FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/8/14

by Paul Swydan

April 8, 2014

5:49	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to answer all of your various baseball queries. So fill up the queue and we’ll see you then!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hey people. I have a bowl of mint choc chip ice cream and some MLB.tv fired up. Lets do this.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, I guess.

9:02	Comment From Darth Stout So Brandon Belt. This is some kind of something.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: About time they let him play.

9:03	Paul Swydan: All spring I touted a breakout from Belt, and then I didn’t end up with him in the league where I could have because I had already landed Votto. Sad face.

9:03	Comment From Guest Jeff, your Royals still haven’t hit a home run

9:04	Paul Swydan: Yeah, JEFF.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Not surprising at all.

9:04	Comment From Guest Saw someone said NYM vs ATL was grimace vs count choculah so that HAS to be best matchup tonight

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure I understand this one, but I like it anyway.

9:05	Comment From Wesley Would you trade Alex Cobb for Eric Hosmer to replace VMart at 1B?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Might set a record for K’s, I think each team is in the top for hitter K%

9:05	Paul Swydan: Even allowing that the position player is always the better player to land, no, I don’t.

9:05	Comment From mustachioed business tycoon Beer and baseball: a good way to relax after a calculus test, or the best?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I would.

9:06	Paul Swydan: It’s in the top three.

9:06	Comment From Dopes Mariners Hi Paul, first time here, I play in a 4 player keeper league with contracts of 4,3,2 and 1 year… Have Votto (3), Tulo(2), Longo (1)… who of Bogaerts, Baez or Abreu should I keep for the next four years???

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: besides that whole calculus part.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I wonder who Paul will pick?

9:07	Paul Swydan: It has to be Abreu or Bogaerts for me. Since you already have Votto and Tulo, I’m not sure what the right answer is, so I guess it just depends on your league settings and how scarce shortstops are in general in your league.

9:08	Paul Swydan: RE: Baez, there’s no guarantee he’s up this year, and if he doesn’t come up this year, you have to assume he stays down until June 2015, so conservatively, you could use 1.5 of those 4 years, which is a big price to pay when you don’t have to.

9:09	Comment From mustachioed business tycoon I’ve got Nelson Cruz due for a lot of bench time on my fantasy team. 10 teamer, is he droppable? If not, who would be a good pitching trade target in a 5×5+TB+QS league? Or just a tier to shoot for? Thanks guys! Love the chats.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think he is a third tier OF at best, and I could see him being droppable in a 10-teamer. However, I also would feel just fine having him on my bench.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I would look to trade him to a team hurting in HRs and RBIs. At least try to get some value before dropping him.

9:11

Comment From Guest
Can you please explain why all four of these statements are true?
1. The Oakland A’s value platoons and attempt to use them to their advantage.
2. In his career, Daric Barton has a .365 wOBA/129 wRC+ vs. LHPs and .313/94 vs. RHP.
3. As of Opening Day, Alberto Callaspo has logged zero innings at 1B at the major league level.
4. At 1B, Oakland is planning to use Callaspo vs. LHP and Barton vs. RHP.

9:13	Paul Swydan: It’s a good question. I would guess it’s because they have parsed the splits in a way that we haven’t, but it’s certainly one worth watching.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: 1. Because they can and don’t have high salary/ego players on their team. 2. OK 3. He is more value able at 3B or 2B 4. I will not doubt Beane.

9:13	Comment From David Are you getting R.B.I. Baseball?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Well that sounds like a poll!

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: No, probably not.

9:15	Paul Swydan: For the record, I absolutely will be buying it, but need to figure out which platform I want it on.

9:15	Comment From Guest why do you guys choose fantasy questions to post in the queue then answer them in a “i hate fantasy questions” kind of way?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t hate fantasy questions, so if it comes across that way, I apologize.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I know I don’t answer some the best, but I am stuck with the ones Paul picks.

9:16	Comment From Gonzo It is the 6th inning in ARI @SF and Tim Hudson has looked pretty good. 80 pitches only two runs allowed. A bit of a sleeper for Wins in roto?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I never chase Wins, never. Just get good pitchers and the Wins will come.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Agreed. Having said that, I think Hudson is a bit of a sleeper in general.

9:18	Comment From dgrussel Buck Showalter’s sabr quote of the day: “The computer tells you the heck with batting orders. Just take your best hitter and hit him first and your second-best hitter and hit him second. I’m not so sure they’re not right.”

9:18	Paul Swydan: Buck Showalter, ladies and gentlemen!

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: but what if the second hitter can’t bunt or have bat control?

9:19	Paul Swydan: For the record though, Nick Markakis has hit either first or second in 6 of the first 7 O’s games, and the other hitters at the top of the lineup have been Lough, Hardy and Cruz, so ole Buck hasn’t exactly put this one into practice just yet.

