FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/15/14

by Paul Swydan

April 15, 2014

6:00	Paul Swydan: Happy Tax Day everybody! In honor the big day, here you go: http://vimeo.com/34934693 Jeff and I will be by at 9 pm ET to answer all of your baseball and/or baseball questions. Or other stuff. Whatever’s on your mind. See you soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Ah, sports. Where, “you better some dirt on that injury, bro” is said by the same people that say, “oh, dude, totally wear that ski mask tonight, it’s FREEZING!”

9:02	Comment From Jake Was offered Upton and Liriano for Braun…Good deal?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I like this deal, yes.

9:02	Paul Swydan: With the caveat that Braun’s thumb is OK. I guess Jeff knows that better than I do.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, Braun’s thumb injury is not going away

9:02	Comment From Schilling & Pence I’m holding A. Bradley and J. Baez in a deep league. How soon, if at all, before each comes up?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think Bradley will be up by June, though his agent isn’t doing him any favors. I think Baez has an outside shot at a September call-up with a monster season, but he’s probably more likely to come up in 2015.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: It is around June 1 to avoid Super 2.

9:03	Comment From Adam Who are the relievers who are not currently closers who have the best chance to move into the closer’s role?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems like half of them.

9:04	Paul Swydan: We get this every week. Your best bet is to check the daily Bullpen Report. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

9:04	Paul Swydan: The obvious answer tonight is if you haven’t grabbed David Carpenter (the ATL one), do so now. If you can.

9:04	Comment From Jimbo What are your SSS thoughts on Dellin Betances. Obviously he has wicked stuff, but what do you make of him.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen him, sorry.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I had never been all that impressed with him before, but granted he’s never been in the majors before. I’m encouraged, but we’ll see. The stuff seems to be playing up in the bullpen.

9:06	Comment From Jimbo I know this wouldnt happen… BUT.. If the yankees called the Braves about Simmons, what would the yankees have to give up to get him? Would J.R Murphy, Ivan Nova, Dellin Betances and 1 B prospect (Slade Heathcott for ex) be enough?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. You’re talking about a guy with an outside shot to be the best defensive shortstop of all-time. Those guys don’t come around too often.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I am a little warmer to it. How about the Yankees develop a farm system and get some actual prospects to trade.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Also that.

9:07	Comment From B.J Uptons swing Who says no.. Yanks get: Franklin + 1 prospect..Mariners Get: David Phelps and Manny Banuelos.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I think the Mariners say no even if you take away the +1 prospect.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Mariners.

9:08	Comment From Jimbo Craig Kimbrel dealing with some shoulder issues.. Big Deal, Little Deal, No Deal?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably medium deal, it is tough to find injuries with relievers since they throw so little per game.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: BRB

9:10	Comment From Jimbo Would it be shocking if in 25 years,MLB had smaller rotations and simply used RPs for most of the innings? It seems like young power RPs are popping up everywhere and a BUNCH of SPs are getting hurt all the time.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see paired starters first.

9:11

Paul Swydan: It wouldn’t be shocking, however I would bet against it happening. I think that this is one of those game theory questions that will always exist outside of the sphere of actual play.

The fact of the matter is that starting pitchers get paid more, and therefore pitchers are going to have the incentive to always try and be traditional starters so that they can increase their potential net worth.

9:12	Paul Swydan: We saw the Rockies’ experiment of 80 pitches a game and four starters fail because the pitchers HATED it. Now, maybe the Rockies didn’t go about it in the best way, but I don’t think most pitchers would be receptive no matter how it was presented to them.

9:12	Comment From Clueless harp Most interesting SSS storyline this season so far is ______________________________________.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Utley, I figured he was done a couple of seasons ago.

9:13	Paul Swydan: There’s a bunch. From Brewers win streak to are the Rangers good to what’s wrong with Dustin Pedroia to everything Yasiel Puig to did we underrate the Giants (or, did Paul?) to hey look how bad the Dbacks are.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I could keep going.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Utley is a good one also.

9:14	Comment From Intelectual Violin If you guys had to pick up a bat and DH for 500 AB.. What would your slash lines be? Also what would be your best positions?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Pedroia has a bum thumb.

