FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 4/30/13

6:09	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Join us live at 9 pm ET for all of the baseballing action that you’ll let us cram down your cramhole! Get your questions in now, and I’ll put up a bunch of polls too, because polls are fun.

9:01	Chris Cwik: My fantasy team had a -3 yesterday. Screw fantasy baseball. Let’s talk actual baseball.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Just finished listening to Katy Feeney tell Buster Olney why the schedule is the way the schedule is on his podcast. I remember meeting with Katy waayyyyy back in 2006, and getting the chance to ask her the same questions. She’s the best. Let’s do this!

9:02	Paul Swydan: 2006? 2005 maybe? Whatever. I’m old.

9:02	Comment From jeff why does cj wilson suck so much?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Well, it’s not because he uses Head & Shoulders, that’s for darn sure!!!

9:02	Chris Cwik: Walks. He’s had issues with walks in the past and they’ve come back.

9:03	Comment From Casey Over the season who do you see getting more saves, Rondon or Rosenthal?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Oooh, good one. I’ll say Rosenthal.

9:03	Chris Cwik: I’m actually starting to buy Mujica….I’ll say Rondon

9:03	Paul Swydan: BTW, Jeff may be with us soon, but he is out watching actual baseball at the moment.

9:03	Comment From Casey Deep league, if you had to pick 1 which would you rather have? Grimm, Lilly, Maurer, Worley or Diamond?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Diamond, then Worley

9:04	Chris Cwik: Hmm…Worley or Grimm, I think.

9:04	Comment From Toucan Time to panic with Gyorko?

9:04	Chris Cwik: Not yet. No.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Nope, not even remotely. He’s hit better the past couple of weeks. Power isn’t there yet, but it will come.

9:05	Comment From asdfasdf What should I do with Cishek? He is the closer, but he keeps allowing so many runs…

9:05	Chris Cwik: I think you hold him. They don’t have anyone else.

9:05	Paul Swydan: If you can trade him, trade him. Otherwise, you’re stuck. Maybe try and pick up an awesome setup guy to balance things out.

9:06

Comment From Braves Fan
Huge fan of yours and always enjoy the chats! Tim Hudson is batting .364, .218 points ahead of BJ Upton’s .146 batting average. Chances that Hudson finishes the season with a better BA than BJ Upton, and whether we can declare the first year (let alone the entire contract) a disappointment already? Or should Timmy just play CF and pitch every 5th day like he did in college?

9:06	Chris Cwik: .02% chance

9:07	Paul Swydan: Hahaha, it’s a LITTLE too early to declare BJ a bust already. Tell you what, if Hudson ends up with the better batting average, you remind me in October and I’ll mail you a free FanGraphs t-shirt!

9:07	Paul Swydan: By the way, I’m pretty disappointed that The Hangover is winning this poll. And you guys give ME crap for liking bad movies?

9:08	Comment From Cal Guy Can you think of 2014 closers who are not closers this season?

9:08	Chris Cwik: Carter Capps?

9:08	Chris Cwik: Ummmm….maybe Trevor Rosenthal

9:08	Paul Swydan: I think Rondon is a candidate. Sergio Santos, Carter Capps, Kenley Jansen, maybe David Hernandez and Vinnie Pestano. Trevor Rosenthal.

9:08	Chris Cwik: Yes on Pestano

9:08	Paul Swydan: Maybe Sean Doolittle or Jake McGee.

9:09	Chris Cwik: McGee could get a chance this year

9:09	Comment From Jaack What is the best dinosaur? Stegosaurus right?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Triceritops

9:10	Chris Cwik: Tough to argue, but I’ve always been partial to Triceratops

9:10	Paul Swydan: I was always a Brontosaurus guy myself. A gentle giant that lives green, but can still throw down if he has to.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Triceratops is second for me though.

9:10	Chris Cwik: Brontosaurus can’t throw down

9:10	Comment From Alan Grant VELOCIRAPTOR!!!

9:10	Paul Swydan: HE COULD IF HE WANTED TO DAMNIT!

9:11	Comment From Just a friend Traded Hanley, Bruce and Rutledge for Stanton, Nathan, Iwakuma right before he went on the DL (5×5 Keeper league). How worried should I be on a scale of 1-10??

