FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/14/13

by Paul Swydan

May 14, 2013

6:20

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

For the second straight week, I am flying solo, because both Chris and Jeff will be watching live baseball in stadiums. It’s almost like they don’t like you guys anymore. But I still love you, so join me tonight at 9 pm ET, and I’ll cram some baseball down your cramhole.

Get your questions in and I’ll see you soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: One sec guys. Cracking a Shipyard Summer real quick. The people have spoken!

9:01	Comment From AJT Is Chris and Jeff skipping out on everyone. Should they be punished?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Don’t worry, they will be!

9:02	Comment From William With reinforcements coming, could you see the Yankees pulling away?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Nope. I think the AL East is still a five-team race. Not ready to even declare the Blue Jays dead and buried. Maybe in a couple more weeks though…

9:03	Comment From Guest Does Manny Machado belong in the Harper/Trout conversation?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think he’s certainly making a case for that, and I have to say I am a little surprised. I think I maybe put too much faith in his preseason forecasts.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Having said that, I would be more comfortable putting him in that discussion if he was playing shortstop. Although third base is still higher on the defensive spectrum than is left field, so maybe I’m just being stubborn.

9:04	Comment From asdfasdf A few weeks ago I traded Goldschmidt for Cespedes. Was that a mistake? Thanks

9:04	Paul Swydan: If for no other reason than health, I would say that you did, yeah. Sorry. Even without health though, I like Goldschmidt better. BUT, I am a bit of a Goldie apologist.

9:04	Comment From Steve Who has the best shot of these 4 to crack the Fangraphs top 100 at seasons end? Thanks! Josmil Pinto, Rock Shoulders, Danny Salazar, and Josh Phegley?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I really hope the answer to this question is Rock Shoulders, because, come on that’s the best name ever. But to be honest, I’m really not sure. A) I’m not super familiar with those guys, and 2) It’s a little too early still.

9:05	Comment From Steve Next 5 years who are you betting on?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Jack Moore. He’s pretty damn smart.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Oh, you mean teams? Hmmm…hard to bet against the Rays and the Red Sox. I also am eager to see what the Cubs look like in five years.

9:06

Comment From Steve
For the next 5 seasons which duo would you take? Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha, Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler, or Matt Moore and Chris Archer? (feel free to subsitute Rosenthal or C-Mart over Wacha if you prefer, or any of the Rays Durham rotation for Archer if that you’re thing)

9:07	Paul Swydan: Man, that’s a tough one. Let’s make a poll out of it, shall we?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Actually, just making this Mets and Cards.

9:08	Comment From Jaack You should start adding your name into the title, even when Chris and Jeff are here. While they’re on vacation, go on an ego trip.

9:09	Paul Swydan: When we started I put my name in the title, but then we made the switch, and frankly, I like it better this way. Some weeks I have to bail, so we all cover each other’s backs.

9:09	Comment From Guest Would a player with a slash line of .400/.400/.400 over 162 games win MVP? Should he?

9:10	Paul Swydan: He’d certainly be in the running, but a .400 SLG means a likely lack of homers, so even with the .400 AVG he might not be a slam dunk. Ted Williams didn’t win MVP the year he hit .406, so …

9:10	Paul Swydan: Felix being checked out on the mound for a knee and/or back injury. Cameron and Sullivan (and Barr and Sanders) just fainted.

9:10	Comment From Homer Simpson What’s the deal with Jean Segura? He’s on pace for like 25/50. Nothing I read about him suggested anything like this. Should I be carving out space for him as a keeper in a pretty shallow league?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I wasn’t expecting this much this soon, but he was highly touted and I did expect him to be a top 15 shortstop by season’s end. He simply might get there sooner than I expected. Also, he’s probably not going to hit 25/50.

9:12	Paul Swydan: That was a really weird bounce on that hit in the Yankees game. Oh, it hit the net.

9:12	Comment From Nick At what point do you think the Cardinals will bring up Oscar Tavares and do you think we will see Michael Wacha this year?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Probably not until someone gets hurt. And yes, I think Wacha will make his way to St. Louis before the end of the year.

9:13	Comment From Guest Have you listened to Indicud yet? Thoughts if you have any…

9:13	Paul Swydan: Pass.

9:13	Comment From Guest Would you say that you are never going to give us up, never going to let us go?

