FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/2/14

by Paul Swydan

December 2, 2014

6:22	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to cram some baseball straight down your cramholes. So get ready. You can prepare by pumping the queue full of questions. See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi guys! Working feverishly to get our next book, When the Sparrow Sings, by Jason Linden, ready for purchase.

9:02	Comment From Pale Hose Hey everybody. Go buy Hardball Times. It is excellent!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Thanks Pale Hose!

9:02	Comment From Nick First, can we get rid of this damn mountain.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I feel like this is a pop culture reference that I’m not getting.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t get it either

9:03

Comment From Matt
I’ve been throwing this out there and you are particularly qualified Paul. Could you see a Xander-Harvey/deGrom-Tulo three way deal? Prospects would be involved as well. Mets get their SS to contend and have a lot of pitching. Red Sox get a top end starter,could move Mookie to SS for a year freeing up a slot for Victorino. Rockies get a SS they can sell as a Tulo replacment and save over $100M.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see it, but 3 team trades are about impossible to work out.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I like where you’re head is at. But I don’t think Xander by himself would be enough for Tulo. You are shorting the Rockies by a lot in that deal, even granting that there are prospects involved. Also, I might be alone, but I am still wary of deGrom. He was pretty old for a rookie.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure the Mets would take on the money

9:05	Paul Swydan: That too.

9:05

Comment From Does Nick Franklin make the Rays opening day roster and, if so, what kind of numbers does he put up?
I’m thinking that the Jays probably don’t have a lot more money to spend and they still haven’t addressed their need for a closer. Is it possible they fill the spot internally and, if they do, who gets it?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Sanchez could fill the role or I would look for a fail starter (Wade Davis type) to fill the role cheaply

9:06	Paul Swydan: Well they keep talking about Aaron Sanchez in the rotation, but he could be a good option. Cecil could handle it too.

9:06	Comment From Gila Monster Could Cleveland be a dark horse for Cespedes? They could use a power bat upgrade over David Murphy in RF and have the pitching the Red Sox need. Maybe throw in a few pieces and and try for a Corassco or Salazar?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think that’s wishful thinking. I think Cleveland isn’t stupid enough to trade that many years of control for Cespedes. Zach McAllister perhaps, but not Carrasco or Salazar.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: It is workable, but as Paul said, the years are too short for Cespedes

9:08	Comment From DoolittleFan60 Thoughts on Dustin Ackley? He showed signs of breaking through last season but ended up with rather pedestrian numbers. Would you keep him in an 11-team, AL-only auction league at $15?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Values are funkier in AL/NL-only leagues, but I’m leaning hard no on that. Jeff has better perspective though because he is still in an AL-only league and I’m not.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I bet you can get him for cheaper next year. I find him frustrating also and have just moved on in shallow leagues

9:10	Comment From Chest Rockwell Do you think baseball would be better off with a hard(er) salary cap?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:10	Comment From Al In keeper league where i already have longoria manning the hot corner, would you draft castellanos, or franco? Currently i have morneau at 1st. I am leaning toward Franco because i think he might end up at 1st. Thoughts?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Are those my only two choices? If so, I guess Franco because of what you said, but you’ve gotta have other choices than those two guys.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Castellanos better. Get the better player now and deal with possible future moves in the future.

9:12	Comment From DoolittleFan60 Have you seen any detailed analysis on the impacts of infield shifts on hitter performances last season compared with previous seasons? It seems like a bunch of LH pull hitters (eg, Brian McCann) were really hurt by shifts.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I know Jeff has that data. Not sure if he has done anything player-specific.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I know the 2013 is in last years annual and I had some mid-season numbers. Let me look. Go solo for a bit Paul.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Solo!

9:13

Comment From Pale Hose
Hey guys. I play in a deep (24 team/keep 25) simulation league. I have been rebuilding for the past three years, but now my team has the best WAR (defense counts in simulation) and Steamer projects more of the same next year. My team’s average age is under 26. How aggressively would you pursue upgrades in this situation? It feels kind of wrong to trade some of my younger guys for veteran improvements after all this.

9:14	Paul Swydan: If you’re the best, you’re the best. Why do you need to upgrade? Guess I’m missing something here…

9:14	Comment From Rough Odor With all this talk of the Mets attempting to get a young SS, why hasn’t Jurickson Profar been mentioned? He seems to not fit in the Rangers infield anymore and the Mets could send a combo of Niese, Gee, and Montero to shore up the Rangers rotation.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Probably because the Rangers aren’t going to trade Profar when his value is at an all-time low. If they make a trade, it’ll be Andrus or Odor.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Also, Niese, Gee and Montero? Come on.

9:15	Comment From TH I got to say, this is going to be a great reprieve from studying for my econ final.

9:15	Paul Swydan: We’re here to help.

