FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/21/17

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Jeff Zimmerman: Hey

Matt M: this WBC has been great

Paul Swydan: It has, Matt M. I agree.

Matt M: what is the difference between these chats and the ones at MLBTR?

Jeff Zimmerman: Different people?

Paul Swydan: I can’t really answer that, unfortunately. Different people? There’s 2 of us? I’m not super familiar with MLBTR chats, sorry.

Legs Larry Smith: A batter leading off the inning hits a pop foul that the first baseman drops for an error. On the next pitch, the batter hits a home run. Is the run earned or unearned?

Paul Swydan: I want to say earned, but I’m not 100% sure. Good question.

Jeff Zimmerman: earned

Heathcliff Slocumb: With the UCL sprain Desclafani is dealing with, I ended up keeping Robbie Ray for $3 ($300 budget). I took over a team in a 12 teamer so my roster was pretty barren. I actually feel good about this decision but Ray had such an atrocious year in 2016. He’s currently going off the board in the 45-60 range but I view him as a guy who could sneak into the top 30, maybe even top 25 if he has some BABIP and HR/FB luck. Am I crazy?

Paul Swydan: You’re probably wrong about his top-end value, but he doesn’t need to reach that value to be worth the $3 you kept him at.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, the AZ gave historically bad BABIP. He wasn’t unlucky the year before. I think he is a great buy low.

$11 Worth of FAAB: Hanley Ramirez or Eric Hosmer?

Paul Swydan: Hanley all day every day.

Jeff Zimmerman: Nice name whoever from RoyalsReview wrote it. Hanley

Shenanigans: I recently acquired Odubel Herrera. Think he can be a top 25 OF? Top 15?

Paul Swydan: Top 15 might be pushing it, but top 25, sure. As long as SB counts.

Jeff Zimmerman: 25 maybe. Skills are there but I am not sure on the counting stats.

Tucson is pronounced “Tusken”: Star Trek is the one with the killer robot named Hank right?

Paul Swydan: Uh.

Buddy: Paul what changes does Danny Duffy need to make to help suppress the hard contact % (36.6%) and low IFFB %? I feel like those are the only things keeping him back from being elite when healthy

Paul Swydan: This one is addressed to me, but it’s really a Jeff question. Jeff?

Jeff Zimmerman: Not throw left handed.

Paul Swydan: BOOM, easy.

at bsii: Other candidates for top WBC moments (not just visuals): A. Israel going 3-0 — Yeah way they did! B. Crazy japanese home crowds for dingers. C. MEX/ven/whoever tiebreaker snafu. D. MEX/CAN/KOR/AUS having to requalify for 2021. E. Bleach blonde Beltran beard! F. 7″1′ NL pitcher is a giant! H. Stupid 11th+ inning 2 runners on rules pretty much destroying the fun of watching last nights 3-3 tie between PUR and NL.

Paul Swydan: Good list. The blonde beard/hair thing has been fun to watch, I probably should have included that. It’s been a fun tournament. Hopefully we don’t have to hear any more talk about it being cancelled.

Jeff Zimmerman: Good list

Wilson Betemit: 5X5 Standard Roto: my staff: Verlander, Archer, Carlos Martinez, Nola, Pineda, Cotton, Giles, Herrera and Colome. Good enough?

Paul Swydan: Good enough. Maybe do better than Colome, but that rotation will play for sure.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I would be a little worried about some pitchers being shut down at the season’s end like Martinez, Nola, and Cotton

Paul: How important is positional need in the early rounds of a keeper draft? Do you still just go best available? I’m keeping Arenado and Lindor, but I think there’s a chance Machado falls to me. It seems to make sense to go 1B or OF, but he’d be hard to let go by.

Paul Swydan: I mean, assuming you have a UTIL position, I’d just take Machado and plug him in there.

Jeff Zimmerman: Get all three if best available. I just ran my Tout Wars values and only position scarcity is at Catcher for a 15 team league. 1B and OF way down.

CaptainPeanutbutter: it’s not a single look, but watching the people in WBC be really into it has been great for me.

Paul Swydan: True. Also, great name. Now I’m hungry. Just kidding, I’m always hungry.

Jeff Zimmerman: People watch is my wife’s favorite hobby.

Paul Swydan: Mine too!

CamdenWarehouse: How many games of Mark Trumbo in the outfield does it take to reach the Sarah McLachlan SPCA psa level of sadness?

Paul Swydan: Wow, this is a great measuring stick for sadness. I’ll say 20 games.

Jeff Zimmerman: Not too many depending on the park. He doesn’t need any special talent to watch home runs leave Camden Yards

Paul Swydan: Touche.

Mr. Nor’easter: Molina picking Profar off first as he celebrated his single … too funny!@

Paul Swydan: Yeah that was a good one. Oh Jurickson!

Jeff Zimmerman: Little help, who was the OF who showed off his 20 Arm vs Japan? I think he was on the Dutch team

Jeff Zimmerman: I spent a bit looking for a .gif of the play today

Jeremy: I was planning to keep “Rockies Closer Adam Ottavino” but now that the beat reporters seem unanimous in Holland being the guy, is he now a cut for me? 14 team, 3 reliever league, 340 points. He’s only 4 points for me but there’s an opportunity cost of not being able to get a more sure-fire closer in the auction in lieu of him.

Paul Swydan: I guess it comes down to whether you can get a better one or not. I would think he’ll still get save opps this season. I doubt they’ll want to use Holland in too many back-to-backs at the start of the season.

Jeff Zimmerman: This is your call. I am not sure Holland will be his old self since he is down at least 2 mph from his prime seasons.

Trevor: Hey Paul! Just a quick keeper question. In a 10 team standard 5X5 keeper league with 6 keepers. 100% keeping Goldschmidt, Machado, and Harper. Also, pretty sure I’ll keep Yelich. Pick two from Salazar, K. Seager, Posey, Teheran, or Jansen. Leaning towards Jansen and maybe Salazar for the upside, or K. Seager. Thoughts?

Paul Swydan: Wait what am I missing here? Why wouldn’t you keep Posey? He seems like an obvious choice. Choice between Seager and Jansen for the other, depending on where you can play Machado. If you can play Machado at SS, might just keep Seager.

Jeff Zimmerman: Posey for sure and…… Seager. 10-team means closers available.

Paul Swydan: Goof point.

Paul Swydan: Good

Alex: Taijuan Walker is having a great spring — 25K in 17iinn. Have read it’s because slider is finally a quality breaking pitch. think this is the year he finally breaks out? Or just more up-and-down performances?

Paul Swydan: Don’t read anything into his spring Ks when so many good players are away at the WBC.

Paul Swydan: I mean, don’t read anything into it in general, but especially not this year.

Jeff Zimmerman: I will take a look at his slider. He has been in front of the pitch tracking cameras a few times.

Paul Swydan: Also, keep in mind that he’s on a new team, and there’s a natural tendency to try to talk up the new guy. I’ll believe it when I see it.

snid: Why wouldn’t Dumbrowski nitch the Pomeranz/Espinoza trade since MLB would have allowed it?

Jeff Zimmerman: He hates prospects. Hates them.

Paul Swydan: It’s a fantastic question. I don’t think we’d be having this conversation if the Red Sox had reached the World Series, but they didn’t, and if Pomeranz misses the entire season, this trade is not going to be remembered fondly.

Bill: 5×5 roto with OBP replacing BA, and $500 cap. Five keepers, can keep a player up to 3 years, but keeper cost escalates $10/year. Do I trade Odor $26 (last year as a keeper), Sano $21(2nd year as keeper), Urias $20 (can keep 3 years), one of my 5 keeper slots (they can be traded and have been going for about $10), and $10 in cash for Betts $31 (last year as keeper); Familia $21 (last year as keeper). My Keepers would then be $31 Betts, $21 Familia, and $11 Moncada (1st year of 3 year keeper eligibility), plus one of C Carter $22/Kepler $11, Rodon $17, Bundy at $11, or sell the last keeper slot for $8-12.

Paul Swydan: Man your league has weird rules.

Jeff Zimmerman: Lot’s of moving parts, but I wouldn’t do it. The $500 cap is messing with me a bit, but it should mean players are twice the amount I am used to seeing.

Paul Swydan: I am holding off too. As much as I love Mookie, I don’t think that is great value for 3 years of Urias.

Jeff Zimmerman: And it is simpler that Scoresheet

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Star Trek is awful. Jar Jar Binks was the worst. (I kid, I kid)

Paul Swydan: Why I outta…

Anon: I was watching game 7 recently and a couple of questions came up… How come Chapman giving up runs was a big story but Miller and kluber giving up runs wasn’t, also Ross errors in catching Lester and Chapman weren’t made as big a deal either.

Paul Swydan: All good questions. I haven’t rewatched it. I envy the amount of free time you have.

Jeff Zimmerman: Narrative and Chapman was gassed after needlessly throwing the night before.

Paul Swydan: Also Miller threw earlier in the game.

Paul Swydan: Also Chapman got took by Rajai Davis. I mean, I love Rajai Davis more than most, but still.

12 to 6: With players being more amped up for WBC games can it carry over into MLB regular season games? The passion is great

Paul Swydan: I doubt it. You’ll probably read a whole bunch of “back to business” stories when the season ends and all the uptight idiots that proliferate MLB clubhouses put an end to the fun.

Paul Swydan: when the WBC ends

Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, the true veterans will crush this excitement. Grit will prevail.

Anon: Star trek question needs another option: haven’t seen enough across the categories to make a decision.

Paul Swydan: Go watch them and then report back next week!

Jeff Zimmerman: And you thought someone had too much time to rewatch game seven?

Paul Swydan: Touche.

Pikup Androppov: Who would win an arm wrestling match between you guys?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think it would be pretty close

Paul Swydan: While Jeff was busy protecting our country in the Navy, I was busy winning games of Madden 98 on Playstation so that I didn’t have to leave the dorm for the late night Burger King run. You figure it out.

CaptainPeanutbutter: In what univese was the kluber/mille thing not a big deal? It was the whole did you pitch miller too much/pull kluber early thing

Paul Swydan: My memory at the time was that Miller finally got got, but given how right Francona had been in his usage of Miller all postseason it was hard to fault him for what he did in Game 7.

Stevil: The Dodgers are stuck with Adrian Gonzalez for a few more years. Are they better off sticking with him, or moving him to open up a spot for Bellinger, deadline being the end of the 2017 season?

Paul Swydan: Just this year and next year. Bellinger’s play will dictate how soon they move on from Gonzalez, if they move on from him at all. If any team can float a $20 million bench player, it’s the Dodgers.

Paul Swydan: Jeff’s computer froze.

At bsii: How much would it suck if tonight’s WBC game ends early because of rain after last nights game ended early because of stupid rules?

Paul Swydan: Very much so? Is it really going to rain in LA tonight? Say it ain’t so!

Kong: “Wrath of Khan” all day long.

Paul Swydan: This is an unpopular opinion with people older than me, but Star Trek I-III is borderline unwatchable for me. The movies move incredibly slowly. They didn’t hold up well in that sense at all.

Rated Rookie: Can I count on Joe Maddon being cute enough with his roster that Kris Bryant makes at least 5 appearances at first base?

Paul Swydan: I’m going to say no.

Paul Swydan: They’d have to be DHing Rizzo for that, and I expect Schwarber to be the DH whenever they’re in an AL park.

Paul Swydan: I mean, I suppose if Rizzo got hurt…but even then, I’m not so sure. Bryant is fine at third.

Trent: Spring stats aren’t predictive, but is Harper’s spring at least a good indication that he’s healthy?

Paul Swydan: Well, nothing wrong with using the spring to see if guys are healthy. I haven’t paid much attention to spring training, but if Harper looks healthy then he looks healthy.

CaptainPeanutbutter: They are playing in LA and it is raining. Am confused.

Paul Swydan: Yikes.

Paul Swydan: That’s right, the game already started. Oof.

Paul Swydan: This is why they should play it in July. 🙂

That Guy: Wiki says the home run after an error is unearned.

Paul Swydan: Well OK.

Paul Swydan: Is Jim Kaat really the color guy for this game? Ok….

At bsii: This is a live chat for tonight’s entire game right? NO PRESSURE SOME PRESSURE.

Paul Swydan: No chance. I have to finish my PPR.

KBrox: 5×5 keeper with OBP and TB instead of AVG and HR. $285 cap. Deciding between Miguel Cabrera @$45 and Greg Bird @$5 for last spot. I can probably get Cabrera back in the draft for $40-45. Keep Bird? Leaning that way after he’s looking healthy. I’ve got tons of other good keepers like Trea, Story, Harper, Betts, J. Turner, Rendon, Duffy…

Paul Swydan: Wow they just played a few seconds of Dead Prez’s “Hip Hop.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard that at a ballpark before.

Paul Swydan: Also, KBRox, I probably hang on to Miggy. Saving the $40 would be nice, but so would be having one of the best hitters in the game.

Fort Knox: Where do you stand an Berrios? Top end pitcher or top end pitch tipper?

Jeff Zimmerman: Back, computer froze

Paul Swydan: I don’t really stand in either place. I think he has a chance to be a good pitcher, but he’s got some work to do.

Jeff Zimmerman: I lean top end

Jeff Zimmerman: If given the choice

Zorn: How confident are you in Davis lasting the year as Cubs closer? You like Carl Edwards?

Paul Swydan: Not super confident. But I do like Edwards, yes. Not sure if he’s definitely the 2nd choice though.

Jeff Zimmerman: 58%: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-teams-initial-closers-performed/

Jeff Zimmerman: or 55%

Matt Malkus: Watching Balentien tear up the WBC and seeing guys like Thames and Casey McGehee come back from overseas and land modest contracts, do you think the quality of hitting in the NPB/KBO has improved in recent years? Or is this just a result of more time/money/effort spent scouting over there / some other external force?

Paul Swydan: Well, as Sung-min Kim detailed yesterday at THT, one thing is that before 2014, KBO teams didn’t really use American hitters. So giving more of those guys an opportunity to hit over there probably helped.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think teams are more willing to take a chance on players after a few have been successful.

Rated Rookie: 11-team league where up to 16 keepers slot in as first 16 draft picks, would you keep or cut: M. Fulmer, Stroman, Rodon, McCullers, Taillion?

Paul Swydan: All of those guys are probably first 16 round pick worthy. Not sure you need all of them though.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’d keep them all for now.

Dago: Better odds for 2017: Stanton healthy ALL year OR Rich Hill eclipsing 120 IP?

Paul Swydan: I’ll say Hill.

Paul Swydan: But neither is super likely.

Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton easily, probably 3 times more likely knowing historical injury data.

Petey Pablo: Can Trevor Story hit 40 bombs this season?

Paul Swydan: He certainly could, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would take the under.

Friend: AL only keeper $260: Pick one side Andrew Miller $6, happ $3 & Trumbo $18 or Jose Ramirez $6, j dyson $15 & Trevor baur $4?

Paul Swydan: The Miller/Happ/Trumbo side, and I say that as someone who loves Dyson.

Jeff Zimmerman: Seems fine either way. Seems like a trade just to trade

mark: Is Cody Bellinger’s spring making you question his ability to hit major league pitching?

Paul Swydan: No spring training would ever make me do that.

Paul Swydan: Keith Foulke had like an 81 ERA in 2004.

Paul Swydan: 2004 spring training i mean

Jeff Zimmerman: Nope and he will have some swing and miss months in his future. Just ride him out for a full good season (if called up)

Bucco: How close is Tony Watson to losing the closer job before opening day? If so, while Rivero is filthy – is highly likely to go to Hudson? Thinking yes based on trend to try and hold down arb numbers for guys like Rivero if possible.

Paul Swydan: Honestly guys, it’s too early for the closer questions. Next week, next week.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will need three guys. No Pirates starter is going 8 every time out.

Trey: Should the Orioles blow it up after this year or make one more run at competing in 2018 (after which they lose Machado, Britton, Jones, and Hardy to FA)

Paul Swydan: I don’t think the O’s can blow it up as long as Machado is on the team.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they have seasons left to try.

Paul Swydan: We don’t have seasons left for this chat though. So we’re going to need to stop right here. Thanks for hanging out, as always. See you next week!

Jeff Zimmerman: Bye