FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/20/16

by Paul Swydan

December 20, 2016

8:51	Paul Swydan: Who will be happier with the Clay Buchholz trade? Red Sox (20.4% \| 19 votes) Phillies (29.0% \| 27 votes) One of the 28 teams who didn’t acquire him (50.5% \| 47 votes) Total Votes: 93

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Not sure if Jeff will be here or not. I forgot to talk to him today.

9:02	Paul Swydan: In any case, welcome to the last FanGraphs After Dark chat of 2016. It’s been a journey.

9:02	Josh: What options are there for LHH 4th Outfielders?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Perusing the list, I see Angel Pagan, Rajai Davis (though he’s better from the right side), Michael Saunders, Brandon Moss, Nori Aoki, Michael Bourn. http://www.fangraphs.com/freeagents.aspx?sign=all&pos=OF&nteam=all&oteam=all

9:04	Roadhog: I would still really love the A’s to sign Edwin, odd as it sounds. Couple him with Dyson for CF, and I believe that full seasons of Cotton/Healy/Wendle/Maxwell will be improvements as well.

9:05	Paul Swydan: And that would get you to what…74 wins?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I don’t see why that would be worth it, at all.

9:05	KCFanInPA: Any chance Dyson could geto traded to Orioles for Brach or Oakland for Doolittle? What kind of package do you think it would take?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I can’t see why the Royals trade Dyson if they’re trying to compete in 2017, so I wouldn’t see those as acceptable returns. But if they are trying to win now and trade Dyson, then yeah, those are in the ballpark.

9:06	Rb: Quintana for Rodgers Dahl and tapia who says no?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Rockies

9:06	Paul Swydan: Quintana for Rodgers would be an overpay by the Rockies, nevermind adding the other two guys.

9:07	Jared: Thanks for all the good work and fun! Avid reader! Happy holidays! NL only, 25 man roster, 10 teams. Unlimited keepers, salary Increases $3 a year. I traded joe Ross at $6 and Thor $11 for Luke weaver $3 and Trea $6.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Seems pretty fair. Trea at $6 is the most attractive player to me in that deal by a fair amount, so I’d say that’s pretty sweet.

9:08	SurferJeff: Is this the year Carlos Rodon finally breaks out? What do you see as his floor and his ceiling this year?

9:09	Paul Swydan: He’s been pretty much the same guy in his first two big league seasons, he just pitched more in 2016. I wouldn’t expect him to take a big leap forward, but that’s OK — 2.5 WAR pitchers don’t grow on trees.

9:09	Snarfle: Tips for first auction? Or prepping for first option?

9:11

Paul Swydan: The mistake I made in my early drafts was not being willing to go a couple dollars over budget to get the guys I really wanted. If a particular player auction really gets out of hand – say $7-8 over budget, it’s OK to let go. But don’t lose a guy over $3-4. Get the guy you want, and figure out how to get back under budget later on.

9:11	Brian: Do you think Nate Jones gets moved before the season starts?

9:11	Paul Swydan: No, I’d guess that they’ll use him as a midseason trade target.

9:11	Ryan: Could the White Sox be 2018 wild card contenders? A lot of the talent they’ve picked up is close to MLB-ready, and they could still have Quintana and Abreu

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think 2019 is probably more realistic, especially since they’re still likely to move Quintana and Abreu at some point in the next 9 months.

9:12	Fat Kenny G: After dominating my fantasy baseball league for three years, my last two years I finished last. Give me a motivational comment on why I should continue to put effort into the off season.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Because you’ve been dominant in 3 of the last 5 seasons and your leaguemates are still terrified of you, and like 2Pac, you like striking fear into the hearts of men.

9:13	Old professor: Has Nats trading of Giolito raised red flags about his “‘top of rotation” potential? What umbers do you see for his 2017 season?

9:14

Paul Swydan: I think those concerns were always there, as they would be for any player who has already had TJ surgery. But I think a lot of these supposed red flags are people working behind the scenes for Washington’s benefit, trying to make the price they paid not seem so steep. Giolito is still going to be a highly-rated prospect.

9:14	Bort: Um, Rajai Davis is a RHB.

9:15	Paul Swydan: You know Bort, for some reason I always think Davis is a switch hitter. My fault.

9:15	Fat Kenny G: Clay Bucholz 2017 NL Cy Young?

9:15	Paul Swydan: It’s destination.

9:15	Peter: I am so conflicted on Dee Gordon this year. Are you bullish or bearish?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Neither!

9:15	John: Should the Mets trade for Blackmon, go with Grandy/Lagares or something else? Would would it take to get Blackmon?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Steven Matz? That’d be who I asked for, anyway.

