FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/15/15

by Paul Swydan

December 15, 2015

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! OK, let’s do this!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:00

Billy Corman: There is a lot of substance behind the splash the Cubs have made this offseason. Cardinals seem to be missing out (I wouldn’t say they’re missing Cueto, Bob. *laughs*). All I read was the new TV contract money and $200mm for Heyward. Who’s the dance partner they take to the playoffs, Chris Davis?http://tpj.videonativesltd.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/office-space-the-bobs.png

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will end up with one of Gordon, Cespedes or Upton

9:02	Paul Swydan: Here’s the thing. They don’t NEED any one player. But I think they’d be wise to keep upgrading their bullpen.

9:02	Paul Swydan: VEEP!

9:02	Paul Swydan: The Mrs. has gotten me into VEEP recently, it is funny in that way that the Office was funny. Except about politicians instead of paper.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Also, no confessionals.

9:02	James: Has Szymborski crushed Cistulli yet?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I end every night with a prayer to this effect. Cistulli is like a kitten, he’s fluffy and he has nine lives.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: We could only be so lucky

9:04	Mike: Now that Heyward is off the market, who’s next to sign out of Upton and Cespedes?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Gordon

9:05	Paul Swydan: I tend to agree with Jeff re: Gordon, just because he’s had the most smoke. But I could see Cespedes deciding quickly as well, so of the two you listed I’ll say him.

9:05	Jorge Soler: Where do I play next year?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Whoa, in a ballpark, I hope!

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Outfield, the results could be rough

9:05	Paul Swydan: In all honesty, I just don’t buy the Cubs trading him.

9:06	Vic Romano: Over/Under – Cubs win 100 games in 2016.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under, only because betting on teams to win 100 games generally doesn’t work out well (see Nationals, 2015).

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Under. Not all the rookies will improve.

9:06

Jon: The Cubs have collected a large group of ‘Clayton Richard’s, middle relief guys that are somewhat effective the first time through the lineup, possibly with the hope of limiting their rotation (3-5) to two times through the lineup. Is this strategy better than just signing a Cueto-level starter (not that they were trying to)?

9:07	Paul Swydan: No, but like you said it wasn’t an either/or thing. I think signing Lackey plus a few of those guys is just fine.

9:07

The Dude: Theory: Kiley McDaniel is the reason the Braves are interested in Soler. The Braves are reportedly “smitten with him,” via Jerry Crasnick. Kiley ranked him as the 13th best prospect in MLB before the 2015 season. In a chat in July, when Soler was absolutely awful, Kiley remained bullish of him. In the midseason prospect update in August, as a graduated prospect, Kiley gave him a 60 FV. It seems like every Cubs/Braves rumor on MLBTR over the past month regarding Miller, Teheran, or Inciarte has been centered around Soler, unlike the persistent rumors with the Rays and Indians, who seem to covet Baez. Thoughts? On a related note, now that my finals are over, I have so much free time on my hand AND HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO DO WITH IT.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: They may not done yet and Baez could be traded

9:08	Paul Swydan: I think it will be very tempting to go back through Kiley’s content from last year and ascribe that he is the reason the Braves are hot after people he liked, but I think that does a disservice to the rest of their front office, who were in full rebuild mode before Kiley joined them.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Rumors are rumors. Let me know when a move is made.

9:08	cody k: What side would need to add something to Trout for Bryant, Soler, and Hammel to make it an even trade (Cubs?)? How much?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Cubs. At least a pitching prospect or two. Maybe more. It’s an interesting thing to think about though.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Schwarber at least for the Cubs

9:09	The Dude: Paul, who would you say is the best full-time writer on Fangraphs? How about the worst?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I’m probably the worst. As far as best goes, it depends on what kind of writing you’re looking for.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Why did you select that one Paul? It is all yours.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Hahaha, Jeff’s not touching it.

9:11	anon: How important is the handedness of the lineup? Specifically, right now the cubs have 1S (zobrist), 3 R (Bryant, soler, Russell), 4L (Heyward, Schwarber, Rizzo, Montero) penciled in the lineup, but if they swap Soler for Inciarte/Span etc, it becomes 2 R, 5L. Is that a concern?

