FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/5/17

by Paul Swydan

December 5, 2017

5:49

Paul Swydan:

Which of Paul’s most listened to artists (according to Spotify) this year do you like best?

Kendrick Lamar (29.4% | 41 votes)

The Alchemist (2.1% | 3 votes)

Nas (9.3% | 13 votes)

Mobb Deep (3.5% | 5 votes)

Wu-Tang Clan (16.5% | 23 votes)

I like them all equally! (2.1% | 3 votes)

I don’t like any of these musical acts. (36.6% | 51 votes)

Total Votes: 139

5:52

Paul Swydan:

Which of Paul’s 9 most listened to songs of 2017 (according to Spotify) do you like best?

Your Wildest Dreams – The Moody Blues (9.8% | 12 votes)

Let’s Groove – Earth, Wind & Fire (13.1% | 16 votes)

Capt. Underpants Theme Song – Weird Al (7.3% | 9 votes)

Everything She Wants – Wham! (3.2% | 4 votes)

Saturday – Nathan Willett of Cold War Kids (0.8% | 1 vote)

I’m The One – DJ Khaled f/ Bieber, Chance, Lil’ Wayne (12.2% | 15 votes)

While My Guitar Gently Weeps – Regina Spektor (13.1% | 16 votes)

All Night – Big Boi (4.0% | 5 votes)

(Shake, Shake, Shake) Shake Your Booty – KC & The Sunshine Band (11.4% | 14 votes)

I don’t like any of these songs! (24.5% | 30 votes)

Total Votes: 122

5:58	Paul Swydan: Do you think the Mikolas signing makes the Cardinals rotation deep enough to trade away a starting pitcher? Absolutely (3.8% \| 6 votes) I think so (17.8% \| 28 votes) Meh (36.3% \| 57 votes) I don’t think so (30.5% \| 48 votes) Definitely not (11.4% \| 18 votes) Total Votes: 157

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Austin: Thoughts on Drew Pomeranz for 2018?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll be an acceptable #3 starter

9:04

Paul Swydan: I guess my overriding thought is that he is one of the guys who could be most impacted by the managerial switch. Ole Johnny Farrell pretty clearly just didn’t care to manage his starting rotation like it was 2017, choosing instead to pretend it was 1987. As such, guys like Sale and Pomeranz faded down the stretch. Perhaps Cora will have a brain, and this won’t happen in 2018.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Otherwise, what Jeff said.

9:04	Paul don’t read this….: Jeff… hello

9:04	Paul Swydan: I don’t even know how to read…

9:04	Sean: would a gerrit cole for roughned odor trade work for both teams? Who says no?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Um, the Pirates. Rougned Odor sucks.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s closer than Paul but I think the Pirates will aim for some younger and can take a walk.

9:06	Ben: Supposedly Shohei Ohtani wrote down some year-by-year life goals when he was in high school. By age 26 (2020) he said he wants to win a World Series. Does that disqualify any of the 7 teams still in the hunt?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: No, a lot can happen in two seasons.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Well, maybe the Padres and A’s, but no, any team CAN turn it around if they really want to. It’s just that most every owner wants to hide behind their small market BS.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Even Houston and Toronto and Philly get labeled as small markets somehow. It’s really quite astounding.

9:07	Poppa Brad: If Ohtani puts up a 110 wRC+ with 15 HRs in ~300 PAs and a sub-3 ERA, does that put him make him the MVP favorite?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Assuming that sub-3 ERA comes in 150+ IP, then yes.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Some BIG ifs, but yea.

9:09	AA: After a strong Arizona Fall League showing, should the braves expect max fried to lay claim to a spot in the rotation come spring or do they need to add some depth to make sure they are covered?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think that even if they expect him to lay claim to a spot that they should acquire some depth anyway.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: He could. Walks may be an issue IIRC

9:10	natsfan: With the Rays in continuous roster turnover mode and steals always lacking is Mallex Smith worth a $4 play in AL only?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Standard disclaimer that we need more info than that if you want our best answer. For instance, if your salary cap is $100, then it’s harder to justify $4 on Smith than if it were, say, $280-$300. Having said that, probably, yes.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: AL-only, sure. Almost any hitter with a pulse is in play

9:11	Parblo: What wRC+ over how many PAs would it take for everyone to recognize Ohtani as “the real deal” and buy into him as a true two-way player going forward?

