FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 1/6/15

7:04	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

7:04	Paul Swydan: Sorry we got this up late tonight. Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET. Fire away with questions now and we’ll see you soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi guys. Jeff will be along in two minutes. I’m going to put up one more poll in the meantime.

9:01	Comment From HappyFunBall Hi Dr. Nick!

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone

9:02	Paul Swydan: Good to start the year with a Simpsons reference. Let’s get it.

9:02	Comment From Pale Hose Which of these pitchers to you expect to impress in 2015: McHugh, House, Shoemaker, Greene?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: All of them

9:03	Paul Swydan: I like House a lot. I like McHugh, don’t love him. I am in wait and see on the other two. Won’t be targeting them on draft day.

9:03	Comment From Pale Hose Thoughts on Kevin Kiermaier going forward? Can he be a 3 win guy going forward?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I think McHugh and Shoemaker already are at their peaks, so maybe the other two.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on his playing time. I could see him come in a defensive replacement

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think 2.5 WAR is a solid bet. Which is close enough.

9:04	Comment From John Farrell When you hear a guy like Bill James predict that Mookie Betts will slash a line of .321/15 HR/40 SB in 2015, your initial reaction is?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I think that’s optimistic, particularly the steals. Hard to get to 40 steals these days.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts comps don’t really exist. He was insane in the minors for his age so projections are going to love him. The AVG is way to high

9:05	Comment From JohnSmoltzsConvertibleHair So Mussina is not getting muvh consideration until the logjam maybe clears?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Probably not, no.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Any more Braves up for consideration? I think it will take a year or four.

9:06	Comment From JohnSmoltzsConvertibleHair Your opinion on Walker’s HOF canidacy? Is he deserving?

9:06	Paul Swydan: He’s in in my book. No brainer, actually.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, maybe …. I see so many others over him. It is a mess right now. It is still getting cleaned up from the year when no one was in.

9:07	Comment From AL Pitching Coach Everyone seems to be picking Carlos Carrasco to have a monster breakout season in 2015. Are you drinking the Koolaid as well?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:07	Paul Swydan: I am banking on him being a solid pitcher all year. If he exceeds that level, that’s even better.

9:08	Comment From JohnSmoltzsConvertibleHair How good of a system is JAWS. I don’t know a better method.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Jay Jaffe does a great job with JAWS.

9:09	Comment From Tony G. First off Happy New Year to you and yours! Let’s assume that Scherzer and Shields end up in the NL, which would leave Felix, Kluber and Sale as the likely AL top 3. Who would you say is the next best three American League SPs after that?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Stroman

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Darvish

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Price

9:10	Paul Swydan: Ooooh, thought experiments! Well, David Price has to be one of them. Darvish. And while Stroman may be, I might just give it to Verlander on his better history.

9:10	Comment From Bat I’m thinking next year for the Hall of Fame, Griffey Jr., Piazza, and one of Bagwell, Schilling, Mussina, or Raines. Thoughts?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably, I would love to see Raines get in.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Griffey, obviously. I also think Hoffman sails in because everyone loved him. Piazza gets in. And then Raines, with Bagwell waiting one more year.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sold on Hoffman

9:12	Paul Swydan: Nor am I. But I don’t think it will matter. Sutter got in, and that is going to justify Hoffman’s selection.

9:12	Comment From Jason Was Dave Cameron’s new baby a shrewd business move to show the Dark Overlord how terrible the site is without him?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I can’t decide if that is more of a compliment to Dave or more of kick in the nuts to the rest of us. Either way, no, Cameron isn’t that clever. 🙂

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all.

9:13	Comment From Rufus I know no one’s supposed to be unanimous, but what kind of baseball-hater doesn’t vote for Pedro?

9:13	Paul Swydan: 49 of them, apparently.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t Johnson over him. The HOF makes no sense to me at all.

9:14	Comment From LA Which order do you watch the Star Wars movies in?

9:14	Paul Swydan: 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 3.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: 5,4,6,1,2,3 — Empire was the first movie I ever saw in a theater.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Ha, Return of the Jedi was mine!

9:15	Comment From GSon Trevor Bauer/Danny Salazar/TJ House/Zach McAllister: Who will be the odd man out in the Indians rotation.. ?

9:15	Paul Swydan: McAllister. He is out of options, so he may be on the trade block, though if I was Cleveland I would keep him as a swingman.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know McAllister’s status with options, but it may be House.

9:16	Comment From Justin could some of the non-Pedro voters be guys who realized that he was a lock to get in, and therefore voted for borderline guys who could use their vote more instead?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Then why vote for Johnson?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Yes, there was some of that. But 49 of that? I doubt it.

9:17	Comment From Mendoza line When will FG and BP just make their own HoF so we can stop watching the current nightmare of a hall year after year?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: But what are we going to use for content around the first of the year.

