FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/20/15

by Paul Swydan

January 20, 2015

8:26	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here to cram some baseball down your cramholes at 9 pm ET! Or, at least I will be. To be fair, I haven’t talked to Jeff yet, and he’s a busy guy. While we’re sorting that out, take a look at some polls.

9:00	Paul Swydan: Whattup peeps! Long time no chat. Let us remedy this!

9:01	Comment From Guest Dean Anna should be a verb

9:01	Paul Swydan: Definitely let us know which players you think should be verbs.

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Carson agrees

9:01	Comment From Blueyays How was Banknotes Harper not in the verb poll?

9:01	Comment From Bip I’m gonna puig myself all over this chat

9:01	Comment From Pale Hose Puntoed

9:02	Comment From Guest My girlfriend thinks The New Enthusiast is entertaining,. Should I break up with her because she enjoys Cistulli’s work, or should I expect her to leave me for Cistulli before that occurs? TIA

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Interesting note, Mr. Gitty himself, Nick Punto, is one of the least hit batters in the league right now.

9:02	Paul Swydan: The latter? Definitely don’t break up with her if she likes Cistulli’s work, that means that she has set the bar really low and she’ll only be more impressed when she sees your work!

9:02	Paul Swydan: I think Jeff meant Gritty, FYI, not Gitty…

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: You right again Paul

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Not my night

9:03	Paul Swydan: Not with that attitude!

9:04

Comment From Guest
On one hand, Cubs gave up 2x 1.5 WAR and 3x 1.5 WAR seasons for 1x 1.5 WAR; on the other hand, if Valbuena for Fowler didn’t get it done and the Cubs preferred Fowler, who cares that they threw in Straily who likely doesn’t move the needle on another deal, won’t be worth much alone, and was looking to start the season at AAA after a rough stint with CHN. All to say, maybe these sort of surplus value analyses aren’t the best way to look at all trades?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Correct. Fit is a big part of every trade, and the Cubs simply didn’t need Valbuena nor Straily. So from that perspective, it’s a great trade for the Cubs.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but there is always the chance the Cubs could have gotten more.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: As Paul said, trading surplus is never a bad thing

9:05	Comment From Jeremy Take a wild stab at what a peak Bryce Harper season looks like.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I think this is the season he breaks out for real for real. I’ll go 30 HR – 15 SB.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: He may be peaked. It will be interesting if he could just finish a season healthy.

9:07	Comment From Guest Are you the very Jeff Zimmerman who threw 228.2 innings in relief for the Texas Rangers at the turn of the millennium?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I keep waiting for him to own up to it, but he never does.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: No unfortunately.

9:08	Comment From Tony G. I hope you will humor me and answer the following AL-only league question. Which is the more valuable commodity; a $13 Sonny Gray or a $18 Alex Cobb? Thanks.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Humoring people is what we do! I’ll say the $13 Gray. I like Cobb better, but I’d almost always rather have the cheaper SP.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Tough, I like Cobb over Gray, I am just not sure the amount. Cobb I guess

9:09	Comment From Strasburg to the Jays What are the odds Strasburg actually gets moved, and which team(s) have the right pieces to make such a deal happen?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Boston has the pieces for sure.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: 15% on the chances

9:11	Paul Swydan: I feel like the odds are pretty good that he gets traded. Plenty of teams HAVE the chips, but it’s more of a who is in the right space now to pony up for him. Boston for sure, Blue Jays, Dodgers, A’s, Padres (since they’re in on every trade), etc.

9:11	Comment From Andy Coco Crisp or Evan Gattis would be some pretty good verb-erized names.

9:11	Comment From Dylan While teams should always be trying to improve, is it more valuable now to try to pull away from the pack i;e the Nationals? It seems every team is shooting for the middle, maybe now is a better time to go all in?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think there is value in going for it, but there are unfortunately diminishing returns to going all in.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: For some teams, all in is aiming for the middle of the Pack, I think teams are trying to stay with shooting distance of the middle. The big markets though should try to aim big though.

9:13	Comment From El Guapo Puig or Harper for fantasy ball and for real ball….? Thanks for keeping baseball alive in the winter!

