FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 4/23/13

6:20	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to answer all of your baseballing queries. In the meantime, drop in some questions for us, and we’ll try to get to all of them! See you soon!

6:30	Chris Cwik: I won’t be able to make the chat tonight, ladies and gents. Have fun without me. Be back next week.

9:00	Paul Swydan: Alright, let’s light this candle!

9:00	Comment From F U Jobu Does Alex Meyer have a shot at a rotation spot this year?

9:00	Paul Swydan: I would say yes.

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, why not.

9:01	Comment From Edge O How long is Chris Perez the closer in Cle?

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: All season. He seems to have a long leash.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I’ll say at least until the end of the season, unless he gets hurt.

9:02	Comment From Edge O Who loses ABs with Born’s return? Giambi goes back to the bench, but Stubbs the big loser?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Giambi is going to lose more at-bats than Stubbs, certainly.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Giambi first. The Indians need to know what they have in Stubbs.

9:03	Comment From asdfasdf Do you think Cashner will get a spot in the rotation, and if so, will he be any good? Thanks!

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’m pretty sure I saw Eno Sarris today say that he IS getting a shot, and I expect him to do well. Certainly at least well enough to be a decent option in mixed leagues.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he should be fine. I don’t follow him enough to know the quality of his off speed stuff

9:05	Comment From Guest If any of you play Ottoneu, how may prospects would you stash at a time?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I keep only as many as I need to trade away in deals. I don’t find prospects to be useful for much else in Ottoneu.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: very few if any.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Going to my first Red Sox game of the year tomorrow, need to know which t-shirt to buy the boy!

9:07	Comment From Guest Do you guys like Wily Peralta?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I only take AAA guys. I have maybe 2.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’m a fan, but I wasn’t a big enough fan to draft him in any leagues this season. Although it should be noted that 3 of my 4 leagues drafted before he was officially named a starter.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I did over the off season.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Jeff is apparently having connection issues you guys, FYI that’s why his answers may come in a little slowly.

9:09	Comment From Simon My Pedroira/Markakis for her Craig/Prado in 5×5 H2H with daily lineup changes. I know he wins on stats, but I pick up some great position flexibility for daily lineup changes. Thoughts?

9:10	Paul Swydan: If you have the better players, you shouldn’t need to make as many lineup changes. I’d stick with what you have.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t mind the trade, Prado has been a savior in a couple of my leagues.

9:11	Comment From Cal Guy So how much longer is Porcello blocking Smyly from entering the rotation?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’ll say that Porcello gets the benefit of the doubt for two more starts, and then it’ll be touch and go time.

9:12	Comment From Cal Guy Better pick up for this season, Villanueva or Quintana?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Villanueva, without question.

9:12	Comment From Cal Guy Better injured pitcher to stash for this year and the future, Lewis or Luebke?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Luebke.

9:13	Comment From Preston What are the chances the Vernon Wells resurgence continues? Over under .265/.330/.450 ROS?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I will say under to be conservative, but I think that he has a chance at hitting those numbers, especially if he is matched up more judiciously once Granderson returns.

9:13	Comment From chaz Thinking about stashing Colby Lewis and Beachy think they both contribute when back?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I think they both will, but I am less confident in Lewis than I am Luebke or Beachy.

9:14	Comment From Gila Monster Who is better RoS in a OPS league, Adam Jones or Cespedes?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I think Cespedes probaably has the better OPS, but it will be close, and Jones is more likely to be healthy throughout the season, so I probably would go with Jones.

9:15	Comment From Izzy Assuming Harvey/Niese/Marcum/Gee, who should be the Mets 5th starter right now? Wheeler, Hefner, McHugh, or Montero?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Hefner until at least June, and then see if Wheeler is ready. At the very least, Wheeler’s blister situation needs to be resolved.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Jeff will be back soon, btw. He had to restart.

9:16	Comment From Preston Can you ever remember a more accomplished group of players on the DL at the same time as Jeter, A-Rod, Teixeira and Granderson? Would you guess they combine to produce over/under 5 WAR this year?

