FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/16/15

by Paul Swydan

February 16, 2016

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Surprisingly few of you voted that both polls and me are stupid.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Ok Jeff is ready. Let’s do this.

9:01

Birch Barlow: Paul Swydan, you are well known for your lenient stance on crime, but suppose for a second that your house was ransacked by thugs, your family was tied up in the basement with socks in their mouths, you try to open the door but there’s too much blood on the knob….My question is about the budget.

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, here is the link to tonight’s LABR draft: http://www.rtsports.com/labr-mixed-draft

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: What budget?

9:02	Paul Swydan:

9:02	Paul Swydan: Go Jeff! Boo everyone else!

9:02	J: Why is everyone so high on Wacha? Because of his age and velocity? I’ve seen him ranked around the top 25 SP and I just don’t get how he’s that high.

9:03	Paul Swydan: His K rate really spiked after April, IIRC.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not that high on him either. Probably top 40 though

9:03	Paul Swydan: Hmmm, nope, I guess it kind of washed out in the end.

9:04	Larry Eagle: Is this the best year in recent memory to pick at the end of a snake draft?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Probably last year was, but each successive year gets better, because the industry is pumping prospects out earlier each year, it seems.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s better, but not great. The top four and their 2nd rounders will likely have the most surplus value

9:05	Andrew B.: McCullers, Samardzija, Ventura, Smyly, and/or Iglesias?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Did I miss a question?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’ll vote McCullers or Iglesias, though if you’re more risk averse, Samardzija.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Iglesias over the rest if we are just picking one.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Oh actually – he said pick two.

9:06	Paul Swydan: i guess i didn’t post that part

9:07	Joe: Any advice on how to break into the fantasy baseball writing industry?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Write a lot. Read more than you write. Be a good self promoter.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Find a place, even your own and write on a consistent basis. People want to know you can put out consistent work

9:08	Train: Poll questions like that make me laugh.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Then my work here is done!

9:09

Tampa Quandry: Tampa beat writer thinks J Loney gets traded, but it takes two to tango – why would anyone give up a prospect for Loney – If they could sign J Morneau – for $4-$6 mil ? Isnt Logan Morrison (more) Likely the odd man out? Hit .219 last year & was a non tender candidate. SEA wanted him gone. Couldnt he be released/cut.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I would think it less likely that they release/cut the guy they just traded for (Morrison) but I suppose you never know. I bet the Rays are hoping this works itself out one way or another during spring training.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Rays wait on Loney and trade him for team which gets an injury. He could bring back a AAAA bullpen arm which is fine

9:10

Train: AL only league, need to protect 5 since we have a new expansion team. $260 cap, 23 spots.Definitely keeping Correa ($10), Cain ($10), sale ($35) and kluber ($15). Down to my last keeper are darvish ($7), McCullers ($10), Gausman ($5), Brad Miller ($2), Andrew Miller ($1), or Calhoun ($15). I’m leaning darvish or McCullers, what say you? Thanks!

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Darvish – easy choice with talent and price

9:11	Paul Swydan: I would keep Darvish. Longer track record and $3 cheaper.

9:11	DK: In my 1st yr keeper draft I took Segura as my SS. At the time I liked the upside. Now I’m scared of how low the floor is. Semien is still there. Claim him y/n

9:12	Paul Swydan: Probably worth claiming, yes. I am not huge on Semien, but I am way less huge on Segura.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Worth the claim right now. Can drop later.

9:12	The Dude of NY: Paul, why are you rooting for Jeff Erickson in LABR? There are multiple Fangraphs writers competing!

9:13	Paul Swydan: Hey I love Jeff Erickson! In a past life, I worked as a consultant for Rotowire, working the phones to land them radio gigs. Peter and Jeff are great guys.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now my money is Bell, Votto was a great get

9:13	Rick: PECOTA likes the Rays to win the AL East. Is this madness?

