pretty good at drafting at this point. 🙂

9:23	$11 Worth of Taco Bell: I see that on his manager of the year ballot, Jeff Zimmerman misspelled Yost.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m better in an auction because I allow a $$$ amount

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Three times

9:24	Paul Swydan: The venn diagram of “Jeff Zimmerman” and “spelling” doesn’t have a lot of overlap. 😛

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I was a little surprised no one voted for Farrell

9:24	Guest: Do Ryu or Mccarthy bring back anything useful to LA? I feel like a borderline contender like brewers, oriels, twins etc… Could probably use them much more than dodgers would

9:24	Paul Swydan: I doubt it. Better to hang on to those guys and let them serve as depth pieces.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, they are good pieces for the 10-day DL and Ryu had a surprisingly productive season.

9:26

pinstripe: Jeff recently came out with a closer look at the pitch framing data and about how from this year to last year the data has become significantly less varied. My question to you is what do you think is the cause of the lower standard deviation? Is it because there is more data so with a larger sample there is a relatively lower varience or is it because the leauge has used the data to employ better framers/catchers just are working on their skill to be better framers?

9:26	Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Other Jeff and the main cause is that the really bad framers (Doumit) lost their jobs

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Higher floor

9:27	Paul Swydan: Oh. My fault, sorry.

9:27

Giant Gonzales: Evening Paul, want to help out a former pro wrestler with some stats homework? I’ve mapped out a discrete probability chart and binomial probability for hits in 3, 4, and 5 AB games. I’m confused as to how I’m supposed to interpret this, and I feel like even though the binomial is close in expected hit vs observed, that it doesn’t meet all the conditions for a binomial experiment. Why is this so goddamned confusing? Thanks if you have the time.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I appreciate that you would turn to me, but this is a better question for Jeff. I’d be just as lost as you are.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: And I am lost also. I’m not a binomial guy

9:29	Big Joe Mufferaw: PREDICTION! Mark it down. Judge will up his FB% and hit 62 HRs next year. (hit .270 as well, with a ton of walks).

9:29	Paul Swydan: Noted, Big Joe.

9:29	Paul Swydan: BTW, if anyone can help Giant out, holler at us.

9:29	Adam: Why wouldn’t Boston target a guy like Votto? I guess, we’ll, I don’t know they aren’t.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Votto has said numerous times that he’ll never waive his no-trade clause.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Votto has a no trade clause and will use it

9:30	Adam: Another Reds’ question, if don’t mind… Is Eugenio Suarez’ breakout legit? Does he build on it?

9:31	Paul Swydan: It might be legit, but I don’t see him building on it. Best he’ll do is maintain it, and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on that either.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it can be but not sure if he can build on it. The Reds infield is getting to the point where they may need to move a body or two.

9:32	Stevil: Think the Yankees will bring in someone to DH, or use Ellsbury or Austin?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Cashman said today that Ellsbury is competing to be a backup outfielder. He might see time at DH, but I doubt that he’s the priority there.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will rotate bodies through the spot. I would not lock it down right now

9:33	Canada is pretty good: As a yankee fan, I’m all in on Otani. How upset should I be if they don’t get him, because in my mind, he will sign with “us”?

9:34	Paul Swydan: You shouldn’t be upset at all. It’s a sport, and you don’t control the outcome.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Not at all. He’s likely going some where else.

9:35	gibs: % chance we see Vlad Jr in the majors next year?

9:35	Paul Swydan: 40% ???

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think if he’s healthy and he keeps progressing, he’ll get a call-up at some point, even if just for a cup of coffee.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: 50% for a late appearance

9:36	Michael: I don’t think the Yankees would necessarily want to do this, but would a trade of Ellsbury + 2-3 of their top 15 prospects for Stanton be plausible?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Marlins want to move Stanton to cut payroll, and there isn’t enough of a cut between Stanton and Ellsbury’s salary to make it worthwhile for Miami.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:36

Erik: Shouldn’t the “Hosmer is overrated” narrative be changing? He just put up over 4 WAR and is only 28 years old. It’s not often you can find players on the right side of 30 in free agency, and $150 million only buys about 16 or 17 WAR these days. Is it really a stretch to see him put up 16 WAR over the next 6 years (just 2.7 per season)?

9:38	Paul Swydan: He put up 9.9 WAR in his first seven seasons, so yeah, I think it’s a stretch for him to put up 16 in his next 6. Sorry.

9:38	Paul Swydan: He’s NEVER had consecutive productive seasons.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: No. 1B only. Best year ever so probably heavy regression coming. 2017 was the outlier

9:38	Paul Swydan: Not sure why that would change as he gets older.

9:38	Fangraphs lurker: AWWWWW YEEEAAAHHH!!!! FANGRAPHS AFTERHOURS….BYOB!!!!!