9:17	Paul Swydan: It’s a good group, that’s for certain. But yes, teams get killed by injuries every year. The problem with the Yankees is that they didn’t have enough depth in their minor league system. I will say over on 5 WAR. Figure 2 from Tex, 2 from Granderson conservatively, and 1 from Jeter.

9:17	Comment From Preston Traded Matt Moore and Mike Napoli for Matt Wieters and Jason Heyward two days ago. Even with the appendicitis I came out ahead, right?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I think so, but it’s not a slam dunk. Moore has been good, and Napoli seems just fine.

9:18	Comment From Jaack The internet tells me that the three major league cities with the most rainy days a year are Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Seattle. How perfectly depressing is that?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Quite. It’s quite depressing.

9:19	Comment From Joe While early… Will Middlebrooks has struck out over 30% of the time this year. Is it safe to say contact (and lack of walks) is still a concern and that his hot start last year may have masked this a bit (he cooled off quite a bit last year too)

9:20

Paul Swydan: I noted on Twitter last night that Middlebrooks is still seeing the same number of pitches this year as he did last year, 3.88 to 3.89 (as of last night). So, I’m not ready to call this anything other than a slump at the moment. Now, if he is still whiffing this much two-three weeks from now, it might be a different story, but I’m going to remain patient until then.

9:21	Comment From BobbyV What pitching statistic do you find most useful from a predictive perspective, when it comes to SP future success?

9:21	Paul Swydan: K%, or K% – BB%. Don’t use K/9 or BB/9, use the percentages.

9:21	Comment From Mike Bundy already had an MRI three weeks ago. This can’t be TJ right? RIGHT?

9:22	Paul Swydan: It absolutely could. He’s shuffling off to Birmingham. TJ has to be on the table, sad to say.

9:22	Comment From Guest OMGZZZZ BUNDYYYY NOOOOOOOZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!

9:22	Paul Swydan: Also that.

9:22	Comment From Seymore Pelicanus I have a chance to trade for G. Stanton, at a low cost, in an NL keeper league. Given the trade possibilities (if he goes to the AL I get nothing going forward), is he worth a Fowler, a Duda, or even a Jay Bruce?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. Especially Duda.

9:23	Comment From BJ MLBTR is reporting that Valverde will serve as the closer for the Tigers, but it appears to be unsubstantiated. Do you have any sources that are confirming or denying this?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I don’t have any sources period, since I’m not a reporter, but just your friendly neighborhood bull**** slinger. However, MLBTR has broken stories here and there before, so I’d be inclined to trust them.

9:24	Comment From Austin Shelby Miller has been dealing, is it time to sell high in fantasy leagues? What do you project his season totals to be?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Maybe sell high in a redraft league. If it’s a keeper league, I’d be holding on to Miller for dear life.

9:25	Comment From Phil MacCrackin Quentin back and hitting 4th in that SD lineup. Add if available?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Yes, but keep in mind that he gets injured a lot too, so don’t rely on him to be your lineup’s savior.

9:26	Comment From Russ Tell me the Orioles are a good team and that’s why Dickey is struggling and ruining my fantasy evening.

9:26	Paul Swydan: The Orioles are a good teams and that’s why Dickey is struggling and ruining my fantasy evening.

9:27	Paul Swydan: It’s definitely not because Dickey doesn’t get to strike out the pitcher anymore, and it’s definitely definitely not because it’s cold out and he’s an old man that may or may not have a back problem. Definitely not those things at all.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all

9:27	Paul Swydan: There he is!

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe

9:27	Comment From low country Joe What happened to Haren? Velocity is there; can pitch selection, as he suggested, really be the issue?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Speaking of back injuries…. It’s a back injury. Dan Haren is a broken. There’s a reason why he only got a one-year deal.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Next year, Dan Haren will be lucky to get a major league contract. And if he does, it certainly will not be for $14 million.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Who Paul said, haren is a walking injury

9:29	Comment From Guest Cingrani, am I right?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I’m guessing you’re not right, but enjoy the ride while it lasts.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t know, what is the question?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Keep in mind, his first two opponents were the Marlins and Cubs. Also keep in mind that Cincy knew those would be his first two opponents when they decided to promote him.