9:14	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. They’re not going to be my pick, but they’re at the very least a .500 team, and the teams in that division are once again packed tightly together.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: PECOTA has some results I can’t explain. Just looking at the Royals, I have a ton of questions.

9:16	hanna: Why don’t you share your chat site with ESPN? They are desperate.

9:16	Paul Swydan: It’s not our chat site, it’s a private business created by one of our readers. (I think it’s one of our readers. Or someone else who knows Cameron)

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I did know they wanted chats so bad and some like KLaw still do chats.

9:17	Trade me to a contender: Knowing catchers usually don’t get traded mid season, if the first three months Lucroy is hot outta the gate, what do you see that could realistically happen

9:18	Paul Swydan: Catchers don’t usually get traded midseason, but Lucroy isn’t a usual catcher, and if he comes out of the gate looking like he is capable, the market for him will heat up in a hurry.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I could, but if I was a team looking for one, I would get them way before the trade deadline to begin working with the pitchers immediately.

9:18	The Dude of NY: Who has a better career: Schwarber of Conforto?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Conforto.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so too. Schwarber may end up at 1B killing some of his value.

9:19	The Dude of NY: Any part of DC’s best and worst transaction lists you disagree with?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Not at first glance, no. I need to go back through it, I suppose.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: No. Maybe some of the 8-10 picks I would have traded out with the honorable mentions. Good overall

9:21	Justin: NL only 250 cap…decimated keepers from championship run last year…my pollock$19 for his dperalta$6/wacha$11/span $16?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Nah.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: No, you should be able to get a little more at least.

9:22	Cousin Mose: Which has a higher probability, in your estimation: Miggy top 10 in 6×6 formats or Rendon top 50 in 6×6?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Wow that’s a good question.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Rendon

9:23	Paul Swydan: Probably Rendon.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Miggy breaking top 10 means a season staying healthy and ’13 production

9:23	kevinthecomic: Any way to get this video ad player to the right of the chat to stop playing? It is wreaking havoc with the processing speed.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see it so Adblock must work

9:24	Paul Swydan: I’m sorry. We don’t like them either. Take a screenshot, and send the pic with your browser info to our contact page.

9:25	The Dude of NY: I like how Jeff E embraced the risk and went C Seager/Sano back to back.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Hope it’s still year of the prospect.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Sano may end up just a Util, could handcuff him for a bit

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Sporer and Collette with Lindor and Correra

9:26	kevinthecomic: Any chance the mainstream figures out that Scioscia is a bad manager, or do I need to start making my peace with the fact that I will one day see his bust in the HOF?

9:27	Paul Swydan: He’s 21-27 in the postseason and has won just one postseason series in a decade. I don’t think you need to be too worried about his HoF bust.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: The mainstream doesn’t matter and kind of know. The owner is the only one who matters. And what Paul said on the HOF

9:28	CamdenWarehouse: @kevin – make your flash player require positive action to run.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I don’t know what this means, but I hope it’s helpful!

9:28	hanna: Is the Nat’s rotation still as good as it was last year? Its was top five after they got Scherzer, they lost Fister but are expecting Giolloto at some point. Are they still top five?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, Indians and Mets are better. Not sure who else.

9:29	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. We have them as essentially tied for 3rd best in the depth charts right now.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Cubs

9:30	Matt: What is the real difference between Bryant and Sano? I feel like Bryant is considered elite already and Sano isn’t. But they seem remarkably similar.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Well for one thing, Bryant plays third, and Sano is being pushed to the outfield.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Production to this point in their careers. And Bryant plays better D

9:31	Rick: Sleeperiest teams in the AL and NL?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Twins and Marlins.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: A’s and S.D.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: AL has less teams rebuilding