9:12	Paul Swydan: The way fans have been getting riled up at all these no’s from Ohtani, the general fan might not give him his due until he posts a 175 wRC+. For me, I’ll take anything above 90 as super encouraging.

9:13	Paul Swydan: But I very much want the two-way plan to succeed, so I’m not exactly unbiased.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Teams aren’t fighting over him for his hitting. Eric L wouldn’t even put him in his top 100 prospect list if he was a hitter only.

9:14	Lou: Why do so many people believe the Giants are possible contenders when they have posted the worst record since the ’16 All Star break?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Because the Giants are almost always contenders.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Gonna take more than a bad year and a half to convince people otherwise.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see them as a wild card team but that division is tough.

9:15	Yaba daba doo!: The Mariners really need to try to win right now. If they sign Ohtani, how long of a leash do they give him if that means they have to play Nelson Cruz in RF 2-3 days a week? Does 2018 just get punted in favor of letting Ohtani get as many PAs as he wants?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Cruz >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Ohtani

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Ohtani is projected to be similar to the ’17 version of Matt Kemp: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/shohei-ohtani-projection-and-compara…

9:17

Paul Swydan: I don’t see the urgency. The Mariners have never won the World Series. If they need a year to get it lined up with Ohtani, then you take a freaking year with Ohtani to get it lined up. The team’s only free agent of consequence after this season is Cruz, and by then he’ll be on the verge of his age-38 season. Pretty sure the M’s will be able to get him back. Easy, tiger. Everything’s gonna be alright.

9:17	Magic 8 Ball: Grandal for Britton. Make sense?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:17	Paul Swydan: O’s gotta do better than that.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’m not even sure that Britton is healthy.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t mind it on the surface but don’t know each one’s contractual obligations.

9:18	Vic: Is Devinski worth holding onto at around pick # 400 in a 15 Team Mixer?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh yea

9:19	JarHead: Should the Yankees sign CC (assuming they get fair market value) or rely on some combination of German, Mitchel, Green, Acevado, Cortes, Cessa, and Chance? My thinking is that at least one of them will pan out this season, but you guys probably know better!

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yes, they should sign CC.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: CC or some other arm to bridge the gap to the younger guys.

9:20

Wham bam thank you ma’am: This is the only time Shohei Otani will have any control over choosing his future team for the next 6 years. He has to be strongly considering the risk of being traded in that time, right? Which of the remaining teams pose the highest risk of having to trade him in a rebuild scenario?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Giants

9:20	Paul Swydan: I would think the A’s would be the team most likely to trade him, because they seem to determined to take their ball and go home in every season until they con/extort their way into a new ballpark.

9:21	Billy Beane-Counter: Ohtani excluded the A’s from his list because of the facilities and the trade risk, right?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Oh, was Oakland not on the final list? My fault. Yes, I would think those two things played a role.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:22	Robert: How much do you buy Dennis Lin’s (Padres beat writer) observation that the Padres, Dodgers, and Rangers have people in their org that Ohtani may not want to disrespect by not at least granting them an interview? Is the actual list just 3-4 teams?

9:22	Paul Swydan: No idea, but in my experience, Dennis is a good reporter. No real reason to doubt his stance here.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know or care one bit. Too much drama for a Dilenson Lamet clone

9:23	Stevil: If we see a blockbuster this offseason not involving Stanton, which teams would seemingly be the most likely involved?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Seems like the Red Sox are always ready to do something stupid.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see Miggy moving but the injuries.

9:25	Ben: Over under 24.5 M guarantee for Morrow?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Under for me.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Under

9:25	Ben: So, turns out that 7 teams realistically have a shot to land Ohtani. How many teams realistically have a shot to land Harper? Machado?

9:26	Paul Swydan: All 30. All it costs is money, and there won’t be a team who won’t have a need for either.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably 15 willing to pony up the money.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Get ready – next offseason is going to change MLB’s landscape for the next decade. Harper and Machado are the first wave of young players who eschewed the team friendly pre-arb contracts.

9:27	Paul Swydan: If you thought the hot takes after Heyward’s contract were fiery, just wait.

9:27	Ben: Ian Happ for two years of Brad Hand? Is that too much for Hand? Not enough?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Way too much. No way the Cubs should be doing that.

9:28	Paul Swydan: They just failed miserably in the overpay for Justin Wilson. Why would you do that again?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Not in the offseason. Relievers aren’t worth as much compared to trade deadline

9:28	Ben: Best shot and spending entire career with current team…..Bryant, Correa, Lindor, Judge, Bellinger?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Shrug. I guess you’d have to say Judge because the Yankees are the least likely to let a guy slip away because of money.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Judge and the Yankees endless pockets

9:29	Ben: Can you think of a more bizarre managerial hiring than Boone?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Sure. Brad Ausmus. Mike Matheny. Ryne Sandberg. Paul Molitor. WALT FREAKING WEISS.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Kirk Gibson

9:30	Paul Swydan: Look, as much as I hate the Boone signing, the truth is that at least the dude grew up in ballparks, and has a dad who did the job before who he can lean heavily on. Those other guys didn’t even have that.

9:30	BK: Andruw Jones should be a first ballot hall of famer but won’t be

9:30	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep and voters hate players with value from defense

9:31	BK: Is this true about Ohtani’s 80 speed? How many other pitchers do you think have 80 grade speed?

9:32	Paul Swydan: None, because pitchers are taught to let every other part of their game fall by the wayside and concentrate on pitching.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I have no idea if Ohtani really has 80 speed though. I hope he does though!

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: According to KLaw, yes on the 80 speed. Maybe the pitcher who had 3 triples

9:32	Hannah Hochevar: Byron Buxton rhymes with Teddy Ruxpin

9:32	Hannah Hochevar: That’s a real divergent list of songs and artists…

9:33	Paul Swydan: Those are two very cogent observations, Hannah!

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: OK then

9:33	beachy: Who says no? Hanley Ramirez and Brandon Workman for Castellanos, Fulmer, and Miguel Cabrera (and his $192M contract)?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Huh.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I feel like both teams say no?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: A lot of why with that trade

9:34	Paul Swydan: Probably the Tigers say no first, because of Hanley’s PA option trigger.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, it was Luis Perdomo with 4 triples last season.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah. Good ole Luis.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: OMG, 5 hits, 1 2B and 4 3B.

9:35	Ben: Is there any chance Carlos Rodon is available in a trade?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t think so, no.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: No for now

9:36	Paul Swydan: Rodon isn’t a free agent until after the 2021 season. I’m sure the Sox plan on being competitive before then.

9:37	Ben: What is the case for Ohtani to CHC?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: The Cubs have a good team

9:37	Paul Swydan: 3 things. 1) They have a lot of money, and it’s a city where he can get a lot of local sponsors. 2) They’re good. 3) Joe Maddon loves mixing and matching, and would relish the chance to mix a pitcher into the lineup on his off-days.

9:38	Bobert: Even if they land Ohtani, does Texas still have a shot at a wild card berth? It seems like they’ve been adding minor (!) additions to make them a bit better.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Almost every team that isn’t tanking has a shot at the Wild Card on random variation alone, so yes, they would.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Rangers are feeling some heat from losing and are just throwing darts in the dark hoping something hits.

9:39	Brad: Would I be wrong to guess Jeff has no idea who the artists are on Paul’s list. I peg Jeff as classic rock guy.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Is that right, Jeff? Are you a classic rock guy?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Inquiring minds want to know.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Some. Also like older country like Waylon and Willie.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I do raise chickens

9:40	Paul Swydan: Hahaha.

9:40	Ben: If you could pick one former #1 overall pick to start a franchise who would it be?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Uh, A-Rod.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I think this is the right answer

9:41	Bobert: Projections peg Chris Taylor as a decently below-average hitter next season. Any thoughts?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Harper #2

9:42	Paul Swydan: Taylor’s 2 years prior to 2017 he had a 23 and a 62 wRC+. Those seasons are still feeding his 2018 projection. He’s a guy you want to add a teaspoon of salt to his projection.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll take the over. Taylor’s hit pattern is about identical to Murphy’s

9:42	Minty: Vlad Jr or Eloy?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Vlad Jr.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Eloy

9:43	Paul Swydan: But I love them both. #copout

9:43	Ben: How would you feel about CHC acquiring Donaldson and playing Bryant in left?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I mean, in a vacuum, I guess that’s fine. Not sure the Cubs have the prospects left to pull off such a deal, but I’ve been wrong before.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Stupid. The Cubs need to spend resources on better starters

9:44	Bobert: How did the Red Sox win so many games? Nothing truly shined about their roster to me.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Because they had a lot of 1+ WAR players.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: A team of average to above average players is a really good team.

