FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/24/15

by Paul Swydan

March 24, 2015

6:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! 9 pm ET, with me and possibly Jeff. Get your questions in the queue now. See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: One second!

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Waiting on Paul

9:03	Paul Swydan: Sorry!

9:03	Comment From daneyko Mat Latos: Over/Under 3.30 ERA. Why?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Over, the loss of velo is troubling.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’ll say over, because I don’t believe the velo will come back.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Also, the drop in strikeouts. Which is probably related/

9:04	Comment From Southcoast Did the surgery heal Ryan Braun’s thumb ? How do you think he will perform this year. Any projection you wish to share? THanks,

9:04	Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: One sec.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.hardballtimes.co…

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Bookmark this one, has how all players will perform after certain injuries

9:06	Paul Swydan: That was a good article from Jeff.

9:06	Comment From EL ASHABAN Hey Paul, what are your thoughts on Carlos Gonzalez? Does he revert back to form this year? How well does he age? Most projections have him hit well for a long time but his injuries are concerning, no?

9:07

Paul Swydan: One for me. Symmetry. Though you probably can reference that same article.

I think CarGo’s performance basically comes down to how well he can hit. I think there is something to the notion that he didn’t rush himself back the last two years with the team in the tank, and reports on him seem good this spring, so I’m more optimistic than I have been in awhile. Still, he’s not a first five rounds guy for me at this point.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I have no faith he can convert back (though I think he will for one magical season). He is going to age horribly IMO because of the injuries.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Yeah, and being in Colorado isn’t helping him any.

9:08

Comment From dave
In an AL keeper auction i have Encarnacion at $20. (through this year only)I have some other pretty good value hitters I am keeping and debating if I try to trade him for a $10 Kluber that I could contract up to 2 more years at $5yr. All the top pitching is being kept so the best possible to draft will be iwakuma, samardzija, cobb types but there will be some power available. Do the trade or stand pat? I have mchugh, salazar, porcello, pomeranz, bauer and duffy I can keep on my team already

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think you have some pretty good upside plays in your rotation already, so I wouldn’t be desperate to trade Encarnacion, unless you’re not going for it this year. If you’re punting this season, then I’d do the deal.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I may do it, that staff is not going to cut it, but a team w/o E5 may not hit enough

9:10

Comment From Hero
Have a question about position eligibility for next year, coupled by a trade question. A) I have mookie betts – how many starts does he get this year at 2nd? This is important to the next question. B) I’m in an keeper league (no cost, keep 8 players annually). I have a legit offensive powerhouse(top 2) – but my pitching is suspect(bottom 4, in a league that a couple of teams have 3 legit aces). I’ve been offered Zimmermann for Betts. I really don’t want to do it..but a rotation of Sale, A. Wood, Hughes, Bailey, Kazmir is better with Zimmermann. I have Altuve at 2nd and Choo to replace Altuve in the OF – but I’m still hestitant to do this deal. Thanks and thoughts?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Very few games at 2B IMO (5 or less). I would not make the trade.

9:13

Paul Swydan: It’s long question night, apparently.

A) Less than 10. Brock Holt will get some if Pedroia gets hurt as well.
B) I would hold off. You would have a better rotation, but I’m not sold on Choo’s comeback. Also, Mookie.

I guess ultimately it comes down to what you believe about Alex Wood. If you are content with the idea that he pitches the whole season, I definitely wouldn’t do the deal.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: It is tough to get player’s like Betts in the future

9:13	Comment From R2B2 Headed into a draft on Sat. What do you think about Trumbo/Moss as two legit. power sources?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Definitely legit power sources. That doesn’t necessarily make them great players, especially if it’s a batting average league.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I think both are way under valued.

9:14

Comment From Hack
So Steve Pearce is hitting the cover off the ball (5HR, 10RBIs, Etc) now reports having him playing a little bit of 3B to see if he can still play and back up Machado – how much does his value go up if he gets 3B eligibility(1B, OF, 3B) – 5 starts? Can you name a few players you would draft him over? thanks.

9:15

Paul Swydan: Well, going back to two questions, I would definitely take him over Choo. And I would probably take him over Trumbo as well, going back one question.