9:14	Paul Swydan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

9:14	Paul Swydan: Never gonna run arounnnnddddddddd, and hurt you!

9:14	Comment From cal guy Who would you rather have long term, Gausman or Bradley?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Gausman probably.

9:15	Comment From cal guy What is the likelihood that Doc returns in 3 mo as he says, and do you think he will ever be really good again?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Doc Rivers? Sure, why not?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Oh you mean Halladay. Well, I won’t doubt his return date, but I doubt he will be really good. Maybe just good, probably serviceable or worse.

9:15	Comment From cal guy Please rank these injury stash starters: Lewis, Luebke, Hudson, Feliz (is he even a starter again?).

9:16	Paul Swydan: Luebke, Hudson, Feliz (if he’s a starter, otherwise he’s last), and Lewis. Oh, and I’d have Beachy ahead of all of them, assuming he slots back into the rotation right away.

9:16	Comment From Casey Pffhht whatever we don’t need Chris or Jeff you were always my favourite anyways

9:16	Paul Swydan: Awww.

9:16	Comment From Don Is this dynasty trade awful (I am not winning this year and gave up Kershaw)? Kershaw for Jose Fernandez, Zach Wheeler, Tony Cingrani and Ryu.

9:18

Paul Swydan: It’s not awful. But if you’re in a dynasty league, why do you want Ryu? He’s a year older than Kershaw. No, if you do a deal for Kershaw, you need someone with a higher ceiling than Ryu, someone who is better than Cingrani, so that the package is Wheeler, Fernandez, Player 3 and Cingrani.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I mean, Kershaw is basically one of the 2-3 most valuable pitchers in fantasy, and esp in dynasty formats. Don’t take the pu pu platter. Take the Godfather offer. That is not a Godfather offer.

9:18	Comment From Casey My pitching is so terrible, out of Grimm, Beckett, De la rosa and Santiago which two would you rather have?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Beckett and Santiago, but it isn’t pretty.

9:19	Paul Swydan: O’s got a man to third with one out in the bottom of the 8th off Cashner. Hundley air mails throw into center on SB attempt.

9:19	Comment From Michael BB Hey Paul, would you send Jeff Samardzija, Aroldis Chapman, and Julio Teheran for Matt Harvey? 14 team dynasty league, and Samardzija and Chapman are my 11th and 12th best SPS.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’d do that deal.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Well,

9:20	Paul Swydan: Maybe not.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I still like it.

9:20	Comment From Northsider The Cubs just made a great decision in locking down Anthony Rizzo. Aside from Jeff Samardzija, who is the next player the Chicago Cubs try to lock down?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I would think Castillo or Barney could be candidates for smaller dollar total deals.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Otherwise, not really anyone on the major league roster besides Shark.

9:22	Comment From Northsider Most underrated pie? I’m torn between Key Lime and Sheapard’s

9:23	Paul Swydan: Key lime.

9:23	Comment From jim If you had to chose between the two (contract included): Matt Harvey or King Felix?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Harvey.

9:23	Comment From jim Have you heard anything about Rafael De Paula and his stuff? 33 IP and 58K this season!

9:24	Paul Swydan: I haven’t, and that name doesn’t even come up in our database. He’s a phantom!!!!

9:25	Comment From Jim C Best Closer in MLB is __________.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Still Kimbrel.

9:25	Comment From 888 Are the Yankees the best team in the AL?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no.

9:25	Comment From Aaron Drop David Hernandez to pick up Fujikawa off waivers

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’d find someone else to drop.

9:25	Comment From asdfasdf Hey Paul, would you start Greinke tomorrow?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Absolutely.

9:26	Comment From Marco Who are you most worried about in my rotation? Cain, Sheilds, Haren, Hellickson, Cobb, Ryu

9:26	Paul Swydan: Haren, and then I’m always wary of Hellickson.

9:26	Comment From Tom Has Kevin Gregg sold his soul to the devil? And if not, how is this happening? Fuji’s still the best bet to lead team in saves at the end of season right?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Because every once in awhile a guy rips off a scoreless streak even if he’s not that good. And yes, I still think it’s Fujikawa’s job in the end, esp if his recent velocity uptick sticks.

