FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/11/14

by Paul Swydan

February 11, 2014

5:56

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to cram as much baseball into your thirsty little gullets as possible! While you wait, check out this new game that The Dark Overlord created:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgplusgame.aspx

Oh, and read my post from earlier today:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hanson-hooks-on-with-rangers/

Maybe polls later. See you soon!

8:58	Jeff Zimmerman: For some pre-chat fantasy draft porn … LABR Draft: http://www.rtsports.com/LABR-Mixed-Draft

9:01	Paul Swydan: Oh yaaa.. Let’s do this thing.

9:01	Comment From Jaack Tommy Hanson – now that’s an article topic I was legit looking forward to. I totally thought he was going to be the shit, which is weird because I don’t really care about the Braves.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Jaack approves! Good times.

9:01	Comment From Jaack Roy Oswalt retiring reminds me of the first fangraphs chat question I ever had answered, where I asked who was better Oswalt or Jonathan Sanchez.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Ha. I think it was Oswalt, but you never know, Sanchez could surprise us!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Jeff will be by in a sec, FYI.

9:02	Comment From Toby For 1st basemen, is scooping low throws included in defensive stats such as UZR? Or do they just include batted balls towards 1st?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I know DRS includes scoops. I’m not sure if UZR does, to be honest.

9:03

Comment From Nick
Paul, I think it was you who said recently that you don’t see Evan Gattis as an everyday catcher, citing his .290 OBP. But a run is a run, and Gattis carried a 110 wRC+ for the year. Can you expand on why that line won’t play behind the plate every day, or why you think Gattis can’t sustain it?

9:04	Paul Swydan: The power will play, I think. But I don’t see the OBP being there, and that combined with the poor defense is going to lead to him losing time – if not right away, then in the second half – to Bethancourt.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: One question for the crowd, besides Alex Wood, Bumgarner, and Sale, which pitcher are painful to watch throw?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Obviously if he puts up a 110 wRC+, he’ll be just fine. I just don’t buy it.

9:05	Comment From Jaack Papelbon is painful to watch, but that’s mostly because he doesn’t throw, he just stands.

9:06	Comment From Guest Who posts a higher WAR this year: Ryan Raburn, David Murphy, or Chris Young? And do any of them reach the 2 WAR mark?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Not Young, …. Maybe Raburn. On the 2 WAR mark, I am not sure.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I will say Young and Murphy. I expect Young to be over the 2 WAR threshold. Not sure about Murphy.

9:07	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:07	Comment From F U Jobu In a 12 team 30 man roster AL Roto Dynasty, please rate: Buxton, Tanaka, Choo, Abreu, McCann. Thx

9:08	Paul Swydan: Buxton Choo Tanaka McCann Abreu

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: That order looks good.

9:08	Comment From Eddie Gaedel Am I dumb for keeping Alejandro De Aza for $7 in my ottoneu keeper league?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, he may be in a platoon situation.

9:09	Paul Swydan: No, because you need to have lots of outfielders, and that is not a price where you’re losing value. You’re not gaining any value, but you gotta have some of those guys around.

9:09	Comment From F U Jobu Who has the better career; Buxton, Russell or Correa?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he can be picked up cheaper in the redraft.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I mean, I think when these rankings are being put together, that is one of the considerations, so I’ll have to say Buxton.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea, I will go with Buxton because I believe his D will be the best.

9:10	Comment From Guest Hi Paul–5×5 roto with QS not W…4th keeper needs to be a pitcher: Cingrani or Rosenthal?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Rosenthal I guess.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I mean, I guess the category switch means you have to go with Cingrani, but that’s a tough pill to swallow, because Rosenthal is probably the better pitcher.

9:12

Comment From Vic
Hi,

Need advice on a 10 team NL only 5 x 5 keeper league in its 2nd year of 5. Should I keep any of these players for $4; Polanco, Soler, Zach Lee? And any of these players for $7; Taillon, Bryant, Franco, Pederson, Syndergaard? I’m guessing the answer is no to all but Polanco but am new to keeper auctions. Thank you in advance.

9:13	Paul Swydan: As you said, I like Polanco. I could also see keeping Bryant, Franco and Syndergaard, if you’re not trying to win until the fourth or fifth year. Depends on your strategy.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe Tailon besides Polanco. I may go the trade route for the owner or two who hoard prospects.

9:14	Comment From Vic Dahl or Almora?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Just on their organization, you have to take Almora.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Pauls reason because I couldn’t come up with anything better.

9:15	Comment From KC Amateur Talent Mr. Peabody gives you access to his Way Back Machine but it can only be used for changing the Royals’ offseason. After undoing the Vargas and Chen deals, what do you do with the $12 million?

9:15	Paul Swydan: For Jeff.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think the 12M would be enough for a change. I would be nice to get rid of Hoch and Davis and have $20 to sign Garza and probably Chen.