9:11	Paul Swydan: OH BABY YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aofoBrFNdg

9:11	Chris Cwik: Well, it looks like Stanton is going to be out for a bit…so…not great in hindsight.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Sorry.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, some good, some bad. Really depends on the needs of your team.

9:12	Comment From Jaack Evidence on behalf of the best dinosaur: http://www.thebestdinosaur.com/

9:12	Comment From Chris M You guys forgot David Robertson as a closer next year.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yeah, sorry. The only silver lining I can give you is that I don’t like Rutledge.

9:12	Chris Cwik: We did.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Oh, ya, duh, the obvious one. Ha.

9:13	Paul Swydan: My god, it’s amazing how thin Biz Markie is in this video.

9:13	Comment From More than a friend Best option at SS going forward Andrelton Simmons or Erick Aybar?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Simmons on the upside. Aybar if you want to play it safe.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Simmons I guess.

9:14	Chris Cwik: Simmons

9:14	Paul Swydan: The correct answer is Pam.

9:14	Chris Cwik: I disagree…

9:14	Paul Swydan: One of my team names this year is Poovey Farms Racing.

9:15	Paul Swydan: She’s the best at office work, she’s the best at sexy times, and she’s the best at being a spy. WHAT MORE COULD YOU WANT?

9:15	Chris Cwik: That’s great

9:15	Comment From jesse i can’t belive you left off Cheryl!

9:15	Chris Cwik: I did…it was way too tough to limit it to 6

9:15	Paul Swydan: Yeah, how did Cyril get on that poll. Unreal Cwik.

9:16	Comment From Cal Guy What are the odds that Machado moves to SS in 2014? Or ever?

9:16	Chris Cwik: I would say high.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: He may go back, it is a nice option for the O’s to go looking for either a SS or 3B when needed.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Well, Hardy is still under contract in ’14, but it’s the last year of his deal, so maybe they move or trade him. I’ll say slightly higher than this year.

9:17	Comment From Circus Entertainer Question Rizzo over under final line .259/36 home runs

9:18	Paul Swydan: Under.

9:18	Paul Swydan: At least on the homers.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Under

9:18	Comment From Tim Ankylosaurus

9:18	Chris Cwik: He seems to have figured out his issue with his swing…over on average…under on HR

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: OK Paul and Chris, change it to 26 HRs

9:18	Comment From Joe Brontasaurus and triceratops aren’t dinosaurs anymore. Triceratops is actually believed now to just be a juvenile torosaurus.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Over under on Rizzo

9:19	Paul Swydan: Joe dropping the knowledge. I guess I need to watch more Dinosaur Train with the little one.

9:19	Chris Cwik: I don’t know what Dinosaur Train is…

9:19	Paul Swydan: I’ll say under on 26 homers too. But only because I hate Cubs fans. 26 seems right on the money.

9:19	Paul Swydan: You will someday, Chris.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: All aboard !!!!

9:20	Comment From jesse man. barry is better than cyril! get it together.

9:21	Chris Cwik: The best character is Kreiger, you jerks.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Both Barry’s are better than Cyril.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Here you go, Chris. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mWOAHRrmKs

9:21	Comment From Puck Which players that have started slow do you think are the best bet to rebound?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Matt Cain

9:22	Chris Cwik: Cain is a good one

9:22	Chris Cwik: Kemp, Bruce

9:22	Chris Cwik: Rickie Weeks

9:22	Paul Swydan: Good one. Jay Bruce isn’t going to slug .375 all year.

9:22	Chris Cwik: Miguel Montero

9:22	Chris Cwik: Dickey

9:23	Paul Swydan: Upton, obviously.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I see Moustakas, Dunn and Dicke continue with their struggles

9:23	Paul Swydan: I like Andrus and VMart still as well.

9:23	Chris Cwik: I’ve been concerned about Halladay all year

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Montero and Upton may still struggle

9:23	Chris Cwik: A little concerned about Hamilton

9:23	Paul Swydan: A lot of concerned about Hamilton.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Actually, I really don’t care about Hamilton.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Gio Gonzalez may continue to struggle.

9:24	Chris Cwik: I’m not doing anything drastic with Hamilton yet.

