FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/4/17

by Paul Swydan

April 4, 2017

2:08

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best matchup?

NYY (Sabathia) vs. TB (Odorizzi) (2.6% | 6 votes)

COL (Anderson) vs. MIL (Davies) (1.3% | 3 votes)

CLE (Carrasco) vs. TEX (Perez) (5.3% | 12 votes)

SEA (Iwakuma) vs. HOU (McCullers) (13.4% | 30 votes)

CHC (Arrieta) vs. STL (Wainwright) (47.0% | 105 votes)

SF (Cueto) vs. ARI (Corbin) (7.6% | 17 votes)

LAA (Shoemaker) vs. OAK (Manaea) (18.8% | 42 votes)

SD (Richard) vs. LAD (Maeda) (3.5% | 8 votes)

Total Votes: 223

2:12

Paul Swydan:

Which player who hit 2 homers on Opening Day are you most bullish about this season?

Khris Davis (20.9% | 48 votes)

Rougned Odor (27.9% | 64 votes)

Yasmani Grandal (34.9% | 80 votes)

I am bullish on all three! (7.8% | 18 votes)

I am bearish on all three. (4.3% | 10 votes)

I can’t decide! (3.9% | 9 votes)

Total Votes: 229

2:16

Paul Swydan:

Which “Archer” character would you most want to spend time with?

Malory Archer (2.3% | 5 votes)

Sterling Archer (14.5% | 31 votes)

Cyril Figgis (1.4% | 3 votes)

Ray Gillette (2.8% | 6 votes)

Lana Kane (9.8% | 21 votes)

Dr. Krieger (7.5% | 16 votes)

Pam Poovey (7.0% | 15 votes)

Cheryl Tunt (18.3% | 39 votes)

One of the other characters (say in comments) (2.3% | 5 votes)

I don’t know; I don’t watch good TV shows. (33.8% | 72 votes)

Total Votes: 213

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	B: Need to fill last two spots on my rotation, who do you pick from the following? Can play now, or hold and see (deep bench): Musgrove, Bundy, Norris, Cotton, Gsellman

9:01	Paul Swydan: Off the top of my head, Cotton and Gsellman.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:02	Tim: Asked previously and ignored. Do you take the over or under on Kershaws K:BB ratio from last year?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Under, he had a good season.

9:02	Paul Swydan: It was 15.64, for those who don’t know. I’ll take the under.

9:03	Brandon: lana, LANA, LAAAANA danger zone

9:03	Paul Swydan: I love the way they ended that running joke by Lana not knowing who Kenny Loggins is.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Who?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Oh Jeff.

9:04

Los: Random question that I have been thinking a lot about for some reason. Let’s say you have a perfectly average starter that we named Tim Wakefield. Mr. Wakefield is guaranteed to have the same career as his predecessor and comes with the bonus of being signed to a contract at the league minimum for 20 years. How much trade value would this hypothetical player/contract have?

9:04	Paul Swydan: A lot.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: 20 years and guaranteed innings. Tons

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, I am watching the Sea-Hou game. I love matching McCullers

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’ve got 4 games going – all but CHC-STL.

9:07	Barry from Boston: What’s the deal with Price? Always yapping on Twitter, making excuses and giving criptic remarks about his injury. Is he a $200M bust?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I can do the four games

9:07	Paul Swydan: I assume Barry from Boston is just trolling us, but I wanted to post the question for fun.

9:08	MattyMo: Sell high on Ruggy Odor? His plate discipline makes me timid…

9:08	Paul Swydan: I would!

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Adam Jones clone.

9:10	MattyMo: Jon Gray is not going to be a Pineda/Robbie Ray type, right?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I don’t think in reality he will, but he pitches at Coors Field, so it may look like that on his stat line.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Yesterday he was absolutely CRUISING through four, and then he hit a bad patch in the 5th. That will happen every now and again.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: No, multiple pitches, sucks that he lost the curve’s effectiveness in Coors

9:11	MattyMo: Lance McCullers strikes out how many tonight?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I haven’t seen his total, so I’ll blindly say 8.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Ooh, he already has 5.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Looks like I’ll be off!

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Just a couple more, 7.

9:13	Dahl Makhani: Most disappointing thing to see in this young season: Joc getting benched against Clayton Richard. If he’s not facing Richard, he’s not facing many lefties

9:14	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that is disappointing. I don’t know that it definitively means he won’t face many lefties though, the Dodgers have plenty of OF depth. Though I’ll agree it doesn’t bode well.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Truth. But I am not a huge Joc fan.

9:14	MattyMo: ROS Hanley or Hosmer? (I just wanted to say rest of season after only 1 game?)

9:14	Paul Swydan: hahaha, glad we can bring that back!

