FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/25/14

by Paul Swydan

February 25, 2014

5:55

Paul Swydan: HI EVERYBODY!

At 9 pm ET, we’ll rap about some baseball things. And whatever else is on your mind. I finally saw Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2 this past weekend, so we can talk about that. Or The Americans, which comes back tomorrow – woo hoo! Or we can just stick to baseball. Whatever floats your schooner.

See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hey guys, let’s do this.

9:01	Comment From Garth Vader For fantasy draft purposes: Am I better off caring about wOBA more than wRC+ for projections? My thought being that I don’t care what league or park context the guy is putting up the numbers, just that he IS putting up the numbers.

9:03

Paul Swydan: It’s a fair point, but you also may be misled by wOBA. A lot of wOBA is your on-base percentage, so you still might not end up doing all that well. For instance, Mark Trumbo only had a .322 wOBA last year. Based on that, you’d never draft him. But if he hits 34 bombs and drives in 100 again, then he’s a stud. So, there isn’t one metric that you can use by itself, IMO.

9:03	Comment From City Beer Store Given current state, if you had the choice which side of this trade would you take? Goldy+Kh.Davis or Kemp+M.Adams?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Not even a question, the Goldy side. Davis and Goldy are both going to play, and the other two might not play much, if at all.

9:04	Comment From Don I know this is a pretty open ended question, but what should I expect to get for Byron Buxton ($5) in an Otto pts league? I was offered Stephenson and Chris Owings, which seemed insulting…

9:05	Paul Swydan: Not insulting per se, Stephenson is a stud. But I would want more. I don’t expect Owings to be a rosterable player in most fantasy formats, even Ottoneu.

9:05

Comment From Gila Monster
This question is aimed at Paul, but I’d like to hear both of your opinion. I wrote a bit of a piece in argument that the Red Sox should not extend David Ortiz unless it would be vesting/incentive based. I based my argument on saying it was very risky considering only 5 1B/DH players since 1973 have posted WAR above 2 after their age 38 season. Four were first ballot HoFer and they all became negative WAR players after that season. I suggested the market for Ortiz would be limited and weak why breaking down the market, and worst comes to worset, they slap a QO on him. If he moves on, good for him. The Red Sox do well when letting their stars move on. But I was called a bad fan, unappreciative, and not a David Ortiz believer. Do you think my belief in a valid one and people have difficulty taking their fanboy hat off and logical GM cap on? Or are they right?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone, sorry for the delay.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Fans want to see Ortiz, pay him.

9:07

Paul Swydan: I think you have a very good point. Having said that, being a GM/running a team isn’t just about being logical, you have to win over the clubhouse as well, and the other 29 clubhouses if you want guys to come play for you. Selling out Ortiz at this point would probably do more damage than it saves you on the field. And then there’s also the chance that he will still produce, and furthermore, what Jeff said.

9:07	Comment From Andy5 Great week of TV! Archer returned after a 2 week layoff. The Americans are back tomorrow. And I’m especially excited for season 2 of the History Channel’s Vikings!

9:08	Paul Swydan: You had me right up to the History channel thing. Also, don’t spoil this week’s Archer for me, I didn’t see it yet!

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:08	Comment From Andy5 Looking for a backup 2B on my waiver wire and the pickings are slim. Would you prefer Scooter Gennett or Josh Rutledge? I like the upside of Rutledge, but am not sure about his role.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I would prefer Gennett, since his playing time is more assured, but I’m not bullish on either. Product of BABIPs.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Might be a spot for Dean Anna, who I’m told is now the first option if/when Brian Roberts gets hurt.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take Gennett on playing time. I looks like Ruthledge may not be starting.

9:09	Comment From Chief Wahoo Cory Kluber, is he for real or was last year as good as he gets? I’m a big Indian fan and never saw anything in his past that made me think he was capable of last year’s numbers. Can he come anywhere near repeating his performance in the upcoming season?

9:10	Paul Swydan: He was so good last year that he has room for both things to be true. I would bet on him being 85-90% of what he was last year, which will still be decent. A good #4 at least.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: He could repeat K and BB, but the runs he allows could be all over the place.