9:24	Chris Cwik: But do have some worries

9:24	Comment From Archer Is it best to just stick with Hamilton at this point? How low would you sell him in an 5×5 (OBP) 12-team mixed?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Speaking of…

9:24	Chris Cwik: Stick with him. You won’t get much for him if you try and deal him anyway.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Yes, I would stick with him. I don’t believe in selling low at all in the first two months of the season.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Stick with him, even on the bench, no fair value. The only way I would trade him is for another player struggling.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Trade Cain or Hamilton.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: for Hamilton

9:25	Comment From Preston I like how no Yankees can count as the “pleasant” surprise of April, Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner have been pretty surprising.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Wells was on my list, but then I remembered I should include pitchers too and knocked him off. Sorry.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Those are more on the stunned levels and they are Yankees, they don’t really count.

9:26	Chris Cwik: Yeah…those guys have been good

9:27	Comment From Chris M Jose Quintana or Zach McAllister ROS?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I like McAllister a lot.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: McAllister

9:27	Chris Cwik: Quintana…we’ve seen Don Cooper work his magic before. So I tend to trust WS pitchers more than normal.

9:27	Comment From Thundacat Kreiger for the win!!

9:27	Paul Swydan: Also because he’s a White Sox fan.

9:27	Comment From NeedSpeed Who do you like better in an OB% league, Aoki or De Aza?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I like Aoki.

9:28	Chris Cwik: Probably Aoki

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: De Aza, like the steals and counting stats.

9:29	Comment From Eric Would you try to trade Gio for Cain? Who do you have more faith in going forward?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Oooh, that’s a good one.

9:29	Chris Cwik: I probably have more faith in Cain

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Cain my a long way, at least he can throw strikes.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Check out their Zone%’s

9:29	Comment From ozzie can i fetch tulo for one of these pitchers straight up: lee, wainwright, moore, latos?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Maybe Waino or Moore.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with paul

9:30	Chris Cwik: I don’t see the person with Tulo making that deal, though.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Papi unclears the bases with a double. Red Sox take the lead!

9:30	Comment From Grey Ghost Wilin Rosario: Manny Ramirez in a catcher’s mask?

9:31	Chris Cwik: Didn’t Manny have plate discipline?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: My take on Cain and Gio: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-42513/

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: not even close, Manny was much better.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Manny had a career 13.6% BB%. Wilin is at 5.3%. Manny hit .311/.411/.585. Wilin is hitting .273/.313/.542 for his career. Like Jeff said, it’s a ridiculous comparison.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Manny literally has 98 points of OBP on him.

9:32	Comment From Ryan Kevin Youkilis has a “spine sprain.” Is that the most painful-sounding injury you’ve heard of?

9:33	Chris Cwik: I think Adrian Beltre had a twisted testicle once. That’s worse

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: The rupture testicle a couple years ago was worse.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Most painful-sounding non-private-area-related injury, anyway.

9:33	Chris Cwik: yes

9:33	Comment From Ryan Miller, Cingrani or Fernandez RoS?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Miller.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: miller

9:33	Chris Cwik: Miller

9:33	Comment From Rightcoast How would you rank the following SP for the ROS – Brett Anderson, Cashner, Trevor Cahill, Iwakuma?

9:34	Chris Cwik: Cahill, Iwakuma, Anderson Cashner

9:34	Paul Swydan: Cahill, Cashner, Iwakuma, Anderson

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Off will leave you with Paul and Chris for a while. My supper (fries) are done.

9:34	Paul Swydan: DING FRIES ARE DONE!

9:34	Chris Cwik: I like Anderson and Cashner more than Iwakuma, but health is the issue

9:34	Comment From Grey Ghost Josh Johnson will finish the year as a top ___ SP?

9:34	Paul Swydan: 200

9:35	Chris Cwik: 200?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Sure. If he’s hurt, how much higher could I go?

9:35	Chris Cwik: 40

9:36	Paul Swydan: BTW, I want to thank the Indians for hitting 7 homers on the night that Nick Swisher isn’t playing. %!$@^*#(

9:36	Comment From kingstarking Arenado or Headley?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Is that a serious question? HEADLEY.

