FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/28/15

by Paul Swydan

January 28, 2015

5:34

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I’m flying solo tonight. Jeff is having some computer trouble. Sorry to postpone last night, but after three hours of the snowblower vibrating my hands, the last thing I was up for was rapidly typing for an hour. Hopefully you understand.

But I’m here tonight, and starting at 9 pm ET we can talk all the baseball talk you can talk. Or something. See you soon

9:00	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this.

9:00	Comment From Rated Rookie

9:00	Paul Swydan: This was more or less me yesterday.

9:01	Comment From DC Whatcha think about me trading a $17 Carlos Gomez for $17 Hanley and $5 kris Bryant? These values would be set for 3 years.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I think that if you can make up the steals elsewhere then this is a no-brainer.

9:02	Comment From DC AL only $260 budget: good strategy to keep Sale, Felix, and Price for $30 each? A lot to spend on pitching but the pool of available pitchers would be trash for everyone else.

9:03	Paul Swydan: I don’t know about trash, but I see your point. I don’t know though, that’s already 34% of your budget on not even a whole pitching staff. I might just pick two of them.

9:04	Comment From Vic I think Snider to the O’s is fantastic! Why can’t Snider’s career follow the same path as Ryan Ludwick’s?

9:04	Paul Swydan: No reason really. I still like Snider. He’s probably not a legit full time guy for a long number of years, but for 2-3 years? I could see it.

9:05	Comment From Rated Rookie If my fantasy squad has a full OF of Trout, Harper, Polanco, and Betts, does it make sense to use an early draft pick on Corey Dickerson? Is that greedy or just good depth?

9:05	Paul Swydan: More greedy than good depth, but if Polanco struggles and Betts doesn’t get PT, I could see it. Still probably wouldn’t be my focus though.

9:06	Comment From At-At Walker, Texas Ranger Please help with last keeper on keep 14, 14 team league with free agents are $10. Odor $2, Henderson A $1, W Rosario $20 or Segura $20. Thank you rockers… and go Hawks!

9:06	Paul Swydan: Henderson Alvarez.

9:06	Comment From Pale Hose It turns out I have just as little to do on Wednesday nights as Tuesday nights.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Me too!

9:06	Comment From 12th Man I’m just here so I won’t be fined.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Chat swallowing my answers. Blergh.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I said “me too” again, but now it’s not as funny.

9:07	Comment From Steven Yes it is cold down here and Florida as well, just want to know if I am Blue Jays GM who should I be trading for a 2b, is Daniel Murphy the player I want, he hits left handed and has a solid OBP, who do I have to trade to the Mets to do the deal.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think that they want to pony up for Murphy, no. To be honest, I think Toronto is probably just going to roll with what they have again.

9:08	Comment From Pale Hose Has Fangraphs ever crowdsourced stadiums similar to how Cistulli did the announcers/brodcasts?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so? Definitely a good project though.

9:09	Comment From Minty What should we make of the fact that management claims that Sano definitely won’t debut until 2016, but that Buxton could/should “surface” this year?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Absolutely nothing. I’m not even sure why reporters ask these questions. How would the Marlins have handled a question like that about Jose Fernandez the year he debuted? You think the Red Sox thought Mookie would jump three levels last year? Some stuff you just can’t know.

9:10	Comment From 12th Man Does Henderson Alvarez have a next level? Or is he who he is?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think he is who he is, but two-win pitchers are harder to find than you think, so who he is is just fine.

9:11	Comment From JV Freeman or Votto for this season?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I’m not really a big Freeman guy, and ATL got actively worse this offseason around him, so I’ll say Votto.

9:11	Comment From 12th Man Is Mike Fiers this good and can his horrible 2013 be attributed to just a personal back story? Or is he just a regression bomb waiting to happen?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I do not think Fiers is this good, no.

9:12	Comment From the dude do you think alex cobb and sonny gray will match or better last year.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yes. Yes I do.

9:12	Comment From JV Jason Kipnis or Starling Marte in fantasy this year?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Marte for me.