9:10	Comment From Brad Fantasy question. I’m punting 2014 and going for it in 2015. I got offered puig for cano? Thoughts? Thank you.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Punting already, why play?

9:11	Paul Swydan: It’s not an awful idea, but I still expect Cano to be very good next year and second base is the weaker position.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like the comments about Puig ballooning up. Puig could bust hard.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I would want more than just Puig, in other words.

9:12	Comment From Josh Donaldson I don’t seem to be getting much respect for the numbers I put up last year. I think I can easily hit 20 dingers again although I admit my batting average might slip to .270 or so. Do you believe me?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I believe you Josh Donaldson. I believe you.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I would believe in you more if you did it for more than one season.

9:13	Comment From Merry Olde England Would the Rockies be a good fit for Stephen Drew? Their first round pick is protected, and they could play him at 2B until Tulo gets injured.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: and you expect the Rockies to make a rational move?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. Second base isn’t the easiest transition before, and Drew has never played there in his major league career.

9:14	Comment From Rocket Roger Does Jonathan Schoop become the O’s every day 2B early this season? What does his line look like at the end of the year?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I think this is going to be one of the most interesting battles in spring training. I’ll say something like .275/.340/.390.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, but I am not a fan of Schoop from what I have seen of him. Not sure on the line, decent AVG, low power.

9:16	Comment From A Tribe Called Kipnis Where do you think The Americans story goes this year? Do they go Mr. & Mrs. Smith? Does one of the kids rat out mom and dad? Is John Boy a mole?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I wish at some point to catch up to season 1.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I have no idea. I really don’t. The way season 1 ended was so beautiful because it left literally every option open.

9:17	Comment From Brandon Fantasy keepers: I’m about to pull the trigger on a deal giving Jason Heyward, Clay Buchholz, Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, and a 6th rounder for Ryan Braun, Anibal Sanchez, Ian Desmond, Michael Bourn, and an 11th rounder. I wanted to know your opinion on the trade.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the Braun side. All the players you are giving up have bigger warts.

9:19	Paul Swydan: I like Braun more than Heyward, and I like Sanchez more than Buchholz, and then I like Desmond a touch more than Reyes. Bourn for Granderson is a scratch. Yeah, I like what you’re getting.

9:19	Comment From A Tribe Called Kipnis Future closer that never was department: is Vinnie Pestano worth stashing in super deep leagues once Cody Allen is gone?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: and Axford?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. Maybe he’ll be the third option at closer, but he’s not a great third option and not of much value because he doesn’t get a ton of Ks.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: I would like to see a Pestano fastball speed reading first before picking him up.

9:21

Comment From Max
In comparing projections to mock drafts here on FG, it seems as though Jon Lester is repeatedly being drafted higher than where he ranks in the projections. What are we getting with Lester 2014? Is it his consistency that has him being drafted over Tanaka/Bailey/Fister/Salazar when he seems like – and is projected to be – a less exciting option?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. The one thing you don’t want to do is blow the middle round picks. Lester is consistent enough for you to not worry about him.

9:23	Comment From Dayton Moore Talking Head Who closes for the Royals if Holland goes down?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Lester is from Boston – more glamour. All the pitchers listed could be interchanged.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Hochevar. Some talk of trying Hoch at starting again, so it may also be Herrera.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Long term, Yentura

9:24	Comment From Guest is braun still keep-worthy?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Absolutely. Still one of the 10 best players in baseball.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:25	Comment From Justin Verlander Any chance I win a Cy Young again in 2014?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Sure. You’re in the conversation.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, you are Mr. Verlander.

9:26	Comment From bdhudson I have four picks left and no catcher. I could probably have Yan Gomes or TDA. Gomes, right?

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: yes.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I might roll the dice on d’Arnaud, since he’s probably going to get more PT.

9:27	Comment From Visit Tucson Playing in H2H league for the first time after many years in regular roto points leagues. What are the biggest changes in draft strategy?