9:19	Comment From David Bright Jeff, what am I supposed to expect from Shelby Miller long term? I recall you saying Michael Wacha was James Shields. Is Miller still Matt Cain, as he was projected a few years ago?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I think Dave Cameron said Wacha was Shields last week, but maybe Jeff said it too? As for Miller, I expect him to be at least on par with Matt Cain. Not that you asked me.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure what to expect from Miller, Cain would be great, but pitchers can change on a dime.

9:21	Comment From Jaack The D-backs have played the most games of anyone, yet have the least amount of wins. On a scale of 1-Astros, how bad is Arizona?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I still think they are around a .500 team and that hasn’t changed in a week.

9:22

Paul Swydan: They’re not Astros-bad, but whenever you look at the starting rotation they had and say “eh, all we need is Bronson Arroyo,” you’re getting what you deserve. Sure, Corbin’s injury hurt them, but I think Sullivan and Eno’s SP research has shown that you need to prepare to have 7+ SPs ready to go each year.

9:23	Comment From Oh Cananda Would MLB every let the Blue Jays leave Toronto, or would they want to keep them in Canada to keep their international presence?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I think that it would be very difficult to have the Blue Jays leave Canada.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: The problem with moving is the team needs somewhere to go.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Exactly, I don’t think they’ll find a bigger city than Toronto.

9:24	Comment From Eric What to do about Braun? The thumb thing doesn’t seem like it’s going away and after his 3-homer performance it could be the perfect time to sell him. But should I?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Jeff wrote about this yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I really like Braun coming into the season, but the injury worries me. I think get what you can.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I tend to agree with him. I think you have to wait this out. You can’t cut bait this early. Esp when he does things like he did today.

9:26	Comment From Jake What do the R and U that I’m seeing next to the ZiPS and Steamer projections on player pages stand for? Regression and somehting else?

9:27	Paul Swydan: No, the R is for Rest of Season, and the U is for Updated Full Season forecast, which takes the games already played into account.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: R = rest of season U = update on player value.

9:27	Comment From Jim Who do you have more faith in? Marlins or Brewers?

9:28	Paul Swydan: The Brewers, but that’s damning with faint praise.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Brewers. easy.

9:28	Comment From Toby Do you know if the studies from “the book” have been replicated with a larger set of data? If I recall correctly, most of their studies looked at stats from a 3-5 year period, and there would now be much more data to use for such studies.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Steve Staude replicated one for the THT ’14 Annual. I’m not sure of others. Jeff would know better than I would.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Not each one in one place, but they stand up pretty good. Some individual values have changed as the game has changed (less offense).

9:30	Comment From Richard Kisineau Looking at the Nats rotation, how many wins do you see for Jordan and Roark and do either lose there job to Giolito this season?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Fister is on his way back, so one is done. Maybe 10 total, but they are Wins so who knows.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Wouldn’t speculate on the wins, but since Giolito started the season in High A and hasn’t even reached 50 IP as a professional, I don’t think he’s going to be stealing any jobs at the major league level this season.

9:32	Comment From bryan thoughts on CC Sabathia and Jeff Weaver going forward? good for spot starts? I’m in a quality start league.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Bullish on Sabathia, bearish on Weaver, but both should be good at least for spot starts. Just make sure you don’t get too zealous with how you spot Weaver.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Weaver for what he is, he is pretty steady. In some deeper leagues, he is valuable. Right now, i am just staying away from starting Sabathia. I don’t think he would be starting if he didn’t have the huge contract.

9:34	Comment From Ghëst What’s been your favorite community article recently?

9:34	Paul Swydan: The one I put in the Best Of the week post from two weeks ago. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… http://www.fangraphs.com/co…

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Truthfully, I haven’t read one for a while. I have been trying to get an article done for Paul for THT.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Yeah, stop distracting him you guys, GOSH!

9:35	Comment From Sgt. Pepper What kind of kids eat Armour Hot Dogs?

9:36	Paul Swydan: The kind that don’t want their school principal to strap them to his chest as a means of pretending they’re a bomb vest?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Kids who parents buy Armour Hot Dogs.

9:36	Comment From Richard Kisineau Cards/Reds commentators last night claimed Pete Rose was a better lead off hitter than Ricky Henderson…thoughts???

9:36	Paul Swydan: If it was Marty Brennaman (sp), then I am in no way surprised by this statement.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Just not true and I will leave it at that.

9:37	Comment From Mo Favorite website?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: baseballheatmaps.com

9:38	Paul Swydan: You mean besides FanGraphs and The Hardball Times and Baseball Heat Maps? Let’s just say favorite non-baseball sites — Pitchfork and Slashfilm.

9:38	Comment From zurzles Should I accept J. Abreu for Rizzo?

9:39	Paul Swydan: If you’re the guy getting Abreu, I like this a lot.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I really don’t go to a place because anyone I like is in my feeder, so Feedly.com

9:39	Comment From Cochise Is De Las Rosa still worth a bench spot in deeper leagues?