9:17	Comment From KC Amateur Talent A drunken major league ballplayer shows up at your front door and asks to come in and hang out. Who would be the player you would most likely let in? Who would be the player you would least likely let in?

9:17	Paul Swydan: The answer to both questions is Manny Ramirez.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Manny good answer.

9:18

Comment From Rob
20 team keeper. $260. 5×5. Having a hell of time deciding what to do with Gio. He’s $23. I have him rated 20th best starter but my values have him around $20. Keep him? Throw him back and risk losing him? Throw him back, say screw it and buy either Grienke for more or Matt Cain for the same price?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: You should have some price inflation (20%), so $23 isn’t bad.

9:19	Paul Swydan: If you have him valued at $20, you can’t drop him over $3. I don’t start dropping guys unless the value gets to $5-8 in value. A few dollars here and there isn’t the end of the world in auction.

9:20	Comment From Dan Glass Hot Tub Time Machine Fangraphs currently has a bunch of teams projected to win 81-83 games (ANA, TB, CLE, NYY, TOR, SEA, KC, ARI, COL, SD). Which two are most likely to win 90+ and make the playoffs?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: TB … ANA

9:21	Paul Swydan: CLE and NYY, though I want to say ANA.

9:21	Comment From (- Hi guys! Who should I make my last keeper in a 5×5 league, OPS instead of AVG: Alex Rios or Yadi Molina? No cost or anything, my other 3 offensive keepers are C. Santana, Braun, and Machado if that makes things easier. Thanks!

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Rios, easy.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:22	Comment From mark d If Oscar Tavares is named the OD RF what will his slash line & HR total be?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: What does Oliver say?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t think his slash line is going to change whether he is the opening day starter or he comes up in June, but I’ll say that if he is the starter on Opening Day (and I don’t think he will be) he’ll top 15 homers.

9:23	Comment From Os Nos Worst Oscar best picture nominee this year?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t care or know what movies are nominated.

9:23	Paul Swydan: I don’t even know what they are this year. We had a baby last year, so I didn’t see hardly any movies.

9:23	Comment From Walt Inherited a last-place team in 14 team H2H league. Can keep 5 of the following. Braun, Reyes, Cespedes, Mauer, Gordon, Ortiz, K Morales, Kimbrel, Cobb, and S Miller. Your thoughts please.

9:24	Paul Swydan: This was the last place team? Yikes, rough crowd. Braun, Mauer, Miller, Gordon and Reyes/Cobb.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Braun, Reyes, Mauer, Cespedes, Gordon.

9:25	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Wow. Star Trek: The Motion Picture is terrible. It’s like a somehow more boring version of 2001

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Noted.

9:26	Paul Swydan: When the new one came out a couple years ago, a friend of mine implored me to watch the box set of the old movies. Let’s just say there’s a reason they rebooted it.

9:26	Comment From David Thoughts on Nats supposed interest in AJ Burnett? And while we’re at it, apparently Ryan Madson. Can Madson be this year’s Brian Wilson?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Nats should be all in on any good free agent, and those two are both good – Madson more in theory than anything. I think they should sign both, for sure.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure on Madson. I just don’t see him staying healthy. With AJ, I think it is a good move. More pitching depth is always good.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Man, I can’t believe Nick won Top Chef (we just finished it now).

9:28	Comment From Andy L Can you suggest any good beginners guides for foolhardy amateurs such as myself who are attempting to start a fantasy league from nothingness, and who have essentially no experience in fantasy as players themselves? Likely 8 team head to head 5×5. Thanks!

9:29	Paul Swydan: First things first – you need more than 8 teams. Second thing, don’t do head-to-head. Save that for football. Third thing, do Ottoneu!

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I would just keep it simple for now and find a place to host. With 8 teams, look into doing an AL or NL only league.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, that’s a good point, Jeff.

9:30	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Favorite episode of the Simpsons? Mine is The City of New York vs. Homer Simpson

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:31	Paul Swydan: “You Only Move Twice,” aka the Hank Scorpio episode. Although your choice is in the pantheon for sure.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Kendys Morales drafted in 9th round of Labr. Risky.

9:31	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Paul, please elaborate on your organization preference for Dahl over Almora. Is this just general Rockies being a bad organization, or part of you rpersonal experience?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Just in general. They don’t do a fantastic job with player development.

9:33	Comment From Jaack The projected standings for the NL West on the FG depth charts are Giants, Padres, Rockies, DBacks, Dodgers, all with 86+ wins. There is probably something wrong there, but damn that would be an awesome division to watch.

9:34	Paul Swydan: That’s not what I see: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-W But, yeah, it should be an entertaining division.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: For sure.

9:34	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Is E5 really a first round pick? That just doesn’t feel right?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think so, but I would obviously hope he slips to the second round.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: In a 15-team league, yes.

