FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/18/14

by Paul Swydan

November 18, 2014

5:32	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to cram some baseball down your cramholes. In the meantime, gorge on the polls I’ve set up! See you soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Let’s get it.

9:00	Comment From Pale Hose Can we can an after dark preview of the Hardball Times Annual? Is there a tentative release date?

9:00	: Hi everyone and useful info for the off season.

9:01	Paul Swydan: That’s Jeff’s way of saying he’s already sick of the offseason. 🙂

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: This is all Paul’s baby. I have seen the cover.

9:01	Paul Swydan: As for the book should be available for purchase later this week. It’s chock full of so much goodness. Jeff’s article is one of the best, of course, and leads the analysis section.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Sullivan’s article is amazing. Steve Treder’s is awesome. Blengino, Eno, Cameron, I could go on and on.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I will have a post up either on THT Live or at FG when it goes up on Amazon.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Thank you for asking, btw!

9:02	Comment From Pete Cabeza At ROUGHLY what dollar value do Ottoneu players become too expensive? My $22 Joe Abreu got allocated all the way to $40; maybe I should try to trade him?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Abreu at $40 is a steal. I’ll go up to $55 for a player. One thing I’ve found is that if I have a premium guy at $55, he’s probably not going to go for much cheaper next year, so I might as well just keep them.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: $40 is fine with inflation I think.

9:03

Comment From Matt
Am I the only one not entirely convinced that a platoon of Cecchini and Middlebrooks couldn’t work decently for the Red Sox? I’m certainly not high on either, but I feel Cecchini could be a 2014 Matt Carpenter-lite and Middlebrooks a limited role player. I’m just not sure Pablo Sandoval would be worth the price for the marginal value he would provide over that platoon. Especially when that money could be better spent on pitching.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t trust either of the pair (Middle and Cec) and would go with Sandoval.

9:05

Paul Swydan: Here’s the problem – you can’t waste two positions on third base. You need a utility infielder, or someone who is a good pinch hitter.

If the Sox are going to talk about carrying just 11 pitchers, OK, I’ll entertain that platoon. But I’m not holding my breath on that. Or Cecchini being anywhere near Carpenter good.

9:05	Comment From Guest What big move can the Cardinals make for 2015?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Seriously? They just made it!

9:06	Paul Swydan: The only other big move I see would be signing hometown guy Max Scherzer. But I doubt that happens.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think anything will be bigger than Heyward

9:06	Comment From bmax Yelich or Heyward in a 18 team 5×5?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Heyward

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I may disagree. I am not sure Heyward is much better in fantasy.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I’m all in on Heyward for next year. I think the Braves were messing with his offensive game. I expect him to be much better next season.

9:07	Comment From Dylan The Cardinals are interested in Jon Lester. Lester going to the Cardinals would probably be more tragic to Red Sox fans than him going to the Yankees.

9:07	Paul Swydan: It would? Not for me it wouldn’t.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Not really, having to face him would be bad.

9:08

Comment From Logan Davis
Last year, the Mariners went hard for Tulowitzki before signing Cano. This year, they’re in on Hanley and apparently gunned for Martin and Martinez. It seems like their new strategy, in light of how hard it is to convince a given FA to come to Safeco, is to acquire an impact talent regardless of current strengths and then sort out the roster later. Do you approve?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t DISapprove. If anything, it allows them to keep all of their assets, because all they’re spending is money.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t worry about too many people at a position, especially at this point of the off season.

9:09	Paul Swydan: WOW, seeing Billy Butler did indeed get 3/$30 from the A’s.

9:10	Comment From Wrens Bleeding Hart John Lester lives 30 mins away from Turner Field. What’s it take to get him to make Turner Field home?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Good for him.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: 6 years and over $200M

9:10	Paul Swydan: The most money by far. Atlanta is going sideways at best, so Lester will need the $$$. Don’t let any hometown discount talk fool you – if he was going to take an insulting offer, he would have already re-signed with the Sox.

9:11

Comment From john
maybe you can explain this to me… a lot of people on here, including jeff earlier today, seem to think the dbacks make a good fit with the mets… And yet, even looking at the projections, I fail to see how either didi or owings is really a significant enough upgrade over flores to be worth dealing a cost controlled pitcher that dbacks want

9:12	Paul Swydan: Well, on paper, they’re not much different, but with Flores, we’re not sure if he can hang at shortstop defensively. Didi or Owings would be more of a sure thing.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I didn’t say that, if was the other Jeff. It all depends on the pitcher in question.

9:13	Paul Swydan: So many Daves and Jeffs.

9:13	Comment From Stoskerfan I keep hearing Jason Castro for Starlin Castro is it a fit? What would it take to get russell from chicago?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think Starlin is worth a good bit more than Jason Castro. It’s a good framework for a deal tho.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Starlin’s contract is nice and should bring back some value. I think he will be a Brave though. It would take quite a bit to bring Russel over.

9:15	Comment From Guest Could the Rangers be a Dark Horse for James Shields? The team should have more luck with health and isn’t bad. But they need another quality starter and they should probably do something after their AWFUL 2014.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I could see it. Rotation behind Darvish is still definitely a problem.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Shields is a good fit, but I see him as a consolation prize for another team missing out on Lester. I expect Shields to take his time in signing.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Agreed on that point.

9:16	Comment From Los Whose financial future would you like more: Stanton or Trout?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Trout’s.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Trout be a bit.

9:17	Comment From Michael How would you handle Rubby de la Rosa going into the next season? Has he shown enough to be pencilled in to a rotation spot?

9:18	Paul Swydan: As things stand RIGHTNOW, yes, he would be one of my five. But the Sox need to upgrade, and then open a competition for the last spot. I think this is Rubby’s last shot at the rotation, and if he doesn’t make it, it’s bullpen.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so.

9:18	Comment From Andy Salderson Do we, (the Mets), make the playoffs in 2015? How many games do we win? What is our rotation’s ERA?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I need to see more, but the Braves trading Heyward was a big feather in your cap.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: 40% chance, 83, league average

9:19	Comment From Ryan Braves fans seem to think that if they’d kept Heyward, and Justin and Gattis, they could’ve competed next year. That’s crazy right? Expecting a team with 0 available funds, no ready prospects, and 79 wins the previous year to compete, just because?

9:20

Paul Swydan: I don’t see it as crazy, especially if they get/got Beachy and/or Medlen back. Peraza can’t be worse than Uggla, and then good ole random variation could have them anywhere up to 85-87 wins, which is right in the mix for a playoff spot.

Also, it’s not like they didn’t compete this year. They were hanging right in the wild card race until late August.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: They will hopefully have better pitching at some point, but yes, they need to get significantly better and few options existed.

9:21	Comment From Big joe mufferaw Can you explain the lack of quality lead off hitters? Seems like not long ago the league was filled with speedsters that had high OBP like Henderson, knoblauch, lofton, biggio, ichiro, castillo, figgins, eric young, offerman, off the top of my head

9:22	Paul Swydan: Not sure I agree with the sentiment. Lot of good players here: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Chicks dig the long ball and they started lifting weights.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Calhoun, Gomez, Yelich, Carpenter, Span, Reyes, Gordon, Choo, Heyward, Pagan, Kinsler, Harrison.

9:23	Comment From Tom So, just so everyone knows, I live in Buffalo, my 6 foot fence is under snow, yesterday I had grass. Enjoy where you live.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Sorry!

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, at least you have the internet.

9:24	Comment From Rob With Joe Maddon now in Chicago, does Arismendy Alcantara’s fantasy value increase a bit? I can’t help but see him as a Zobrist type. He could log time at both MI positions as well as OF.

9:24	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, because I think was going to be his role anyway.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, who knows what is going to happen. It really wouldn’t change his value too much.

9:25	Comment From Wrens Bleeding Hart What version of Brock Holt do you believe in?

9:25	Paul Swydan: The crappy version.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:25

Comment From Lenard
I have Trout, Kluber, and Bryant as keepers (a tiered keeper system), a 5th rounder, a 9th rounder, and basically the entire 14th round of the draft (I sold out for trout and other improvements and won about $700 last year, so worth it). Can I compete next year or should I draft all upside in the 14th and hope a couple hit and trade for picks? The 14th rounders would be keepable for 2 years for an acquiring team

9:26	Paul Swydan: I need a clarification. Are you saying you ONLY have a 5th round pick, a 9th round pick and a bunch of 14s?

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I may limit myself to 28-year-olds and younger, but don’t totally go for youth, go for good players.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Get hitters with the early picks

9:27	Comment From Jim I don’t know if you despise comps or not, but who do you think is a reasonable comp for Giolito?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I don’t mind comps, but I’m not a minor leaguer, and I’ve never seen Giolito pitch, so I am unfortunately not the person to ask. You’d want Kiley for that. Maybe Jeff knows though…

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I not good with them at all, but I have heard a ton of good things.