9:12

Comment From Snarfle
I have come around to the Sandy SS plan, as I imagine it. See what you have in Flores, see how Profar, Tulo, the Cubs are shaping up, don’t overpay for a nominal improvement that doesn’t actually help much (i.e. Drew), collect gila monsters. Actually that last part is just something I made up.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think the first part might be something you made up too. I think at this point it’s hard to picture the Mets trading for Tulo. I’d be willing to bet that they wanted the Rockies to foot some of the bill, and that’s where trade talks died.

9:13	Comment From JV What do you anticipate from deGrom this year?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I definitely do not expect him to be as good as he was last year.

9:13	Comment From Snarfle 3B and 2B look like they have enough options for most leagues. SS is injury prone stars and not a lot else. Desmond seems the one and only happy medium.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Can’t say that I agree about 2B and 3B. All three are sinkholes. Catcher too. You have to play each position just right. Which is why I like the auction format better. You have a better chance to run the table with guys you want.

9:14	Comment From L. Scott Are the Red Sox looking to add another SP?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no.

9:15	Comment From mtsw You are given access to a time machine, with the caveat that it only works on current MLB players. Who do you send back in time to kill Hitler?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Puig the Destroyer. Or maybe Miguel Olivo. I definitely would not want to F with Miguel Olivo.

9:16	Comment From ANSKY Thanks for chatting Paul. Who should I grab for my last keeper Verlander, Tanaka or Ryan Zimmerman. 20 teams, 6×6 with OPS and holds.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Tanaka. You know what you have in the other two guys. If Tanaka’s elbow doesn’t fall apart, you may have an ace in him.

9:16	Comment From Rated Rookie Of all the ‘best shape of his life stories,’ Xander’s is my favorite.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Easy tiger, it’s not even February yet! Lot of those stories still to come.

9:17	Comment From the dude collin mchugh, jesse hahn, dallas keuchal and tyson ross. rated them from 1-4. what do you think. not getting carrasco, stroman attention quite.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Ross Keuchel McHugh Hahn Keuchel/McHugh nearly same though.

9:17	Comment From mtsw What is the hardest novel that the median MLB player would feel comfortable reading cover to cover?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, that’s not really a fair question. You don’t necessarily need to be smart to read a tough novel, just be willing to sit through it. And baseball players have lots of time on their hands.

9:18

Comment From Somerville Phil
As a perpetually anxious RS fan, my first reaction to the Ranaudo-Ross trade was disappointment, but Sullivan has me half-convinced that it’s not that bad. Your thoughts? I guess part of the problem is just that Ranaudo is less valuable than he was a year ago when we kept hearing about him.

9:20

Paul Swydan: Oh, I liked it a lot. Ross is a good bounce back guy, and it means there’s a greater chance of not having to watch Craig Breslow all year. As for Ranuado, he was horrible in his 30 IP stint, he didn’t have good projections and he worked really slowly. And the team has plenty of SP options and not a lot of lefty RP options. I think the trade is a great fit.

9:20	Comment From L. Scott How does Carolina not have a MLB team? Tampa should move there.

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think of Carolina as more of a college sports/minor league ball state. They wouldn’t even be in my top three for expansion.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Of course, they’d still probably be better than Tampa. I’d love to go back to 1995 (or whenever the vote was) to see what sort of hash Selig and Co. were smoking when they approved Tampa’s bid.

9:22	Comment From Abner I have the first pick in a keeper league and can’t decide who to choose between Rusney, Gallo, or Moncada. Help!

9:22	Paul Swydan: I would go with the one who already graduated to the majors, just because I wouldn’t want to F up the first pick.

9:22	Comment From Curtis Jesse Hahn over/under 20 starts?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Over!

9:22	Comment From Tom So would Beane have been better off with Yunel (2yrs,3rd yr option) + Janssen (1yr, mutual opt) instead of Clippard (1yr)? Assume the “force sign” option is turned on.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Maybe, but I don’t mind him getting Clippard.

9:23	Comment From Brad what did you think about jeff’s article favoring expansion?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I definitely think there is a great argument for two more teams. I vote for Montreal and Mexico City/San Juan/Santo Domingo.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Going to 36 seems like it would be a much harder sell.

9:24	Comment From Dave in London Adding a new team ($260 to spend) to our 10-team, AL only auction league. Any suggestions for dealing with draft inflation? Should I go for high-priced and medium priced guys early to avoid overpaying for the last few decent hitters on the board in the late rounds?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I honestly wouldn’t change your strategy based on that. I’d stick to my values.