9:13	Paul Swydan: I love both guys, but Puig has a much better track record, so I’ll say him.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Puig for both

9:14

Comment From Sir Nerdlington
The new analytics movement seems to be play for the mean and hope for a swing to the high end of the error bar. Given that the amount of TV revenue swamps the economic impact of making the playoffs, does it justify paying for an additional WAR at $7M per when you can only stand to reap ~$10M through a deep playoff run? Should MLB provide greater TV rev share to teams that advance to the playoffs, thus ruining Selig’s parity wet dream?

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure if it would make a huge difference.

9:15

Paul Swydan: I’m not sure that playoff ratings would swing the balance of $/WAR that severely, because playoff TV ratings are not part of a regional cable package. All the playoff games are on national TV. There may be some carry over the next year, but probably not enough that you could bank on it.

As for the TV revenue sharing pie, I think that sort of goes against the whole point of the “sharing.” I’m not saying it’s a bad idea, but I think you’d have a whole new system on your hands.

9:16	Comment From El Guapo If you’re picking Indian’s SP’s, what’s the order after Kluber and how close together are they?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Carrasco, House, Salazar, Old guy just signed, and I am missing someone

9:17	Paul Swydan: Pretty close together. Carrasco & Salazar in one group and House & Bauer in the other, but House & Bauer lower down because they have less bulk. Not that Salazar has a ton, but that’s how I break it up.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Bauer after Salazar

9:18	Comment From Zeke Mowatt Chris Davis won’t ever be as good as he was in 2013. Chris Davis won’t ever be as bad as he was in 2014. Right?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Basically.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: yep

9:19

Comment From Guest
Inspired by a discussion in the comments: would a real time top 100 prospects list be logistically possible? Would it actually offer more insight than the twice annual update? Would simply improving how robust the twice annual updates are (especially the mid-year update) offer whatever benefits a real time list could?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: I think tiers are possible. Put the grades in, maybe the levels and rank from their. As anything changes it could update.

9:20	Paul Swydan: We talked about this last year. We felt that while it was possible, it wouldn’t provide too much new information. For instance, how far would you knock a guy down the list if he had his wrist broken by a HBP? He would still have the talent to be what he was before, right?

9:21	Comment From dino you think chris carter can at least match last years number because the last 3 weeks his batting average was bad even for him.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t worry about the last three weeks of his season having much influence on 2015.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I think ’15 will be about the same was ’14. He makes little contact and hits the ball hard when he does.

9:22	Comment From Pale Hose How do you guys get over the lack of baseball blues?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Preview material and the Royals playoff run helps. I have also been prepping for some scouting work which helps. College ball starts in less than a month.

9:23	Paul Swydan: To be honest, I don’t really think about it all that much until pitchers and catchers report. Until then, I have the THT Annual, and then the holidays, and then the NFL playoffs. I have the NBA to keep me company as well, but when the NBA All-Star break hits things get lonely.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Having kids helps. 🙂 They occupy most of my time.

9:23	Comment From Nuke If power wasn’t so down in baseball, would Sano be nearly as intriguing with his contact issues?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree, power is still power

9:24	Comment From Guest Kolten Wong should be a verb

9:24	Comment From Rated Rookie Pompeyed.

9:25	Comment From Nuke Verbiage: If I can, then Jorge Cantu

9:25	Comment From Mike Will we see a pitch clock in MLB in 2016?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, I think we will. I think we need to have a LOT of pitchers get hurt in AA and AAA and blame it on the pitch clock to avoid having it in the majors. Short-sighted thinking that won’t change anything. It’s awful.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: We’ll see, I kind of wonder if it is a ploy to get the slowest guys/teams moving. maybe it should only be used in Red Sox- Yankee games.

9:26	Comment From Rated Rookie Harper peaking at 22 seems like an unusual maturation curve.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Not according to Jeff’s latest aging curve research.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: times are changing and hitters are getting into the league with peak value. And immediately begin losing speed (and don’t really gain power magically)

9:29	Comment From Rated Rookie I found something to replace the snowcapped mountain photo.

9:29	Comment From Dan Theoretical: Is any player with only a year left on their contract ever worth a top-20 prospect in trade?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Theoretically, yes. But it’d have to be a rare player, and the top 20 prospect would almost certainly have to be a pitcher in the low minors.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but the one player needs to be at least a 5 win player

9:31

Comment From Greg
I recently had a dynasty baseball draft. It’s a 16-team league where you can keep the players forever and no costs are associated. During the draft I had the 10th pick, but I traded up for Bryce Harper. I then traded Harper and my 74th and 87th picks for Trout the 177th and 209th picks. The league is 10×10. Right move?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, get Trout is always the right move

9:32	Paul Swydan: You got Trout. You did good.