9:28	Comment From Im New Here Is Ottoneu over my head. I want a competive keeper league type atmosphere, should I look elsewhere?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it will be over your head. Also keep in mind there are multiple scoring systems, so you don’t HAVE to play the linear weights scoring.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends more on the people in the league than the league type IMO. I would try to move into a long standing league

9:29	Comment From Dubya Do the Nationals go after Stephen Drew to fill their hole at 2B?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure why anyone would sign Stephen Drew to start at any position. As far as I’m concerned, he’s a bench player now.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Reports have Drew wanting to play SS, so he may sign as a 2B, but it will be late in the off season

9:30

Comment From Who_is_Zorbist?
What is Desmond Jennings worth as far as prpspects? He’s quietly well above average. They’re trying to cut payroll, and Kiermaier proved he’s defensively better. Offensively, well, time will tell. They also have to add 2011 1st round pick Mikie Mahtook to the 40 man roster. Mahtook is a RHB CF, and could platoon well with Kiermaier.

9:32	Paul Swydan: He’s a tough case. He’s not young, and he’ll be expensive soon, but like you said, he’s very solid. I don’t see him being moved this offseason though. I could see him being dealt in July after the Rays are out of it.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Not much really, the Rays need to look at a team in need for an OF because of ST injury.

9:33	Comment From Gorgonzola Blaupunkt When people say the Cardinals are in win now mode, they still have a solid foundation for the future, right? At the very least, they don’t have any albatross deals that screw them.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah, the Cardinals are quietly the closest thing we have to the 90s Braves right now.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are set up nicely right now. Nothing horrible any where on roster …. as long as Wainwrights elbow holds up

9:34

Comment From Lenard
Yes, essentially. Trout is keepable forever and cost me a 1,2, and 4 and other improvements took out the rest. I have a 5, a 9, about 8 (of 12) 14th round picks and about 4 15th round picks and the rest are late round. Kluber has 4 years of keeper eligibility and Bryant potentially has 8 years. My initial plan was to draft a bunch of hitting prospects in the 14th/15th and flip them (and possibly Bryant if someone blows my socks off) for earlyish picks (mid to late single digits) for the 2015 draft, flip Klubs for an early pick based on his keeper status and just suck for the year. But lately I’ve been having delusions of grandeur about competing/winning the league next year just to declare my supremacy. But I need you guys to talk me out of it. Sorry for the wall of text. 🙁

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think I’d go for the glory.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I never go into a season giving up, I just set limits. I like looking for 3 year players on the rebound. Don’t give up already.

9:36	Comment From Gargantuan Fart Who would say no with more emphasis to 7/160, Scherzer or the Cardinals?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Scherzer. That’s more or less what the Tigers offered him last year.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the total will be more.

9:37	Comment From Tyrone What happens to Mookie Betts in Boston OF logjam?

9:38	Paul Swydan: If he’s in Boston on Opening Day, he’ll be playing. No guarantee he makes it to April though. Could see him being traded, though I hope he isn’t.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: He will be playing some where, I think he is one of the for sures right now.

9:39	Comment From Matt A’s fan here and I’m certainly a little confused over the Butler signing considering historical usage of the DH, cycling through Moss, Vogt, Jaso, Coco. Any thoughts on this move? Buy-low?

9:39	Paul Swydan: One of our THT writers who is an A’s fan, Owen Watson, is in on the buy-low argument, that a swing mechanics fix could turn him back around.

9:39	Paul Swydan: We’ll see I guess. I certainly don’t understand why Butler started hitting everything on the ground, but I’m also not a hitting coach.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Some buy low and now some of the other pieces are movable.

9:40	Comment From Kelvin % chance Heyward signs with Atlanta in 12-16 months? Hart mentioned it as a possibility.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: 2%

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Atlanta and him are done.

9:41

Paul Swydan: I’ll say .000000000000000000001 percent. Never say never, but:

a) I expect the Cardinals to lock him up
b) Even if he hits the market, if he was going to sign with the Braves, he would have done it already. The Braves are cheap. This isn’t news. Hart has to talk a good game, but that’s all it is.