9:15

Comment From BMarkham
What do you do with the Cardinals rotation? Do you sign a 5th starter of do you let Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales battle it out? If you do get a 5th starter what do you do with each of those two, send them to the pen or start in Triple A? Brett Anderson seems like a good option for the Cards, a buy low move on a good-when-healthy type that they really only need healthy for 10-20 starts. Then have Martinez and Gonzales awaiting injuries in Triple-A. Thoughts?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Some early 2014 shift data: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… I thought I did one later

9:16

Paul Swydan: I don’t think Anderson is the route you go. You want an Aaron Harang type that isn’t going to buck about spending time in Triple-A and will be healthy all year. Flexible, in other words. That’s basically the exact opposite of Brett Anderson. But the bottom line is I want Gonzales and Martinez battling for fifth spot.

9:17	Comment From hscer Just one measly final? I have 44 pages of writing to do by noon Monday!

9:17	Comment From Hey guys, Thats a cool picture. Also, I read somewhere – ESPN, maybe? That Stroman is projected to be the best started in the AL East next year. As a jays fan, that makes me super happy. Unfortunately, I’m not convinced this is/should be the case. Thoughts?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: No luck, I should run some updated values and will join Paul

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Not many other choices in the AL East. Tanaka isn’t healthy

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yeah that was my article on Monday. I guess I don’t see what your hesitation is. Stroman is pretty great. His 3.3 WAR was 30th-best in the game last year and his 2.84 FIP was 18th (min 100 IP). That’s pretty good, and it’s not a great division for pitching right now.

9:19	Comment From Forsyth If Lester doesn’t sign w Boston, is Samardzija Shields McCarthy Kelly Buch good enough to win a WS? Or would the Sox need to trade for a Cueto type?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: A lot of assumption there.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I think the former COULD be enough, but I’d feel more comfortable with the latter. Say Cueto, McCarthy, Buchholz, Kelly, Owens/Barnes/surprise breakout.

9:21	Paul Swydan: But yes, what Jeff said. It’s not worth thinking about until we see what happens with Lester.

9:21	Comment From DoolittleFan60 Thanks for the shift data Jeff! Q: Can Kyle Gibson become a legit 15-win, 3.50 EA, 1.20 Whip SP. I had him on my AL-only team last year, and he seemed like a Jeckle-Hyde pitcher — he would throw 7 scoreless innings one start and get hammered the next start

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a fan at all, wasn’t his K%-BB% one of the worst in the league?

9:21	Paul Swydan: That’s because he doesn’t strike out enough batters, so he is more reliant on the opponents’ patience and the size of the strike zone than other pitchers. I would stay away.

9:22	Comment From Gila Monster We should have a Jon Lester poll! Cubs,Red Sox,Giants, or #mysteryteam

9:22	Paul Swydan: 1A and B. Red Sox and Cubs 2. Mystery team . . . 3. Giants

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: That was a quick poll

9:23	Paul Swydan: BOOM!

9:23	Paul Swydan: Fine, fine.

9:24	Comment From Randy Jones Should the Padres package Grandal and Kennedy to get a couple of bats, and maybe sign Melky Cabrera to boot?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I just don’t understand their dangling of Grandal. Grandal IS the bat. They’re going to face a major downgrade at catcher next year if they trade him. I think AJ Preller just wants to get all the other teams to call him.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure they would be much better.

9:25	Comment From Sgt. Pepper This is my first live chat since the new interface and I am disappointed and I blame Cistulli

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: On Gibson: 5th worst K%-BB% min 150 innings: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:26	Paul Swydan: It’s obviously Carson’s fault. Sorry for people who don’t like it. I see a bunch of complaints. I hope you realize that there is absolutely nothing I can do about it.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: It is never wrong to blame Carson

9:26	Comment From . hey it’s actually dark here on the west coast, unlike during the season. Thoughts on the weirdness of Daylight Savings?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Daylight savings is stupid and I curse Benjamin Franklin and farmers a little bit every day for making it dark at 5 pm.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I hate it. I would rather work in the dark in the morning and have some light at night.

9:27	Paul Swydan: YUP.

9:27	Comment From Gussed Of Medlen Ogando and Beachy who would be most likely to have value as a starter moving forward?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Jeff has a better read on their injury situations than I do.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Beachy — They are each a mess, but Beachy has the highest upside

9:28	Comment From Ceej Will Billy Hamilton get any better, or will his hitting be just as bad?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I am confident he will improve a little, but he’s never going to be a good hitter.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: It could be like the 2nd half which was horrible.

9:29	Comment From Gussed The mountain thing is what we see above every chat since the interface change for cover it live.

9:29	Paul Swydan: I knew that.

9:30	Comment From . I personally don’t have the cash to buy the Hardball Times. Maybe Banknotes Harper might be interested in a takeover?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Maybe he would….