9:36	Chris Cwik: Headley

9:36	Comment From kingstarking Need to chop my roster down for Hanley — who to drop out of Kipnis, Lowrie, Arenado, Lawrie, Cashner? Weak pitching.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Very tempted to say Kipnis.

9:36	Chris Cwik: Either Lowrie or Arenado

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Arendo

9:37	Paul Swydan: If you’ll recall, I wasn’t all that high on Kipnis entering the season, and his two-hit night has only raised his AVG to .200. Still early, but … http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9079348/jered-weaver-players-fall-2013-mlb

9:38	Paul Swydan: Worried that he’ll never hit lefties.

9:38	Comment From Pertinent How much money would it take for you to retire tomorrow?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I’m guessing it would be in the eight figures…

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: None, I have it now if I didn’t have to take care of the kids. Once they are out, my wife and I will retire.

9:39	Chris Cwik: Enough money to buy up all the seats in a movie theatre and laugh at everyone else who couldn’t get tickets.

9:39	Chris Cwik: Man, I have issues…

9:39	Paul Swydan: Jeff is a man with a plan.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: and you want to buy all the seats in a movie theater.

9:39	Comment From Dean McCann Walking I’m in a pickle; Stanton, Heyward, R Zimmerman – my 2nd, 3rd, 4th round picks in new keeper league, all down – i have 1 DL spot (also have Cueto injured). I know Zim should be back soon, but I’m just looking for any advice for what the heck i should/could do?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Trade?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Sit on your hands, basically. Sorry about that. Sometimes you have to sit there and take your medicine.

9:40	Chris Cwik: ugh…you have to try and keep all of them…i’m guessing you might not have enough roster spots and would have to start no one, though?

9:41	Comment From Casey What games are you guys watching?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I’m watching the Red Sox, and have been flipping to Rays-Royals.

9:42	Chris Cwik: Actually not watching any at the moment. Drinking some beer, though. I think that will help balance out my street cred.

9:42	Comment From Jaack Anyone who voted for Hangover III should have a Hangover every day, but never actually be drunk.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Watching myself eat fries

9:43	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure if that makes sense, but I like it.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Like, with a mirror, Jeff?

9:43	Comment From Guest How important is street cred in today’s fast-paced world?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Are you doing this chat from a NYC diner?

9:43	Chris Cwik: More important than you know

9:44	Comment From ozzie i have mccann returning from the dl soon, should i drop salty or ramos?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: As long I know Carson, i feel I am good.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I say Ramos.

9:44	Chris Cwik: I think I might drop Salty.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Salty

9:44	Paul Swydan: Jeff is on fire tonight.

9:44	Comment From Tom I have a glut of OF in my keeper league, need some W and Ks but am having trouble deciding who to part with (this is a keeper league), so who would you part with: N. Cruz, C. Gomez, or Beltran? (I also have Upton and Kemp)

9:44	Paul Swydan: Cruz.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Cruz and Beltran

9:45	Chris Cwik: You could part with all three. I would say Cruz or Gomez before Beltran…

9:45	Paul Swydan: Maybe Beltran, since it’s a keeper league. But I like Beltran better than Cruz for this year.

9:45	Chris Cwik: Though, he’s probably the oldest.

9:45	Comment From jesse My pitcher in Fangraphs:THEGAME has gotten the award as best picther for the Redsox in weeks 2,3 & 4 now, but am still ranked 3rd on the team.

9:46	Paul Swydan: So what you’re saying is that you sucked really bad in week 1?

9:46	Comment From Pertinent What the hell is up with the Cardinals offense? Taveras time?

9:47	Paul Swydan: It is not yet Taveras time.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Regression time.

9:47	Chris Cwik: They’ll be ok. Just give them more time.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Also, once you remove pitchers, the Cards have the 15th ranked offense by wRC+. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d Hardly a travesty.

9:48	Comment From Thundacat how do you feel about Ryu ROS? mid 3’s ERA or 4’s?

9:48	Chris Cwik: I think 4s. I don’t love him.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Probably low 4’s to be conservative, but I could certainly see mid-to-high 3’s.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Not threes at all

9:49	Comment From Matt Jeff, When you say Dunn and “struggle”, Do you just mean the typical Dunn sub .240 AVG, average OBP, and a ton of power? He looks the same as always

9:49	Paul Swydan: One for Jeff. Obviously.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see the Power coming back.