9:14	Paul Swydan: .000/.100/.000

9:14	Paul Swydan: And that’s probably generous.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Unless, I was against Moyer, zeros. I would have to go for HBP. I would be at 1B right now. I can’t move at all until I get knee surgery.

9:15	Comment From Harmfull Picolo Your Favorite Band now and of all-time is?

9:16	Paul Swydan: A Tribe Called Quest. I don’t really have a favorite right now, I guess. Unless Kendrick Lamar counts as a band.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: none right now. Alabama count?

9:17	Comment From Adam What do you think about CC so far? Fantastic K/BB, but run prevention hasn’t followed due to him giving up lots of homers. Is he showing good enough peripherals to believe he has made the adjustments to be successful at lower velo?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I am confident that he will figure it out, yes.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. The drop may have been to far too fast. I am working on a THT article on this subject.

9:18	Comment From kevinthecomic Hey, i just tried to view tonight’s free game on mlbtv.com (sea vs tex). However, the game had no sound. Is this how they do the free game or was there a glitch tonight?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Gotta be glitch. I’ve watched the favorite game plenty, and have never encountered that.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t had it on.

9:19	Comment From Keith Yahoo to Fangraphs at the touch of a button, given the yahoo page format change, is this being updated? If you don’t know can you look into it? Thanks. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Uh.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I’ll ask The Dark Overlord about that. For the record, this is the first I’ve seen of this. But I will ask.

9:20	Comment From Andrew The White Sox have scored 80 runs so far this year in 13 games. Do you guys think there’s a chance they might actually have a good offense?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I mean, I don’t think Gillaspie is going to hit .340 all year, nor do I think Ramirez is going to hit .420. But they could be better than we thought, yes.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: They will score runs in the sandbox they play in. They key will be prevention.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Ooooooh, Ortiz is HOT!

9:21	Paul Swydan: Called out on a check swing. Debatable. Not sure why he’s so mad.

9:22	Comment From Sam Off topic perhaps, but does anyone else that you know of have problems streaming mlb.tv on their Roku? Some games are fine, some games constantly buffering. I just want to know I’m not alone and that it’s not my equipment’s fault. Thanks.

9:22	Paul Swydan: When I used to watch on my PS3 it was spotty all the time. I just watch on my computer now. Looking forward to getting a Chromecast and trying that out though.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Try: http://mlb.mlb.com/mediacen…

9:22	Paul Swydan: I have also heard of people having problems on Roku on Twitter.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: A little different wording on the link.

9:23	Comment From Also Jimbo JZ, did I read too much into your Aging Curves piece or am I right to get annoyed that I am still constantly reading statements like “and don’t forget, Hitter X is only 24, hasn’t hit those peak years yet…”

9:24	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: A bit, but players did seem to peak different just a few years ago. It is the first time with a large shift in the hitter curve. It will be interesting if it stays.

9:25	Comment From kevinthecomic how come porky pig never wears pants, but when he goes swimming, he puts on a bathing suit?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: sows dig the stripes.

9:26	Paul Swydan: We could do this all day. Far more egregious is, how come a talking mouse has a dog for a pet that doesn’t talk. And how do they justify having a dog that is a pet and a dog that isn’t a pet? (Talking about Mickey, Pluto and Goofy in case that wasn’t clear)

9:26	Comment From john It gets buffer-y on an apple TV as well

9:26	Comment From Guest just got a roku streaming stick and mlbtv has been great on it for the first few weeks. chrome castdoesn’t support mlbtv…yet at least

9:26	Paul Swydan: Yah, I’m sure it will eventually. You don’t mess with the Google.

9:26	Comment From zurzles dammit paul! i thought ortiz got me a HR.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Sorry. Nava just homered, if it’s any consolation.

9:27	Comment From Jaack Hamburgers at the ballpark just make no sense. You can easily find better burgers just about anywhere, and you can easily find better food at a baseball game.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Agreed, in general. One exception – the Helton Burger at Coors Field. That thing is legit.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know if I have ever eaten a burger at a game.

9:28	Comment From Conrad Strasburg….what the heck is going on there??!!

9:28	Comment From john Strasburg is done. Just an observation

9:28	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that has been an interesting story line as well.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I need to look into him on for MASH on Thursday

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yet another reminder of just how colossally stupid it was for the Nats to hold him out of the playoffs in 2012. Just in case that wasn’t clear already.