9:11	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think it’s a major concern. You worry about batter handedness after defensive fit IMO.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: It all depends on if the players have larger than normal platoon splits.

9:12	anon: Are the Yankees gonna do anything significant, or twiddle their thumbs all offseason?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will make some minor moves.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Well, getting Starlin Castro was significant. Perhaps not splashy significant, but it certainly solidified their middle infield. Beyond that, I’m not expecting a significant free-agent signing. We’ll have to see how the trade market plays out.

9:13	bill: What will Chicago have to give up to get Ross or one of the Cleveland pitchers?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Probably Schwarber plus.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Baez is gone. They have some other prospect pieces.

9:15	anon: Christmas shopping done or haven’t started yet?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I started today!

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: About 95% done

9:15	anon: Who is a mediocre team that would benefit from tearing apart/hitting bottom and retry in a couple of years?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I’m tempted to say the Rays. They always seem to win 80ish games, but I’m not exactly sure where there that is getting them, and their prospect ranking hasn’t been as high recently.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: White Sox, Royals might

9:17	Minty: Sonny Gray is a real life stud. Would you consider him a fantasy ace, or is he in that next tier?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Next tier, I want to see him do it one more year before getting the Ace label

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure he’s a real life or fantasy stud, so I would say that next tier.

9:17	Minty: Do you like Giolito or Urias for next year and beyond?

9:18	Paul Swydan: So far, so good, yes.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, on both but love Urias

9:18

Guest: Astros are rumored to be in on Leake. He would be an excellent number 5. At first I was somewhat disgusted, but the more I think about it, the more he makes sense. Having a guy who will chew up 180+ innings every year at a slightly above league average rate has a ton of value to a young, contending team looking for consistancy, especially with a high powered offense. Do you think he would be a good fit with the Stros, and what contract would he get?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think that would be a good fit, but I’m not sure he is much of an upgrade over Scott Feldman, unless the Astros are worried about Feldman’s health.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is a fine as a #4 starter. People just should expect more. I see him at ~$12 a season

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: $12M

9:20	M’s Fan: Should I be concerned with the Mariner’s ‘meh’ projections in 2016 given the current must win status of the organization?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think you should be less worried about it this year than last year. One, Dipoto is a better GM than Jack Z. Two, since it’s Dipoto’s first year, he has more rope if things go poorly, and won’t have to make panic trades to save his job.

9:22	Paul Swydan: But in general, the M’s are still not great, especially with the Rangers and Astros being good again.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you should be worried. They have seemed to make a bunch of moves, but really have moved the needle much. And their two stars are a year older.

9:22	Compton: So there’s definitely a bot out there whose only task is to search Fangraphs for Jorge Posada, right?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: That is my guess

9:23	Paul Swydan: Yeah we talked about this during the Winter Meetings. The feeling is that we can make it stop, but we a) kind of think it’s funny and b) whoever is doing it could just re-start it if we stop it.

9:23	Ryan: You guys teased some ‘big news’ coming soon for FanGraphs in one of these after dark chats a few weeks ago… What was it? Did I miss it?

9:24	Paul Swydan: We did? Jeff? I don’t remember doing this. Or know what it’s in reference to.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Oh wait.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: None that I know of, but Paul is more in the know

9:24	Paul Swydan: Was it for kwERA on the leaderboards?

9:24	Paul Swydan: That might have been it.

9:24	Paul Swydan: I can’t think of what else it would be.

9:25	LJ: How would you evaluate the Red Sox’ offseason to date? If you were Dombrowski, what kinds of moves would you make over the course of the rest of the offseason?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’m loving it so far. He’s added a lot of quality pieces and has impacted the major league team very little. If he sticks to his word about no more major prospect trades, all the better.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they have done fine. Overpay for Kimbrel. I see them getting another starter via trade or free agency.

9:26	Trystan: Its my birthday and here I am on FG. I love this site. Anyway, How would you order the NL East Shortstops?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: /looking up Atlanta’s depth chart

9:27	Paul Swydan: Turner, Aybar, Galvis, Cabrera, Hechaverria? It’s not a good crop, let’s put it that way.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: That is ugly.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Galvis should never be #3 on any list

9:29	Paul Swydan: Turner and Crawford could certainly be the best in the division by the end of the season. Which says as much about them as it does the division.

9:29	Nick: I don’t know if you are hockey fans(or take non-baseball questions), but what are your thoughts on Patrick Kane’s consecutive games with point streak. As a hawks fan it really is an unbelievable season for him and it helps take the pain away from the white sox season this year.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t followed hockey in years. Sorry.

9:29	Paul Swydan: I only follow college hockey, and mostly just Boston University college hockey. I only know who that dude is because of the sexual assault stuff.

9:30	Chipmunknunchuks: The Cueto deal – what’s your take?

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, about what I expected.

9:30	Paul Swydan: I like it. I think he’s solid, and the cost wasn’t exorbitant, and it was a position of need for the Giants.

9:30	JKD: The Nats are still looking for a LH bat – Gordon? Parra? Ethier? Or someone more like Kelly Johnson?

9:31	Paul Swydan: They should move on Gordon or CarGo. I don’t think Parra or Ethier helps them that much.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul

9:31	W*: Would you recommend BU to someone looking to go into sports journalism?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. BU’s communications school is one of the best in the country. You should hit up Paul Flannery from a professor standpoint and/or Sarah Kirkpatrick and/or Tim Healey from a student standpoint. You can find them all on Twitter.

9:33

Paul: I had a discussion with a friend arguing Gregory Polanco has the potential to have the next Brantley, Pollock year and he should be a target. He has the speed and 30 SB is within reach. He improved his contact and subsequent batting average in the second half. 15 HRs is a possibility. If he can hit around .280 with some BABIP luck, he could score a lot of runs.

9:33	Paul Swydan: I don’t think this is out of the question, but I’m not banking on that kind of an improvement from him.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: There is the chance. I am still waiting for the Bret Lawrie breakout.

9:34	The Dude: You guys will have to chat louder. I’m wearing a towel.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Haha. Jeff won’t get that joke.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t remember that line, haven’t seen the movie in years.

9:35	Compton: Could the “big news” be new splits? Dave alluded to some changes to the splits on player pages back in a playoff chat.

9:35	Paul Swydan: It wasn’t the news I teased, I know that much, but we did talk about that in Nashville, and it is still in the pipeline. Stay tuned!

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: None that I know of

9:35	Jim: nerds

9:35	Paul Swydan: Pft, look who’s talking.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, so

9:36	Bed Jush: Left or center a bigger need for Giants? I say the latter

9:36	Paul Swydan: I would say center, just because you can’t count on Angel Pagan being healthy.

9:37	Paul Swydan: And because center is harder to fill.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I think concentrating on one is wrong. Look for an upgrade with available cash and trades and then improve the team.

9:37	kyle portela: do you think shelby miller’s 17th ranked soft hit % combined with 50%or so hits given to cf (gold glove defender there) will help him stay close to the numbers he had last year?

9:37	Paul Swydan: No, but I like your spirit.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all. A 2 BB/9 would help though

9:38	The Dude: Jeff, that line was from The Simpsons. Should have included that in your poll.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Yeah, JEFF.

9:38	Paul Swydan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk8SToEQPGw

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not watch all those enough to memorize them. I have too else to do with my life.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Jeff throwing shade!

9:39	Ed in Iowa: I’ve never actually seen Carrasco pitch, but statistically he seems like a monster. If the Cubs could get him for either Soler or Baez along with Hendricks and McKinney they’d have to do that right? Maybe even Soler and Baez and Hendricks?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I would think the main benefit of getting a guy like Carrasco would be to upgrade over Hammel and not Hendricks, so I wouldn’t be inclined to include Hendricks in any proposals.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: You might be there. The Indians will be looking for more than the Braves got more Miller

9:41	Paul Swydan: That’s for sure, though I doubt they’ll get it.

9:41	Dr Evil: Aaron Hicks just a really good 4th OF type, or is he a starter in the future?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I think he can still be a starter, but it’s nice to know that he has definite fourth outfielder status now.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: He could start somewhere and may quite a bit in NY with their injury prone OF

9:42	J: Assuming Price would’ve signed with San Francisco for similar terms as with Boston, would the Giants have been better off with Shark and Cueto or with Price and their best cheap young SP?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I’m inclined to say Price, but just by a whisker. Shark and Cueto is not a bad outcome for them.