9:30	Paul Swydan: He was very good tonight, Jeff. 7 innings, 2 runs, 9 Ks.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I am in too many AL only leagues, I don’t watch the NL much

9:31	Comment From Guest Chris is soft. If he was on the Diamondbacks he would get traded for someone grittier

9:31	Paul Swydan: This is the truest fact ever stated. You’re soft, Cwik!

9:31	Comment From Mike Would you rather be forced to eat Little Caesar’s Pizza while watching baseball or have as much of a food of your choice while be forced to watch a pre-season WNBA game.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Pizza and baseball. Not even a question.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take the WNBA, I love me some good Sushi and there is none in the middle of KS

9:33	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:33	Comment From Gila Monster Jeff, I asked today about Shelby Miller’s game last night. How can pitching pitcher throw 87 Fastballs and 11 Curveballs, while being successful? Some guys saw 8-9 fastballs in a row, isn’t that just begging to be a problem?

9:33	Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: It is going to rough to make it without other caught on, Ogando is struggling with it.

9:34	Comment From Archer Villanueva vs. EJax RoS in a 5×5 H2H, who ya got?

9:34	Paul Swydan: As someone who has both on one team, I say Villanueva.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: EJax, not a fan of Vill at all.

9:34	Comment From Galileo If you were a fading star, would you rather be like CJ Wilson or Ian Kennedy?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Well CJ Wilson seems like a dick and Ian Kennedy seems like a nice guy, so in that sense, Kennedy. But Wilson is a lefty, so in that sense, I’d rather be him, since he’ll probably get more chances to survive.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Ian Kennedy, he is still decent compared to Wilson

9:35	Comment From jesse I ended up with Beltran/holliday/Freese and Carpenter(as my bench fill-in); it should make a diffence that 4 of my players are from the same team should it?

9:36	Paul Swydan: In theory it shouldn’t, unless you play in a head-to-head league. But even if it’s a daily rotisserie league, there are going to be games where you’ll want to bench some or all of them depending on the matchup, so I try not to end up with that many hitters on the same team.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: It doesn’t bother one bit, I see some teams getting no respect.

9:37	Comment From Guest Why does Marmol pitch in the major leagues?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Cubs fans need to be reminded to drink?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: He is awesome in my GR!T league, great source of HBP

9:38	Paul Swydan: It literally took Marmol two pitches to blow the save. I’m not even mad, I’m just impressed.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Side note — I’m actually furious. Kershaw not getting me a win meant I needed one from Villanueva.

9:38	Comment From Archer By the way, anyone who enjoys bad baseball should be watching this Braves vs. Rockies game. Simmons picked off at 2nd with 2 outs and the pitcher up and Juan Francisco attempted to bunt for a hit to leadoff the inning.

9:39	Paul Swydan: They shouldn’t be playing in that weather. I don’t care that it’s not raining or snowing. You can’t play baseball in 20-degree weather.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree on the temp, crazy ass weather right now.

9:40	Comment From Chavez Latrine Who takes the 5th spot in the Dodger rotation once Fife proves incompetent?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I think Fife gets three starts, and then the Zach Lee watch will be on.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Not Billingsley

9:41	Comment From Third Base Coach Moustakas is a beast in the field but his bat is flat, allready rostering Longo and Freese, time to drop the big fella?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Well, if you have Longo you certainly don’t need 2 other third basemen, but I wouldn’t just drop Moustakas. I would try to sell another team on the power potential.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, he is a mess right. 66% FB rate and can’t hit HRs. Just a pop-up waiting to happen.

9:42	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Brett Lawrie acting like an 8 year old who ate too many sugar sticks is really annoying when he’s hitting .100.

9:43	Paul Swydan: He just crossed the 30 PA threshold. Little too early to get all huffy and puffy about his performance.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice, maybe he needs a nap.

9:43	Comment From Daniel Gerald Laird just stole second.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Yikes.

9:43	Comment From Mike Is BJ Upton bad now?

9:43	Paul Swydan: No. It’s April.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he will always under achieve. He is not a HR hitter, but always tries to hit like one.