9:19

Paul Swydan: Now, if you know me, you know that I’ve given this some thought. Here’s the problem – the Hall of Fame is a museum. When you go, you spend like 10 minutes in the plaque room, and then go look at the other exhibits. And that’s the rub. MLB and their teams have agreed to send memorabilia to the Hall. No way you get them to send it to a second Hall that is not sanctioned by MLB.

9:19	Paul Swydan: You could perhaps get items from private collectors. But that would be haphazard and thrown together, and wouldn’t be good enough to actually turn it into a museum on baseball’s history.

9:20	Paul Swydan: If you think differently, believe me, I’m ALL EARS.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: You are getting way to technical Paul

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yes. Yes I am.

9:20

Comment From SWill
Happy New Year!! 12 team roto dynasty league. Just got offered Donaldson and Cole for my Darvish and D. Gordon. My 3B right now are ARam and Lawrie. Other 2B are Lawrie, Utley, Dozier, and Baez. I really have no other SB options besides Gordon though. He made up about 65% of my SB’s. Which side do you prefer? Thanks.

9:21	Paul Swydan: I would hang onto Darvish and Gordon.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take the other side without knowing anything else. Maybe hang on to Gordon and move someone else.

9:22	Comment From Mike Would the Reds trade Chapman?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: The Reds make trades?

9:22	Paul Swydan: The Reds sort of have this thing going where they constantly do nothing. I’m convinced that the trades they do make are ones that other teams push on them and they say yes just to make them go away.

9:23	Comment From Mike More likely to be traded…Zimmermann or Fister?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Zimmermann. I think they could probably re-up Fister.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I would keep Zimmermann around with the hopes in resigning him.

9:24	Comment From Mat Better season for fantasy purposes, Alcantara or Pederson?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Oh that’s a good one. I’ll say Alcantara, just because he’s going to get more playing time.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Alcantara ….. Pederson seems to have some K issues even in winter ball which worry me.

9:25	Comment From guest the 3% of voters that didn’t vote for Randy Johnson and the 9% that didn’t vote for Pedro should lose their ballots

9:25	Paul Swydan: I appreciate the sentiment, but I don’t think it’s that simple.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe they are very small hall guys

9:26	Comment From JohnSmoltzsConvertibleHair Is David Ortiz going to get any voter backlash for the reorted test fail? Or not just because he’s Poppy? Everybody loves Poppy.

9:26	Paul Swydan: First of all, it’s Papi. Second of all, I think he will, but not as much as the current guys are. We’re sort of getting it all out of our system now.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Too much love for him, but I will love to see how some voters try to explain their choice.

9:27	Comment From JohnSmoltzsConvertibleHair So when are you guys going to quit coveritlive for something else?

9:27	Paul Swydan: What something else is better?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Out of my hands

9:28	Comment From G Money Your thoughts on Heyward, is this the year he has his breakout?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Hasn’t he broken out already? Either way, yes, I like him a lot this season.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so. I think he will have a career season at some point and then come back down to his disappointing norm

9:29	Comment From Brad Poppy peed on Jerry’ sofa.

9:29	Paul Swydan: No Poppy no!!!!!!!!!

9:29	Comment From Pedro Best roto 5×5 OF over next 3 years… Joey Bats, Adam Jones, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez?

9:30	Paul Swydan: If you’re asking me to pick one……..Jacoby Ellsbury? Maybe Bautista.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Jones, Upton and Ellsbury …. maybe Braun. Good list

9:30	Comment From Rick Some voters might have voted for Randy and not Pedro because the lasting image of Johnson in the playoffs is his magical run with Arizona, while the lasting image of Pedro in the playoffs is when Grady Little left him in too long.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Not sure how that is the lasting image of Pedro since he won a World Series game in the following season. Johnson was simply a better pitcher, no need to drum up weird reasons.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: The lasting image for me of Pedro is him throwing Zim to the ground

9:32	Comment From Brad Who will have a better fantasy year in 2015, Betts or Dickerson?

9:32	Paul Swydan: DONT MAKE ME CHOOSE!!!!

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Dickerson, I could see Betts run into playing time issues if he struggles out of the gate.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Betts, only because I trust John Farrell more than Walt Weiss. Which is saying something, because I don’t really trust Farrell that much.

9:33	Comment From Ceej Is Zobrist more likely to be traded in the near future or not until the deadline?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I think he gets moved at the deadline when some team is more desperate.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Now for the most value. Position players before the season, pitchers during the season.

9:34	Comment From Plump Tim Any word on Lackey? Is he just going to pitch for 500k this year?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think they’ll announce an extension for him the week before pitchers and catchers report.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: He said he would honor the contract

9:35	Comment From no-nos What are your favorite saber articles from 2014?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: The strike zone one from THT

9:35	Paul Swydan: I haven’t really sat down with it yet. But I need to do it this week. Thanks for the reminder!