9:27	Comment From Klack McGank Favorite pitcher to watch is ___________. (1 RP and 1 SP)

9:27	Paul Swydan: Kershaw and, oddly, I’ll say Matt Belisle. Closest thing we have left to a constant 2-inning reliever.

9:28	Comment From zack Better Rest of Season: Josh Hamilton or Vernon Wells?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Hahha. Hamilton.

9:28	Comment From newzooreview ROS A.J. Burnett or Shields?

9:29	Paul Swydan: oohh. I’ll say Shields, but it’s close.

9:29	Comment From Yankees Canadian Beer FTW!

9:29	Paul Swydan: Uh, I didn’t realize Portland, Maine was in Canada now…

9:29	Comment From ChrisD Starting Pat Corbin tonight?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I would be if I owned him anywhere.

9:29	Comment From Eric H. Who will win the AL East this year?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I predicted the Rays at the beginning of the year, and I’ll stick with that. Though I’m mighty tempted to change my pick to the Red Sox.

9:30	Comment From Big Yellow Joint I’ll meet you down at the big yellow joint

9:30	Paul Swydan: Already there brah, turn around, I’m waving!

9:30	Comment From Eric H. who wins more games? Angels or blue jays

9:30	Paul Swydan: Angels

9:30

Comment From Charlie Hustle
Hey Paulie. In a H2H 10 team, 10 player keeper. Ihave an abundance of 3B; Longoria, Headley, Donaldson. Is it wise to try to trade Longo and upgrade elsewhere? Specifically SS, 1b, or SP. Currently have Hanley(SS), Ortiz or Ike Davis(1B.(SP) Felix and Bumgarner, Burnett, Kennedy, Holland, Medlen, Dickey, Kendrick, Feldman, Liriano.

9:31	Paul Swydan: You could try to trade for a SS upgrade, but I think — if you mean David Ortiz at first base — that your 1B and SP are fine. And it might be hard to deal for a more talented SS than Hanley, so you might either stand pat, or try to trade Donaldson for a SS who is just healthy.

9:31	Comment From AJT What did you think of Harper’s collision?

9:32	Paul Swydan: It was a little disturbing, to be honest.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I was going to look up whether or not that was his first time playing right in Dodger Stadium, but then I got busy and forgot.

9:32	Comment From zack Are you buying Carl Crawford being back?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I am.

9:32	Comment From Prospect Junkie Please explain why a rebuilding team like the Mets would give MLB starts to a guy that couldn’t even find playing time with the Astros? While I’ve supported a lot of Alderson’s moves, this one is baffling.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure the Mets are still rebuilding. I think that they have two items left to check off their list — 1) Make sure Wheeler is not rushed, 2) Getting a good outfield.

9:34	Paul Swydan: They pretty much have all the other pieces in place already. I guess maybe add d’Arnaud to part 1.

9:34	Comment From BOO-URNS in your ESPN piece, i saw no mention of beachy returning as being a positive insofar as the ATL rotation is concerned. your thoughts?

9:36

Paul Swydan: Well, it was about who is becoming elite right now, so that is part of it. Beachy is still not expected to return until July. But also, there’s a) no gaurantee that he doesn’t have a setback once he does get into game action and 2) with a full rotation, they may need an injury to get him back in there. So it’s still a little murky.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Here’s that piece, FYI – http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9269591/detroit-tigers-three-teams-emerge-cut-rest-mlb

9:37	Comment From zack Better Rest of the Season: Ubaldo or Lincecum?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Lincecum

9:37	Comment From Prospect Junkie Pick ’em: Rizzo vs. Goldschmidt. Does the answer change if you’re talking about the rest of season vs. the rest of their careers?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I like Goldschmidt for both, but again, I am a Goldie apologist. It’s a close question, and I realize I am in the minority.

9:37	Comment From Eric H. What do my Royals have to do to make people believe in them?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Keep winning. Simple as that.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Maybe finally get rid of Frenchy as well.

9:38	Comment From anz Cingrani looks stellar. Does he stay over Leake or does Leake get the advantage being around longer?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Leake might have an edge, but he might also get to be the long man.

9:38	Comment From zack Will Pujols contract end up being worse than ARODs?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Well, when you say that, let’s be clear — worse than A-Rod’s newest contract. His first big deal was a great value. But, it’ll be close. Toss Ryan Howard’s deal in there and it’s a bad contract jamboree!