9:44	Comment From Guest Speaking of the LAD rotation–Capuano is likely to stay in town given the injury issues, right? His and others’, I mean.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Yeah, maybe there’s a chance he goes closer to the trading deadline if everything comes together for LA, but for right now he isn’t going anywhere.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: He won’t get moved until at least Greinke gets back.

9:45	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Have you guys seen Hannibal? Its like my new favorite show on network.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: No go here.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Nope. Got all I can handle right now. I’m about to be 3 episodes behind on The Americans.

9:46	Comment From dgruss you two seem more snippy than usual, want to talk about it?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Really? I’m in a great mood! Sorry.

9:47	Comment From Rated Rookie Is Cueto’s lat strain an especially worrisome one for a pitcher?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Here’s one for Jeff.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: My internet @$%@$%@ sucks.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Well, OK, we’ll leave that Cueto q for Jeff, and move on for the time being.

9:47	Comment From Jaack Is it just me, or is this Rockies-Braves game making me want a Baseball Winter Classic, just for the blooper reel? Presidents Day Weekend, played at Target Field. It would be awesome.

9:48	Paul Swydan: It would most definitely not be awesome. But you’re thinking, I like that.

9:48	Comment From Brad Sveum going to let Marmol pitch with the bases loaded in a tie game? Sveum must not like his job.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Rapidly losing faith in Sveum. I think the Cubs’ roster is better than he’s managing it to.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Or he is being told to throw Marmol out there for one more last chance.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Well, he also threatened to demote Rizzo and Starlin before quickly recanting when everyone was like “uh, they’re your two best players.”

9:50	Comment From John I’m watching the Americans, too. Enjoying it so far!

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: it is a great show.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yes, very eager to catch up. But I am also eager to get my yard in working order.

9:50	Comment From Mike Do you think the Cubs are actually considering sending Rizzo/Castro down or is it just motivation tactics?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I don’t think either. I think Sveum probably just isn’t the best communicator.

9:51	Comment From Alec So mad! college fire drill meant I missed most of chat

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like it as motivation, it will probably back fire.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Well, we’ll be re-posting it after in a more friendly format so you can re-read it easier.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Also, what Jeff said.

9:52	Comment From Mark In an OBP league I have Ruiz coming back next week. Sal Perez was just dropped, should I use my waiver on him?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I like Perez better than Ruiz, yes.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: yes on Perez, he has been really unlucky. All his line drives seem at people.

9:53	Comment From Tim Where does Fowler finish the season among OFers?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I will say no lower than top 25, and possibly top 15.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: No as long as he lets it heal. If he is fine when he comes back, it should re-appear.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Top 15

9:53	Paul Swydan: Is that the Cueto answer?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: What was that, 10 minutes later.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yeah. That “lets it heal” comment was in response to the Cueto lat injury question.

9:54	Comment From canuck Is Taveras worth a Zunino and Machado package (for fantasy purposes)?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Close, but no. I like serviceable major leaguers.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Oooh, that’s a good one. I’d probably do that deal, just because of the positional scarcity of catcher and (eventually) shortstop. Also, Machado is already in the majors, so we have a little bit better idea of his ceiling.

9:56	Comment From Brad Parra gives up a solo shot to Darwin Barney. DARWIN BARNEY!!!

9:56	Paul Swydan: Posted for the lulz.

9:56	Comment From Rated Rookie Any guesses as to why Dusty didn’t bring Chapman in?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m going to go with “because he’s an idiot.”

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said.

9:57	Comment From Ben Cherrington I’ve got myself a Jackie Bradley Jr, an Alan Webster, a couple nice SS prospects and my boy Lavarnway. What would it take to get me some Stanton?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Don’t see it happening without Bogaerts. And probably need to put Middlebrooks and Webster in the deal too.

9:58	Paul Swydan: But I really don’t think the Marlins are going to deal Stanton.

9:58	Comment From Archer Upton brothers go back-to-back.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but i could see other teams give more.

9:58	Comment From jesse Upton bros, back to back vs Colorado, and chance Arz is feeling some sellers remorse yet?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yeah, absolutely agree with Jeff there. I don’t see the Red Sox offering the 3 or 4-for-1 necessary to get Stanton.

9:59	Paul Swydan: As for JustUp, Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson don’t strike me as the type to feel buyers remorse.