9:32

Ed in Iowa: Hello Fellas! I’ve been playing around with surplus value stuff relative to the possibility of a Mike Trout trade. I’ve changed my mind (compared to a previous comment of mine you posted). I think the Red Sox, Dodgers or Cubs could come up with mutually beneficial offers. I’m not saying it’s likely, just possible. But that got me wondering: Jeff’s awesome piece on prospect valuation in THT clearly indicates that grade 55 prospects are worth much, much less than grade 65 prospects; but, in a system as barren as the Angels is, ought they to place some extra emphasis on quantity over quality? Like maybe Schwarber plus 6 grade 50/55 prospects (for Trout) would be smarter than just Schwarber, Soler and Hendricks, even though the later would look more even in a surplus value sort of comparison? I pick the Cubs just because I know them best, but the same idea could apply for the Sox and Dodgers. Thoughts?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I think you’re right on, but that the Angels will essentially be screwed publicly if they ever trade Trout. He’s their Kobe.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the idea with maybe Byant, but the Angels won’t do it until last half season, if ever.

9:34	Mike: I currently work as an analyst helping state child welfare agencies learn to manage by data and achieve better outcomes for children. Would a pick-up line along the lines of “I save children’s lives for my job” be effective? I wouldn’t ever use it, but I’m curious what you think.

9:35	Paul Swydan: You’re asking the wrong person. I’ve literally never successfully executed a pick-up line. The first time I asked my wife out, she told me no. She had to get used to the idea of me, because I’m obviously super obnoxious.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: No, don’t use it. You could bring it up later in the evening.

9:36	Zach: How many games do you see Trea Turner getting at the Major League level this season?

9:37	Paul Swydan: 80 or so? It’ll probably take the Nats half the season to realize that Stephen Drew is garbage.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe less. could be interesting. I have a recent Twitter poll in this subject and can’t find it.

9:38	Marc: Deadpool was beautiful. No question just thought all should know

9:38	ssf: Rougned the Elder is gonna lead all 2B in WAR this season. Just letting you know now so it doesn’t take you by surprise.

9:39	Paul Swydan: people just leaving us comments now. sup with that. ask us something, gosh.

9:39	Marc: Over under 10% chance Cutch loves Pittsburgh so much he’s willing to take a pay cut* and stay a pirate for life/the Pirates offer a deal in the realm of possibility of him accepting?

9:39	Paul Swydan: under

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Under, the Pirates will need to pay market rate

9:39	Paul Swydan: but good luck to the pirates ticket sales people if the team decides to lowball him.

9:40	Paul Swydan: it worked out so well when they lowballed bonds

9:40	The Dude of NY: Jeff, I found your Trea Turner tweet! https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman/status/691650808446726144

9:40	Cody: Here’s the Trea Turner tweet you were referencing: https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman/status/691650808446726144

9:40	Paul Swydan: see now THOSE are helpful comments at least

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks, so around 80 games says the crowd.

9:41	The Dude of NY: So Paul, how about that weather?

9:42	Paul Swydan: the bottoms of my downspouts all fell off today, because the water was running through them like crazy, but there was still ice inside them too, and they couldnt handle the weight. goooooood times.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Is it not going to be 70 tomorrow in Boston like it is here in the Great Plains

9:42	Paul Swydan: no but it will be upper 40s, so at least i won’t have to wear a coat!

9:43	kevinthecomic: @CamdenWarehouse — thanks man, that took care of it 🙂

9:43	Paul Swydan: beauty

9:43	DK: Can Domingo Santana make enough contact to be a factor?

9:43	Paul Swydan: yes. i really like him.

9:43	Paul Swydan: he’s on my sleeper list for sure.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: He is going to walk the rope I think. It will be interesting with him.

9:44	Adam: Does Swihart get the Red Sox a Lucroy/Will Smith package?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I don

9:44	Paul Swydan: I don

9:44	Paul Swydan: t think so.

9:44	Paul Swydan: bah, sorry, i know how to type, i swear

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Not both, IMO.

9:45	CamdenWarehouse: What happened to the Monday and Tuesday daytime chats?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Well yesterday was technically a holiday. As for today, I’m not sure. I spent the whole day at a museum with the kids, so I was out of the loop today.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure.

9:45	Larry Eagle: Is there a live link to the LABR draft?