9:28	Paul Swydan: The only tweak I would make is don’t draft a lot of players on the same team. If that team has an extra off-day or a rainout then you might lose your week unnecessarily. And that would be a shame.

9:28	Paul Swydan: PS – I hate head-to-head leagues.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: You can punt stats and keep a ton of SP on your bench to maximize stats. Your league may allow you to cheat with SP with RP qualifications.

9:29	Comment From Edge O Tony Clark of the MLBPA has voiced some concern about the QO system. Could the problem be that the current system overvalues marginal type FAs? Maybe standards should be raised so that fewer players would qualify for the $14.1MM.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: The problem is players don’t take the offer. If a couple of marginal players would take the offer, teams may not give as many out.

9:31	Paul Swydan: No matter what standard you set, some marginally good player is going to sneak through and be punished by the system. Just get rid of it altogether.

9:31	Comment From Nick Franklin Reports surfacing today that I might wind up with the Rays. Do you see that happening? What would my value become as the starting 2B in Tampa?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Pretty good. I like this plan. Though I’m not sure why everyone thinks the Rays have starting pitch depth to burn. Unless I missed the memo where they signed David Price to a giant extension?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I would have to look in detail, but it would go up, but you may end up in a platoon role.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Definitely some sort of platoon, what with Zobrist and Forsythe and S-Rod in the mix – but you might not play at all in Seattle, so that’s still better.

9:33	Comment From Jussi Buxton or Bogaerts?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Both

9:33	Paul Swydan: Well, obviously I prefer Bogaerts. Tie goes to the shortstop.

9:34	Comment From Northsider What happens first NBA added a 4-pt line or MLB allows draft pick trading? http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10517078/nba-weighing-expanded-court-4-point-shot

9:34	Paul Swydan: I love that that story quotes Antoine Walker.

9:35	Comment From Jake I don’t want my team (NYY) to trade for Samardzija, but it’s not because he’s overrated, because they don’t particularly need a 3-win starter as much as other teams, or as much as they need a 3-win position player

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I would love to see pick trading. I think it would help trades overall. If two teams are close, they could just throw in another pick.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Tonight, in arrogant Yankees fan theater…

9:35	Comment From SuprMan $10 RA Dickey or $13 Jose Abreu?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Abreu

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Abreu also

9:35	Comment From SouthSideBobby I really appreciate all the chats that you guys do here, but I wonder does it slow it down with 2 guys doing a chat?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’m moving slow tonight in general, but we also try to make sure each person answers the question before moving on to the next. Sorry if it takes us a little extra time per question.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably. Paul is usually faster because he picks the questions and he has more time to think up an answer.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that too.

9:37	Comment From Brett Lawrie Please tell me I’m more valuable than Mike Moustakas right now.

9:37	Paul Swydan: You are, but not by much.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but did find a nice tidbit on Moose. He destroys RH sickerballers. Nice daily play if a roster allows it.

9:38	Comment From Pork Sale Is Profar starting to feel like a bust, or am I just instant gratification douche master?

9:39	Paul Swydan: More the latter than the former, but I think given the Rangers shaky managerial situation, it’s OK to be concerned.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: It is getting that way. I would like to see him make one positive step forward. Just one.

9:39	Paul Swydan: And they just extended him too. He must be a heckuva motivator.

9:39	Comment From Boringdan I need help with a keeper decision in H2H. First keeper is trout, second keeper is one of Cargo, Votto or Kipnis. How highly should I value Votto’s consistency versus Cargo’s upside but inevitable missed time? Or is Kipnis’ positional scarcity enough to justify keeping him?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Votto.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Cargo better.

9:40	Comment From GK Would you be so kind as to rank Bourn, Crisp, Fowler, Eaton and Aoki for dynasty purposes? Cheers.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Fowler, Eaton, Crisp/Bourn

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Eaton, Fowler, Crisp, Aoki, Bourn.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Oh sorry, I forgot Aoki. Put him just above Bourn but below Crisp.

