FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/1/16

by Paul Swydan

March 1, 2016

9:03	Paul Swydan: Whoops, lost track of time. OK, let’s start.

9:03	Trainman: Chapman suspension: fair or foul? Do you see him being the closer if Miller or Betances dominate out the gate?

9:05

Paul Swydan: So, on the one hand, I didn’t like the idea of giving him a suspension long enough to give the Yankees an extra year of his services. But I also think these domestic abuse offenders should be treated more harshly than PED offenders. And I think that there is, since no charges were filed in this case, and the woman was apparently *physically* unharmed, it leaves the door open for stiffer punishments when those things are in play. But we’ll have to see.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Fair, wasn’t guilty in court. Miller will be closer

9:06	Ruby: Hypothetical: The best player on every team tears an Achilles on April 1. What happens to playoff odds?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Probably not a ton, because every team is losing that one player. Maybe the Angels and Nationals and Dodgers are affected a little more than most.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: The Angels lost all of their hopes.

9:07	Ruby: One team is made of 25 ML pitchers who must also play the field and bat. Another team is made of 25 ML batters/fielders who must also pitch. Who wins this matchup? What if Bumgarner, Greinke, Zambrano and Arroyo are on the pitching team?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say the pitchers team, just because both of those things are in their normal routines.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Kind of agree. I think the hitters will either be horrible pitchers or the ones that can pitch will probably be bad hitters.

9:09

jpg: If there was ever a team to copy the Royals blueprint, it’s the Rockies, no? It sounds counterintuitive but here’s the plan: Build a contact heavy lineup that rarely strikes out to take advantage of the huge outfield gaps. Focus on fast, aggressive base runners. The home runs will still come. As for run prevention, we have two decades of evidence that Colorado can’t A) develop a front line starter or B) sign one in free agency (sans Mike Hampton). So they should focus on pairing decent starters with elite glove men in the outfield to cover the aforementioned huge gaps and a lights out bullpen because relievers have succeeded there. What do you guys think?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think they’ve tried the elite glove man angle before, but I like the pitching plan. And I think they’re trying that now, in their own special way.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: The good bullpen is where I would start and then bring back a sluggers lineup

9:10	Norton: Thoughts on Cesperado’s ride today? Does he have a post-MLB career as a cowboy?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Johnny Cueto and him can hang out

9:11	Paul Swydan: My main thought is that I couldn’t possibly care less, and wish the media had better things to do with their time. I guess that makes me a bit of a kill joy, but I don’t need any more evidence of rich people showing off their toys.

9:11	Zorak: keeper deadline at midnight! Who do I lock in to the last slot ($300 keep 6 h2h points). Currently keeping $54 Kershaw, $5 Stroman, $5 Sano, $5 Lindor, $12 Brantley. Do I keep $30 Lester, $44 Bautista, or $14 Kipnis? Agonizing decision, appreciate any and all input!

9:12	Paul Swydan: First off, thank you for giving your league context. Keep doing this, people!

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Bautista or Kipnis

9:13	Paul Swydan: If you’re going for it, I lean Bautista, but if not, Kipnis. I worry about your middle infield being on the same team.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I may go with Kipnis on age because it is keeper.

9:14	Dude99: Eno told me that a 40 man roster of 0.0 WAR players is worth 47 wins. So a team would need 43 WAR from it’s players to reach 90 wins? Is that more or less the context for WAR?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I’m deferring to Jeff on this one.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but the actual wins will likely be +/- 8 because of clutch performances (good or bad record in close games)

9:15	Trystan: If Desmond was available for 8 why did the Nats not take a punt? They ‘lose’ the supp pick not an earlier one and still can trade before deadline for middling prospect and promote Turner.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Because they already cast their lot with Stephen Drew for some reason.

9:16	Paul Swydan: And, also, it takes two to tango, and I doubt that Desmond would have looked on such an offer kindly.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, I think the two teams were done.