9:45	Paul Swydan: We posted it at the top of the drat.

9:45	Paul Swydan: draft

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Someone needs to cut Paul off

9:46	Paul Swydan: Sadly, I’m sober.

9:46	von Schloss: Dodgers or Giants… who has a better infield this year?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I think Giants, but it’s close.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I will disagree, Paul. But like you said, it is close.

9:48	Rick: What is your favorite ballpark concession, either in general (e.g., hot dogs) or in particular (e.g., Dodger dogs)?

9:48	Paul Swydan: In general, hot dogs and peanuts.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Rockie dog

9:48	Paul Swydan: In specific, the Helton Burger at Coors Field.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: and bags of sunflower seeds

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Bigs Ranch

9:49	rsouddress: Since Strasburg wants to test free agency next year, where will he land?

9:49	Paul Swydan: If I had to guess, I’d say it’s that team that hasn’t signed any free agents this offseason.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Tigers, he seems like the yearly Tiger FA pickup

9:50	Rick: Are there player profiles listed somewhere like fangraghs+2015?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yes they went live today. And now they’re free!

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: On each player’s page

9:51	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/player-caps-now-on-the-player-pages/

9:51

The Cincinnati Kid: Just sending this up so someone sees it, I know it’s not you guys and I also realize as a business model, they are necessary: but the ads have been shutting my computer down since November. (I already sent an e-mail from the Contact Us form.) It’s just this site–no other Flash sites, etc. Sorry to complain, love the site though

9:52	Paul Swydan: Thank you for sharing. I apologize for the continued troubles.

9:52

Ed in Iowa: I have this hunch that if Babe Ruth played now he would be good to very good, but not generationally awesome. He played in an era when an overwhelming majority of current players weren’t allowed to play, for instance. I think there are other reasons to believe that the game is way tougher now. I’d love to see some research on this. Might we not compare his OPS in his first two at bats of the day against 3+ WAR pitchers and compare them with Mays, Pujols, Bonds, etc. Or some other such cleverness to attempt to get around the multitude of ways in which the game is different now?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Is this a theory you developed after watching “Trainwreck” ??? 🙂

9:53	Paul Swydan: (Colin Quinn goes on a similar rant during that movie.)

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I think if you plunked Ruth down at 25, he would struggle big time. If he was able to grow from age 15 to the majors, I think he would be pretty good.

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think it’s a fair point, but I wouldn’t know how to go about researching it.

9:55	Guest: How about Fangraphs members getting an ad free site? I tend not to block ads because I understand the need for revenue

9:55	Paul Swydan: This was a recurring comment in David Appelman’s post today. It’s something we’ll take under advisement for sure.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: We can let the Dark Overlord know and I think he addressed this exact question in the comments today

9:56	Kylo Ren: $260 6×6 keeper league. Already keeping Rizzo (28), Betts (26), Xander (7), Bryant (6) and Odorizzi (6). Should I keep Kipnis (14) or Joc (6) at all?

9:56	Paul Swydan: If Mookie qualifies at 2B, I’d keep Joc. If he doesn’t…..probably still Joc, but I could see keeping Kipnis.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Kipnis at least and I would try Joc for one more season. He could produce $25 and you will be kicking yourself for giving up early

9:57	Paul Swydan: Oh I’m sorry. I misread. I’d keep both.

9:58	Adam: Should be fun for a college kid from BC or Northeastern to have to face Carlos Marmol during the Red Sox first exhibition game of the spring.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I hope Marmol is good, but if he isn’t, hopefully he can at least entertain me by plunking a half dozen BC hitters.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I would go to bat in full body armor.

9:58	hanna: Mlb.com did a piece talking to Trout’s trainer. In it he said that Trout has worked on explosiveness in the legs. Does explosiveness in the legs lead to more stolen bases? If so, does that make Trout the clear number one over Harper?

9:59	Paul Swydan: No puff piece like that should ever factor too heavily into your considerations. Having said that, I still have Trout as my number one.