9:29	Comment From John Prediction on a career WAR for Miguel Cabrera?

9:29	Paul Swydan: 75ish.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not too optimistic… I don’t think is body will age well.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Another 3-4 years in the 6 range, and then another 4-5 years in the 2-3 range.

9:30	Comment From zurzles camden yards has bacon on a stick. and it’s delicious.

9:30	Paul Swydan: It’s just a piece of bacon? That seems odd.

9:30	Comment From stonepie how soon do the indians put bauer in the rotation?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Isn’t all bacon generally

9:31	Paul Swydan: As soon as someone gets hurt.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Jeff, you just blew my mind!

9:31	Comment From stonepie my vote-lobell’s steak sandwich at yankee stadium

9:32	Paul Swydan: Never had that. Maybe next time.

9:32	Comment From kevinthecomic i think they have a $25 hamburger at texas — supposed to be for a a family of 4, but i remember during one broadcast last year they kept showing one big guy in the stands eating one

9:32	Paul Swydan: Why the hell would you want to split a hamburger with other people. Then you have to use a fork….or risk accidentally kissing three people.

9:33	Comment From Meano Eno WHAT IF YOU WANT TO KISS 3 PEOPLE PAUL

9:33	Comment From stonepie now im picturing 4 drunk guys devouring a huge hamburger and it ending like lady and the tramp

9:33	Paul Swydan: Then you probably should come up with a better strategy than “let’s go to a Rangers game and spend $25 on a hamburger.”

9:34	Paul Swydan: Hahhaha

9:34	Comment From Nittanychris Do the Indians send Carrasco to the pen for a while and give Bauer a shot? If so, when? Thanks!

9:34	Paul Swydan: I think we have to give Carrasco more than 10 innings before they cut bait on him. His FIP isn’t “yank me from the rotation bad.”

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the DL is coming to one of Masterson, Kubeler or Salazar. They need to keep Bauer for one of them.

9:35	Comment From Mike Is leading off the best spot in the order for Carlos Gomez?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Gomez is one of their three best hitters, right? So you want him either hitting 1,2 or 4. Maybe he’d be better off in the two-hole, but I don’t think it’s a huge deal.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see a problem in where near the top, order doesn’t matter that much.

9:36	Comment From ST3 Giancarlo now has 21 RBIs. Over/under 200 on the season?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Over of course.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Uh, for the guy whose career high in PA is 601? Under. Way under.

9:37	Comment From jp Any chance Chipper’s advice fixed Upton’s swing? Any chance he gets to .250 this year? And any thoughts on Marcell Ozuna?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul = funny killer.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I never know with these April questions if they’re serious or not. Maybe that guy really thinks 200 RBI is in play!

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Upton just seems done.

9:38	Paul Swydan: As for Chipper and Upton, I mean, there’s a chance, but I doubt it. As for Ozuna, yes, I like him. Tempering expectations, but if you want to let your imagination run wild, I think you should.

9:38	Comment From ST3 (for the record, I do not think 200 RBIs are in play.)

9:39	Paul Swydan: OK, cool. Glad we got that squared away. I apologize for being a wet blanket then!

9:39	Comment From Sgt. Pepper 200 RBIs isn’t in play but maybe 80 home runs is

9:39	Comment From Guest Dom Brown or Myers in a 10-team using Fangraphs points?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Myers as in Wil Myers? Def Wil Myers.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Myers.

9:40	Comment From Jake One slot, 14 team mixed, speculating on saves: Carpenter, Germen or H. Rondon?

9:40	Paul Swydan: The order in which you have it.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems OK.

9:42	Comment From Matt I’m taking the “it’s April” approach to my fantasy slumpers, but at what point is it fair to bail on an RP? My Perkins/Jansen/Brothers relief corps has weighed me down more often than it’s helped me, and the grass looks greener on the waiver wire.

9:42	Paul Swydan: I would absolutely be sticking with Perkins and Jansen, but I think you can safely dump Brothers.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, I am not sold on Perkins, he had a huge velo drop.

9:43	Comment From Brad I have a trade bully on my case. He’s hounding me for rejecting his offer to trade his Jose Fernandez for my Belt, Wheeler and Kubel. He’s says I’m foolish for rejecting it. Am I?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I would do it depending on my 1B replacement

9:44	Paul Swydan: I would probably take that trade, to be honest. I wouldn’t call you foolish for rejecting it, but I would take it if I was you, unless you really can’t get a good 1B in place of Belt.

