FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/12/16

by Paul Swydan

April 12, 2016

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Why match up question Paul?…….well, I guess 18% of our readers failed it

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hey, to each their own, right?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Let’s do this.

9:02	Tom: Melancon, Hanrahan, Bailey, Gagne. Just a few relievers the Red Sox have traded for that were terrible for the club. Any chance the same happens to Kimbrel and/or Smith?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Obviously there’s a chance, but I wouldn’t bet on it. At least not in Kimbrel’s case.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Boston always seems to be late to the party. I am still surprised they haven’t been able to develop more.

9:04	Andrew: 12 team 6×6 Roto, I own Jansen, Chapman, Allen, Boxberger and Giles. Can I trade Allen for Joe Ross straight up?

9:04	Paul Swydan: You could, but just because you have good depth doesn’t mean you should make a bad trade. Allen should fetch you more than Joe Ross.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I would.

9:05	Gwenyth Paltrow: I don’t think Trevor Bauer is nearly as smart of a pitcher as people think he is. Really, he just has a lot of not-very-good pitches. I also think his pre-game warm-up routine is goofy and stupid.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Thanks for stopping by, Gwenyth!

9:05	Poor Man’s Rick Reed: I feel like there is only one correct answer to this today. Any other answer requires an examination of what “best” is supposed to mean, because JOSE FERNANDEZ VS SYNDERGAARD. Come on.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree 100%

9:06	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I briefly considered making it Jose vs. Thor and Other as the two choices, but I like to put all the options just to see what people say. To be fair, on any other day, Tanaka v. Sanchez would be prime viewing.

9:06	biased fantasy owner: For a 6×6 (w, whip, qs, era, k, sv) OBP leave what kind of hitter return should I expect for Iwakuma and/or Chen? They have decent rate stats but they are my 7th and 8th pitchers and I would rather sell and stash a higher upside guy, either a saves sleeper or perhaps Giolito

9:07	Paul Swydan: Well I don’t think either is going to net you Giolito, but the quality starts I would think is a big point in the favor of Chen and Iwakuma.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Look for players who went at similar values in the auction/draft. That is how the other owners will value players this early in the season.

9:08	njs: i’m in my 3rd fangraphs chat of the day… should my employer (me) fire me?

9:08	Paul Swydan: No, he/she should probably promote you for using your time so wisely.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Hopefully you learned something before you got to this one.

9:09	Zach: 6×6 H2H league (5 standard + OPS). I have Grandal coming off my DL but Ramos has hit well so far in his stead. Do I drop one of them or Khris Davis from a bench slot?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I would drop Ramos. He usually gets hurt anyway.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure Grandal will be healthy. I may go with Davis, OF are easier to find.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Ramos hasn’t drawn a walk yet. His BABIP is .500. I’m going to call his stats unsustainable.

9:11	Big Joe Monferrant: Noah Fastball, Arrieta Cutter, Tanaka Split, Kershaw Curve, Hamels Change up, Chris Archer Slider and Bartolo Command… If you had to guess the stats put up by that pitcher, what would they be?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I’d say < 1.00 ERA.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds like Trevor Bauer

9:11	Paul Swydan: When I used to play the EA Baseball game back in like 2004, I would make myself a pitcher with 5 or 6 awesome pitches, and no one could score off me.

9:12	Eric: As a non Chapman owner, how long should I hold onto Andrew Miller? What can I expect back in a trade? 12 team, deep bench. Weak at 3B. Thanks

9:12

Paul Swydan: I would think you’d need to trade him now if you expect a full return. I can’t see why anyone would want to trade for him once Chapman gets back. As for your return, it would depend on your fellow owner’s willingness to have Miller as a set-up guy. Could be an all or nothing proposition.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Not much, owners will not usually trade for a backup. I would either keep him and hope he stays the closer or trade him to the Chapman owner.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe try to get Kang

9:14	Alex: Please discuss in regards to dynasty: 18 year old Julio Urias vs 18 year old Anderson Espinoza. Thanks

9:14	Paul Swydan: Urias is in Triple-A. Espinoza is in A ball. Espinoza may be special some day, but the only impediments to Urias being special right now is the Dodgers’ willingness to call him up.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Espinoza has just 63.1 IP as a pro. Urias – who is actually 19 this year – is well beyond that.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Urias is probably the best pitcher in the minors right now and one of the top 30 pitchers in all of baseball. And 18. Oops, Paul says 19

9:16	Paul Swydan: Yeah, we have him as 19 yrs, 8 months.

9:16	Paul Swydan: His age 19 season though.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:16	Steve: Do you expect Soler to step up and produce in Schwarber’s absence?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that it will be a one-for-one thing like that, but I do expect Soler to be better this season.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Not any more than before. I am more interested in what Baez can do when he returns.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Yeah, it would seem Baez could get some LF time.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I guess we’ll see.