9:16	Snarfle: Most Mets thing? 1. Dropping Justin Turner, having him turn into a star. 2. Having 3 RFs and half a CF.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Oh, definitely 2. No one really thought Turner would be this good.

9:17	Rox season ticket holder: Outline the dream scenario for the Rockies for the remainder of this off season please.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Well, I suppose the dream scenario would be trading Charlie Blackmon for Mike Trout.

9:18	Paul Swydan: But in terms of realistic dreams, it’d be something like trading Blackmon and a prospect or two for Stroman/Matz/that type of 2-3 starter, moving Dahl to center and Desmond to LF, and then signing Edwin Encarnacion at a deep discount.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Then it’d also involve finding another 2-3 good RPs. The one they signed isn’t really moving the needle, unfortunately.

9:19	Chase Kimura: I’m starting to see some, everybody braces yourselves, optimistic pieces on the Angels? They’re going to add another outfielder, I still think they need relief help, and the SP needs to stay healthy, but I like them competing for a Wild Card spot.

9:19	Paul Swydan: The pitching is thin to begin with, and any injuries will further deplete it. I don’t see it, to be honest.

9:20	Glasnow Half Full: Pirates/Daniel Hudson deal: Yay or Nay?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Definite yay. Happy he got the opportunity he wanted. If you read Jeff Passan’s book, The Arm, you know he worked his ass off to get it.

9:20	Glasnow Half Full: Does Andrew McCutchen become Andrew McCutchen again in 2017?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I still believe in him, yes.

9:21

JCurrie : Looking back at the Toussaint and Arroyo, for Gosselin trade, I’ve concluded that the D backs got the better end of the deal, saving about 10 mil and getting an MLB player (tho uninspiring). My question is, in today’s day and age of Sabermetrics and advanced scouting, will we see more trades like this, essentially a salary dump, or less trades of this nature? Also, side question, but if hypothetically the Angel’s possessed a top prospect, say Yoan Moncada, would that be enough to clear a guy likes Pujols contract from the books, or would that just not make sense for either the acquiring team, or LAA? Thanks, love fangraphs, Merry Christmas.

9:22	Paul Swydan: First question – No, because for this trade to work for the Dbacks, they had to whiff spectacularly on a first-round draft pick, and no one wants to do that, or even admit to doing that.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Side question – It probably wouldn’t make much sense for the Angels to pair Pujols with a Moncada-type player. Arte Moreno has the money to pay Pujols.

9:23	Mariners: What starter could the M’s go after? Ivan Nova, Tyson Ross, Jason Hammel? Any others?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I’d sign Ross personally, because I think he has the most upside. But I don’t know his medicals.

9:23	Jordan: Why do you guys take up to 3 people to answer less questions in the same amount of time as the daytime chatters? Are you guys special?

9:24	Paul Swydan: There are generally only two of us. Also, if you don’t like the chat, why did you come here? Door’s on the left.

9:24	Jeff: $200 OBP keeper. Keep Villar for 12/14/16 and assume regression to 10/40 with a .330 OBP?

9:25	Paul Swydan: That seems like a steep price for Villar. If you’re assuming that much SB regression, then he doesn’t really do anything special for you, does he?

9:25	Dan: Of the 20 teams interested in Tyson Ross, are the Royals one of those teams?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Probably!

9:26	Brian: Hey Paul. Out of curiosity, how often do you look for new writers at THT? And, if you accept applications/example work, where can that be found? Thanks!

9:26	Paul Swydan: I am always recruiting new writers for THT. My email address is publicly available on THT’s website, and am always happy to get emails from potential writers.

9:27	Kyle G: Who is someone likely to become a household name this season?

9:27	Paul Swydan: That’s a hard question to answer, because I don’t think there are many baseball players who are household names. For instance, I don’t think my mom would know who Mike Trout is. So, let’s start with Mike Trout, I guess?

9:27	Sox Rox: Who likely offers the best package for Quintana talent-wise? Rockies, Astros or Yanks?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Oh I don’t think it will be the Rockies. The Astros and Yankees have both shown they have that killer instinct when it comes to landing their guy though, and I would never bet against Brian Cashman.

9:29	Bobby: In a philosophical sense, why do you care so much about basrball?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Because it brings me joy.

9:29	Cybo: Tell me something good about my Tigers. It’s been deppressing these past couple years and the out look is bleak =[

9:29	Paul Swydan: They haven’t yet wasted any money in the free-agent market!

9:29	Tomas: Are you buying the Ray’s as a dark horse candidate to land Bautista, perhaps on a one-year, value rebuilding deal?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I can’t see why Jose Bautista needs a pillow contract to rebuild his value. Once he came back from injury in August, he was the same guy we’re used to seeing, more or less.

