FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/22/14

by Paul Swydan

April 22, 2014

6:04	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is off tonight, so I’ll be flying solo. So fill up the queue and we’ll talk some baseballs at 9 pm ET.

9:02	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this!

9:02	Comment From Matt I just traded Xander Bogaerts, Michael Pineda for Mark Trumbo. We use R/HR/RBI/SB/OBP/Slugging….My HR/RBI are worst in league by a lot already and I have both Choo and Votto to offset OBP. Good trade?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I guess that depends on how much we should buy Pineda. And if it’s a dynasty league. If it’s a redraft league, I think you did a good job of filling needs. If it’s a dynasty league, I don’t like it very much. Esp w OBP as a category.

9:03	Comment From TheGoodPhight/David What are the odds that Cliff Lee’s FA contract is the best large contract (100MM+) ever?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I think it’ll be up there. It’s definitely an area where I would like to see more research. IIRC, Manny Ramirez’s deal was pretty good. And A-Rod’s FIRST deal was more than worth it. I’m sure there are others. But Lee is definitely going to be up there if he keeps this up.

9:04	Comment From JV Who becomes closer first and the longest for the season? Mark Melancon or Danny Farquhar?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Melancon, just because I expect Seattle to be more stubborn than Clint Hurdle will. Hurdle is generally flexible with his closer spot. Rockies don’t make their run in ’07 if he doesn’t swap out Fuentes for Corpas.

9:06	Comment From Josh C In a different chat it was explained to me Brooks Baseball uses pitch speed from 55 feet while pitch fx is from 50 feet. Which one would be right to use when talking about a pitchers velocity?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Well, obviously Brooks thinks his is best, and I don’t really have an argument that is better than Dan’s in terms of accuracy. But I believe we’re all more used to the PITCHf/x numbers. Although, FWIW, I think you have that backwards.

9:07	Comment From Mr. Impatience Hey Paul! Thinking of cutting Freese even in a 12 team H2H deep rosters. He’s Freeseing errr ice cold and I’m losing hope. Too soon?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Not too soon.

9:07	Comment From Ace Should I start Matthew Cain tomorrow @Colorado?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think it’s fine. The Rockies have been hot, but they’ve been playing a lot of not good teams also.

9:09	Comment From Guest The 2004 105 win St. Louis Cardinals featured the “MV3”, Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, who combined for 25 WAR. The rest of the position players combined for 8.8 WAR, and their pitching staff combined for 13.9 WAR.

9:09	Comment From BMarkham Sorry hit return to fast. Is the 2004 Cardinals the most top heavy playoff team in history?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think they would definitely be up there, though it would depend on how you’re measuring it – regular season or postseason? The regular season version didn’t have Larry Walker for 4 of the 6 months, but he was there in the postseason and gave the team another dimension in the 2-hole.

9:10	Comment From Ryan Is Charlie Blackmon a good pickup if my outfield already has Pence, Gonzalez, Marte, Springer and McCutchen?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think if you have room for him it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have him on the roster,if for no other reason than to keep him off of other teams, but you already have a top notch outfield, and Blackmon is sure to come down from this high soon.

9:11	Comment From Awake in Seattle Thoughts on Brad Miller? Should fantasy owners be looking for a replacement at SS?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I am still confident in Miller.

9:12	Paul Swydan: But if you need a short-term fix and have a roster spot, I could see picking someone up to help in the short term.

9:12	Comment From Cal Guy Are the Cardinals giving up on Wong this early?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Ellis hadn’t played much before these past few games, and Wong isn’t exactly lighting it up. I’d file this more under “giving the kid a breather and keeping Ellis fresh” than “giving up.”

9:13	Comment From Bill Drop Bucholz?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I’m fine with this. I cut him in Ottoneu.

9:13	Comment From Guest How should Travis Wood’s early season numbers be interpreted? K/9, SwSt% are both way up with 25 IP.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Wood was good last year, and appears to be just as good this year. Having said that, he got a little lucky in that NYY game. 11 hits in 5.2 innings generally equals more than two runs allowed.

9:14	Comment From Texas Dolly Has Kevin Kouzmanoff played his way into a DH-platoon once Beltre returns?

9:15	Paul Swydan: He’s played his way into something, which is more than he had a month ago. I don’t know if it’ll be a straight up platoon, but he should at least hold down a roster spot for the foreseeable future. For a guy who I thought was done, that’s pretty impressive.