9:14	Paul Swydan: (also hanley)

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Hanley

9:15	Bones: Guys, please help me from making another bad trade. Should I move Machado, Holliday and Addison Reed For Cespedes and Trumbo. 11-team, 26-player, 5×5 rpto league.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: no, No, NO

9:15	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t. Machado is the best player in that deal by quite a bit, and Holliday should be about 85% of Trumbo.

9:15	MattyMo: If you could have Kerry Wood’s career or Bronson Arroyo’s?

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: McCullers getting BABIP’ed to death right now.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Wood’s

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take a few peak seasons

9:16

Paul Swydan: Man that’s a tough one. On the one hand, Wood had the far more memorable and better career. But Arroyo had a recognizable career, and he won a World Series in the absolute best way possible, and he does have some weird marketability to him thanks to his music. I’ll still say Wood, but it’s close.

9:17	MattyMo: I wish you guys did a podcast. Have you ever thought about it? You have a good ying yang duo combo team thing going on.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Oh god no, can you imagine, Jeff? You guys would get so sick of us bitching about our kids, you’d all tune out 10 minutes in. If that.

9:17	Paul Swydan: But I appreciate the compliment.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: We’d have to cut off the first 10 minutes everynight

9:18	Paul Swydan: Every night.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Every month better

9:18	Nick: Any reason to worry about Darvish?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I mean, I’m sure we’ll all worry about him the rest of his career, now that he’s a TJ survivor. But based on his start last night? No.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Besides that he’s old, throws hard and recently had TJS? No.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Huh. He’s already 30.

9:19	Keith: In this day and age,is it bad to put too much stock into analyzing and questioning lineups? I’ve got serious problems with Franklin Gutierrez hitti g

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: I believe way too energy is wasted looking at lineups. It just doesn’t really matter

9:20

Paul Swydan: I don’t even need to know how this question ends. My philosophy on it is this – the ACTUAL decisions of lineups don’t matter to the ACTUAL lineup, but if your manager can’t get them right, it’s a symptom of a worse decision he’s going to make at a more critical time, and that is certainly concerning.

9:20	Keith: Hitting cleanup for the Dodgers tonight. Sorry-accidentally hit send early. Damn phone.

9:21	Paul Swydan: There’s the rest of it, in case you were curious.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I can now sleep tonight

9:22	Andrew: How differently do you handle the WW in leagues where there are no trades? FA for available players, 2-day waivers for those recently dropped.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Why would you play in a league without trades?

9:22	Paul Swydan: But I guess, to answer the question, I’d be a lot more aggressive on the wire if it was my only means of talent acquisition.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: It should be FAAB, $0 bids with victory

9:23

Erik: I just did my first fantasy draft over the weekend and I’m now after the fact wondering about strategy. (Probably should have done that first.) My teams looks ready to dominate every pitching category and lose every hitting category. Is that better or worse than being middle of the pack in every category?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I would say it’s an OK strategy if the situation was the other way around – that you were going to dominate hitting and suck at picthing – because pitching is so fickle. It’s much harder to predict who the good and/or healthy pitchers will be.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I aim to be third in every category. Should be enough to win. If you aim for the middle, you will end up in the middle

9:24	#coppyandthewhosaysno: Hey guys. Do you think the no call on the Fowler slide last night signals that replay officials are going to be letting that go until someone breaks a leg again, or did they just miss it?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I didn’t see it, but I’m inclined to not read too much into one play or game.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Missed it also.

9:25	Commenter Is Carrasco a bit overrated? Seems like he always struggles in tougher matchups.

9:25	Paul Swydan: I believe he is overrated in the sense that he never finishes a full season, and I am reticent to pay full market/draft round price for such pitchers.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: My only issue with him is durability.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Every pitcher will struggle against better lineups.

9:26	Paul Swydan: But I will draft him – I got him 20-25 spots lower than his general ADP in a league the other night, and was pleased.

9:26	Commenter Votto over/under .600 obp

9:26	Paul Swydan: Haha, under.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: under

9:27	j: You think the Mariners up their offer for Alex Wood now that Smyly is on DL and their lack of options behind him? With the potential fast risers and Julio waiting in the wings I feel like nows a perfect time to get something for him instead of wasting his value in the pen.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Upping the offer is not something Jerry Dipoto generally does. He generally just tries to pick off whomever he can for as little as possible.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Pitchers will break, keep him for now.

9:27	PeterO: For all the uproar about the intentional walk rule, seeing it happen in a game, no one can possibly care about it now right>

9:28	Paul Swydan: No it still annoys me. I liked the possibility of the pitcher and catcher screwing it up.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve seen it at so many other levels, it is a non-factor

9:28	Nick: Pts league dynasty. Sold my Carrasco, Belt, and Robbie Ray for Miguel Cabrera and Matz. Did I do well?

9:29	Paul Swydan: As long as Matz is healthy, I think you came out of the deal well, yes. But if not….you’d have to hope Robbie Ray never gets to where we think he might.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Segura swinging at a pitch that bounces in front of the plate.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: McCullers is rolling

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Remove Matz and I would have still done the move

9:29	Matt: Longo Hall of fame chances O/U 30%?

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Lower, I don’t think he is there but as it stands, I might get a vote once he is elligible.

9:30

Paul Swydan: I’ll say under 30%. The bar has historically been high for 3B. Beltre is at 80 WAR and there are some people who still don’t think he’s a slam dunk. Longoria should be at 50 WAR by the end of this season, but that last 20-30 WAR will be a lot tougher for him, and he’s already in his age-31 campaign.

9:31

Paul Swydan: His best chance of getting there is to stay with Tampa for the rest of his career. If he is a one-team guy, for a team that has very few stars, he’ll get a bump for that, the same way Helton will. But I don’t think it will help Helton enough to get him in, and I don’t think it will help Longoria enough either.

9:32	Andrew: Which player isn’t in your portfolio at all this year who you can’t believe you missed out on? 6 leagues and I didn’t get any Benintendi. 2-hole in Boston, that one could sting

9:32	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t say that I missed on him, since he goes early/is expensive, but I’ve never had Machado before. I would like to have him on my team one of these years.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Lots of players. Only 3 leagues, one AL-only and one is 20-team, 40 player bench. My Tout Wars team is my only redraft and it is full of 40-year-olds

9:34	Erik: I ended up super pitching heavy because the FanGraphs auction calculator thought a whole lot of pitchers were bargains, while most batters were overpriced. But that doesn’t mesh with the advice you just gave. What am I missing?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Well, most hitters are overpriced because they are more bankable. So that makes sense. But like Jeff said, it’s better to aim to be good in every category.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Your hitting pitching mix was set incorrectly. Owners need to track it as it can change from auction to auction.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Oh, that’s a good point. You do need to pay special attention to the calculator variables.

9:36	MANKEY!: Hey! Shout out the Greater O’Hare Baseball League! We’re entering our 34th season of Roto with three original teams still participating! Go Dills!!

9:36	Paul Swydan: Wow, that’s awesome. Congrats!

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Holy cow, good times.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I had a league go for 13-14 years before it dissolved.

9:37

Matt: Im watching the tampa game today and I thought of something. Is Matt holliday a “scary” hitter to you? as an opposing fan I really dont want him up at the plate. If he is, I think hes the “worst” scary hitter in the game. Im not counting the Carters and Trumbos here, just all around great hitters.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Holliday still has some fight left in him, as long as he’s healthy. He hasn’t been healthy much the past two seasons.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Holliday is not scary now.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Here’s what I wrote about Holliday in Sept. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/matt-hollidays-absence-not-inconsequent…

9:39	Lord above: barry

9:39	Lord above: BARRYYYY

9:39	Paul Swydan: I can’t wait for this season’s Barry episode. You know it’s coming!

9:39	Weezy: Fantasy question: Jeff and Brad are motivating me to buy in on Graveman. I picked him up in one of my leagues. Where do you stand with him? Do you prefer him over Musgrove/Folty/Snell?

9:40	Paul Swydan: If he can keep the Ks up, sure, I’m in. I’d love to have him on my team if he’s good, because then I could change my team name to From the Cradle to the Graveman.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the other three more. I watched Graveman today and think he has issues. No dominating 2nd pitch. With the velo increase, his GB% is down.

9:41	Murdoc: I would most want to spend time with Woodhouse, assuming he could be my butler. Being around Sterling would most likely end in either being shot, serious injury, or death.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m surprised Sterling is getting so many votes. I didn’t put Woodhouse because obviously we all want a butler.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Also, Woodhouse wasn’t even in Season 7, so maybe he’s not on the show anymore.

9:43	Matt: Incoming mention of Bum’s 2 homers not being part of the poll in 3…2…1…

9:43	Paul Swydan: Well, but everyone is always bullish on Bumgarner, so that would have skewed the results/is a boring poll.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, what is there more to like

9:44	CarrotJuice: Jeff, just wanted to thank you for all the work you did with velocity today on Twitter!

9:44	Paul Swydan: Jeff is great, isn’t he?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I think we are getting closer to an answer, seems like guns will be 0.7 mph higher this season than last

9:45	Andrew: Who is going to be the McCutchen or Bautista of this year? A guy taken in the first 15 picks who goes bust. Can predict injury (Bautista was no spring chicken in drafts last year) or poor performance.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I don’t see anyone in the top 15 who really screams out to me, but if I can go top 25, I’ll say Votto. https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Trea Turner IMO but he had a great game yesterday

9:45	Paul Swydan: Maybe Encarnacion.