FWIW, I doubt he gains third base eligibility. I actually wouldn’t want him to even be put in that situation. He’s brittle to begin with, and we saw last year with Michael Cuddyer what happens when you put a 30-something dude back at third base for the first time in forever.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I wouldn’t count on the 3B games. Projection wise, he is a top 100 player and from what I have seen with normal drafts, 3B is not a scarce position.

9:16	Comment From Park Chan hos Beard Sad news about my boy chacin. do you think he cracks the starting rotation of another team? and where does he get this chance?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Not to start the season, no. If you can’t crack the Rockies rotation, I’m not sure how much further you have to go down from there. Bottom line is his shoulder is just not right.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, he will probably be in the minors somewhere.

9:17	Comment From Clio I really like Soler – however the owner wants Freeman. He’ll throw back a couple of draft pics (2016 9th rd/10th round)- but that is a boatload for soler…even if it is a keep 8 forever – no tax.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Uh, hang on to Freeman. That’s lunacy.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep Freeman

9:18	Comment From Casey Hey Paul, first time playing in a dynasty league. Any general tips or advice? We also have 12 bench spots, how many spots would you set for prospects?

9:19

Paul Swydan: My advice is to know which year you want to try to win a pennant in. It’s always nice to think of yourself as being able to build a dynasty that wins year after year. Realistically though, you have to take your shots when you can. Pick a year to go for it, and build for that year.

As for prospects, roughly half at all times, and more if you’re punting that particular season.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: When this season. People will way over value prospects and you can put together an old team. Then you can move to prospecting. Take the easy win.

9:21	Comment From Vision What do you foresee from Devon Travis this year?

9:21	Paul Swydan: If he plays the whole year, I expect double digits in homers and steals, and a .280ish average.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Not a whole lot, but acceptable play. Gordom Beckman-ish.

9:22	Comment From Alex Will Asdrubal Cabrera actually bat 3rd all year for the Rays? More fantasy value at middle infield: Asdrubal, Jose Ramirez, Flores, or Odor?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Hmmmm….Flores or Odor.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Odor first

9:23	Comment From Yankee Doodle Is it reasonable to count on Beltran and Teixeira hitting 20 HR this year?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:23	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think so. If they’re healthy, they should both clear that bar.

9:23	Comment From Snid Is it crazy to expect Taijuan Walker to continue this type of performance in the regular season? What do you project?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: because they would need to stay healthy.

9:23	Paul Swydan: It is absolutely crazy, yes. He has faced a ton of crappy hitters so far. I’ll be happy if he keeps his ERA under 4.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: He was pitching good at the end of last season. He is showing ace potential right now.

9:24	Comment From Anth Any thoughts on DeGrom for this upcoming season?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I’m bearish.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I am wait and see. I will be all in if he can do it again. I am not staying away, but others are higher on him.

9:25	Comment From Pork+Value What’s the deal with the fangraphs site? After like 5 seconds I get kicked to some spammy poop site. Is this just me?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Uh, I don’t know, is it? I sure as hell hope not.

9:26	Comment From Playball Is it just me or are more pitchers developing arm trouble since steroids have been abolished due to testing? If so should we bring them back?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No real increase in arm issues, just elbow issues. Since 2008, days lost to shoulder injuries have gone from 7K to 3K. Info here: http://www.hardballtimes.co… (like I said, bookmark it)

9:27	Paul Swydan: I would also add that I sincerely doubt that there are less players taking steroids. They’re simply taking different and/or better kinds that can’t be detected as easily.

9:27	Comment From Pork+Value It takes me to the App Store for sim city. Weird.

9:28	Comment From Rated Rookie Is Pork Value on an iPhone (or similar)? That problem has cropped up before.

9:28	Comment From Anon I get sent to the app store for random apps when I try to visit fangraphs from my phone, only when I’m on my phone though.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Just posting these here so that the boss sees them.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Thanks for letting us know about it.

9:28	Comment From Pork+Value It’s only from my iPhone, so I don’t know.

9:28	Comment From Pork+Value I drafted Adam Eaton as a fill in until Pence returns. Now I’m feeling like Eaton could be a solid OF4 this year. Seems like an unconventional 3 cat boss.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yeah I like Eaton. I had drafted him as a starter last year, but then he got hurt and started slow once he DID come back. I’m definitely bullish on him this year.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: He has the potential, IMO, to pull a Brantly and put it all together

9:29	Comment From Pork+Value Thanks for looking into it. You guys are great.

9:29	Comment From Jerry O/U 120 gms played for David Wright. Ryan Zimmerman seems to be going at least couple rounds later than Wright, but I see Zimmerman providing similar production with slightly less injury risk, thought?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Making sure the boss sees this one also

9:30	Paul Swydan: Hahaha. Also, that question from Jerry might be the first time I’ve ever heard someone refer to Ryan Zimmerman as being LESS of an injury risk than another player. I think it’s fine to wait the two rounds for Zimm, but I would rather have Wright, all other things being equal.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I would have them nearly the same, but don’t like either one.

9:31	Comment From TommyLasordid I hear Chacin will take a boat to Cuba, sign with the national team, defect and sign with the Dodgers for $60M.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Worked for Fredo Corleone! Oh wait, it didn’t. Hmmmm…..

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Good for him

9:32	Comment From Lenard Choose two to keep for one year: Mookie, Bryant, Yelich……Mookie obviously, and take the upside of Bryant over the relative “safety” of Yelich? Other two keepers are Stanton and Abreu.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Wow, tough one. It’s definitely a Bryant and Mookie/Yelich situation. I think the thing in Yelich’s favor is that you know he’s going to play everyday, while we only THINK Mookie is going to play every day.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is Bryant

9:33	Comment From Malady Yo, can we get Jeff Zimmerman to write a book. I’d use my local library for such a thing.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Please, I need a couple beers just to get through one of Jeff’s articles. A whole book would probably kill me. Is that what you want? If that’s what you want, then fine. Be that way.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not a chance right now. It has taken me three weeks to get Paul and article on injury rates and high velocity pitchers.

9:34	Paul Swydan: What do you mean get it, I still don’t even have it! Haha.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Pitty whoever edit my work

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Exactly

9:35	Comment From Guest Kris Bryant’s 2015 or Chris Davis’s 2009?

9:35	Paul Swydan: (Looks up Chris Davis’ 2009)

9:35	Paul Swydan: Ha. http://www.fangraphs.com/st… Let’s be optimistic and say Bryant’s 2015.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: (me too)

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: They could be the same. Call it a wash

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think people need to realize that there’s a pretty significant chance that Bryant struggles. But I think he can do better than an 80 wRC+.

9:37	Comment From LTP Thoughts on Tyler Matzek? A lot of Rockies fans, including myself, are excited about him, but we’re obviously not unbiased!

9:37	Paul Swydan: I’m encouraged by the uptick in strikeout rate as 2014 progressed. There was always a ton of talent in that left arm. Hopefully he finally tapped it.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: “Not unbiased.” I am a little skeptical on him.

9:38	Comment From Guest If you wanted to make it more interesting Bryant’s 2015 or Stanton’s 2010?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Good one. http://www.fangraphs.com/st… I’ll say Stanton.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton, but my issue will be the K’s. Can Bryant have a high enough BABIP to offset striking out 1/3 of the time.

9:40	Comment From Bleach fan 10 team mixed $260 budget keep or throw back Alex Cobb $13? Thx

9:40	Paul Swydan: I’m sure Jeff has a better sense of his injury, but I’d still hang on to him.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I would throw back, people deflate values a bunch on injuries. In a 10 team league, you could get him for $8 or less. IMO

9:41	Comment From Alex Bullish on Kang? I went all in on him in dynasty after a fangraphs article gave him a “conservative” .280, 25 HR projection, traded Rodney and Matt Olson for the draft pick which directly got him. Worried about his Spring performance and strange lineup absences though…

9:42	Paul Swydan: I am bullish, and support Dan Farnsworth’s view on him (assuming that is the article you referenced). However, I would bet on Hurdle continuing to drive you insane with his lineup choices until Kang clearly establishes himself as superior to Mercer.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Not yet, I could see him needing help with the advanced game. He could benefit from time in the cage.

9:43	Comment From joe You don’t think less guys are using steroids? Why do you think homers decreased and guys haven’t aged as well, etc?

9:44	Paul Swydan: So you’re saying steroids is the answer to all of baseball’s events in the past five-six years? That’s awwwwwfully convenient, isn’t it?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I have no idea who is or isn’t. All I know if since 2005, when steroids have been banned, the hitting peak has moved younger and younger each year.

9:45	Comment From Matt I gave into the hype and my love andn traded Cueto for Mookie Betts in my keep forever dynasty. It came down to playing Ackley and counting on Beltran vs. HopingnB. Anderson can last until Bailey or Cobb are back. Should I be happy?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I think you should!

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:46	Comment From zurzles Best SP-eligible relievers this year?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: One sec

9:47	Paul Swydan: There was an article on this at RG recently.

9:47

Jeff Zimmerman: NAME depthorder GS relief
Marco Estrada 4 18 21
Zach McAllister 5 15 7
Yusmeiro Petit 5 12 27
Brandon Maurer 2 7 31
Randall Delgado 5 4 43
Tim Stauffer 5 3 41
Juan Nicasio 5 14 19
Jenrry Mejia 1 7 56
Paul Maholm 5 8 22
Tanner Roark 4 31 0
David Hale 5 6 39
Tanner Scheppers 3 4 4
Tsuyoshi Wada 4 13 0

9:47	Paul Swydan: Someone mentioned McAllister as a possible set-up guy. I like that idea.

9:47	Comment From Gaucho How do you see 2B playing out in Atlanta?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Those are the pitchers in our depth charts

9:48	Paul Swydan: Hopefully Peraza plays well and takes over by midseason. I expect Callaspo to get plenty of run until then.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not guess what the Braves will do. Just take what would be the obvious choice and then it will probably be the exact opposite.

9:49	Comment From Michael Do you guys accept nonfantasy questions? (Will the fantasy questions fade away when real baseball begins?)

9:49	Paul Swydan: Yes and yes.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and hopefully

9:49	Paul Swydan: We serve the people, Michael. Right now, people have lots of fantasy questions. So we do our best with them.

9:49	Comment From Toby Do you see Olivera supplanting Uribe as the starting 3B by May?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Nope. Probably not before the All-Star break.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not in a month, At least 2 months

9:50	Comment From Pork+Value Any thoughts on Raisel Iglesias? I dropped Cingrani for him in a deep league. He seems like as decent a lottery ticket as any.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Great pick up. Looked decent in the AFL. Nice player to take a flier on.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah, absolutely.

9:51	Comment From Guest A very meta question: Buhow long before people realize genetic or societal advantage are greater than those granted from using PEDs? I mean I could juice out on steroids at 23, but I’d still never play professionally because the way I was born

9:52	Paul Swydan: Never? Probably never. People realizing that would invalidate everything Bud Selig told Congress, and clearly he was telling the truth because he was under oath!

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: The PEDs are only helpful for people who have the hand eye coordination to hit a 90 mph fastball

9:53	Paul Swydan: or throw one

9:53

Comment From Pork+Value
It seems Kris Bryant is universally over valued by us commoners, and panned by the experts. A quick glance at adp has him sandwiched between David Wright and Pablo Sandoval among 3rd baseman. So what’s the big deal? Isn’t that exactly the kind of risk you take in the tenth round?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yeah, it’s no big deal at all. And I’m not PANNING him, I just have my eyes open about him. But an ADP of 10th round means there’s people taking him in like the 5th and 6th, which is too early in my book.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: He is moving up recently with someone giving him 6th round value in a recent industry draft/auction.

9:55	Comment From Conor Lost Stroman to injury (like many others). Can Patrick Corbin be a replacement? Word on his return?

9:55	Comment From TommyLasordid Greatest fantasy value play of the year: Brett Anderson. Discuss amongst yourselves.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Daniel Hudson. He has already returned and is throwing in games and is getting zero respect.

9:56	Paul Swydan: A) Tommy Lasordid is a great name. B) If Anderson stays healthy, then yes. But I’m not banking on that. C) Corbin isn’t expected back until June.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Corbin as not returned and Anderson will just continue to disappoint.

9:57	Comment From Michael Greatest non-fantasy value play of the year: Jackie Bradley Jr. (i.e. someone trading for him). Discuss amongst yourselves.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, I think the Sox are hanging on to him.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it could be one of the other Sox outfielders moving on and providing value

9:59	Comment From John 13 team nl olny dynasty $270 budget, 2 catchers, 5×5. $13 m. montero keepable?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Definitely not. Just because you need two catchers doesn’t mean you should overspend for a mediocre one.