9:35	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV ESPN has E5 ranked 8th overall

9:36	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I can definitely see that.

9:37

Comment From Gila Monster
Why don’t MLB teams,especially those that own their own network offer something like a “MLB.TV Team Package” where you get local games along with all the other games? Essentially cutting out the middle man of Cable, allowing them to directly make more money/ make it so we don’t have to pay for cable which sports is singlehandedly supporting

9:38	Paul Swydan: I don’t think either side (MLB.tv or the cable companies) want it to work that way.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

9:39	Comment From Eddie Gaedel What do you think of Chase Headley this season?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Big fan.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Take average of 2012 and 2013 and that is where I stand.

9:40	Comment From Meano Eno My HBOGO stopped working so now I’m here

9:40	Paul Swydan: Best. Endorsement. Ever.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice.

9:41	Comment From Nick What has to go right for the Phillies to make the playoffs?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Howard needs to rebound. The stars need to stay off the DL. Brown and Byrd can’t regress.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Plane crashes for the Mets, Braves and Nationals?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Yeah, everything Jeff said. Plus Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez being the real, real deal.

9:43	Comment From Jimmy Key Hey guys! I’m in an AL-only league and wondering who I should target for as my ace this year. The best available options will be Darvish, Verlander and King Felix. Where should I spend my money?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I mean, you can’t really go wrong with any of them, but I would give a slight bump to Darvish.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Darvish, go early (so you can pick up one of the others) and big

9:44	Comment From Chris Is Nick Franklin worth drafting in later rnds?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and be prepared to dump him. You are hoping for trade.

9:46	Comment From Os Nos In an AL league, after Santana and Mauer are gone, who do you take at catcher?

9:47	Paul Swydan: McCann or Perez.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Perez I think.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Perez for average, Castro for power.

9:48	Comment From Dan Sandy Alderson seems to be considering starting Eric Young in LF, Chris Young in CF, Granderson in RF, and benching Lagares. I think that is incredibly stupid. Am I right?

9:48	Paul Swydan: You are correct.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but I will never try to guess what the Mets will do.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Sandy obviously didn’t read Jeff’s article on fly balls. http://www.hardballtimes.com/all-fly-balls-are-not-created-equal/

9:50	Comment From Beattie Are you guys scratching your head with the Blue Jays and Orioles? They seem very very close to contention if they could make a move but have literally done nothing.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: They both look to be trying to bottom feed and get some cheap late buys. We will see how it works out.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Definitely scratching my head with the Blue Jays, because they went all-in last year and then have done nothing this year. The Orioles not so much, because they’re on the fringes anyway.

9:52	Comment From sadder blue jay over/under on Brandon Morrow IP this season?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: 100 IP

9:53	Paul Swydan: No, just kidding, I’ll say 110.

9:53	Comment From balticfox 10 team AL only league: should I keep O. Arcia for $11? And how much would you pay for D. Fowler (12 keeper league so not many OFs decent OFs will be available).

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yes. And more than $11.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and I think I have Fowler valued around $20 for AL, but can’t remember for sure.

9:55	Comment From cry, havoc! keeper league queston. someone offered me Utley/Y. Ventura for Segura/G. Cole. he thinks i’m an idiot, right?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep. I would take both for either player by themselves.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Either that or he REALLY likes Chase Utley?

9:56	Comment From Dylan Odd question: What are your academic/professional backgrounds?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Please, that question was no more odd than the others.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I was a marketing major at Boston University, and I have an MBA from the University of Denver. Professionally, I have been working in sports in some capacity since May of 2002.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: What a loaded question. Nuclear Power Operator in the Navy, Degree in Geography, moved from map making to database management.

9:58	Paul Swydan: And then back to map making (kind of) with baseballheatmaps.com, which you should visit regularly.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I mean, like, “Maps” is in the title and junk.

9:59	Comment From Gila Monster I’m sad about the Beanpot last night. I went to Northeastern and I don’t really care if they win or not. All I care about is that BC loses.

9:59	Paul Swydan: You’re a good person, Gila Monster. Your questions will be answered more promptly in the future.

9:59	Comment From Meano Eno Paul, can you get me into BU Law school?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Probably not, but good luck!

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: The name for the website almost was thermalcartography.com. I may still own the domain.

10:00

Paul Swydan: You made the right choice, Jeff.

10:01

Paul Swydan: OK, I’m calling it guys. Thanks as always for hanging out. Back at it next week. Sorry for no polls. That’s on me. Night!

10:01

Jeff Zimmerman: Bye.

10:01

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Goodnight

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Rob

11 years ago

20 team keeper. $260. 5×5. Having a hell of time deciding what to do with Gio. He’s $23. I have him rated 20th best starter but my values have him around $20. Keep him? Throw him back and risk losing him? Throw him back, say screw it and buy either Grienke for more or Matt Cain for the same price?

Reply to Rob

anyone have an opinion?

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG