FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/24/15

by Paul Swydan

February 24, 2015

6:22	Paul Swydan: Hi guys!

6:22	Paul Swydan: 9 pm ET. Get your questions in now. I have to cook dinner. OK thanks bye!

7:02	Paul Swydan: ONE RULE FOR TONIGHT – NO PARKS AND RECS SPOILERS. I’m not going to watch it until after the chat because I put your happiness before my own. Don’t spoil it for me!!!

9:01	Paul Swydan: One sec.

9:01	Comment From Pale Hose Parks and Rec is on at 10 tonight. We can’t spoil. I’m ordering calzones.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Does Tom’s Bistro make cal-zone-es? (weird ben wyatt italian voice)

9:02	Paul Swydan: Also, phew!

9:03	Paul Swydan: Also, I have no idea where Jeff is. So you’re stuck with me for now.

9:03	Comment From Vic Romano If Alcantara gets 500 AB’s….is he a 20/20 guy? 15/15?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I will confidently say 15/15, and would easily believe 15 HRs/20 SBs, but I’ll hold off on saying definitely 20/20. Having said that, he’s still likely to have a low batting average, so it won’t be all sunshine and puppies.

9:04	Comment From Dave Does Drew Smyly have a point when he says its unfair that international FA’s get bonus’ like Moncada’s $30m but the best ranked players of a similar age and same amount of promise that go trhough the draft system get quite significantly less?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Well, it depends on how he means it. If he means Moncada is getting too much money, then no. If he means that American amateurs should get more, then yes.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Having said that, I see Buxton as a Moncada comp. It’s not like every tom, dick and harry would be getting a $30 million bonus if they abolished the draft.

9:05

Comment From Forsyth
Heard Farrell talk about Vic being RF. This is all posturing, right? Or are they really going to do a 110 game per player split between CF and RF for the trio? Also, while I hated hearing the news because I am a Mookie fan boy, I also liked hearing it because if they were even close to considering a trade for Betts, I can’t imagine they would sit there and say he’s a 4th OF.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I say it’s all posturing, yes. Posturing to be behind Victorino and keep him happy and increase his trade value, and also posturing of giving the appearance that the rookie Betts needs to earn his playing time.

9:06	Comment From TeddyBrosevelt Hey Paul, thanks for the chat! I’m having a touch time picking a SP to keep in my standard 5×5 H2H league. Which one guy would you keep? Options are: Anibal Sanchez, Yordano Ventura, Chris Archer, James Paxton

9:07	Paul Swydan: Assuming you’re keeping him for more than one year, I’ll go Ventura. I would say Archer, but he has to pitch against the AL East a lot. Ventura gets to pitch against the Twins a lot.

9:07	Comment From Toby Why do we not simply express most stats in standard deviations? Wouldn’t it be helpful to have everything on a common scale?

9:09

Paul Swydan: I think that’s more or less why we like rate stats like wRC+ and FIP-. They are similar to standard deviations, except they are more intuitively understood. But yes, it would be helpful to have standard deviations away from league average and/or replacement level to go with each particular stat.

9:09	Comment From El Guapo Thoughts on the marvelous Adrian Beltre for fantasy. He of the perpetually bad hammies. Always drop a guy a year too early instead of a year too late? Have to choose between him and Puig in a league that counts K’s against hitters.

9:10	Paul Swydan: If the choice is Beltre or Puig, I keep Puig, but Beltre should be fine. There are obviously the injury and crappy lineup concerns (if you’re playing 5×5) but third base still isn’t exactly a hot bed of talent, so he’s still near the top.

9:10

Comment From Pale Hose
I did a little strength of schedule analysis using projected WAR from the depth chart page. The Orioles have the toughest schedule facing a 35.3 WAR team on average (roughly Royals). The Nationals have the easiest facing 28.4 WAR on average (roughly Brewers). AL teams face 34.3 WAR on average and NL teams face 30.8 WAR on average. Anything in there interesting/surprising?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Definitely that is all interesting. Surprising, not as much. But thank you nonetheless!

9:11	Comment From El Guapo Picking Billy Hamilton in the second round as Pods did in LABR draft was a case of a smart man outsmarting himself, right? In other words, how to balance what he is actually worth against where you think you need to take a guy…

9:11	Paul Swydan: I would lean in that direction, yes. But MP made up for it with the rest of his draft, so I think it worked out.

9:11

Comment From Arnie
Since I have stated using this site a couple of weeks ago, I’ve got to say I really enjoy your chats. In AL keeper league $280 auction 5×5. Do I trade Rusney Castillo and Neftai Feliz both $10 and can keep this year and next for a $10 Corey Kluber who I can only keep this year. Thanks for your advice, it’s appreciated

9:12	Paul Swydan: Wow, thank you for saying that. Once you’re here longer, you’ll realize I’m the dumbest of the people who do chats, haha. And yeah, I do that trade in a heartbeat.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Assuming you’re trying to win this year, that is.

9:12	Comment From Minty What kind of optimism, if any, should we have for Everth in Baltimore?

9:13	Paul Swydan: The optimism that if any of the starters go down, that you have a competent backup who could hit .280 and steal 20-30 bags. Not bad for a backup.

9:13	Comment From Big+Easy Any chance Hanley plays 5 games at SS this year?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I would say no. When Xander gets a breather, Brock Holt, aka the Teacher’s Pet, will be the one who gets the nod at shortstop.

9:14	Comment From Ben Over/under 3.5 war for Marcus Stroman?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the over!

9:15	Comment From Sadistic Greco-Roman Arena Spectator If you two and your fellow FanGraphs contributors were engaged a free-for-all fight to the death, who would you have slated for winning?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Well, Jeff was in the Navy, so I’d definitely take him over me. Having said that, I like my odds overall. Looooot of lightweights on our team.

9:16	Comment From Forsyth Could the Sox logjam be solved by sending Holt to AAA? Hanley and Betts could spell 2B/3B/SS (mostly Betts), and having a bench of Craig, Nava, Vic would be pretty stout.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Yeah, but I wouldn’t bet on that. Farrell loves Holt, and Holt will basically have to play himself off the roster, especially because he has the reputation for being able to play every position.

9:17	Comment From Biggy Would your number one pick in an all time draft be Ruth, Mays, Mantle, josh Gibson, Ted Williams, or other?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Hmmm, I’d like to say Ted Williams since obviously I’m a Red Sox homer, but you build teams up the middle, so it’d have to be Mays or Gibson.

9:18

Comment From zwibi
Why is there never any love for Jesse Winker in fantasy? Granted the guy isn’t that great at defense but that doesnt concern us. But Keith Law describes him as a 18-22 homer guy in that park with a .400 OBP. His hit tool is one of the best in the minors and he just dominated the AFL. Why is he rarely mentioned in fantasy circles???

9:20	Paul Swydan: Two reasons: 1. He’s not expected up before 2016 (he only has 92 PA at Double-A). 2. The Reds are still running a 1990s style organization, and as such haven’t really earned trust the way some other organizations have.

9:20	Comment From Biggy Last keeper: Odor or Gausman? Would it be easier to find a pitcher than a possibly average 2b ( we kep

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yes, it would. Keep Odor.

9:21

Comment From Alice Cooper
Keeper question. 6×6. 12 teams mixed… I can keep David Price for 1 more season or keep 2 of Cobb, J Harrison or Phil Hughes and control their rights for up to 3 years each. Leaning towards Cobb+Harrison but concerned about Harrison coming back to earth. Price I feel is more of an “all-in” move. Thoughts?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Price is definitely the all-in move, but it’s less of a risk given that Harrison will come down to earth and that Cobb has to pitch in the AL East. I’d roll with Price.

9:21	Comment From Vic Romano In a league where players can be kept forever without costs or penalties….how crazy am I for thinking about keeping Bryant and/or Pederson instead of Ellsbury and/or Hamels?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I’d probably keep Ellsbury over Pederson, but I wouldn’t call you crazy for rolling with Bryant over Ellsbury.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t want to keep Hamels until I knew which team he was going to be pitching for long-term, which, you won’t before the season starts.

9:22	Comment From Lenard Macklin, you sonuvabitch!

9:22	Paul Swydan: 38 minutes to go!

9:22	Comment From Lenard Chris and Ann better be on tonight or I will literally cry.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Don’t care that much about Chris, but the show’s initial plots literally revolved around Ann Perkins. Her not being on tonight would be a travesty.

9:23	Comment From Chris How are arbitration hearings scheduled? It seems like we just hear about them one-by-one, are there specific dates that the team and player have to either agree/disagree by?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Yes, there are dates along the way. Once guys file their binding numbers, hearings are scheduled for late January/early February. It is all known in advance for the parties involved, though we don’t always find about it in a timely fashion. Though we do now more than we used to.

9:25	Comment From Craig Paul NL only 5×5 up to 15 keepers, 11 teams. Would you keep Worley for $6, I’m leaning yes but would appreciate your input, thanks

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi, sorry about leaving you alone with Paul

9:26	Paul Swydan: I lean yes too because that’s a lot of keepers for an NL only team, but I would hope you could do better.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Try again

9:27	Comment From Andy Keep one ($260 budget): $23 Bumgarner, $14 Lester, $7 Mesoraco

9:28	Paul Swydan: I can only has one???? Mesoraco.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: One last try

9:30	Paul Swydan: Jeff is still having connectivity issues, you guys. Serves him right for living in Kansas.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:31	Comment From Biggy Would you keep Strasburg over Puig if you already had trout, Cabrera, rizzo, and Mccuthe

9:31	Paul Swydan: I would not, sir. I would keep Puig.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Puig, easy

9:32	Comment From Conor My first pick ever would be Bonds. In a heartbeat.

9:32	Paul Swydan: THAT WASN’T ONE OF THE CHOICES, CONOR.

9:32	Comment From Guest Jeff doesn’t have the glory of Google Fiber yet?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Jeff can’t even get DSL out here in the sticks

9:33	Paul Swydan: It would appear that he doesn’t. But when he does, I bet he’ll be all like:

9:33	Comment From Lenard http://38.media.tumblr.com/…

9:33	Comment From Vic Romano “Other” was one of the choices….

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yeah well his name isn’t Barry Other. Duh.

9:34	Comment From Quinn What are the odds that Bryant is a RF and Baez is a bust and all of these people freaking out about the Cubs IF for the past 2 years have been wasting their time?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think it would be LF for Bryant, not RF. Soler is RF. I think there is a good chance that at least one of those things happens, and a decent chance that two happen, but even if they do, the Cubs are still going to have a legit good offense.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: 10%, I think Baez will bust and Bryant will be at 3B

9:35	Comment From Amish Andy In a keeper auction league, I have Rendon for $1. I should trade him for Cano at $25, right? I mean, if I’m trying to win this year?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I would say hell no, they may be close to the same value and buy a stud closer or 2 with the extra $24

9:37

9:37	Comment From AA Does getting Yoan, make a hamels trade more likely for the Bo Sox?

9:37	Paul Swydan: See the above GIF.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:38

Comment From Dave in London
My draft is in 4 weeks, and teams in my AL-only, 11-team league pay heavily for Saves. I have Doolittle, but I’m really concerned about him.Would you recommend: 1) Getting Clipper, who might cost $15-17 this year 2) Paying for an aging warhorse like Rodney or Nathan to ensure I have a closer 3) Taking a chance on someone like Boxberger or A. Miller, who might assume the closer’s job 4) Some other strategy?

9:39	Paul Swydan: 2 or 3. Def wouldn’t pay that much for Clippard, even though I too am concerned about Doolittle.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I use the #3 approach

9:40

Comment From Dave in London
Thanks as always for your insight, Paul. When you evaluate at a minor league hitter getting a shot at full-time job (eg, this year Pompey, Souza, Odor), are there any stats that you look at closely? Some say minor league strikeouts aren’t a big concern. How about pitchers? I tend to discount ERA and look at K/IP and K/BB. Thoughts?

9:41

Paul Swydan: Honestly, with minor league pitchers, it’s more about how much rope he is going to have with the big club, the scouting reports and the situation he’ll find himself in. And also whether or not he starts right away. Like last year with Stroman, he had everything working, but people who grabbed him when he came up had to endure him relieving for 2-3 weeks. Not everyone can handle that, and I think those things are more important than his rate stats.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: For hitters I use my Zobrist value of K, BB, and XBH% (do they have good plate discipline and can they knock the shit out of the ball. For pitchers, K%-BB% with GB% weighted a bit

9:42	Comment From Rob What do we make of Hanley showing up weighing 240? Good thing? Bad thing? For some reason I’m reminded of Kipnis bulking up, losing flexibility and then never getting his oblique right. Talk me down.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t care about the weight at all. I love how people want CC to bulk back up or this time last season when everyone was making a big deal about Trout and he just went out and won the MVP

9:44	Paul Swydan: I make absolutely nothing out of it. It’s 15 lbs above his list weight, and his list weight is almost certainly outdated. Also, he’s playing left field now, and as such he doesn’t need as much flexibility. Also, Kipnis’ injury doesn’t have any bearing on Ramirez’s.

9:44	Comment From Minty For fantasy, is it worth it to sign any pitcher to a 4 year deal? I have Stroman at $5/$6/$7 or $4/$5/$6/$7.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Let me put it to you this way. If he sucks in four years, you won’t be kicking yourself for having a $7 albatross. If he’s still awesome, you’ll be furious for losing a $7 Stroman.

9:45	Paul Swydan: If it was something like $17/$18/$19/$20, that might be a different story, but where you have him, ya, I do the four years in a heartbeat.

9:47

Jeff Zimmerman: OK, here is how value pitcher keepers. How much will they cost on the open market, halve the value. This is the max you should go IMO with pitchers. If 50% of your pitchers bust, you are still breaking even.

ex Stroman worth $12 on open market, I would try to keep his keeper value under $6.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Jeff, always dropping science.

9:48	Comment From Bobbo Rizzo or Rendon to start a team?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Rendon for me, be it fantasy or real life.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I would go with Rendon

9:48	Comment From Guest Barry Bonds is must follow Twitter. He seems so happy and cool riding his bike, casually sipping coffee while wearing google glass,driving a Tesla, and hanging out with Japanese businessmen. All while being the best baseball player of all time

9:49	Paul Swydan: I mean, I get what you’re saying, but not for me. I don’t follow any athlete accounts. When an athlete does something funny or refreshing, it’ll get RT’d into my timeline.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I guess ,… sounds like my aunts facebook page

9:49	Paul Swydan: Your aunt has a Tesla!?!?!?!?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably one of her personalities does

9:50	Paul Swydan: …..Moving on….

9:50	Comment From Quin 6×6 keep forever league. Trading Miguel Cabrera for Betts, Lucroy, and Paxton. I already have Goldschmidt. Yay or nay?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I want a better pitcher than Paxton. Paxton might be good, but he hasn’t proven anything.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I would say no, I would get a little more established talent. A pitcher could be done tomorrow, catchers always get hurt and Betts hasn’t proved much in the majors yet.

9:52	Comment From Total Clown If you were Jays GM, what would you do at 2b? One of the options on the roster now or try to add someone else?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I would just start Devon Travis.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, They need to find out how good Travis in the majors sometime.

9:53	Comment From Mike Do you know if anyone on Rotographs is going to do some sort of keeper/dynasty rankings, if not for all players at least for prospects?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. Jeff?

9:53	Paul Swydan: If nothing else, it’s here now for the RG’ers to see.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: No one has taken that up yet.

9:54	Comment From Guest Can you find JBJ and Cechinni a nice home? I think they will be quality major leaguers , but they are second division starters on the Red Sox

9:55	Paul Swydan: No. I’d prefer they just stay and be backups on the Red Sox. 🙂 Unless I can have Kimbrel. If you want to do Bradley and Cecchini for Kimbrel, that’s cool. Let’s do that.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they may be headed to Philly eventually for Hamels

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’d rather have Kimbrel.

9:56	Paul Swydan: No offense, Cole.

9:56	Comment From Scott Jeff, how do you value pitcher keepers in a non-auction league?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Not very high, I almost always keep hitters. There are only ab out 10 pitchers I would consider keeping right now.

9:57	Comment From John who lives in NC? we didnt have even 1/2″ today, but oh boy was everything closed in wilmington

9:57	Paul Swydan: Cameron lives in NC. I live in MA, Jeff lives in KS.

9:58	Comment From Lou Brekate 14 team dynasty with 30 man rosters (add obp, doubles, and triples) and prospect system with 100 or so prospects kept. What’s a fair return for Ellsbury if I’m rebuilding with an eye on 2017?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I don’t see why the year you’re rebuilding for should have any effect on the return you get.