9:16	Murdoc: Which is sillier, thinking that comparing a spring training facility to a country club is an insult or having to defend your spring training facility for being too nice?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Probably the latter.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, both. How about some baseball talk. Hell, Stroman threw today

9:18

Vic: Completely agree that deGrom is a better, safer fantasy bet over Buxton for this year and likely 2017…..but over the next 4 years, considering pitcher injuries are longer and more severe than hitter injuries, is it reasonable to think Buxton might provide more value? Asking, because I can have one or the other for the next 4 years….must throw back the other.

9:18	Paul Swydan: It’s reasonable to take Buxton, but given his bust potential I’d be riding with deGrom there.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: If only 4 years, take deGrom, you know his upside. Buxton hasn’t really ever shown anything

9:19	Phony McRingring: Giles and Gregerson- is this an actual closer battle or just Gregerson publicly beating his chest?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Gregerson is being an ass. Giles is the better pitcher and will close

9:20	Paul Swydan: First off – great name. Second off, Gregerson is just beating his chest. They’re not all Mensa candidates.

9:20	Jon: Would tanking actually benefit any teams in the majors right now? Seems like literally every team could be a couple of smart offseason moves away from contention in any given year

9:20	Paul Swydan: It could benefit one team per year. Generally there is a big drop off between the value of the #1 and #2 pick. After that, I don’t see the benefit.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: The one area I don’t see a ton of discussion is the protected top 10 pick. I could see teams try to get one and then load up on cheap QO free agents and lose their 2nd to 5th round picks.

9:22

Bad Hermit: According to the FG playoff odds: The Cubs chances of winning the World Series are 18.5% right now. The Cubs chances of winning the World Series were 12.5% the day after beating the Pirates in the Wild Card game last year (not every team happened to be 1/8, BTW). My puny mind wants to take the latter every time. I understand that the 2016 projection has them as a virtual lock for making the NLDS as is. But, still, a 6% better chance? Thoughts?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think this sounds about right, actually.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree it is high and I could see them disappoint this season.

9:23	Con: Do you see any break out potential from Schoop? What do you project for the upcoming season?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I do think Schoop has some breakout potential, but I wouldn’t project it. I think something between the depth charts projection and the FANS projection.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Had to check his page, his plate discipline will keep his value depressed.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: He could have a crazy BABIP season, but don’t count on it.

9:25

Casey: I’m in the 2nd year of my first ever dynasty league and I’m struggling to determine where I am in regards to win vs rebuild, I came in 2nd last year but I think it was fairly fluky. Are guys like Gordon or Lawrie worth holding onto in dynasty when the likes of JP Crawford or AJ Reed are available?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I would jump on Crawford and Reed, personally. I don’t think Gordon and Lawrie move the needle.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, those two could be game changers.

9:26	George is Curious: Top five guys you would pay for an AL-only league auction right now?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Trout, Machado, Correa, Sale, Donaldson/Mookie/Kluber/Carrasco

9:27	Paul Swydan: Maybe throw Price into that group for the fifth pick.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Sorry, tough to narrow down to just five.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Altuve, Betts, Kluber, Dyson, Trumbo: All be good values for the price you will pay

9:28	Paul Swydan: Hmmm, I guess we read this question differently.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Oh well.

9:28

BC Manatee Country: I was looking at Alex Cobb in the 2016 BP Handbook. His comps were Erik Bedard, Dustin McGowan, and Brandon McCarthy. Interestingly, Chris Archer, Taylor Guerrieri, Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi, AND Erasmo Ramirez all have Alex Cobb in their comps!! Is this chance, or does the Rays scouting department look for a particular type of pitcher?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Well, I can’t break down for you how BP runs their comps, but I think there’s a good chance that the Rays are targeting very specific pitcher types, yes.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: They may have figured out the high GB% or FB% pitchers out perform their peripherals. My next THT is on this topic.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Foreshadowing!

9:30	Daniel: I am fairly young, so forgive me – Has the game ever been in a better “state” player-wise? So much young talent. So much personality amongst that young talent. Archer, Stroman, etc. Am I perhaps forgetting a time when this cycle has happened before?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I think it is true that there is more young talent in the game these days. As for the personality amongst them, I doubt it. That is simply a product of there being more avenues to interact with the players, ie social media.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the young SS years of Arod, Nomar and Jeter, but PEDs took over. Nope 2015 was the best with the World Champs being the Royals

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I would have loved to see Pedro on Twitter when he was pitching.

9:32

nosoupforyou: Would jose abreu for a.j reed, tony kemp, and a lottery ticket pitcher make sense for both clubs, white sox extend their window with kemp starting at second next year, sign pedro alvarez to dh one year, and reed at first after super 2 cut off. Astros get a sure thing bat for their correa window at below market rate.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Wow, no, sorry. That’s not even close to enough for Jose Abreu.

9:33	Paul Swydan: You said it yourself in the question – that’s a below market rate.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: No for the White Sox right now, but I think Reed will be better than Abreu. And cheaper

9:34	Larry Eagle: Do you do any “slow drafts”. I do one that typically takes 10-14 days and I love it. You avoid knee jerk mistakes, and can really do research as your pick approaches.

9:35	Paul Swydan: I have done them, and loved them, but it cuts both ways. When your free time is at a premium, your pick or the draft can sneak up on you and then you feel really dumb for flubbing it. In a related story, I don’t do slow drafts any more.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Two of them, I am doing the industry one now and it is a deep league with David Freese the best player on waivers. It is nice to do some research on the all the scrubs. Another is slow, but it is auction and each owner can start an auction at anytime. Time need there also.

9:36	Jimmy: Minor note, but your voting poll didn’t have an option for voted early. What do I answer?!?!?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Just vote yes. Nobody thinks you’re special for voting early. 😛

9:37	Fish: In a keep forever league, would you rather have Trevor Bauer or Daniel Norris?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Probably Norris. I’m not a big Trevor Bauer fan. Jack Bauer on the other hand…ROWR!

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Neither

9:38	Paul Swydan: Jeff chooses not to answer!

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, you can follow the deep industry keeper league on twitter at #tdgx

9:38	Stuafoo: What pitch would you say causes the least stress on a pitcher’s arm? Knuckleball/change?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure it’s the knuckleball.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Knuckleball

9:39	Ian: I want to take a pitcher in the second round of my fantasy draft. Is it crazy to take Sale over Scherzer?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I think so, just because of the league disparity, and the division disparity. Max Scherzer gets a whole lot of games against the Phillies and Braves.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, IMO. And the Marlins

9:40

Trainman: Thanks guys for answering question, two weeks ago I had an AL only keeper question, and you guys told me to keep darvish at $7 as one of 5 guys (Correa and Cain at $10, sale at $35 and kluber at $15) which I agree with. With chapman suspension, is it still darvish or a $1 Andrew Miller? I still think darvish but millers price tag is intriguing.

9:40	Paul Swydan: I could see keeping both Darvish and Miller and dropping Cain. I get that outfielders are scarce in AL only, but I can’t see Cain going for too much more than $10.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I would still take Darvish. I don’t usually keep closers.

9:41	Ceej : $200 cap 5×5 OBP QS. Last year of Sale at $13. With our inflation, he won’t be worth resigning. What would you offer in addition to Sale for Pollock at only $2 and reasonably kept for years.

9:42	Paul Swydan: An outfielder of a lower grade, though I would still be tempted to just try and get Pollock for Sale straight up.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Not enough context, but $15 in surplus value, maybe more

9:42	Ben: is Detroit the team with the widest range of outcomes this year… I feel like they could win the division and be a 90+ win team.. But a few key injuries or regression from an aging core and this could be a team worse then last year…

9:43	Paul Swydan: I don’t really get how they’ll be a 90-win team. I still think the Red Sox have the widest range of outcomes.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, all “old” have a wide variance

9:44	Ed in Iowa: Hello fellas! I’m still stinging from not getting my super awesome Addison Russell question answered last week, so I’m just gonna sit over here in the corner and listen politely.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Sorry, Ed. This time of year we get wayyyyyyy more questions than we can answer. You know we still love you.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: “super awesome”?

9:45	Ryan: Suppose you’re the GM of a mid-market team without much payroll flexibility. What’s the number one thing you want to see in the next CBA?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Some change with QO in order to keep your picks and get some of the cheaper FA.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Probably the removal of the draft pick compensation, or at least the removal of it for one-year players, so that you can take a chance on guys that slip through the cracks like Fowler and Desmond without jeopardizing your future.

9:46	Evan: I noticed Stephen Vogt is ranked above Todd Frazier, albeit by one spot, in MLB’s top 100 right now. Am I crazy or is that crazy?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: A little crazy depending on how people value catchers.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Do yourself a favor and don’t worry too much about the rankings of current players like that. Any one ranking can look silly. They’re not perfect.

9:47	Norrin Radd: What’s your opinion on the fence raising at Coors?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Useless, home runs are the issue at Coors right now. It is the huge field the outfielders need to cover.

9:49

Paul Swydan: I think it’s an easy fix because there’s no seats there – they won’t change the LF one because they’d lose a lot of revenue – and it’s good from a PR perspective, especially since they’re publicly claiming to use a lot of data. But ultimately I don’t think it’ll make much of a difference.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Jeff is right.

9:50	Big Boy: Good evening gents, was offered T walker for my Shwarbz in a league slanted to pitching (top 8 players last year were SP). Am I getting enough value?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Assuming you mean Kyle Schwarber…still probably not. But you’re right to be shopping him.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so without knowing the exact scoring.

9:51	campy: Will the Dodgers fix Alex Wood?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Wood is beyond help IMO.

9:52	Paul Swydan: He’s been worth exactly 2.6 WAR each of the past two seasons, so I guess I’m not sure what it is they need to fix. But I guess we’ll see.

9:53	Nevada Kedavra: Did the Desmond signing kill Gallo’s chances at having any AL-only value this year? I have him at only $4 but considering dropping him

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think that is the biggest question – what this signing does to Gallo, Mazara, Brinson and Profar. Probably too early to tell.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I may drop him, but he may be worth it in ’17 with Desmond gone. The Texas depth chart is tough to figure out. I do think someone gets moved for some good pitching.

9:55	Daniel: On the “25 ML Pitchers” as a team team… Which pitcher is catching?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Bartolo Colon?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Colon

9:55	Paul Swydan: hahaha, agreements!

9:55	Ben: $260 AL only 12 keeper league, was offered $3 Carlos Carrasco for Sonny Gray at $12 and $2 Cody Allen, do you do it?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Hell yeah. Get Carrasco, worry about the closer later.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: You have to ask yourself if you can get a closer equal to Allen for $11. Might be tough. I may keep the pair.

9:57	Daren: What if the folks at Coors just Green Monstered the entire field? Is that legal?

9:57	Paul Swydan: It is, but they’d have to reconfigure nearly the entire ballpark, and it wouldn’t be worth doing that.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Legal, probably yes, but no home run baseball would be unwatchable.

9:58	Paul Swydan: They might be able to get away with doing it from center field to right field a little more cheaply. But I wouldn’t recommend it.

9:58	Mat: $260 NL 6×6 (holds as category). Keeping a $33 McCutchen, $2 Kang, $1 Santana, $1 Familia and $7 Smith. Choose 3 from $22 Cespedes, $20 Puig, $13 Piscotty, $23 Strasburg, $11 Montero, $4 Strop.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Piscotty, Strasburg, Montero, but I’m not in love with this.