9:46	Hannah Hochevar: Re: IBB rule: Could a pitcher CHOOSE to intentionally walk someone w/ 4 pitches? Not sure why he would (Pitch outs? Surprise?), but there couldn’t be a penalty, right?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yes, what?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yes there is a penalty or no there isn’t?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Could a pitcher CHOOSE to intentionally walk someone w/ 4 pitches? Yes

9:47	Paul Swydan: Oh. Ya.

9:47	Paul Swydan: I also have not heard what happens if a pitcher throws 2 in the dirt to try to get the hitter to chase, and then decides to intentionally walk a hitter, as has happened in the past.

9:48	Jim Lonborg: Are the Xris Davises the best pair of players with the same name playing at the same time ever? The only others I can think of are the Alex Gonzalezes and the Bobby Joneses, but I’m sure there are more. Remember when both Bobby Joneses were on the Mets?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I do remember when both Bobby Jones’ were on the Mets. As for the question, that’s tough, I’m not sure. Obviously the Ken Griffey’s come to mind, though they weren’t as good as the Davis’ are right now when they played together.

9:49	Paul Swydan: My guess is it would take a long time to parse this out, because you’d have to go through a list of basically every last name that appears multiple times in the database, and that would be thousands of names.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t think of anyone right now.

9:50	Paul Swydan: But certainly, off the top of my head, I can’t remember any pair better than the Davis’.

9:50	kevinthecomic: How ’bout all the Mike Stanton’s who have played, including the pitcher from the 90s and the now Giancarlo?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Well, but they didn’t play at the same time, I don’t think.

9:51	juan pierre’s mustache: was there just a loud cat meow at the end of the last inning in HOU-SEA or am i going crazy

9:51	Paul Swydan: Can’t it be both?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I heard that also. I thought it was my cat

9:52	Jaypo : If a team had a league average 1-4 but a black hole in the fifth starter spot… Would it make sense to put him as their 1 and move everyone down? It would be essentially punting one start of the 5 but that team would have the better starter in 4 of 5 games

9:52	Paul Swydan: Whether it would make sense would likely be immaterial, because your 1-4 would probably mutiny if you presented them with that strategy.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: This doesn’t matter after a week or two. I would want my top guys throwing as much as possible.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Also, rotations don’t always line up perfectly thanks to off-days, injuries and just general strategery.

9:53	Josh: You guys aboard the Graveman hype train? A must add in 12 team mixed leagues?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Two Infield hits vs McCullers.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I don’t think he’s a must add by any stretch, no.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not, I will write about him tomorrow

9:54	Cam: Wow. Joc – rumbles in the offseason that he’s going to get more AB’s against lefties, massive opening day…then dropped to the bench against a lefty second game.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Again, we don’t want to jump to conclusions. It could just be that Roberts wants to get everyone the team playing time early.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t read too much into it. Managers may want to get everyone in a game to start the season

9:55	Paul Swydan: I love the little hitch in Tyler Anderson’s delivery. He just struck out his 8th hitter of the night.

9:55	kevinthecomic: Major League Players Mike Stanton 1989 – 2007 Giancarlo Stanton 2010 – 2017 Buck Stanton 1931 – 1931 Harry Stanton 1900 – 1900 Leroy Stanton 1970 – 1978 Mike Stanton 1975 – 1985 Tom Stanton 1904 – 1904

9:55	kevinthecomic: just missed each other by 3 years

9:55	Paul Swydan: That’s pretty close, actually.

9:55	Also yes: Lol McCullers tired of all these infield hits

9:56	Erik: Piscotty just got hit in the elbow to get on first, hit in the other elbow while taking second on a wild pitch, and hit in the head on a play at the plate. Tough day.

9:56	37: Piscotty just got HBP, hit by the throw from the catcher when he stole second, and drilled by Baez’s throw home on a slow roller. Ever see an unluckier trip around the bases?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Definitely not. But it’s OK, he just got paid!

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to stay healthy for my Tout team

9:57	Paul Swydan: The Texas third baseman just pushed the Cleveland’s runner hand off the base and got away with it. LOL/annoying.

9:57	fred wilbur: Thoughts on DOmingo Santana hmmm … ?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I’m in. Not all in, but I’m in.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Needs either more power or less strikeouts

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Bad mix right now.

9:59	N: What’s a fair 1 for 1 SP trading match for Cargo in a dynasty?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Right now, CarGo is 46 in ADP and Strasburg is 48. I think that’s a perfect trade, because they’re both amazing when they’re healthy but are frequently injured.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Strasburg, Cueto: https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php