9:43	Paul Swydan: And I only say Price + young guy because the Giants specifically always seem to turn up useful young/inexperienced players.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the move for two pitchers. Their rotation was not good at the bottom and another scrub got pushed down the ladder

9:44	Jim: Do baseball sights or orgs hire students the summer after high school graduation

9:44	Paul Swydan: Sometimes? It depends on the person, generally, and the job type.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I have known it to happen, but most have been doing the work already. Chris C. is an example at SBN

9:46	SchwarberBomb: WHY ISN’T THERE A GOOD MOBILE APP FOR FANGRAPHS

9:46	Paul Swydan: Because we are more focused on building a site that looks good on a mobile browser than we are building an app that is going to be outdated as soon as you buy your next phone. 🙂

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:47	Paul Swydan: But thank you for your interest in a FanGraphs app. It is noted for the record.

9:47	Walker: Exact question addressed by Dave Cameron here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-giants-diversification-strategy/

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yes, right, Dave did write about that today.

9:47	SchwarberBomb: Can someone just tell me the best to use out of xFIP, FIP-, xFIP-, and ERA-? I get so damn confused.

9:47	SchwarberBomb: Oh, and also SIERA.

9:48	Paul Swydan: I don’t think there is a best. They all tell you different things. It depends on what info you are looking for. Are you looking for descriptive data or predictive data?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: All depends on how you want to use them. Each has its own use.

9:49	zak: what’s the difference between FIP and truERA?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Well, I think the main difference is that I have heard of FIP, but not truERA.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: My exact question

9:49	SchwarberBomb: I’m usually looking for predictive data.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Then I think you probably want to look more at xFIP, but Jeff is more of an authority on this than I am.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.hardballtimes.com/kwera-the-starting-point-for-pitcher-evaluations/

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah, just read Jeff’s articles on THT. 🙂

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Near the bottom, the predictive values are stated.

9:51	Derek: How would a pitcher do as a starter if he only goes through the lineup twice, but throws 75% eephuses (eephii?) and 25% 95mph heaters with league average command?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: The best defs are in our glossary.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Poorly. Very poorly.

9:52	Paul Swydan: You couldn’t throw the eephus that often and not have hitters time it and crush it.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, but it would be can’t miss TV

9:52	Paul Swydan: If they knew 3 of 4 pitches would be the eephus, they would just sit on that until they did damage.

9:52	Rick: Which teams do you expect to out perform the Depth Chart predictions at this point?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: And massive popups

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, the Royals, for starters. They’re not this bad:

9:53	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I will take the DBacks. Looking at their minor league depth chart, they have quite a few players near the majors who could make a difference.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Also the Rangers and Twins.

9:54	Paul Swydan: On the higher end, the Pirates.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul, they are that bad right now. The team is gutted and can only spend on this season.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: they = Royals

9:54	Paul Swydan: I shan’t believe it!

9:54	SchwarberBomb: Jeff I believe you reside in KS; do you go to Kauffman and have any sort of FG meet-up? I’m in KC.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Jeff, do you?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but I usually try to meet up with the Royals Review gang

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, more BP alum in the KC area

9:56	W*: how would you use statcast to update your data? Do you have access to that stuff?

9:57

Paul Swydan: I’m not sure we want to jump to conclusions after just one year, but there have been some good studies, like Neil Weinberg’s piece in this year’s THT Annual, and the tDIBS study we pubbed at THT recently. As for access, we can get our hands on some of the data if we ask nicely, but not all of it.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: We have access to it, but it is not integrated yet. I think David is waiting to see what format it eventually is in.

9:58	Clark the Cub: Any chance of the Cubs reeling in Kevin Kiermaier for some combination of pieces? An OF with Kiermaier and Heyward next to each other would be unreal.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: The missing data is a pain for research. Makes it impossible at this point

9:58	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say no on this one.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all

9:59	Phil: Man, Life Aquatic has to be Wes’ best, right? Watching it now and that jaguar shark reveal is most emotional thing he has done. And Portuguese David Bowie is tops.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I need to re-watch it, but my current Wes favorite is “Moonrise Kingdom,” because I feel comfortable watching it with the children.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I know you won’t believe this, but I have never seen it