9:25

Comment From mtsw
Embarrassed by his ill-chosen comments on shifts, Manfred steps down for a day and appoints you temporary commissioner. You figure out you have the power to move one franchise to any city you want to you (and then realign divisions/leagues to accomodate this, if necessary). Who do you move and why?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Tampa to San Juan. And then I don’t have to realign the divisions.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Or Montreal. Either way, the divisions stay the same.

9:26

Comment From Snarfle
Here’s my favorite new rule idea. Instead of having one league with a DH and one without, the home team gets to decide at some designated point before the game whether the game will be played with a DH. More team building strategy, more game strategy, more markets for sluggardly sluggers, eliminates awkwardness of having leagues with different rules. It’s hard to explain to casual fans, but so are the infield fly rule and balks.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I can’t see that flying at all, but I’m definitely intrigued by the idea.

9:27	Comment From Boilers Wil Myers or Joc Peterson (defense aside)?

9:27	Paul Swydan: It’s tough, because I haven’t seen enough of Pederson, but I will say that I’m not impressed by Myers, so it could easily be Pederson.

9:27	Comment From NYYANKS Do you guys think Yu is a safe keeper for this upcoming season? Have him at a very cheap cost…

9:27	Paul Swydan: Yu as in Darvish? Yes.

9:28	Comment From Dave in London Do you think J. Singleton breaks camp on the Astros 25-man roster? With all the Astros’ 1B/DH types, the organization has been issuing warnings about how players with options needing to have impressive springs to win spots on the Opening Day roster.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I do. It’d be hard to claim the Astros are turning a page and leave him rotting in Triple-A.

9:28	Comment From Yetty Oh I have the new DH rule. You only get the DH after the 5th inning. BAM Fixed!

9:28	Paul Swydan: I guess?

9:29	Comment From mtsw Should MLB focus its international efforts on expanding the game in A) Latin America B) Anglosphere (Australia, NZ, UK, South Africa) or C) emerging Asian markets like China and India?

9:29	Paul Swydan: A or C

9:29	Comment From mtsw How many teams could you move to the NYC metro area before the Yankees’ market would be diluted enough that they aren’t the most valuable franchise?

9:29	Paul Swydan: One more, probably.

9:29	Comment From Rated Rookie The Mariners new home alternate uniform is pretty great, no?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I liked them, yes.

9:30

Comment From mtsw
How do we square the unquestioned marketing dogma that insists fans want faster-paced, higher-scoring games with the failure of indoor soccer and arena football (both explicitly designed to be faster-paced, higher-scoring versions of popular sports) to attract any audience whatsoever? Is there any actual evidence that fans will watch more baseball if there’s more offense?

9:31	Paul Swydan: No fair, you asked Cameron the same thing today. I tend to agree with Dave about football being once a week. Also, it’s hard to suss out at what particular offensive level fans enjoy the game. Fans, I think, just want to see good baseball.

9:31	Comment From Fest Thought on a Chris Davis resurgence? How likely is he to be a 35+ HR guy again?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’ll say that is very unlikely.

9:31	Comment From Botons Betts vs Yelich for the next 5 years in an OPS league? Leaning Mookie, better lineup/team/ballpark/league with better on base skills and speed, and more similar power than people seem to think.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:32	Comment From Evan Gregory Polanco or George Springer where on base matters?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Probably Springer.

9:32	Comment From Arnie Hi, new guy to this site. In AL keeper league 5×5 auction. Keep 2 of these 3. David Oritz $11, Rusney Castillo $10 or Mookie Betts $10

9:32	Paul Swydan: Welcome Arnie! Assuming you can keep the players for more than one year, Rusney and Mookie. If it’s just for one year, Ortiz and Mookie.

9:33	Comment From Andy Can only keep one: bumgarner ($23), hamels ($17), or lester ($14)

9:33	Paul Swydan: All things being relatively equal, take the cheapest pitcher. So, Lester.

9:33	Comment From Brad Do you guys see a bounce back from Cargo and Votto this year?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Definitely from Votto. I do as well with CarGo, but not as strongly. A lot is riding on the health of his knee.