9:44	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Does this count as a pulled pork sandwich: http://tinyurl.com/3s5vmaf

9:44	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Yes, that’s BBQ pulled pork topped with bacon and ham

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’ll allow it!

9:44	Comment From Shea Hillebrand Who you got ROS, Kluber or Kazmir? Is it simply a matter of health versus effectiveness?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Kazmir, but healthwise Jeff knows better than I do.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Kazmir, but I would watch the next start in detail with his last “minor” injury.

9:46	Comment From Daniel B What do you all think of Gary Sanchez? Does he break through with Yanks or get traded? C or 1b? Every year I feel like he gets further away.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I’m told he probably won’t see the majors much this season, if at all. Have no real opinion on him aside from that though.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I see them trading him for some help at the deadline.

9:47	Comment From Ruben Rivera Is Puig capable of staying healthy, on the field, and disciplined enough to reach 500 at-bats this season? If so, what’s your guess at his triple slash line?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. I’ll say something like .290/.350/.510.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: .300/.350/.450

9:48	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Some people just don’t feel like workin god bless em

9:48	Paul Swydan: Oh, Ned Flanders. You’re the best.

9:48	Comment From Owen The more I read FanGraphs (which has been obsessively of late), the more I find myself hating Baseball Tonight/Sports Center/TV announcers etc. The unsophisticated and downright erroneous analysis literally hurts my body.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Baseball on ESPN unwatchable.

9:49	Paul Swydan: It’s been quite awhile since I watched Sportscenter, but a good portion of that is that I don’t want my kids to a) be watching TV all the time and b) even if they are, I’m not ready to explain beer commercials to them just yet.

9:49	Comment From Osberry try watching Harold Reynolds…

9:50

Comment From Guest
Do you all think that MLB’s quest to speed up every game of baseball is possibly to blame for the recent rash of elbow injuries? I know that, for myself, if I’m working out and try to rush I’m much more sore than if I take my time, am more deliberate in my form, and allow for more time between sets.

9:50	Comment From Osberry Harold Reynolds on why diving into first is faster, “you don’t see Michael Phelps jump into the pool…he dives”

9:50	Paul Swydan: I don’t think the games actually have been faster, so no. I don’t see this as a factor. Though I do agree with your notion in theory.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t noticed the speed up.

9:51	Comment From Tru Is Jesse Chavez the real deal? I know SSS and all that, but he’s absolutely cut through some good lineups.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I remember his time with KC and he was completely unwatchable. He had some amazing HR/9 values.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think that he has a fairly unique pitch mix (just 11% four-seam fastball but 40% cutter), so I think there’s a good chance that guys will just be unfamiliar/not used to that the first time they see him as a starter. Let’s see if it pans out for another month or so.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: 3.5 HR/9

9:53	Paul Swydan: Wow, 8 Ks for Jake Peavy.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Though 2 are against Flowers.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Still, 6 Ks for Jake Peavy.

9:53	Comment From ST3 Is Braun for Bautista straight up selling too low at this point, or about fair given Braun’s thumb concerns?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I mean, it’s a nice deal for the moment, but it’s not like Bautista has been the second coming of the Iron Man in recent years.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I would make the trade for Bautista.

9:54	Comment From Nittanychris How concerned should I be about Billy Butler? I’m just writing it off as a bad start and penciling him in for 18 HRs and 90 RBI. Right or wrong?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think you’re right. Jeff?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: It would be nice to see the whole team get going at some point. The numbers are bad, but Butler may not age the best.

9:56	Comment From JV are you buying Garrett Richards?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I have. A lot of worse pitchers out there right now.

9:56	Paul Swydan: His walk rate is 16.7%. I think he can be at least average, like last year, but I am not banking on much more at this point.

9:58	Comment From The Muskrat Marauder I just can’t help but be giddy about drafting Alex Wood and Tim Hudson. Huge bargains where I drafted them. They can sustain, right?

9:58	Paul Swydan: If they’re healthy, I like both.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I don’t see why not.

9:59	Comment From kevinthecomic Anyone switching over to the series premiere of Fargo here in a couple of minutes? Has a chance to be good. Might be terrible.