9:18	Anal Hershiser: Rich Hill or Joe Ross?

9:18	Paul Swydan: This is a great question I think. Let’s put it to a poll.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Ross, just because he is in the NL and facing a pitcher more often.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yeah, you always slightly favor the NL pitcher. I don’t know, maybe I’m just too bitter that the Sox let Rich Hill walk so they could pitch Joe F’ING Kelly, but I’m tempted to pick Hill.

9:20	Anal Hershiser: How much concern (if any) with Wainwright?

9:20	Paul Swydan: If Wainwright is still not pitching well in mid-May, we can talk about being concerned then.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s getting old and has an injury history. Some. Not panic mode yet

9:21	Big Mike: Do you think there is any bounce back potential in Phil Hughes in an AL only?

9:22	Paul Swydan: By FIP-, last season was the worst of his career, so I would certainly expect some bounce back from him this season. having said that, I don’t expect him to the 5.8 WAR guy he was in 2014.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Some, but not to ’14 level. I think an average of’14 and ’15 is expected from me

9:23	Paul Swydan: Hey remember that time Blake Swihart hit a fly ball? Yeah, me neither.

9:23	Roger: Do you think the Angels break down and sell at the trade deadline this year? And if so, whom might they move?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Way too early to think about that. For now, I’ll say no.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think they think they are contenders

9:24	Ryan: The Royals handed out 700 World Series rings at a cost of over 9 million dollars. Does this explain the state of their starting rotation?

9:26

Paul Swydan: No, that’s not all that abnormal. I know all Rockies full-timers and scouts (and players and on-field personnel) got NL champs rings in 07, and that had to be on the order of 400 or so people at least. Maybe the Royals were a little more generous, but this is just the cost of doing business. It didn’t dig into the money they spend on players.

9:27	Ralph the mouth: Al only scoresheet league. I got Tyler white in the last round of the first draft series… Should I flip him for anything decent right now?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Nope, I’d hang onto him and see where this thing goes.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on what you can get. Maybe aim for someone like Moustakas or Todd Frazier

9:28	Big Mike: What kind of ETA is there in Devon Travis and do you think he can perform at the same level as last season.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Travis is a while, let me look on my last MASH Report …..

9:29	Paul Swydan: The ETA I believe is “sometime in the first half.” Jeff probably has a better estimate than that though. Assuming he comes back at full function, I like Travis to be as good as last year. I like him a lot.

9:29	Adam: Whats the deal with spitting in sports?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Men like spitting and snorting and scratching and such, and sports provides an outlet where that sort of behavior is socially permitted.

9:31	Brian: Hey, Dynamic Duo! Who wins, 20 team keeper with. OBP and total bases. A gets Hosmer and Soler, B gets Sano and Baez.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: On Travis: Late May to Late June: http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/169180854

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’d say B all the way. Sano is clearly the best player of the four, to me.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Jeff – opinion on Brian’s trade?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: B, take multiple players in a 20 team league

9:33	Paul Swydan: Robbie Ross regressing back to the mean.

9:33	Lindor Truffles: Nola for Holliday fair in a redraft?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah that seems fair.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Computer issues … well computer operator issues … soryy

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Fair trade

9:34	Roger: Highest OPS at the end of the year: Trevor Story, Tyler White, or Brock Holt?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say White.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Story, Coors factor will help a tone

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: ton

9:34	Yossarian: Is the Shark-nado in Colorado going to obliterate my stats like a trailer park?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: It could be rough, but I had McHugh and Greinke in the same league. I expect to be bottom half for a while in that league

9:36	Jon: Cervelli, M montero, nick hundly and others on the waiver wire? should i stick it out with russell martin? just the april blues

9:36	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’d ride with Russell for now.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Go with Martin, and it is the first 10-days blues

9:37	Lindor Truffles: Can we get an updated announcer’s ranking just so the world knows that the Nats have the absolute worst TV crew in the business?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Carson has started the process!

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea Carson

9:38	Mr. Wrestling IV: Rich Hill – Is he for real? 4 of his last 6 games have been 10+ Ks and <=1 BB

9:38	Paul Swydan: He’s definitely more real than Joe Kelly.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure if real, but don’t cut him right now

9:39	Paul Swydan: As I said earlier, I do like Hill a lot.

9:39	Curtis: Besides Kawasaki, who is your favorite “terrible” player? one you just can’t help but root for even though he brings little to the table every night…

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Bruce Chen

9:39	Paul Swydan: Kawasaki is definitely not on my list of favorite terrible players. But Franklin Morales is.

9:40	Mr. Wrestling IV: IMPORTANT – Is Joe Kelly a bridge troll?

9:40	Paul Swydan: He’s so bad that he’s not even good enough to be a troll. He just is terrible.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:40	Jon: Not that he needs one, but does Vin Scully always not have a color commentator? He did the game by himself today (seems lonely).

9:40	Paul Swydan: Uh, Vin always does the game by himself.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:41	Curtis: Is there a list of all the batter who have lost home runs by being “Robbed” at the wall? If so, any idea who leads it?

9:41	Paul Swydan: This is a great question. I’m pretty sure that there are lists kept for outfielders who have robbed home runs, but I have no idea if a corresponding batter list is kept. My guess is it would be a lot of hitters with 1 home run robbed.

9:41	Paul Swydan: But I’d still like to know!

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I may be able to find it out over the past 4-5 years, but nothing official

9:42	Jon: I have multiple shares of carlos gomez. Should i try and flip him? gomez? what could i get for him?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I wouldn’t. And like I said earlier, look for players taken around the same area of the draft. These should be similarly valued players

9:43	Paul Swydan: You’re going to have to hold on to him for now.

9:43	The Dude of NY: Paul, did you get a ring?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I did, yes. I had to pay taxes on it though, which was annoying.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: ?

9:44	The Dude of NY: What’s the minimum velocity a pitcher needs to be successful? Is Weaver currently acting as a case study?

9:45	Paul Swydan: He might be, ya. I’d say it’s something like 84-85, but let’s give Weaver some time here.

9:45	Paul Swydan: With the exception being the knuckleballers, obviously.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: With a 3/4 delivery, probably 83 is the min. Some side armers and submariners can get away with less.

9:45	CJ: I was passively rooting for the Royals to win a little for a while there and now I hate them. Is this normal?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Absolutely. There were a whole lot of people passively rooting for the 2004 Red Sox to win who have since turned up their noses at them (not that I blame them).

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Understandable, everyone likes the under dog until they are no longer the under dog

9:47	Justin: When you say a so and so is a +10 defender, what exactly does that mean? 10 DRS?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, or UZR. And that means 10 runs above average.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, the player saves 10 more runs than the average defender

9:48	Red in the Face: Dan Straily is 27 and looked pretty good in his only game for the Reds. Should they give him a chance to start now before Lamb and Desclafani come back to see what he can do?

9:49	Paul Swydan: He shouldn’t stand in the way of the younglings, but if there’s room, Straily is definitely worth giving a shot to.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I see no reason why not. The Reds need to be taking chances whenever they can

9:50	Your Name: Who makes a bigger impact this year (performance and volume of starts): Urias, Berrios or Giolito? It is realistic to think any of them will be studs out of the gate, or have we been spoiled by the likes of Thor recently?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Berrios.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Berrios … Giolito ……………………………Urias. I have a notion the Nats will get to Giolito soon if their starting staff is struggling

9:51	Lance Mannion: Hi Guys Whoops Do you think that Zych can jump over Benoit for saves if and when Cishek fails

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yes, I think there is that potential for sure, especially if Benoit’s shoulder problem becomes an actual thing.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: No. Got to go with the “proven” closer.

9:52

Chipmunknunchuks: How good is the SF Giants Offense going to be this yr? Plenty of talk re: regression for all of their young, developing players around the IF – which sounds strange to say, but was certainly a theme for some pessimism. Guess I personally view them as a potentially very effective “no holes” type lineup.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I believe in the Giants offense. I actually picked the Giants to win the West.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: They are OK and should be good enough to make the playoffs

9:53	Jon: When do you expect Berrios to arrive?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Next week or so is the highest chance IMO

9:54	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. It depends on how the Twins view themselves. If they viewed themselves as contenders who are having a bad start, then Berrios could come quickly to help patch it up. If they’re resigned to being bad all year, there’s no reason to rush him.

9:54	Watching the Mets: Do you think Park will lose playing time? Would you drop him for Valencia or David Wright? Thanks!

9:55	Paul Swydan: No, and no.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No and no.

9:56	Curtis: If a bad to average pitcher had one great secondary pitch he threw that was pretty much unhittable, would he be better if he tried to throw it more often? or would it make him worse eventually because players could have more reps to adjust?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Would depend on which secondary pitch it is. You can’t just throw sliders and curves all day, it’s too much torque on your arm.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Convert him into a reliever

9:57	Bob: Thor is throwing pitches that seem to be unprecedented. Is there any chance he doesn’t blow his arm out?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Of course there’s a chance. Fingers crossed!

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Just enjoy it while it lasts and remember Strasburg, Fernandez and Harvey

9:58	Jake M: Yelich has been an on base machine so far this season, 2 more times tonight. How good can he be offensively this year after three straight 117 wRC+ years?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I could see him between 130-140 wRC+, but I don’t think any more than that. Like you said, he’s established a pretty strong baseline.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I see him as a potential 125 to 130 wRC+ player.