9:34	Comment From Brad who would be the mount rushmore of fangraphs?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Probably Appelman, Cameron, Sullivan and then a hybrid of Carson and Eno’s face. Maybe Carson’s face with Eno’s hair?

9:35	Comment From Rated Rookie The Bill James projection for Mookie. I don't care if it's unrealistic–this year.

9:36	Comment From mtsw Are any of the fangraphs writers interested involved in analytics for other sports or all you all strictly baseball-oriented?

9:36	Paul Swydan: It depends on the guy, but there are definitely people who dig on football, soccer and basketball analytics.

9:36	Comment From Matt Over/under 85 wins for the A’s next season?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’ll say under, but you have it set at the right level to make it an interesting question.

9:37	Comment From mtsw What’s a change the league could realistically make to reward teams more for winning their division? Or is mediocre regular season teams emerging from the Wild Card and regularly squaring off in the World Series not a problem worth solving?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I don’t like it, but the mediocre wild card teams are probably not a problem to the folks on Park Avenue.

9:37	Comment From Ryan What’s the “right ” hit/pitch split for auction prices? Set by the market/league or something you can calculate?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Eno is the better one to ask, but I believe it’s supposed to be something like 70/30. You should definitely take your league parameters into account though.

9:38	Comment From Yetty Heard much in the way of where Moncada most likely fits position wise? Or will it depend moreso on the team that gets his John Hancock?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I have heard nothing, that’s Kiley’s department. And also I do think it depends on who signs him.

9:39	Comment From Francisco Do you think Mike Zunino as a reasonable chance to eclipse 100 wrc+?

9:39	Paul Swydan: There’s definitely a reasonable chance, yes.

9:40	Comment From Dave in London Hi Paul, thanks for your late-night insight. Thoughts on Semien? It looks like he showed good strike-zone judgment in the minors. With 700 PA, does .270/12/75/10 sound about right?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I think that the batting average and RBI are high. Also, let’s remember only a handful of guys get to 700 PA. Last year there was just nine – Kinsler, Markakis, Carpenter, Pence, Freeman, Altuve, Dozier, Trout and Longoria. I wouldn’t expect Semien to find himself amongst that group.

9:42	Comment From Brad how many rounds do you bump up votto for an obp league?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Back into the top three, probably.

9:42	Comment From Nittanychris Can protect TWO in a 10 team, AL ONLY, $260 Auction League…who do you like? Options: $5 Adam Eaton, $11 Kole Calhoun, $13 Drew Smyly, $29 Jose Bautista, $12 Brandon Moss, or $10 Jose Quintana. Thanks.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I like Bautista and Calhoun. Or if you think Bautista is too rich, then Quintana or Eaton.

9:44	Comment From 20longyears The Pirates, 2015 contenders, traded big league outfield depth for a low minors lefty pitching prospect who throws gas, plus an apparently comparable PTBNL. Wisely selling high and stocking for the future? Or giving up a necessary OF insurance policy?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Both, possibly. But it’s not terribly hard to find outfield depth, and if trading Snider gives Polanco peace of mind that he’s the guy, then that’s great. If he takes off, you never look back and don’t need the depth. If he flops, then you can always find another outfielder somewhere.

9:45	Comment From Biggy Who to leave out in keeper: Gio, Gausman, tanaka, carrasco, Richards? Or, since it’s deep, keep all five and let Sal Perez go? already with Harper, puigs crush, starlin, heyward

9:46	Paul Swydan: You could let Perez go, but I’d probably drop Gausman.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Or, if his elbow falls off before your keeper deadline, Tanaka could make it an easy decision.

9:47	Comment From mtsw Would a fantasy baseball league based around WPA instead of conventional stats be fun?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Uhhhh….maybe? I think it would be more fun it you did the components of WPA, ie +WPA and -WPA. There are more swings, twists and turns that way.

9:49	Comment From Brad tango tiger writing for fg now

9:50	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s written for us in the past. Not sure if right now is meant to be more permanent or not. I’ll be just as excited as you if so!

9:50	Comment From Abner I have to drop one outfielder. Who would you give the boot to out of JD Martinez, Jorge Soler, AJ Pollock, A. Garcia, Kole Calhoun or Mookie Betts?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Definitely Avisail Garcia.