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Abreau side.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I think he’s definitely worth a bench spot.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes.

9:40	Comment From Mike How many years does Albert Pujols have left? Terrible year last year, off to a slow start this year. There’s no way he makes it to the end of this contract, right?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Ask me again in a month, but his career is not looking good.

9:41	Paul Swydan: If he does, it’s because the Angels are really stubborn. Jeff timed him in spring training from home to first, and it wasn’t pretty.

9:41	Comment From Rob Some are saying Eovaldi will be the next young teacher to take the league by storm. Agree?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I don’t agree, because he’s not a teacher, and also teacher’s don’t have leagues.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: All yours Paul.

9:42	Paul Swydan: As for taking the league by storm, I think it’s a little early for that. I could see him breaking out, but right now I think it’s just two good starts.

9:43	Comment From mymaus I like the game odds calculation on the site. Any chance you guys can provide us fantasy players a continually updated number for the next 2 weeks of games? I know the farther out you go the worse the accuracy but I still think it could be useful.

9:43	Paul Swydan: It’s an interesting idea and so I posted it in the hopes that the Dark Overlord sees it.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: OK.

9:44	Comment From Mo Jeff, have you done research to determine what effects Edge% has on other stats? Seems really interesting to me.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Bill Petti did more after I initially looked at it. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:45	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Tulo is apparently hurting and I own him in four leagues so I you need me I’ll be hanging from the ceiling punching a light bulb.

9:46	Paul Swydan: It’s the only thing that’ll make you happy.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: His injury(s) should be expect.

9:46	Comment From JV 12 team league. pitching staff of Felix-Zimmermann-Gray-Archer-Haren-Porcello-Ross-Roark-Hutchison OK?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I think it is, yes. Lot riding on Gray-Archer-Ross, and Ross is certainly off to a poor start, but I think Felix-Zimmermann will paper over a lot of blemishes.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, seems good. You may need help with #5 and lower.

9:48	Comment From Daniel I am a Mariners fan and my girlfriend is an Angels fan. She doesn’t like it when I gloat after Mariner wins in April, but I point out that the Angels have won the World Series and I need to celebrate what I can. Can this work out?

9:48	Paul Swydan: It can. I believe in you guys.

9:49	Comment From Osberry Grandal is looking like the real deal. How long before he’s starting almost every game behind the plate? I hear Rivera is great at framing and I’m wondering whether that will factor in even after Grandal is fully “recovered”.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: You can’t gloat over every win, it will get old quickly.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I think it’ll take a couple of months. 1) He has to prove he can handle the back-to-backs after his knee injury(s), and 2) Bud Black seems irrationally attached to Nick Hundley, even though Nick Hundley kind of sucks.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I wouldn’t rush him to catch. He may not be full time catching until next season.

9:51	Comment From obpleagues I’ve noticed that auction leagues seem to have the most value in the later picks, but do you advocate making at least one big bid in the early going?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Absolutely. The problem with waiting until the end for everyone is that you run the risk of not using all of your money, and not using all of your money is a good way to end up with a bad team.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: It all depends on the league, I was in a auction this past weekend where the middle tier was insane and the value was with the top players. Seemed like everyone was $15 to $20

9:53

Comment From asdfasdf
By the way, the guy who asked about why you hate fantasy questions posted the same thing in response to Jeff Sullivan’s chat today because Jeff hates fantasy questions. I don’t think he was insulting you two, maybe he confused Jeff Zimmerman and Jeff Sullivan 🙂 so don’t be insulted!

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: OK.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Frankly, I think any of us would be insulted to be confused with Jeff Sullivan. Have you ever SEEN that guy? He’s so good looking it makes me sick.

9:54	Comment From Rick Brandon Belt or Melky Cabrera RoS?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Belt.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take Belt. He is on the right side of the aging curve.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Although I want to believe in a rebound from Melky.

9:55	Comment From Venturafan Khris Davis or Angel Pagan ROS?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I’d prefer Pagan, but I like both.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Davis.

9:56	Comment From toot toot how worried should I be about clay buchholz? I feel like he’s never going to be the same

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m incredibly worried about Buchholz. He seems like he’s trending toward being the next Bret Saberhagen, except without the Cy Young Awards.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: He is pitching like he did when he came back from his injury last season (lower velo). I would expect less from him as he figures it out.

9:57	Comment From JV What do you see from Michael Brantley this season?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Not much. I didn’t even consider drafting him this year.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: More of the same, undervalue in baseball, but at the end of the season his production will be in the 2-3 WAR range.

9:58	Comment From Dougie Thoughts on Ventura so far tonight in his debut?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: He is looking good. I am amazed on how the change has come along so quickly.

9:59	Comment From Pale Hose Paul – Is your White Sox rebuilding article going to be available on FG+?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yes, sorry, I will do it later tonight.

9:59	Comment From Kretin What are your thoughts on Josh Hamilton’s early success?