9:45	Tim: Which city on Ohtani’s list would YOU most want to live in?

9:45	Paul Swydan: San Diego

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: San Diego

9:45	Paul Swydan: LA #2, but mostly because I have some good friends there.

9:46	Blue Jays Fan: Jays seem to still need LH OF bat, even moreso one that can leadoff. Do Dyson and Dee Gordon ( put him in OF) make sense? Or Cargo? with someone else leading off

9:46	Paul Swydan: Wow you’re all over the place. First, Dee Gordon isn’t a free agent. Dyson could be a good option, but I wouldn’t sign CarGo.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: They could go several ways but I have a feeling they may end up in a sell everything mode

9:48	Janus: Where are all the hot takes and outrage on the music questions?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, I guess everyone is used to my music preferences? Sad!

9:48	Janus: IS THERE EVEN A GUITAR IN THAT VERSION OF HOW MY GUITAR GENTLY WEEPS

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul has my comments on them blocked

9:49	Paul Swydan: Oh wait, there’s one. Yes? Whatever, it’s the version that plays at the end of “Kubo and the Two Strings” and my daughter likes it.

9:49	Paul Swydan: But yeah, it’s not as good as the Beatles’ and Wu-Tang versions.

9:50	Blue Jays Fan: Did you like the Aledmys Diaz gamble for the Jays and the potential for him to be a swiss army sort that plays 2B/SS/3B/OF?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I do. Those are the kinds of guys you need to stack up and hope one of them clicks.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I was hoping the Royals would get him and give him a try.

9:50	Anthony: Who says no?? Jose Abreu for Michael Chavis/Mike Shawayrn/Bobby Dalbec

9:51	Paul Swydan: Neither team? Seems fair to me.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s OK

9:51	Paul Swydan: I guess if you’re forcing me to pick I’ll say the White Sox say no, and want the 2nd and 3rd pieces upgraded.

9:51	John: Bryant or Arenado for 2018 only

9:51	Paul Swydan: Bryant.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Real life, Byant, Fantasy Arenado. Coors BABIP is a huge factor

9:52	One-Hopper: Paul Swydan tries to keep dignity, refuses to answer Bobby V for most bizarre managerial hiring

9:53	Paul Swydan: OK, that is a good one. I was on the “first-time manager” tip. But you’re right, that hire was indefensible.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: or Trey Hillman

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, Hillman had at least coached/managed in the minors, right?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Japan

9:53	Paul Swydan: Close enough.

9:54	McGirkTheJerk: Dodgers fo doesn’t seem like the type to stomach winning they type of bidding war that will Harper will create. Machado seems more likely but presence of Redturn2 and Kyle seagers brother seems like a hard sell. Is Stanton the best for them?

9:54	Paul Swydan: That take burnt my fingers.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yes, Stanton is the best because they can dictate more of the process.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I guess.

9:55	Party Bob: Are analytical front offices going to pick inexperienced managers that they can mold?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Maybe? I don’t think front offices and managers have that level of communication/mentoring, but I’ve been wrong before.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think they just one who is open-minded to new ideas.

9:56	Nick T.: The Angels just announced they signed Livan Soto for $850K. A few hours ago they announced they signed Kevin Maitan for $2.2M. That’s $3M+ off the board for Ohtani, within 24 hours of their meeting with him. That’s bad news for how they’re feeling about getting him, right?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I wish I knew. But certainly you wouldn’t call it a good sign.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: That was my thoughts. They only had a 1 in 7 chance anyway. Might have figured Maitan was a better for sure bet

9:58	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I’m late, but Big Boi’s latest album was a relief. Vicious Lies and his EP with Phantogram had amazing beats but this is the hardest he’s brought it since Sir Lucious Left Foot. Great album from start to finish.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Agree completely. It was really good.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Pass

9:59	One-Hopper: Interesting side-note: We assume Stanton’s contract is market rate right now because that’s all we can measure it during, but there’s no reason to believe that in 2020 it won’t be below market rate. Might be why Marlins get more than is widely expected in this deal