9:31	Paul Swydan: 134 wRC+ in September.

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’m sure teams are aware of this, and how good he is. I see him just waiting out the market, a la Prince Fielder, etc.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Not everyone needs to sign in November and December.

9:32	Paul Swydan: IF he DOES need to take a 1-year deal though, I still wouldn’t expect the Rays to offer the most money in that situation.

9:32	Tim: Who’s a first-time HOF candidate who won’t make it, but who nonetheless deserves a few token votes to recognize a surprisingly good career? I’d personally go with Mike Cameron

9:33	Paul Swydan: Loved Mike Cameron. He’d be my pick too. Only 3.6 fewer WAR than Guerrero, who is basically a slam dunk for induction…

9:33	Robby: if you were a GM would you rather have young pitching or young hitting?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Young hitting, without a doubt.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Young hitting can be the 2016 Cubs. Young pitching often becomes the Mets’ Generation K.

9:33	Paul Moehringer: How many of these long term reliever contracts do you think teams are going to regret and how many are worth the risk?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I think any one-year deal is worth the risk. Most of the 3-year deals for non-closers will end up being regrettable.

9:34	Joaquín Quinoa: Who do you expect to have more WAR rest of career, Tim Anderson or Jose Peraza? Last year Peraza, who’s younger, did more in fewer at bats and he’s notionally a better fielder, but Anderson is expected to maybe grow into more because he started playing later? Really?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Peraza, though I don’t have confidence that either will have an abnormally long career.

9:34	Cybo: Keeper help. Help me pick 3 of Beni, Sano, Scharber, Maz, Piscotty, Healey, Travis. Can keep em forever league if it matters. Love the chats. Thanks as always!

9:35	Paul Swydan: Help me out here, who is Maz?

9:35	Bobby: Dont you think it’s a big problem for MLB that your mom doesn’t know who Mike Trout is ?

9:36

Paul Swydan: No, not really. MLB is a $10 billion business and while they are trying to change their marketing approach now, traditionally have focused on promoting the team and the history of the game over individual players. Also, my mom is in her 70s and hasn’t followed sports since the Dodgers left her native Brooklyn.

9:36	Paul Swydan: When the 1991 NBA Finals started, my mom asked me if I was excited to watch Michael Johnson play Magic Jordan.

9:37	Darragh: Hey, Paul. Thanks for the chat. If the Jays manage to add two outfielders between now and spring, does Ezequiel Carrera have any trade value? Maybe bring back a reliever?

9:37	Paul Swydan: No matter how many outfielders the Jays add, Carrera will not possess enough value to bring back any interest major league players.

9:37	5 Run Homer: Mazara

9:38	Paul Swydan: Ah. I mean, I don’t think I’m out of line in not knowing who that was, right? I’ll say Benintendi, Sano and Schwarber.

9:38	Bobby: Harsh answer to Jordan, much respect

9:39	Paul Swydan: I mean, it should be fairly obvious that we answer fewer questions because it takes two people longer to answer questions than it does one person.

9:39	Bobby: Is Superman the equilavent of a 2.05 era guy with a 3.75 FIP? I.e. overrated

9:40	Paul Swydan: That’s such a fantastic question, I love everything about it. But Superman was only overrated in the sense that he is boring. In reality, he’d be a 0.00 ERA guy with a 0.00 FIP, and that would get hella boring to watch. He’d throw a perfect game every time.

9:40	Paul Swydan: And as a pitcher, you couldn’t even get close enough to him with kryptonite for it to matter. Not without breaking the rules, anyway.

9:41	Dan: Is Santa real?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Mmmhmmmm.

9:41	TengoPreguntas: Thought Maz was Matz missing the T

9:41	Paul Swydan: That was my first thought as well! Oh well.

9:41	Alfonso: The Yankees have really struggled with developing starting pitchers. Not a question, just an observation.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Developing pitching is hard.

9:41	Nick: As a yankee fan, i’m hoping they don’t trade for quintana, but if they did, what would the package look like? Frazier as the headliner?

9:41	Paul Swydan: One would assume Frazier would be prominently involved, yes.

9:42	Alfonso: Actually Superman would have a negative FIP, like Andrew Miller did for half the year.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I thought about that. Probably. Either way, it’d be boring.

9:42	Andre: Tell me something good about my Jays pls?

9:43	Paul Swydan: They still currently project to have the 6th-best offense in the AL even after losing 2 great hitters. And who knows, maybe one of them will still come back!