9:42	Comment From Sean Greg Holland for Jordan Zimmerman…win/win for both? Royals avoid overpaying for saves in arbitration

9:42	Paul Swydan: It’s an interesting proposal, but I can’t see the Nationals going for that.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Win only for the Royals. I don’t get it for the Nats.

9:43	Comment From Dennis How to do you feel about Yoenis for fantasy this year?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Same as last year. He’s OK in a 5×5 league, and a bench guy in an OBP league.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: HRs are OK and will have R and RBIs, so OK, but he is generally one of the most overrated players in the game.

9:44

Comment From Forsyth
Red Sox send Owens, Margot, Barnes, Marrero, and Middlebrooks to the Phillies for Hamels and $40mm, taking his AAV down to 14mm. Red Sox then sign Jon Lester to 6/138. Is this feasible and actually realistic? The Sox would have the best 1-2 in all of baseball for 37mm/year, and would still have the money to give Panda 6/108.

9:45	Paul Swydan: That’s a whole lot of wishful thinking, my friend. The Phillies have stated they want two major league ready players, and none of those guys qualify. Hamels isnt coming to Boston without Mookie in the deal.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think a team with get money with Hamels. His contract is fine. Look to the Samar-Russell trade as a starting point.

9:46	Comment From Ceej What does the La Stella trade do to Jose Peraza’s timetable? Is he worth getting excited about?

9:47	Paul Swydan: He graduated to Double-A at age 20 and didn’t see any drop in his offensive performance, so yes, I think it’s worth being excited about him. Not sure if the Braves will want him up in April or not. Way too early for that.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t get the La Stella trade at all and am not familiar with Peraza.

9:48	Comment From Guest Really??? Your going to lump in calhoun, pagan, harrison’s with lofton, henderson, knoblauch, biggio, and others that stole 40+ bases with near 400 obp?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:49	Paul Swydan: There were a lot of players listed in BJM’s question, a) and b) no one is suggesting that those guys are in a group with Lofton, Henderson and Biggio. Those are LITERALLY three of the best players in baseball history.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Doesn’t mean there is a dearth of good leadoff hitters right now. Not everyone needs to be Rickey Henderson.

9:50	Comment From Sean How about this: Ben Zobrist for Derek Norris?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I think we’re going to get Norris questions all winter, Jeff.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Essentially, Norris is the catcher that the A’s can’t really afford to trade. So I don’t see this. But it’s an interesting and likely fair proposal.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe …. I can actually see him in a couple of days. He is hosting a clinic right down the road from me.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Cool!

9:52	Comment From Andy Sanderson What do you think about this? Murph + Colon for Cespedes? or Bautsita and Reyes (We throw in a prospect)?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’m sorry, is the second part of that trade proposal Cespedes and a prospect for Bautista and Reyes?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Because that’s uh, that’s not happening.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: The 2nd won’t happen, the Jays are trying for a run and totally lopsided. The first one is OK, but I think the Mets get worse.

9:53	Comment From Andy Salderson No, I meant either Colon and Murph for Cespedes or Colon Murph and a Prospect for Bautsita and Reyes

9:54	Paul Swydan: That is not much better. That wouldn’t even be enough for ONE of Bautista/Reyes.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: None of them

9:54	Comment From Matt I think Andy is heavily overrating Bartolo Colon’s trade value

9:54	Comment From Terry Collins Who’s our ace? Degrom or Harvey>

9:54	Paul Swydan: Harvey.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: DeGrom, , but could change to Harvey after his first game. I will take the current healthy pitcher.

9:55	Comment From Avid Met Fan Who’s better for the next three years. Wright or Sandoval?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Sandoval.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:56	Comment From Matt Do you see the Blue Jays making another splash?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Not sure they need to. They need a 2B and a OF, but they don’t need to be splashy moves to fill those needs.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Not a huge one, but something. Possibly a #3-4 starter.

9:57	Paul Swydan: So…no, I guess not.

9:57	Comment From Avid Mets Fan By the way, I am the same person asking all these met questions

9:58	Paul Swydan: I know. We’re humoring you because we’re having a good time, but in the future you’d be well served to pick a username and stick to it.

9:58	Comment From Larry Bernandez that’s because you are the only mets fan

9:58	Comment From Theo in Chicago What would be a fair return for Grandal? I needs me a catcher!

9:59	Paul Swydan: I feel like it will be more than the Cubs want to pay. I would expect a pretty decent return for Grandal, who I believe is still pre-arb.