9:42	Comment From SuprMan $10 Dickey + $3 Kuroda or $13 Jose Abreu?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Ehhhhhhhhhhhhh….still don’t like $10 Dickey. Not a lot of value there. I still like Abreu. $13 could be a huge value for him, if he’s as good as the Steamer guys think he will be.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Abreu. You may be able to get the pitchers at that price in the auction.

9:44	Comment From brian Better next 3 season from a fantasy standpoint? Homer Bailey or Oscar Taveras? This is the decision I need to make. I am already keeping two SP..and 2 OF. Thanks man.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Taveras.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Take Taveras.

9:44	Comment From Schmegs Are we going to get a Tony Blengino chat sometime? I like his material and it sounds like it would be fun to get his perspective.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Putting it here in case Cameron or Appelman read this. I have no idea, but if I had to guess, I’d say it’s not likely.

9:45	Paul Swydan: But yes, Tony has been doing some great stuff for us.

9:45	Comment From sgtjunior $6 Quintana and $1 Odorizzi for $12 Nathan in AL keeper, which side and is it fair?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’d rather have the two SPs.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul

9:45	Comment From EL ASH paul, what can you tell me about the closer situations in Baltimore and Chicago? How solid are Hunter, Nate Jones, and Veras?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Hey, Jeff is here too you know.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I like Hunter as a sleeper. I like Nate Jones too. Not too high on Veras.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Veras may get traded again mid-season when the Cubs are out of it.

9:47	Comment From Jaack For future use

9:47	Paul Swydan: Thanks!

9:47	Comment From Guest Any chance a salary cap is discussed in 2016 when the CBA is up? All this qualifying offer, compensation, contract babble is becoming a drag.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m sure it’ll be discussed. I wouldn’t bet on it being implemented.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: There will be no salary cap.

9:48	Comment From Guest More likely: Pedro Alvarez hits 40HRs or has an OBP above 300?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I will take the 40 HRs

9:49	Paul Swydan: Well he’s had >.300 OBPs before, so I”ll go with that.

9:50	Comment From Human Your favorite ballpark?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Fenway and Coors Field

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Kauffman, but I love any small park.

9:51

Comment From Vladimir
So everyone keeps saying pitching is soooo deep this year. But what if you’re in a somewhat deep league with very few free agent adds during the season. Do you still wait forever and grab hitters early? Can you really count on success when you run AJ Griffin and Cory Kluber and guys like that out there as your #4 and #5?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Well, I never follow that rule. I always just go with where I think the best value is.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: kind of, there are some tiers out there. I want 2-3 of the top guys and then bottom feed off the rest.

9:53	Comment From bdhudson oswaldo arcia as a fourth of – potential stud if he matures even a little bit as a hitter?

9:53	Paul Swydan: That’s where I have him pegged.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds right.

9:54	Comment From Hanky Did you sign the petition to make Opening Day a national holiday?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I didn’t, because I don’t sign any of those petitions, but I certainly hope that all of you sign it!

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I hadn’t seen it, I have too much to do right now.

9:55	Comment From Mark Which Ohio pitcher has a higher WAR: Salazar or Bailey?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Salazar.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Salazar, I am worried a bit on his innings.

9:56	Comment From david Best opening day game? Braves/Nats?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: All of them

9:57	Paul Swydan: Oh, did we mean tomorrow opening day? Shrug.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Royals/Tigers on actual Opening Day, Cards/Reds and Indians/A’s look great.

9:58	Comment From Guest dan haren as a sleeper??? thoughts???

9:59	Paul Swydan: I don’t like him as one, but at least he’s in a better situation this year than he was last year.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Not really a sleeper, not sure there is much upside.

9:59	Comment From Jaack Rockies/Marlins opening day 2014.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Meh.

9:59	Comment From Where Oswaldo? Hey Jeff. This question’s for you. Keepers: I am about to trade Heyward, Reyes, Granderson, Buchholz, 6th rounder for Braun, Desmond, Anibal, Bourn, 11th rounder. Who gets the better package, and are there any concerns?