9:44	Jordan: It wasn’t a question of liking the chat, it was a question of speed… but thanks for being an asshole about it

9:44	Paul Swydan: Sorry, Jordan. It’s mostly what I said – it simply takes us longer to answer the questions jointly. Also, we have so many questions in the queue that Jeff doesn’t know which questions I am going to pick, so it necessarily takes him longer.

9:45	Lisa Vanderpump: Do the Reds trade Phillips and/or Cozart before the season?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Nah, doing things isn’t the Reds’ style.

9:45	TengoPreguntas: how fast would superman throw? (I’m gonna go with all the mphs)

9:45	Paul Swydan: An interesting theoretical question would be exactly how fast can you make the ball go in 60.6 feet?

9:46	Jt: Would it be a good idea for ny Yankees to discuss extension with Gary Sanchez? If so what is a fair deal ?

9:46	Paul Swydan: No, I’d give at least one full season. The basic priority is locking up a player before he reaches arbitration, and Sanchez has plenty of time left before he gets there.

9:47	Jt: What could th Yankees reasonably get in return if they made starlin Castro available ?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I honestly don’t think much. It’s not clear that Castro would be an upgrade over what any team looking to contend in 2017 already has at second base.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Or, at least, enough of an upgrade to justify making a trade.

9:48	Jaime: What would be considered best case scenario for this Yankees pseudo-rebuild? Maybe Sanchez and Torres are stars with other above average regulars?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yes, I think that is the realistic best-case scenario, Also, that Torres has a great season and is ready to contribute at the major league level by mid-August, giving the Yankees the boost they need to grab a Wild Card spot.

9:49	Tom: Rays and Athletics seem tough to predict for next year. Do they move Gray and/or Cobb? And where do they finish in their divisions?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I don’t think they are tough to predict at all. Neither has done enough to merit inclusion in the Wild Card races, and neither has anywhere near enough to win their division.

9:50	Paul Swydan: At this juncture, I couldn’t see picking either to finish among the top 3 teams in their division.

9:50	John: How much of Yasmany Tomas’s contract would the Diamondbacks have to eat to trade him? Seems like he could be a legitimate MLB player as a DH

9:50	Paul Swydan: All of it.

9:50	Tom: Does a Puig for Braun deal still make any sense for LA?

9:50	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think I would want any part of Ryan Braun.

9:51	Brad: I watched return of Jedi for first time since it was first released in movies. How does Luke get captured by ewoks yet beats darth Vader in a fight?

9:51	Paul Swydan: A) There was like 800 of those Ewoks. B) He ALLOWS himself to be captured by the Ewoks. He didn’t want to kill the furry little Ewoks, they were too adorable. There had to be a better way!

9:52	Tommy: What books would you recommend for someone relatively new to fangraphs?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I generally don’t like to recommend baseball books, because honestly, we could do that all day. But I’ll humbly suggest the THT Annuals, as well as the Bill James Baseball Abstract and the BP Annual.

9:53	Paul Swydan: The old BP Annuals too, in case that wasn’t clear.

9:53	AMC: Kevin Pillar for Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, with Mets eating 8M total?. Win Win right?

9:54	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t see why the Blue Jays want to do that. You’re just transferring the “we don’t have a center fielder” problem to the Blue Jays, who would be forced to play Granderson’s subpar D in center or Pompey’s subpar O.

9:54	John: So who starts for Boston now when E Rod struggles and Wright gets hurt?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Pomeranz

9:55	Lisa Vanderpump: Lol. You’re probably right. One more, please. Do you see Eugenio Suarez breaking out next year? I feel he had a solid year in 2016, sans May.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Alas, Steamer doesn’t see further development in his immediate future, and I am inclined to agree.

9:55	Myster E. Mann : What’s wrong with granderson/lagares in CF?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Because you’d always be playing one flawed player. Granderson on D, Lagares on O.

9:57	Paul Swydan: The idea is to find a player who can be at least average at both. That COULD be Granderson, but you’d rather have him in an OF corner.

9:57	TengoPreguntas: Why do people try to compare the braves’ rebuild to the cubs’? They are taking rather different approaches in which type of talent to amass

9:57	Paul Swydan: Because people like to be optimistic.

9:58	AMC: Pompey’s O by default is probably better than Pillar’s

9:58	Paul Swydan: Look, I’m not much for appeals to authority, but if the Jays really believed that, don’t you think Pompey would have more than 148 PA on his major league resume?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I was bullish on Pompey a couple of years ago, but it hasn’t worked out that way.

9:59	TengoPreguntas: How many terrible trade proposals do you get in a normal chat?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Not too many. You guys are pretty sharp.

9:59	Myster E. Mann : Regarding Jay bruce, can the Mets expect to get more/less/the same value prospect that the bosox got for buchholz?