9:36	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s probably on the list.

9:36	Comment From Luis Salazar Could the Marlins surprise in 2015?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think they’re going to be a sexy sleeper pick, but I’m not sure I’m buying it.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are around a .500 team, so a few extra wins could really make them a surprise, but so is every .500 team in that case.

9:38	Comment From Borry Bands Is there a web site that has the best of the best of saber metric writing?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, one minute.

9:38	Paul Swydan: At THT, we have a reference page for historical articles. I need to get it updated for 2014. http://www.hardballtimes.co… You can also check out Matt Dennewitz’s Saber Archive. And Patrick Dubuque’s Cold Takes list.

9:39	Paul Swydan: http://coldtakes.com/2014/1… http://saberarchive.com/

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.sportsanalyticsb… Does a nice weekly update, but not all baseball

9:41	Comment From Grace Anyone care about Dipset?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: no

9:41	Paul Swydan: I care about Cam’ron. Not really Dipset as a whole.

9:41	Comment From JohnSmoltzsConvertibleHair Manny’s first year on the ballot over/under 20%?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Sigh. Under.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: He is going to be like Rickey and finally be eligible when he is 65 because he keeps playing

9:42	Comment From Bill Heyman reporting Yanks signed Drew for $5M + incentives. Thoughts?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think that’s a waste of $5 million + incentives.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Makes sense, the Yankees didn’t have enough bad second basemen fighting for one job. Now they have another.

9:43	Comment From AllanWebsterStillCouldBeSomeone I saw ballsandstrikes.co on Reddit it looked good for Saber articles

9:44	Paul Swydan: Good tip, thanks.

9:44	Comment From GSon Curt Schilling suggested that those players who were shoe-ins to making it into the HOF should be awarded entrance by acclimation thereby allowing those votes to be used for other candidates. Other than having undefined acclimation HOF’ers.. does this work for you?

9:45	Paul Swydan: No, not really. But I did like Jeremy Guthrie’s suggestion that if you voted for a guy last year, he wouldn’t count on your 10 person limit the next year. And also Tango’s addendum to it: http://tangotiger.com/index…

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: No, the system is mess because the writers and players f’ed up and now they have to figure out how they are going to fix it.

9:46	Comment From Clin Turdle Is Brian Giles one of the most underappreciated players of the recent era? his peak wasn’t long at all, but he was an absolute force in Pittsburgh(check out his stats!!!) who I think got completely overlooked because he played for horrendous teams.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Yes, he is.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: He is a high peak guy which all get less traction like Murphy, Mattingley,Delgado, Schmidt.

9:48	Comment From Walker Mookie Betts or Christian Yelich, who goes first in drafts?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I would guess Yelich, since he’s more established.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: In the one we are doing for RG, Yellich went 6 picks before Betts

9:49	Comment From Bomok Yahoo league. i have a choice between Myers or rusney. i need your advice, who?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Myers. If VIctorino is healthy, Rusney might not have a starting job.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Myers … I agree with Paul about the playing time.

9:50	Comment From AllanWebsterStillCouldBeSomeone Anything in 2015 you look forward to?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Oh man, so many things. Some are baseball-related, even!

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Beer

9:52

Paul Swydan: I’m looking forward to seeing how the Red Sox roll out their new position players. Can Phil Hughes do it again? Can Jacob DeGrom? Are the Rays tanking? I want to find out. Is Marcus Stroman everything we think he is? Will Troy Tulowitzki finally get that NL MVP, or is he destined to be baseball’s Glass Joe?

So many others.

9:52	Comment From JohnSmoltzsConvertibleHair So what happens if A-Rod sucks?

9:52	Paul Swydan: We keep laughing at the Yankees?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: If? I expect him to join his centaur herd after he hangs up his cleats.

9:53	Comment From Clin Turdle (unfortunately for Giles, his domestic violence video ruins any chances of him getting sympathy from anyone)

9:53	Paul Swydan: Is that a thing? I had no idea.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: no idea

9:55	Comment From Clin Turdle Re: “Is that a thing? I had no dea.” This is the giles video. http://www.usatoday.com/sto…

9:57	Paul Swydan: Huh. Well OK then. I had never heard of this before.

9:57	Comment From Rob Carlos Delgado, 21 votes: Surprisingly high? Surprisingly low? Or right where you expected? I only ask because I’ve heard one person who was surprised at how high it was, and I heard a second person who was surprised at how low it was.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: He was a hitting stud for a few seasons

9:58

Paul Swydan: I think right where he should have been. I wouldn’t have been displeased if he got enough to stay on the ballot, but he never would have got in. The bar is highest for corner players, and he just isn’t there. Also, given his stance against the Star Spangled Banner, he was NEVER going to get voted in. So it’s a moot point.

9:59	Comment From KB Fantasy: Ian Desmond or George Springer in ’15?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Desmond.