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: ….yea

9:31	Comment From Victor In a fantasy keepers league, do you think it is necessary to give a compensation pick in the upcoming draft in wake of the death of Oscar Taveras

9:31	Paul Swydan: It’s not necessary, but it would certainly be the decent thing to do.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: No …. shit happens. It isn’t done for injuries.

9:32	Comment From hscer So Hunter will retire with the Twins on a one-year deal instead of one-day.

9:32	Paul Swydan: That’s cold. Not necessarily inaccurate, but definitely cold.

9:33	Comment From nick44 Anibal Sanchez for Walker and Saunders. Who declines?

9:33	Paul Swydan: The Tigers.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Really a Twin ….. I have missed this…… Yes, the Royals didn’t sign him …WWWWWWWWIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII NNNNNNNNNNNN

9:33	Paul Swydan: Jeff is excited, you guys.

9:33	Comment From Cicero Wilin Rosario is a career 156wRC+ hitter against LHP that has to have value somewhere right?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yes. He should play first base against lefties, and be the backup catcher the rest of the time.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: It would be better if it was against RHP. He will play as a backup somewhere.

9:34	Comment From IamRangers Do you think the Cubs are going after Justin Upton/Cespedes?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think they will be looking for more than one year from any player they get.

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think it’s likely that they have irons in the fire, but won’t pull the trigger on anything until Lester makes a decision.

9:36	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Do you think the Braves should have non-tendered Medlen/Beachy

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Medlen – probably yes, Beachy – no

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think that non-tendering a player doesn’t mean they’re done with a player. I think there’s probably a good chance they bring at least one of them back on minor league deals with heavy incentives.

9:36	Comment From TH it sounds somewhat ridiculous, but is there any potential truth to Lawrie claiming that playing on turf caused him to get injured more frequently? I honestly have no idea.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I think it makes sense, but Jeff knows better than I do on that.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: There was just an article at Beyond the Boxscore …..

9:37	Paul Swydan: Oh! Someone find a link please!

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: http://t.co/qQAzxw8xjG

9:37	Comment From TH Paul, do you want the red sox to sign lester for 150mill (sounds like this is what it will take)? As another sox fan, I think that if the sox are willing to spend that much that spending the extra for Scherzer would be worth it.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think I want the devil I know more than the devil I don’t. The team knows Lester’s medicals. They don’t know Scherzer’s. Also, emotionally, I much prefer having Lester.

9:39	Comment From Rated Rookie What really happens at the Winter Meetings.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I am a little surprised the offseason revolves around Lester and not Scherzer

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Too much action

9:40	Paul Swydan: Actually, picture that without the ball and THAT’S what the Winter Meetings are really like.

9:40	Comment From TH I cannot blame Carson for all my issues because I find his podcasts too pleasant..they make me actually like him!

9:40	Paul Swydan: Oh, don’t get us wrong, we love Carson to death. But everything that goes wrong in life is still his fault.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep.

9:41	Comment From Kevin Who says no: Napoli and Cespedes for Derek Holland

9:41	Paul Swydan: Uh, the Red Sox.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Derek Holland is horrible right now.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Pretty much always has been.

9:42	Comment From fats what would a fowler to the jays deal look like?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: and has lost 1.5 mph off his fastball

9:42	Paul Swydan: Low-level arms. As I detailed at ESPN, I think some of their lower-level pitching prospects – high ceiling but still far away – make sense. One or two of those dudes.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I think their would be about 6 guys going to Houston which no one has ever heard and won’t again.

9:43

Comment From Rabe Buth
If the Dodgers kick in about $20-25M, does a swap of Jiminez and Kemp make sense for both LA and the O’s? I think yes. Jiminez still has the upside to be a back-end starter they need, and this is only Kemp’s 30-34 seasons. There is also Saunders in the market, but really, anything to avoid overpaying Markakis.

9:43	Paul Swydan: No.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but I could for Either or Crawford straight across, Kemp has value

9:44	Comment From Alex Is Torii a HOF?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:45	Paul Swydan: My answers are getting swallowed!

9:45	Paul Swydan: No.

9:45	Comment From TH I think someone was talking about why it is revolving around lester (maybe dave?), and I think it was because everyone expects Scherzer to take longer and so the focus is just on lester until he signs

9:46	Paul Swydan: Yes, I think that makes sense. Also, Lester is a lefty.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea maybe …. the teams who can afford Lester will likely be the same with Scherzer

9:47

Comment From TH
How much less of a return will a team get for a one year player if it is a guarantee that he will not sign a long term contract without testing free agency? Obviously its significant, but I just wonder how much teams value the ability to sign a player even if it is to a market value contract (or near market value)

9:48	Paul Swydan: It depends on whether or not you want the player long-term. There isn’t much evidence that you would want Cespedes long-term.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see them add a million or two onto his value, but not much more.

9:48	Comment From Billy What would the Red Sox have to give up in addition to Cespedes to get Cueto from the Reds? They both have one year left and 10m salary but Cueto’s is a much better deal

9:49	Paul Swydan: At least a good B-level prospect. Maybe someone like Brock Holt. Reds could use Brock to fill in at 2B/SS/CF.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts … probably a lower level , a lot more then Cespedes … I don’t see him as a need with the Reds. If the Reds trade Cueto, they will need pitching.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I just think they will need future assets. If they trade Cueto, they’re bailing on 2015 and will have no use for Cespedes.

9:51	Comment From TH i was more referring to the shark. say that he agrees/is willing to sign a long term contract with the team he is traded to for what both sides somehow agree is market value. Does that add a B level prospect?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Either they are in or out and since they are the Reds, they will act as normal and do nothing.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Maybe. But I don’t think I would do that.

9:52	Comment From Michael We can’t give Brock Holt to the Reds, we are sending him to Oakland in exchange for the Shark.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: All thank.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Oh, OK, I guess I missed that memo.

9:52	Comment From Aaron What current players do you see making the HOF?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Pujols

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Trout

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Cabrera

9:53	Paul Swydan: That’s really the sort of question you need to ask me at the beginning of the chat. I’m borderline braindead right now. Pujols for sure. CC Sabathia has a good shot. Kershaw if he stays healthy for another five years or so.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Going to hold off on crowning Trout just yet.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw is in

9:53	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Ichiro

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably on Ichiro

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yeah. Going to yell I-Chi-Roooooooooo at his induction ceremony. If I go. Which I won’t.

9:54	Comment From All Betts Are Off The Twitter rumormill has been abuzz with potential Cespedes for a #2 pitcher (ie Shark, Latos, etc.), but what prospect package would Yoenis be worth? Obviously dependent on the organization, but would he be worth a Top 10 + Top 20 prospect?

9:54	Paul Swydan: No. If the Sox could get that kind of value for Cespedes, he’d have been traded three weeks ago.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, he is basically Torii Hunter in production. He has little surplus value. I see him bring back a at price starter.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Right. Don’t think Cashner. Think Kennedy. If that.

9:56	Comment From Park Chan-hos Beard Thoughts on Birdich (Sp?) so far? Jury still out?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Who?

9:57	Paul Swydan: It’s Bridich. Jeff Bridich. And I’m biased, but I am confident in Jeff. But yes, the jury is still out. Let’s check back in in a month.

9:57	Paul Swydan: The new Rockies’ GM, Jeff. You know, baseball?

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: The still play baseball in Denver?

9:58	Paul Swydan: And I got crap for not knowing Joey Gallo. SMH.

9:58	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Rumors now that the Jays and Astros are discussing Fowler. What would be a fair return?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Didn’t we just answer this question?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: kind of

9:59

Paul Swydan: From Nov. 26:

http://insider.espn.go.com/…

Dexter Fowler to the Blue Jays for prospects
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The Toronto Blue Jays have but one proven outfielder (Jose Bautista) and one potentially solid outfielder in Dalton Pompey, who has a lot of prospect cachet but is short on big league time. And they have two outfielders who could form a decent platoon in Andy Dirks and Kevin Pillar. If the team is sold on Pompey being the full-time starter to start the season, it certainly could roll with that group.

Acquiring Fowler, however, would give the Blue Jays a lot more options. Since Pompey has a scant 56 plate appearances in Triple-A, acquiring Fowler would give them the chance to leave Pompey in the minors for a month or so until he is definitively ready to hit the ground running. Or if they wanted to keep all five players at the big league level, they could mix and match a lot easier and wouldn’t have to run out a total sieve on the days Bautista needs a breather.

That’s actually a bit more relevant than it sounds. Bautista started 125 games in right field last season (as well as 13 as designated hitter, 11 at first base and five in center), and when he wasn’t playing, there was a revolving door out there. All told, nine additional players started a game in right field for Toronto last season; the 10 total right-field starters was easily tops on the team among positions. (Yes, only nine different Blue Jays were tabbed as starting pitchers.)

It would be nice to have some stability in the outfield, but Fowler brings a lot more than stability. He has a keen batting eye, speed and is a pretty good hitter for a center fielder. And with two center fielders in him and Pompey, it should give the Jays ample coverage in their spacious outfield. Since Fowler has only a year left on his deal, a lower-level morsel such as Jairo Labourt or Miguel Castro plus a fringy major league-ready arm like Sean Nolin ought to do the trick. Even if the prospect package needs to be a bit more robust, that’s likely a better play for Toronto than a cash-rich deal in free agency now that they’ve made their move to land Russell Martin.

9:59	Comment From Park Chan-hos Beard more surprising is that they still watch baseball in Denver