9:50	Comment From Steve How many meltdowns does Bailey get before it’s Hammertime in Boston again?

9:50	Chris Cwik: 4?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul question (sorry guys, wife is trying to talk to me)

9:50	Paul Swydan: Depends on how spread out they are. I’ll say if he has three meltdowns in any 10 day period, the warning lights will be flashing.

9:51	Comment From Thundacat What are your feelings on Melky going forward?

9:51	Chris Cwik: More last season with the Royals than 2012 Giants.

9:51	Paul Swydan: That’ll he improve. His wOBA now is like from his bad old Yankees days. He didn’t regress that much.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Great, he will do awesome (owner of Melky in about every league I am in)

9:51	Comment From Pertinent I have Wainwright and Darvish. If healthy, do I have a greater than 10% chance of having both Cy Young winners?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, if they stay healthy

9:52	Paul Swydan: I would be surprised if Wainwright won the NL Cy Young. He’s no Clayton Kershaw.

9:52	Chris Cwik: I’ll put it at exactly 10%. You have great pitchers on good teams.

9:52	Comment From so so sad 5 straight jays games where they blew the lead. i’m one distressed fan. i mean almost all hope lost so early!

9:53	Paul Swydan: At least the Leafs are making the playoffs?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: you lasted longer than Astro and Marlin fans.

9:53	Paul Swydan: (Checking to see if that’s actually true)

9:53	Comment From so so sad Chicken wing!

9:53	Chris Cwik: Not sure what this is in reference to…but yes

9:53	Paul Swydan: It is true. There you go.

9:53	Comment From Milwaukee BeerJays why is edwin jackson so bad this year?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Wrong, chicken wings

9:54	Chris Cwik: ERA much higher than his FIP

9:54	Paul Swydan: Mainly because he’s giving up a lot of runs.

9:54	Chris Cwik: So…don’t worry too much

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: He is good every other year right?

9:54	Comment From so so sad Encarnacion flashes a chicken wing during his home run trot.

9:54	Chris Cwik: EE is on fire right now.

9:55	Paul Swydan: EJax should rebound, but gotta keep the Padres at bay. So frustrating.

9:56	Paul Swydan: EJax’s walk rate has also spiked in the early going, even though his Zone% is up over last year. Seems fluky.

9:56	Comment From Storm Sutherland I’m not trying to be ding dong, but give me a compelling argument to purchase ESPN insider. I just don’t see the sense in paying for sports writing when I am flooded with free info.

9:57	Chris Cwik: i would buy it just for Keith Law and the extra FG content

9:57	Chris Cwik: including stuff that Paul does

9:57	Paul Swydan: You’re going to spend that money on stupid stuff anyway like buying coffee. Get ESPN the Mag, and Insider comes free. It’s like $15 a year. Total no brainer, especially for Keith and Kiper’s stuff.

9:58	Comment From Guest Fangrahps on Monday was awesome. Baseball was fun Monday/Tuesday A.M. too. I love it when the season gets going.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: With every ESPN the mag subscription is an Insider account. Goto your local library and see if they have ESPN the mag and you will get insider.

9:58	Paul Swydan: We love baseball here at Fangrahps!!!

9:58	Comment From Rich Please evaluate trade: I give Moore and Arenado and get Price.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: and beer

9:59	Paul Swydan: That’s tough. If it’s a keeper league, I keep your side. If it’s a one-year league, I’m taking Price.

9:59	Chris Cwik: I think you have to be happy with Price right now.

9:59	Comment From Mike If you guys aren’t watching the Cards/Reds, you just missed the ugliest rundown I’ve ever seen.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Good trade, keeper league, maybe not. One year, yes.

9:59	Comment From jesse “we love baseball here at Fangrahps!!!”; i feel like that may be based on some selection bias

9:59	Comment From weas you can get ESPN the mag for like $5/year

9:59	Comment From Jaack ESPN Insider also has 90% less Tebow.

9:59	Comment From Mitch I pay for Fangraphs Plus and it is awesome–just saying, sometimes paying for good info is worth it.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Mike, you need to go watch more little league games.