9:15	Comment From Nervous Nellie Fox I own Puig, Ed Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre, Brad Miller, Martin Prado, Danny Salazar, Nate Jones, and Taijuan Walker. Loved my team but now not so sure. Too soon to turn to drink?

9:16	Paul Swydan: In one league, I have Votto, Carlos Santana, Calhoun, Nate Jones, Casey Janssen, Posey and Puig. All slumping or hurt. In a couple of weeks, it’ll be better. I keep telling myself that.

9:16	Comment From American League Hustle Is Shawn Kelley worth hanging on to now that Robertson is back?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I think even if he doesn’t get saves, he is one of those RPs that get enough Ks to be worth a roster spot.

9:17	Comment From Rufus T. Firefly I own lots of hitters from the Cubs, Royals and Jays. Is that a disastrous mistake?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Depends on the hitters. 🙂

9:17	Paul Swydan: It’s only a mistake in as much as I don’t like having too many players from the same team on my fantasy team because if they run into a buzzsaw, then my whole night is ruined.

9:17	Comment From Sneaky Pete At what point, as a fantasy owner, do you give up on Steamer projections and believe what’s actually happening on the field.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Since we have the R and U projections, essentially never.

9:17	Comment From Rufus T. Firefly Danny Salazar. I loved him so. His cute hairdo and nasty slider. Will he make me cry with joy or sorrow tonight?

9:18	Paul Swydan: This came in at 6:58. If would appear Rufus is leaning towards sorrow right now. Sorry Rufus.

9:18	Comment From stonepie good time to buy low on puig or legit concern?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Good time to buy low.

9:18	Comment From Guest A. Cabrera or Bogaerts?

9:18	Paul Swydan: You must be new here.

9:18	Paul Swydan: (Bogaerts)

9:18	Comment From Alabaster Jones My M. Prado for his Cole Hamels?

9:19	Paul Swydan: If Hamels is healthy, that’s a steal for you.

9:19	Comment From osund If you are Francona, do you send Salazar to AAA, make Carrasco the longman, and put Tomlin and Bauer in the rotation?

9:19	Paul Swydan: If I’m Francona, that’s more changes than I want to make all at once.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Specifically, I think it is overreacting to send Salazar to the minors.

9:19	Comment From Ben i am in the midst of a possible blockbuster in a 16 teamer. My Miggy Cabrera, Santos, De Aza and Chris Young for His Bruce, Rizzo, Costellanos, and Eovaldi. Do I take this one? I could also try to sub out Rizzo for Cole or J Upton?

9:20	Paul Swydan: If you follow the never give up the best player principle, then I’d hold fast. Bruce and Rizzo is a strong 2-3, but I’m just not blown away by your return.

9:20	Comment From Sneaky Pete Okay, so who do YOU think gets the most saves for the Mets? Any reason to hang onto Vic Black for a little bit longer?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think if they wanted Black to get them, he’d be getting them right now. I’d stick with Farnsworth for now.

9:21	Comment From Rick Pujols has had a nice rebound so far this year– does it last, and do you like the Angels in the AL West if it does?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m not ready to bury Pujols just yet. And I still think the Angels contending is more about the pitching than it is Pujols, but a healthy Pujols gives them at least a shot.

9:21	Comment From Bert What’re your thoughts on Robbie Erlin in San Diego? Great control in the minors, and had impressive K-rates as well.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think it’s unlikely that he maintains this K rate.

9:23	Comment From Jaack Going into today, 16 of the 30 teams in baseball had either 9 wins or 9 losses. This seems important.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Hmmmmm.

9:23	Comment From Bird Man Ubaldo Jimenez…worth the roller coaster in a 14 team roto mixer?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Once you get past 12 teams, then Ubaldo becomes more valuable, so I’ll say yes.

9:23	Comment From Guest Rank ’em…Eovaldi, Skaggs, Mejia.

9:23	Paul Swydan: I like Mejia best, and then Eovaldi and Skaggs. The caveat is that Mejia can self combust at any time, so Eovaldi and him may be 1-1A.

9:24	Comment From Calvin Whats wrong with Gyorko? When do you cut bait?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, Gyorko is the other guy on the team I mentioned earlier. He is never going to hit for a high average. He’s basically the next Dan Uggla. Not a lot of MI with his power. I’m holding for another week or two before I take drastic measures.

9:25	Comment From Dolphin #2 from the Home Run Statue Am I wrong to be excited about the Marlins in the next couple of years? Fernandez, Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, Eovaldi, Alvarez, Turner, Cishek… feels like a lot of good young players.

9:25	Paul Swydan: They have a good amount of talent, but you need to build around that, and the front office has shown no inclination to build around a core in a manner that would allow a young team to be a legitimate, lasting contender. So I’m still pessimistic.

9:26	Comment From john According to cbs, the cubs would really like versa to regain the closers role. Any chance that’s realistic? And does Henderson ever get the job back, roenicke really screwed my nl onl keeper league team.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I think both things are still possible, though I give Henderson better odds than Veras.

9:26	Comment From Guest When you say buy low on Puig, does a trade of Gardner/Archer qualify as low or way too low?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Just low. Both of those guys are useful pieces in a fantasy league, but they’re not Puig.

9:27	Comment From Bill What will the Red Sox do with Rubby De La Rosa? He is just good

9:27	Paul Swydan: Well, Buchholz and Peavy have been knocked around a little. Perhaps there is a phantom/real DL stint in one of their futures.

9:27	Comment From Rick Billy Hamilton is now 5th in SBs, 173rd in OBP among qualified batters.

9:27	Paul Swydan: That’s pretty amazing.

9:27	Comment From osund New idea, Salazar for 3-4 innings, Carrasco for 3-4, then bullpen. Both have been good first time thru the order, but having both in the rotation is killing the Tribe’s pen.

9:28	Paul Swydan: If you can get them to buy in on that strategy, more power to you. But I think you’ll find that that is a tough sell.

9:28	Comment From Marvin Time to call Brett Lawrie what he is? Which is a poor man’s Martin Prado?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I mean I called him that last year, basically. He’s a 2-3 win player, and there is nothing wrong with that, but he’s not a star.

9:28	Comment From 500 Club What’s your updated rank on Pujols? Looks good and healthy. Even stole a base the other night. Rather have him or Bautista?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Close. I’d rather have Bautista I think, but it’s very close.

9:29	Comment From Ryan Volquez, Chavez or Harang Ros?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Chavez, Harang, Volquez.

9:29	Comment From Doug Colby Lewis worth a bench spot in an 8 team AL only?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Probably.

9:29	Comment From Michael What’s the minimum OBP Billy Hamilton needs to maintain to stay in the Reds lineup?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I would say .320. Hard to see him as valuable if he can’t get to .320.

9:30	Comment From Jills Nipple Did Jason HeywArd peak with his first AB HR? Obviously he’s talented and has the tools, but even at his young age is the ZIPS for this season the best that we can look for going forward?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Well, his Steamer R projection is more optimistic, but I think both of them are more what we will see. Don’t give up hope. It’s still early.

9:31	Comment From Michael Who belongs in the minors the least? Pederson, Polanco, Bradley Jr or Singleton?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Assuming you mean Archie Bradley and not Jackie Bradley Jr., then Archie. Then Polanco.

9:31	Comment From Wes Who got the less bad end of the Freese-Bourjous trade?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Cardinals, because they also got Grichuk.

9:32	Comment From stonepie my hosmer for his craig?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Probably rather have Hosmer because I expect him to be healthy all year and I don’t expect Craig to be.

9:32	Comment From Anthony from the Prince Commercials Dump Brad Miller’s upside for Derek Jeter’s old world consistency?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I would give it another week or so.

9:32	Comment From Adrian Is Taveras still subject to the Super 2 this year since he would have been called up last year if it weren’t for the ankle injury?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yes. What teams might have done unfortunately don’t factor into things.

9:33	Comment From Guest Brett Gardner or Eric Young rest of the season?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Gardner

9:33	Comment From Pujols500 Eovaldi is still available in my league. Should I ditch Peavy for him?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I would, yes.

9:33	Comment From NoKlew What’s wrong with the DBs in my league? I’m being vilified for poo pooing trade offers of Puig and then Kimbrel for my Goldschmidt. He’s a top 10 guy and a 4 category stud. WTF?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Ah, the ole bitch bitch bitch until the nice guy caves and trades the guy for less than fair value routine. Stay strong!

9:35	Comment From atoms Is Matt Kemp just rusty and finding his groove again, or is he just not very good anymore? He’s still pretty young.

9:35	Paul Swydan: He has a 121 wRC+. His BABIP is wayyyyyy under his career norm. When that rebounds, his paltry batting average will rebound with it. I think he’ll be fine if he stays healthy.

9:35	Comment From Taro John Who is the best prospect in baseball and why is is Mookie Betts?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Byron Buxton was the consensus #1 prospect this year. And yes, Mookie Betts is great.

9:36

Comment From Daniel B
I always hear about pitchers making adjustments to rookie hitters, and inevitably hear that they start throwing the rookie more breaking stuff. Is this me selectively remembering or announcers being bad? Or is that generally the case? Seems like that is an unlikely trend for pitchers to just not adjust to.

9:37	Paul Swydan: This is one of those anecdotal notions that you see mentioned frequently but that I have never seen tested. It would be a lot of fun to look into, methinks.

9:37	Comment From Rick What do the Reds do wit Simon after (if?) Latos comes back? And thanks for the chat tonight!

9:37	Paul Swydan: I don’t think Mike Leake is a guy that needs to be in the rotation. If Simon keeps being this good, I would keep him in the rotation over Leake.

9:38	Comment From Guest More likely to win NL Cy Young: Wainright or Fernandez?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Wainwright, just because no one cares about the Marlins.

9:38	Comment From Julian Good time to buy low on Will Venable?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I don’t think Will Venable is a guy who is good enough that you look for opportunities at which to buy him low. He’s a guy you pick up when he’s on a hot streak and you ride it.

9:39	Comment From Guest Which pitcher do you think Joc Pederson gets trader for?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I bet you want me to say something like Cliff Lee. I don’t think it will be Cliff Lee. More like a Miguel Gonzalez or someone of that 2nd-3rd tier starter ilk.

9:40	Comment From Dustin Is the Brewers SP legit? They obviously can’t keep up their pace but they are 5 deep and Gallardo looks like the Gallardo from 2 years ago.

9:42

Paul Swydan: The Brewers have a few guys who have high floors and high ceilings. There are definitely scenarios where all five of them have career years, and those career years are good enough to make them an elite rotation. But I think it’s probably more likely that they fall back to the pack shortly.

9:42	Comment From Guest re: Joc Pederson. I was going to say “when does Cliff Lee get traded for Joc Pederson?”

9:42	Paul Swydan: I KNEW IT!

9:42	Paul Swydan: FWIW, I think if Pederson goes for Lee, there will be a few other players heading from LA to Philly.

9:42	Comment From GMitch Mookie/Owens/WMB/Barnes/Webster for Stanton who says no

9:43	Paul Swydan: Probably still the Marlins. I think you have to do better than Barnes/Webster at the back end.

9:43	Comment From Tony Can we expect Abraham Almonte to remain a starter for the rest of the season?

9:43	Paul Swydan: No, but I expect him to remain in the mix all year.

9:43	Comment From Ballpark Frank Dyson worth a pickup now that Cain is hurt?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Only if you’re desperate for steals.

9:43	Comment From Ballpark Frank What do you see from Dickerson now that Cuddyer is on the DL? That offense is steamrolling teams.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I argued all spring that Dickerson should be the starter and not Blackmon. Obviously Blackmon is taking a lot of the starch out of that argument at the moment, but I still think Dickerson is the better player long term.

9:44	Comment From Ballpark Frank Carlos Santana has been putrid so far this season. Is this because he is playing a new position? He just doesnt look himself right now.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I believe he is also battling a quad injury, which, could be a product of playing a new position. But he’s too good to hit this way for too much longer.

9:45	Comment From Lars Justin Masterson looked good in his last start after 2 poor outings. Can we expect him to be a quality starter for the rest of the season?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Yes, all of his plate discipline ratios are where they should be.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I wrote about the Indians this week for ESPN Insider/FG+ if you subscribe to either.

9:45	Comment From Garrett Anderson Talk to me about Kluber, should the society be disbanded?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Nope, too much fun, and I think he puts it back together to the point where he can be a competent #3 starter.

9:46	Comment From Wes Would you be playing Kipnis or Dozier on a daily basis?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Kipnis

9:46

Comment From Contrite in Concord
This is more of a morality question than anything. But I was offered David Wright for Chris Sale last night (I really need a third baseman, Lawrie just isn’t doing it for me) of course this morning I see that Sale has been placed on the DL. I accepted the trade anyway. It hasn’t been vetoed yet, should I feel bad?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’s a low blow. Sorry. I get why you did it, but I would have rejected it.

9:47	Comment From Anon21 Fernandez v. Wood in Atlanta living up to the billing so far. Both young guns just mowing down hitters.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Damn David Laurila is at that game tonight. He is rubbing it in on Facebook too, that jerk.

9:47	Comment From Jaack At what point this season will the total number of Tigers’ games surpass the number of DBacks’ losses?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Ha ha. Another week or so???

9:48	Comment From Joe Don’t see a lot of commentary about Marcell Ozuna, but he has been on base in every game this year but 1 and seems to have a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate. What’s his ceiling ROS? Thanks!

9:49	Paul Swydan: See my earlier comment about how no one cares about the Marlins. I think he’s over his head right now. The BABIP will come down some. If he maintains the K% and BB% though, he could remain a dangerous hitter, and be a legit three-win guy.

9:49	Comment From Meano Eno Chris Capuano has been very good. Discuss.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I couldn’t believe he was a free agent for as long as he was.

9:50	Comment From RoyalMan Do you see a breakout from Heyward or more of the same? In a vaccuum, is Encarnacion a better fantasy option?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Encarnacion is certainly a better option, but that is no knock on Heyward, who I remain high on.

9:50	Comment From Gern Cranium No way would I send a ton to get Lee with that 2016 buyout especially if it would take Pederson and a few others.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Disagree. Sorry. Colletti once traded Carlos Santana for three months of Casey Blake. And the Dodgers were nowhere as close to a championship then as they are now.

9:51	Comment From Corey Masahiro Tanaka or Sonny Gray

9:51	Paul Swydan: Tanaka, though that is no knock on Gray.

9:51	Comment From Mike Which prospect currently in the minors, no matter how far away, are you most excited to see in the majors?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’m getting pretty excited about Henry Owens. Jon Gray is another. And then I’m excited for the new wave of shortstops – Correa, Baez, Russell, etc.

9:52	Comment From Bazooka Joe Why would Mattingly ever sit a seemingly easily distracted guy like Puig? Remember how Phil Jackson used to manage Dennis Rodman? Think Puig settles in and starts to rake?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t think we know anything about Puig’s level of focus, first of all. Second of all, Mattingly has an impossible job balancing those four players, and Colletti should do him a favor already and trade one of them. Third, yes, I do think Puig will settle in eventually.

9:53	Comment From F. YOU DOUCHE keep saying nobody cares about the Marlins. You sound like an idiot totally ignoring the talent that is evident. Fernandez was absolutely filthy tonight as usual.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Thanks for stopping by. Door is on the left.

9:53	Comment From Guest At what point do you think the closer situation in Oakland is situated and does Johnson get his job back, if at all?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it needs to be situated. I think that is one of the advantages of assembling a group of veteran, decently paid relievers. They have a group where you could conceivably just say to them, “Just show up and be ready to pitch.”

9:54	Comment From Meano Eno Jason Heyward – Red Sox right fielder?

9:55	Paul Swydan: It’d be interesting. I don’t see the Sox trading enough to get him, nor do I see the Braves being far enough out of it to justify a trade. But perhaps when Heyward hits free agency…

9:55	Comment From john If you are the mets, who are you giving up for didi? Who for Franklin?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m not giving up much for either. Neither is a huge upgrade over what they currently have, as boring/frustrating as they may be.

9:56	Comment From Meano Eno I meant free agency by the way

9:56	Paul Swydan: Fair enough. Yeah, I could definitely see that.

9:56	Comment From GMitch What if it was Trey Ball instead of Webster?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Potato-poe-tat-o. Ball is a better prospect but further from the majors. And the Marlins have every right to demand four in the majors/close to the majors players for Stanton. Maybe even five.

9:57	Comment From Esteban Kinda have to ride Braun for the rest of the season no? Can’t see getting value, though I remain nervous about the thumb.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah. If you can get value, I’d take it and run, but I find that to be a difficult proposition and you just have to ride it out.

9:58	Comment From john Re mets – so you are one of the few who thinks Tejada is serviceable? They clearly need bats. What would you do with no farm position players on the way?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I would wait until June and then sign Drew. But in the meantime, stick with what you got.

9:58	Comment From ST3 The two most common errors I make when typing in the Yahoo fantasy URL too fast: baseblab and fantasy sprots. Just throwing that out there.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Interesting.

9:58	Comment From Rufus T. Firefly I can’t quit crying. Danny, Danny, Danny….

9:59	Paul Swydan: Can’t you see, sometimes your homers allowed hypnotize me. And I just hate your gopher ways, but Danny I hope you’re here to stay.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Sorry, I’ll stop now.

9:59	Comment From Paul Where would Dylan Bundy be right now if he never had elbow issues?

9:59	Paul Swydan: In the middle/front of the O’s rotation.

9:59	Comment From Hideki Irabu Should I accept Alexis Ramirez (him) vs Glenn Perkins and JJ Hardy (me)? Thanks.