9:51	Comment From Dave in London Big-time bounce-back season for Kipnis this year? Do you think he’ll return to his 2013-type numbers?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I was skeptical of Kipnis’ potential heading into 2013, and then he had the big year. Now, after the down 2014, I feel somewhat vindicated. I think he’ll bounce back, but not to his 2013 levels.

9:52	Comment From Bones Keeper two or three in a 5×5: Lester at $10, Cueto at $9 or Gerritt Cole at $6?

9:52	Paul Swydan: At those prices, I don’t get cute – Lester and Cueto.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Cole should be just as good as them someday, but right now he isn’t, and doesn’t come at enough of a discount for it to matter.

9:53	Comment From Biggy Keeping trout, Cabrera, cutch for sure. Now, take two of puig, Rizzo, Strasburg? Keep in mind……foolish Cub fan

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think keeping Puig and Rizzo is fine if you have a UTIL position to stash Rizzo at. Cabrera won’t — I don’t think — have any 3B eligibility this year, so you don’t want to be stuck with a 1B you can’t play.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Trout, Cabrera, Cutch, Puig and Rizzo would be a hell of an offense though. My oh my.

9:55	Comment From mtsw Where do you see Travis Snider settling in the Orioles crowded group of replacement-level outfielders? Does he make more sense as half of a DH platoon with Delmon Young?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Toward the end of the season they seemed to view Lough more as a defensive replacement. So I could see Snider playing more than him, and more than Young as well.

9:56	Comment From Tommy Lasordid How do you think a Panda in Boston does this year? 20-25 HRs, 75-85 rbis?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m expecting more. I’m thinking big with Panda this year. Probably blind optimism. We’ll see.

9:56	Comment From Curtis Do you ever wonder at the quality of some of these leagues based on the keepers some of these guys have?

9:57	Paul Swydan: No, not at all. It’s easy to have five great keepers. The trick is filling out the rest of your roster. Also, I think of FanGraphs readers as smarter than the average bear.

9:57	Comment From Arnie Someone in my AL only league would trade me a $10 Corey Kluber who I can only keep for this year. I offered $10 Rusney Castillo for 2 years. He wants more. Is he unreasonable or am I

9:58	Paul Swydan: You are, sorry. Rusney has proven exactly nothing in the majors. Pony up!

9:58	Comment From Jon While you want to be at the meeting where Selig decided to expand to Tampa, I DEFINITELY want to know how the NHL decided a tampa franchise was a good plan…

9:58	Paul Swydan: Monkey see, monkey do? I definitely agree with you there though.

9:59	Comment From Abner Please rank these low level starters for a full keeper league Hahn, Despaigne, Fiers, Jimmy Nelson.

10:00

Paul Swydan: Hahn
Nelson
Fiers
Despaigne

10:00

Paul Swydan: Alright guys, I’m gonna go kick back with my favorite book here and relax. It’s this one:

10:00

Comment From Rated Rookie

Some light reading for baseball players. I hear it's Papelbon's fav.

10:01

Paul Swydan: Thanks for hanging out, as always. You guys are the best. Hopefully back to the normal Tuesday night chat next week. Until then, be safe on those internets!

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Rational Fan

10 years ago

The fear of defensive shifts in baseball, by baseball brass, is similar to the fear of implementing zone defense in the NBA. The belief was that it was making the game less exciting by limiting offensive output and efficiency, and the belief was it would make the game more boring.

I understand that traditionalist angle on defensive shifts, I just don’t agree with it. “The game has been played this way for such and such years” they’ll argue, but all the while ignoring the fact that ballparks have no standardized dimensions. Players that played in the Polo Grounds weren’t on a level playing field with players playing in old Tigers Stadium, but that was “just a part of the game.”

I personally believe shifting would have taken place on a much smaller scale back in the day than it is today – given the exact same knowledge that we know today. I think shifting is an adjustment to players becoming very pull happy in hopes of being power hitters. Contact rates in baseball have nearly been cut in half the past 30 years – getting the bat on the ball doesn’t hold the same weight as it once did. Hitters will adjust as fielders and pitchers have. I would imagine we’ll see more of an emphasis on players that can hit the ball to all fields, and make consistent contact, because shifts have taken away (somewhat) the value of a dead pull power hitter.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG