FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/31/15

by Paul Swydan

March 31, 2015

5:54

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

I haven’t talked to Jeff yet, but assuming he is in, tonight will mark the glorious return of the Menage a Chat! That’s right, Chris Cwik, newly of Yahoo! Big League Stew but always a FanGraph’er at heart, will e back in the building!

So get your questions in, and we’ll see you at 9 pm ET. And remember, this time next week there will be baseball on. As Luke Cage/Power Man would say, Sweet Christmas!!!

See you soon.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi guys! The menage a chat is back!

9:01	Chris Cwik: What’s up, nerds?

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Who let Chris in?

9:01	Comment From Dylan Oh god, not Cwik.

9:02	Comment From charles darwin micah johnson? next big 2B??? whats your take???

9:02	Paul Swydan: Let’s welcome Chris back with a White Sox question!

9:02	Chris Cwik: After seeing him this spring, I think he can be a league average hitter. That’s more than I expected coming into the season.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Kind of what and see. Everth Cabrera like

9:03	Comment From Sach Zanders Cwik: Fight me IRL.

9:03	Chris Cwik: I only accept fair fights and we know I would wipe the floor with you.

9:03	Comment From Jackie What sort of season do you expect out of Khris Davis?

9:03	Paul Swydan: That’s sort of a Chris question!

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Between ’13 and ’14.

9:04	Chris Cwik: Agree with Jeff. There’s a chance for a higher average, but he could continue to give you 20+ dongs.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I too agree. And I still love that Khris succeeded.

9:04	Comment From Bob I drafted D’Arnaud and Grandal a bit late in a 12 team points league. Can I expect one or both to be solid enough this year?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’d pick Grandal first, I like his upside more.

9:05	Chris Cwik: I like d’Arnaud as a breakout candidate. Worry a little about his health, but think he’ll be fine. Grandal is fine, but I worry about his average.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I bet one with be top 5-8, You will just need to find out which.

9:06	Comment From Guest Does Cistulli really exist?

9:06	Paul Swydan: To be determined.

9:06	Chris Cwik: Yes, and he’s wonderful.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Unfortuately yes.

9:06	Comment From Rated Rookie One way to speed up the pace of Red Sox games would be to just allow Mookie Betts to bypass the batter’s box and go straight from the dugout to first or second base.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I support this plan wholeheartedly.

9:07	Chris Cwik: The Betts hype cannot get any higher!

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Or don’t play the Yankees

9:07	Comment From Rated Rookie Carlos Rodon was reported to have thrown 20 changeups in his start today. Did either of you watch him pitch? Were the changeups any good? Or, how long do you think he needs in AAA?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I didn’t, but maybe Chris did?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: He needs the 3rd pitch, so this is great news.

9:08	Chris Cwik: I watched early on. His early changes were mixed. Tossed a nice one to Puig early. Got away with a bad one in the first inning. Regardless of the results, I took this as a positive sign. He’s clearly working on the one thing they want him to, and should be called up early.

9:08	Comment From Mike T AL only league, I have Ryan Rua as my 5th outfielder. What is his ceiling this year? Is he a sneaky 20 HR guy?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Definitely. But “sneaky” on March 31st is often “sad” on May 1st. So it’s good that he’s only your fifth outfielder.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I took him in an AL auction this past weekend and don’t feel good about it. I picked up Jordan Schafer as insurance.

9:10	Chris Cwik: I honestly don’t know much about Rua, so I’m hesitant to answer. I would worry about him getting enough PAs to get to 20 dingers, but it seems like he’s an intriguing power guy in a deep league.

9:10	Comment From fantasy qs donaldson and marte or rendon and teheran?

9:10	Chris Cwik: Donaldson and Marte, even if Rendon is healthy.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Marte Donaldson side and it is not close

9:10	Paul Swydan: Generally, I’d take the two hitters, and with Rendon hurt even more so.

9:11	Comment From Total Clown If you were compelled to be GM of a theoretical expansion team and given a league average payroll/amount of money for other baseball things (international signings, etc), what sort of strategies/tenets would you follow to make the team competitive as quickly as possible?

9:11	Chris Cwik: So, I think this is an exceptional question, but I want more details.

9:12	Paul Swydan: If the goal is to be competitive as quickly as possible, I’d just do what the Diamondbacks did.

9:12	Chris Cwik: Do we have access to certain players on each team? Etc.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Good bullpen and defense.

9:12	Chris Cwik: I would either try to build by grabbing cheap, young dudes who weren’t protected, though there wouldn’t be many. Or going all-in on a few stars and focusing the rest of the money on drafting, development and international prospects.

9:13	Chris Cwik: Honestly, though, fantastic question.

9:13	Comment From Forsyth Simple question. Give me your division and WC winners. I’m only going to hold you to these for 7 months. Or if they’re really bad, like 3 years worth of chats.

9:13	Paul Swydan: If Chris wants to go, he can, but Jeff and myself will be published on Friday with the rest of the staff. You have to wait!

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, wait a couple days. Someone is going to write this up for FG

9:14	Chris Cwik: Mine will be released over at Big League Stew tomorrow, and I’m going to make you wait.

9:14	Chris Cwik: Haha…fantastic.

9:14	Paul Swydan: BOOM

9:14	Comment From Minty Joc or Soler over the next 3 years?

9:14	Chris Cwik: Soler, but I worry about his health.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Soler, Peterson’s K’s may limit his upside

9:15	Paul Swydan: Awesome question. I’m tempted to say Soler because I like his style of play.

9:16	Comment From Rated Rookie What do you make of Xander and Chili’s recent comments about the former’s “jumpiness” in his swing? Have you seen any at-bats where his swing mechanics seem to be improving?

9:16	Chris Cwik: This seems like a Paul question, though I wanted to note that I took Xander late in my main fantasy league this year, and I’m really excited to watch his at-bats.

9:17	Chris Cwik: One of my favorite parts of fantasy is watching dudes I haven’t seen much of before.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: No, sorry, but too much movement is a huge red flag for me when I scout.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I don’t think a thing of it, because I don’t pay attention to stuff like this in spring training. It could be meaningful, or it could be BS. But I will say that I like Chili Davis.

9:18	Comment From Minty How much are you buying Taijan Walker for this year?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Mild.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t had the opportunity, but I am all in. He look great at the end of the 2014

9:19	Chris Cwik: I’m in on him big time as a sleeper. He’s a big-time prospect who has shown strong results this spring. And there’s a reason for those results. (ditched a cutter for a slider). So, I’m more willing to buy that.

9:20	Comment From Nittanychris In a very deep AL Only League. Please rank these back end starting pitchers: Z McAllister, K Graveman, T Milone, R Nolasco, K Gibson. Thanks!

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Gibson, Nolasco, Graveman, McAllister and Milone

9:21	Paul Swydan: Graveman/Gibson McAllister Milone Nolasco

9:21	Chris Cwik: Puke! Nolasco, Graveman, Gibson, Milone, McAllister?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I will admit to Nolasco fatigue. I’m just tired of him.

9:21	Comment From Matt If minor leaguers got paid a living wage, maybe they wouldn’t be concerned with rushing to the majors if they could afford to eat on the road…I mean Bryant isn’t a good example because his massive bonus, but still.

9:21	Chris Cwik: Honestly, I would just gamble on Graveman upside. though I don’t think he’ll get Ks

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Gibson and the velo bump he has this spring.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: about 3 mph

9:22	Chris Cwik: McAllister was getting similar buzz for his velo.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, but that was with him headed to the bullpen

9:23	Chris Cwik: There you go

9:23	Comment From Pale Hose More wins in the next 5 years Team LA or Team Chicago?

9:23	Chris Cwik: Team Chicago!

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Team LA, I will side with the teams with the higher payroll

9:24	Chris Cwik: That’s mainly based on the Angels declining due to age/bad contracts. Cubs are young. White Sox don’t have long terms commitments. Dodgers will spend.

9:24	Paul Swydan: This is an awesome, awesome, awesome question. I’ll say team Chicago.

9:24	Comment From Guest How would you feel about the Red Sox calling up Soriano? He is old and isn’t good, but a couple million for a warm body doesn’t hurt. He wouldn’t close, but why not collect all the old injury prone closers?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul, are you getting paid for everytime you say it was an “awesome question”

9:25	Chris Cwik: Red Sox signing Soriano? I think they can get by without spending the extra money.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing wrong with calling. I bet the Red Sox aren’t the only team

9:25	Paul Swydan: Quiet, Jeff! I would have no problem with the Sox signing Soriano.

9:25	Comment From Pork+Value This is not the chat for me. I generally ask shitty questions.

9:26	Chris Cwik: No, this is the chat for you.

9:26	Comment From peachesnnuts How many warm up pitches does Pat Venditte get each inning? How does he break them up?

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Huh?

9:27	Paul Swydan: The switch pitcher, Jeff.

9:27	Chris Cwik: This is, again, a great question. I honestly don’t know. He has to commit to which arm he’ll use before each batter, so I’m guessing eight. But I have no idea what happens if he changes “arms” mid-inning.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I would say he should do the opposite that the leadoff hitter is expecting, just to be a dick. That’s what I’d do, anyway.

9:28	Comment From peachesnnuts I kept Dee Gordon and billy Hamilton. Who are guys I should target who are better for me than everyone else because steals are now useless to me. I’m thinking of paying for tulo and cano because no other mi can match them for power

9:28	Paul Swydan: Well, certainly they’re the two best guys at their position.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Any 1B or C

9:29	Chris Cwik: I was thinking of late round dudes who are there solely because of their power. So, Brandon Moss or Chris Davis late.

9:29	Paul Swydan: I hear Buster Posey is good.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: He is OK

9:29	Chris Cwik: By all means, get elite dudes like you mentioned. But you have more flexibility to add those guys I mentioned later.

9:29	Comment From peachesnnuts Do hitting coaches matter? The braves are making far more contact this spring than last year and the org and media are attributing that to Kevin Seitzer

9:30	Chris Cwik: If you believe some pitching coaches matter more than others, and I certainly do, than the same must apply to hitting coaches.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: They can, but Seitzer rubs people wrong.

9:30	Paul Swydan: That strikes me as the sort of story you read when there are no actual positive stories to tell.

9:30	Chris Cwik: Greg Walker got a bad rep in Chicago, and he went straight to ATL and was hated. So…I think I get where you’re coming from.

9:30	Comment From Buggy nc Goan moncada or Addison Russell as a top prospect?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Moncada could be, but I expect Russell to get at least a half season in the majors this year, so I don’t think he’ll qualify as a prospect for much longer.

9:31	Chris Cwik: Gimme Russell. He’s closer to the majors and safer. Maybe Moncada will be a monster. You know Russell will be at least league-average.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Russell from what I here with prospect people. KLaw had Russell 10 spots higher on a list today.

9:31	Comment From Chris+(VA) Do you think Heaney will be useful this year? They seem to have a full rotation and he hasn’t impressed.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I do see him having an impact at a league average level.

9:32	Chris Cwik: He strikes me as a guy who may need to make some changes in the minors. Still think he’s an intriguing prospect, but he’s looked so bad against major-leaguers thus far.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not high on him. Too much like Andrew Miller. I hate the lefties who go way to the 1B side to throw.

9:33	Comment From Mike T Which catcher should I target: Evan Gattis or Russell Martin? I play in an OBP league, AL only.

9:33	Paul Swydan: If it’s an OBP league, Martin.

9:33	Chris Cwik: Gattis. Martin should regress after last year.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Russell. Put him out first and see if you can get him. If not, go after Gattis

9:34	Comment From Ben Would you rather have Harper and Betts or Stanton and Yelich over the next 5 years?

9:34	Chris Cwik: The latter. I know what I’m getting out of both of those guys, and I’m not sure what I’m getting from Betts yet. On top of that, I expect some improvement from Yelich. So…I’m buying the Marlins.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Man, you guys are really asking some good questions this week. Probably Stanton and Yelich.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Good question. I may go with Stanton Yelich, but damn close

9:35	Chris Cwik: Honestly, if Betts turns into Yelich, that’s a great result for the Red Sox.

9:35	Chris Cwik: So, why not take the certainty now?

9:35	Comment From Guy What do you guys think about using next year’s draft money as trade capital? For example, I just traded $10 in 2016 money for James Shields. My league allows this, but you are not allowed at any point to have more than $275 or less than $225 (We use a $250 auction budget)

9:36	Chris Cwik: Interesting idea. I think I like it. Strikes me as possibly more realistic, as teams will go over payroll at the deadline if they believe they can get into the playoffs.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like involving future resources at all in a fantasy league as a general rule. Too many teams tanking and not trying.

9:36	Paul Swydan: My league does this too! We float between $179 and $229 from a $204 base (yes, I know those are odd numbers, it just happened that way). There is always a ton of cap $ trading, it is so easy to use to even out a deal. I love it.

9:37	Comment From Dale I feel like Jimmy Rollins’ counting stars can take off this year for fantasy. He can still hit for power and is at the top of a much better lineup. Agree?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Yes. Yes I do.

9:38	Chris Cwik: You worry about age, but I think he’s probably still a top-10 or top-12 option. That probably says more about the state of SS.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Sort of. I think they may speed bump up. Not take off rocket ship style.

9:39	Comment From griff keep josh harrison in the 14th or j roll in the 21st

9:39	Paul Swydan: Rollins. Relatively same value, later round.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Harrison (IMO)

9:39	Chris Cwik: I’m not big on Harrison, but I might keep him if he has multi-position eligibility.

9:39	Comment From Steven Favorite flavor of ice cream?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Black raspberry

9:40	Chris Cwik: Cookie Dough

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Good French Vanilla

9:40	Paul Swydan: Is it weird that I thought cookie dough was a more boring choice than french vanilla?

9:41	Chris Cwik: LOG OFF

9:41	Comment From Grandpaboy Am I nuts, or is Kyle Hendricks a “sell-high” candidate as opposed to a legitimate #4 going forward? I love his make-up/mental game, but it seems like the league’s bound to catch up to his fringy stuff sooner rather than later.

9:41	Chris Cwik: I’m going to work up some poll questions.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I hate a bunch of stuff in my ice cream. Most of the time that stuff is to cover up bad base ice cream

9:42	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s a big concern. Either he will adjust or the Cubs will move on. They have some depth.

9:42	Chris Cwik: RE: Hendricks…I think he can be both. I’ve stayed away from him, but I think you could definitely find someone to buy him at a higher price than expected. He could settle in as a Tim Hudson type who doesn’t strike people out, but uses his defense well, but that’s a fine line to walk.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not buying in to him keeping it up. I think teams may attack him the 2nd or 3rd time they see him.

9:43	Comment From John Rather have Shane Greene or Zach McAllister right now?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Shane Greene. I would be surprised if McAllister holds down his spot all season.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Greene, but I should wach ZM pitch

9:44	Chris Cwik: Greene

9:46	Comment From Buggy nc Who are your under the radar, late round pitcher sleepers?

9:46	Chris Cwik: Trevor Bauer, Daniel Norris, Carlos Martinez, Taijuan Walker

9:47	Chris Cwik: ummm….there are more

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Blake Trienen (sp?) of the Nats. I like Cory Rasmus, but he is out for over a month right now.

9:47	Chris Cwik: Aaron Sanchez, Danny Duffy

9:47	Paul Swydan: CARLOS. MARTINEZ.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Inglesias for the Reds

9:47	Comment From Buggy nc Short on power, have Brantley, Rendon, votto, sweater in a 12 team. Also have Goldie, trumbo, laroche……should I trade sonny gray for a justin upton type, or hold since safe on other cats

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: If you can get someone to take Gray for Upton, do it.

9:48	Chris Cwik: I would deal Gray for Upton in a second. I don’t love Gray’s peripherals compared to elite guys.

9:48	Chris Cwik: Gray is fine, but he doesn’t have the same upside as Arrieta, even if Gray is more proven.

9:48	Paul Swydan: I can’t figure out who Sweater is…

9:49	Paul Swydan: All I can think of is Swisher.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Me either

9:49	Comment From meatballsfly can bauer, walker, martinez, norris really be considered under the radar?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I think Martinez can. But perhaps you have different suggestions?

9:50	Chris Cwik: I want to actually recommend good pitchers. I could say Jimmy Nelson or TJ House or whoever, but I have a lot less confidence in those guys and haven’t selected them in my drafts. I’ve actually gone in on the guys I recommended late, so I feel better doing in on them.

9:51	Comment From Marcus Semien (once hes SS eligible) or Alcides Escobar as a backup SS to Bogaerts? Marcus Semien (once he’s SS eligible) or Alcides Escobar as a backup SS to Bogaerts?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Semien.

9:51	Chris Cwik: I would rather take the shot with Semien. We know that Escobar is at this point.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Semien with the 3 possible positions.

9:51	Comment From Steven How many ABs do you expect out of Napoli this year? I keep reading about how he fixed his breathing issues.

9:52	Chris Cwik: 450 ABs.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: 400 … maybe. With the depth on the Red Sox roster, he will be rested any time he starts to struggle.

9:52	Paul Swydan: We have him down for 560. I think that might be a touch optimistic.

9:53	Comment From meatballsfly can the 9 1$ pitchers work in today’s fantasy realm?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. It didn’t work for Podhorzer last year, and if it can’t work for Podhorzer, it probably won’t work for you either.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but I think a 15% approach may work. I would like to try buying elite to above average closers and then get the rest at $3 or less.

9:55	Chris Cwik: I don’t think it can. That’s just asking a lot. You would have to make a ton of deals, and that can happen if you draft hitters and hit on those (safer) guys. But…why not just get a balanced team from the get-go, I guess?

9:55	Comment From Hank Boston needs a catcher no? They can’t possibly think a 34yo Hannigan can handle the brunt of the load, can they. Seems like they could use a 1 year stop gap (assuming worst case TJS for Vazquez)

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think Hanigan handles it for a month and a half before Swihart is ready.

9:56	Chris Cwik: A one-year stopgap could work, but they shouldn’t give up much in order to get one. Plus, there’s a chance Swihart could be up this year. It’s at least possible…

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are in wait and see mode right now and may try to see if anyone is available on waivers.

9:56	Chris Cwik: Either way, they have time to let it play out.

9:56	Comment From Moelicious Over-under on Altuve’s average

9:57	Chris Cwik: .307

9:57	Paul Swydan: I’ll put it at .317, and take the under.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: .305 and way under on the SB’s, could be under 30

9:57	Comment From Mat NL Only league, keep 8 (already keeping d’Arnaud, Desmond, Polanco, Pederson, Kemp, Lynn, Zimmermann), do I keep (this year only) Wright $16 or Benoit $11?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Benoit

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: At least Wright and depending on how your league values Saves, Benoit.

9:58	Chris Cwik: Keep Wright. More expensive, but if he bounces back, awesome. Benoit is a reliever and there’s no guarantee he keeps that job next season.

9:58

Comment From Owen
Do you believe the DH positional adjustment in fWAR should be upwardly adjusted? With our new understanding of “The DH penalty”, it seems that WAR should begin to reflect it. I would be in favor of keeping the negitive runs attributed to DHs as is, but artificially increasing offensive performance from PAs that came as a DH by 10% (the amount of the penalty). Either that or not docking DHs as many points for occupying their position. Thoughts? (Same goes for PH PAs)

9:59	Paul Swydan: It’s definitely a question that I’ve been thinking about recently, and I’m honestly not sure.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: The penalty is real and the amount is about right. I have 2000 words I should get to Paul to edit on the subject.