9:40	Paul Swydan:

9:40	Erik: Will Marvin Miller make the Hall of Fame?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Someday he will. Will be cold comfort to his family, I’m sure, but I believe he’ll get there.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Hope so but doubt it

9:41

Gary: Independent of where he’s probably *going* to wind up, Otani has to be more valuable in the NL, right? Whatever at-bats he has as a pitcher are going to be immensely valuable, relative to (presumably) the DH at-bats he’ll have in the AL.Off the top of my head I would guess 100 ABs with a 120 wRC+ as a pitcher are worth more offensive WAR than 400 as a DH…thoughts on this?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I go back and forth on it. Honestly, it all just depends on how he wants to be used and how the team who signs him wants to use him.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I just ran the number for Travis S and Otani as a pitcher hitting in the NL was generate ~3 RAA or .3 WAR. Some help but not a ton.

9:42	Henry: Ottoneu fangraphs, is $11 Jean Segura, $6 Trey Mancini, $3 Eugenio Suarez, and $5 Addison Reed for $42 Nolan Arenado a fair trade?

9:43	Paul Swydan: No, not even close. That’s a pu-pu platter trade. You could get all four of those guys on the waiver wire for the same prices.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: No, keep the big name for now

9:44	Joe: Realistically, what could the Os get for Machado?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably a top 10 prospect or a couple lesser ones

9:45	Paul Swydan: Not much. One good prospect and a couple low level guys? With him only being a year from free agency, teams will not be incentivized to trade for him unless he indicates that he’s willing to sign an extension, and I see no reason why he would do that given that he’s waited this long.

9:45

banana stand: If a team perpetually rebuilt, with no desire to be good, eventually would they be a super team? Like if any time a young player performed well, the team traded them for more future value, would eventually the farm system get so good that they would be expected to be a super team? I guess another way to phrase the question is when you trade current value for future value, are you increasing your organizationally controlled value, and if you perpetually trade current for future value, what are the limits for how good the team can be?

9:45	Paul Swydan: The Marlins say hi, and no.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: No on the limits of the team.

9:46	Sabr man: Fangraphs has Judge clutch value at -3.71 and Bellinger at +0.85. What does this reveal? How many clutch hits did one have versus the other?

9:47	Paul Swydan: It doesn’t reveal anything other than this was what happened in the 2017 season.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing

9:47	Lance Biggerstaff: Re: big years. Darin Erstad!

9:47	Paul Swydan: Thanks Lance.

9:48	LegallyEagle: Stanton’s contract vs. JD Martinez’s request for 7/210…gotta go with Stanton right?

9:48	Paul Swydan: No, not really. A) Martinez isn’t going to get that much, and B) Martinez still only costs money. Stanton also costs players.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but I’m a huge Stanton fan

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Strasburg and Stanton debuted on the same day.

9:49	Laserpug : The Tigers certainly won’t be active with major free agents. Who could you see them active with?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Minor league free agents, and guys with promise who have failed time and again. The Wilin Rosario’s.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Retreads. Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with one like they did with JD

9:51	Dr Evil: Will baseball allow me to sign Hosmer for only the odd years and loan him out for the even years? Odd year +11.8 WAR, even years -1.8 WAR

9:51	Paul Swydan: It’s a bold strategy.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Give it a shot

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Saberhagen was the same way as a Royal

9:52	pinstripe: I believe that Trout and Harper also debuted the same day

9:52	Paul Swydan: Really?

9:52	Paul Swydan: That’s crazy.

9:53	Paul Swydan: No, that’s not right, sorry.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Trout July 8, 2011

9:53	Paul Swydan: Harper April 28, 2012

9:53	Paul Swydan: Trout’s 2012 debut was April 28, but he had played some in 2011.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Close though!

9:54	billsaints: Noises being made about the Rays trading Archer. Is this the peak time to trade him. Weak FA pitching and decent amount of contract left. Would you do it as a Rays GM needing to cut salary?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I mean, when AREN’T there noises about the Rays trading Archer? I feel like we got Archer trade questions all of last offseason too.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it really depends on the offer. Archer has yet to be elite.

9:55	Henry: Calhoun is projected to outproduce Bellinger, Puig, and Conforto in the Auction Calculator. Is that actually legit? Seems high for a player with 13 major league games.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Well, Steamer is high on his ability to hit homers. Whether that plays out or not remains to be seen, but he could be a “more valuable in fantasy than in real life” guy.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: PA issues? Hoskins was way down because he was at 300 PA. We are still working out the playing time issues with our depth charts

9:57	bosoxforlife: Am I thinking correctly? I thought one-dimensional sluggers were about to be drummed out of baseball and now J.D. Martinez is asking for $30 M/ year. What’s the story?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Well, when your one dimension is really, really, really good, you can ask for that. I think it also has to do with it being a really down market, so Martinez stands out more than normal. But I agree, I think his asking price is pretty high.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: He can play acceptable OF defense which helps his value a ton.

9:58	Erik: Do they underlying numbers not support Hosmer as a legitimate swing change guy?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Maybe, but as Dave said, you have to be willing to accept that he’ll actually change his swing. That’s a big bet to make. I wouldn’t want to make it, myself.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: They do but he’s stated he won’t change. It may take a couple bad season find out that leading the league in GB% is not a good thing