9:32	Comment From S Dot Best set of baseball cards from 1991-1995?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: None of them

9:32	Paul Swydan: No idea, but shout out to Patrick Dubuque’s baseball card tournament over at Lookout Landing.

9:32	Comment From AA Is Masai Ujiri the only safe GM in Toronto?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea

9:33	Paul Swydan: FWIW, I’m not sure that we can infer the interest in Duquette in Toronto as evidence that AA is on the outs.

9:33	Comment From Derek Do you like the Gallardo trade return for the Brewers?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Generally yes, but I really have dived into it yet.

9:33	Paul Swydan: No, that was a “go away” trade.

9:33	Comment From Deezy Could Souza be a big sleeper this year? Maybe a 20/20 type season?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Maybe. I feel like he’s already getting plenty of buzz though, and it’s only January.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I like him as a sleeper, but it seems everyone else does also.

9:34	Comment From bob arent the astros killing gattis’s value if they play him in left field?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Not sure Gattis has enough value that you worry about it getting killed in the field. If they can catch or DH him, great, but if not, just keep his bat in the lineup and figure it out later.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he could be a once a week catcher

9:36	Comment From L. Scott I am not high on the revamped Dodger offense. Aside from Puig, there is nobody to be excited about. I wouln’t expect Gonzalez to repeat 2014, and Grandal is a question. The rest of the lineup is mediocre including Kendrick.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Good note, thanks.

9:36	Comment From bob could the mlb limit the players from making both feet leave the box? would improve the time so they dont take a couple swings every time.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Average is fine

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yes, there are plenty of simple measures the league could be enacting like this. You fully step out of the box, you get an extra strike. Instead, they’re jumping to shot clocks. It’s a damn shame, but it’s the sort of solution they’re used to implementing.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I have seen the clock at work at the NBC tourney and nobody notices it at all. It is the pace for 85% of the league.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I don’t care. I don’t want to LOOK at one.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I don’t want to see it on my screen every pitch.

9:38	Comment From Boss Which catchers will you target in drafts this year?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I never watched it during the game.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Once it’s there, it’ll be in the little info box on TV all the time. You won’t be able to ignore it.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I have been doing some evals and there is like 5-5 top ones and then a huge drop off to a mess. I think it will be early (posey or Lucroy or last round or so)

9:40	Paul Swydan: As for catchers – Posey, Lucroy, Grandal, d’Arnaud, I like Miguel Montero for a little rebound action. Mesoraco!

9:40	Paul Swydan: Not a lot going on there.

9:40	Comment From joba Evan Gattis for fantasy catcher!!!!

9:40	Paul Swydan: Him too.

9:41	Comment From L. Scott Batters stepping out after each pitch and taking their time slows down the game waaaaaaaaay too much.

9:41	Comment From harry pitch clocks will encourage already incorrigible fans to yell, stomp, and scream. let’s not forget about the side-effects.

9:41	Comment From mtsw Is there a good argument against having relievers ride segways from the bullpen to speed up the game other than it being silly?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Yes, I believe batters are just as much at fault as are pitchers.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Bring back the bullpen cars

9:41	Paul Swydan: But maybe I’ve just watched too many Nomar and Tulo PAs.

9:42	Comment From LANNA Is the new season of Archer any good? I gave up in the middle of Pam’s coke binge last year.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen it

9:42	Paul Swydan: I mean, I loved Pam’s coke binge, so I guess I’m not the right person to ask, but yes, I am loving it as usual.

9:42	Comment From LANNA last spot in a keep-8 keep-forever league with Ks and BBs and 2Bs: Dozier, Carpenter, Harvey, SOLER?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Gotta be Harvey or Soler. Wouldn’t even consider the other two. I’d lean Soler for now, just because I’m not sure Harvey is red flag free quite yet…or that he ever will be.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Soler or Harvey …. Soler since he is not a pitcher who had TJS

9:43	Comment From Dan Will you please link the latest aging curve research?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Ya, Jeff, come on. Help the people out.

9:44	Comment From Zeke Mowatt The projections for Dee Gordon’s runs scored seem really low. Won’t batting ahead of Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton mean at least 80 for a guy that’ll steal at least 50?

9:45	Paul Swydan: We don’t take batting order into account in the projections. Mainly because you really don’t know where he’ll hit in the batting order. It’s pretty rare for the same guy to hit in the same spot 120 or more games in a season.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:45	Paul Swydan: Thanks Jeff!

9:45	Comment From Dr. Zizmor Rizzo-ed!

9:46	Comment From S Dot Are teams anticipating / aware of discussions of any future rule changes that benefit offense?

9:46	Paul Swydan: That’s a fascinating question. I honestly have no idea, but it would make sense that once Selig is out of office they’ll reduce the strike zone a little in an effort to get offense up a tick.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but I would not be surprised in the ball is unoffically a little harder at one point

9:47	Comment From mtsw If Bundy is ready for the O’s rotation in 2015 what happens to their other back of rotation options given that they already have too many starters? Is there a trade market for their expiring contracts (Norris and Chen)?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Increase the Zone?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I doubt there is much of a market for those guys. They seem like the kind of guys you keep around in swingman roles. Norris especially.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: We will see with Bundy. Wasn’t he dealing with an injury last season.

9:48	Comment From Zeke Mowatt I’ve always carried two catcher on my fantasy team to maximize the position and attempt to get my full 162 starts. Foolish strategy because it eats a roster spot?

9:48	Paul Swydan: It’s not a foolish strategy, but you have to luck into having two good catchers. Playing the games just to play them isn’t worth it if the other catcher hits .240 in the extra games your starter doesn’t play.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Might have been better than my plan to target McCann in all leagues least year.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Also consider that since so few catchers play every day that even with two catchers you may have multiple days where neither of your catchers is playing.

9:49	Comment From harry tulo games in 2015 over/under @ 100: what are you taking?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’ll be optimistic and take the over.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: over

9:49	Comment From Ryan Which team is most likely to out perform its Steamer projections?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Rangers, I think they may rebound quite a bit.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Rockies or Rangers. Cubs too.

9:50	Comment From Ryan Does Steamer projected WAR for pitchers operate on a different scale than the FG calculated WAR for each season? The Steamer projections for starters always seem low compared to ZIPS projections and starters’ past performances.

9:51	Paul Swydan: The Steamer WAR are predicated on our depth charts, and we try to be conservative about playing time, because being conservative is generally wise when it comes to playing time projections for pitchers. So blame us, not Steamer.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Innings pitched always seem to be a bit low.

9:51	Comment From harry can full steamer projections be downloaded off of fangraphs?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Sure. Just go here: http://www.fangraphs.com/pr… And click the “export data” button just above all the player stats.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, I luckily have access to the database

9:53	Comment From harry Rank Rizzo, Votto, Freeman, Goldy for ’15?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Goldy, Votto, Rizzo, Freeman

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Gold ….. Rizzo…………………..Votto…Freeman

9:54	Paul Swydan: Ya, I’m probably higher on Votto than I should be. It burned me last year.

9:54	Comment From Ryan Fan projections as a group seem very bullish on prospects, but are there any prospects for which you think the fans have especially outlandish predictions?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, but Jarrod Dyson’s is nuts.

9:55	Paul Swydan: They’re probably high on Mookie and Rusney. Not sure either will play enough to hit the 4+ WAR plateau.

9:55	Comment From Optimetstic Will Dillon Gee be considered a fallback option via trade for teams that don’t land Shields? What kind of return will the Mets get?

9:56	Paul Swydan: If the Mets were going to be able to get anything good for Gee, he’d have been traded a month ago.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Hamels and one of the Washington starters are the fall back plan.

9:56	Comment From S Dot Jeff Sullivan mentioned that he’d put Stroman in the top 6 pitchers in the AL. Do you agree?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Yup!

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: He still may be the best pitcher in the AL East

9:57	Comment From Tom Chris Sale: Steamer says 192 Innings and 4.7WAR; ZIPS says 189 Innings and 5.8 WAR. What gives?

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: may the numbers will change once the numbers are at FG, the baselines may be different

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: One sec……….

9:59	Paul Swydan: Home run rate looks lower on ZiPS.