9:39	Comment From Justin Are you going to be chatting long enough for me to complain about the Dodgers later on, or should I get it all out of my system now?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Get it alllllll out Justin. We’re here for you.

9:40	Comment From WRPEMB Who is John Gast?

9:40	Paul Swydan: A pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, apparently.

9:40	Comment From Guest The Cardinals have to have the brightest future of any team right? Lot of major league talent and the best farm system is hard to beat.

9:40	Paul Swydan: They’re up there. I forgot them in the next five years question. My bad on that.

9:40	Comment From Bryan What do you think the Braves will do with their rotation when Brandon Beachy is ready to come back?

9:41	Paul Swydan: That’s a good question. I think they would prefer the decision be made for them, either via injury or ineffectiveness.

9:42	Paul Swydan: If not, I wonder if they’d consider dealing Tim Hudson. It’s his last year under contract anyway.

9:42	Comment From Prospect Junkie Cashner and Tillman putting on a clinic. Who would you rather own rest of season?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Cashner probably. The O’s rotation seems less stable.

9:42	Comment From RoboUmp How about Miller, Wacha, Martinez, and Rosenthal vs Harvey and Wheeler? Cards have so much young pitching they don’t know what to do with it all.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Well, that’s really not fair, because it’s 4 guys against 2.

9:43

Comment From zadzooks
Last week I asked you about trading Matt Moore for Goldschmidt to fill out an empty CI slot, which I may have been able to do. But I had an offer for Panda on the table that I thought had expired, and it got accepted last minute. Was this a big downgrade? I’m worried about his health. This is a small keeper league (only 3) where Moore wouldn’t have been kept.

9:44	Paul Swydan: The downgrade from Goldschmidt to Sandoval, or Moore to Sandoval? Either way, I think you’re OK. Sandoval might not make a final 3 cut list, but if he doesn’t then you have one of those good problems.

9:44	Comment From Marco Hernandez or fujikowa? I’ve got to drop one

9:45	Paul Swydan: If you HAVE to drop one, I’d drop Fujikawa. But it’s close, and it puts you in a bad spot, since both teams have managers trending to bat sh*t crazy.

9:45	Comment From Guest If you were stacked in pitching and weak on offense, would you trade Kershaw and Perkins for Votto?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Maybe under that scenario, yes.

9:45	Comment From RoboUmp Is Mujica legit?

9:46	Paul Swydan: He’s legit until he isn’t legit. And then it will be Rosenthal’s turn.

9:46	Comment From Eric H. Being a fangraphs guy, do you consider people at baseball reference rivals, or just fellow baseball fans whose opinions might differ on some things

9:46	Paul Swydan: Well, B-Ref doesn’t really blog the way we do, so I don’t consider them competitors, no. I love B-Ref. Pretty much the only data subscription I willingly and happily pay for each year is their Play Index.

9:47	Comment From Northsider AL and NL Comeback players of the year:

9:47	Paul Swydan: I usually do a post on this in July and forget at least one incredibly obvious candidate. Let’s spare my humiliation until then, shall we?

9:47	Comment From Chicago Mark Hello Paul, Thoughts on Kyle Kendrick this year. Walking less. Striking out more (a few). And lots of GB’s. o/u ros 3.50/1.20

9:48	Paul Swydan: I’m a believer. Almost wrote him up yesterday but picked the White Sox instead. And I picked him up in one of my 2 daily leagues. I was impressed by his outing in ARI on Sunday.

9:48	Comment From Steve If you’re Davey Johnson do you try to convince Harper to be less reckless?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Nope. Let him do what he does. He will learn his boundaries — if he has any — in time.

9:48	Comment From ChrisD I traded away Espinosa for Corbin. Should I party tonight?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Like it’s 1999.

9:49	Comment From CharlieHustle Encarnacion & Fowler for Rizzo & Bourn…who wins?

9:49	Paul Swydan: E5 and Fowler side.

9:49	Comment From Ian Beachy is supposed to be back in the middle of June, not July. And I would expect him to take Teheran’s position in the rotation easily.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Of the current options that would make the most sense. But a month from now Teheran could have just rattled off four straight quality starts, and then what do you do?

9:50	Comment From Maverick Ahh, how about Rizzo vs Encarnacion ROS in OB% league?

9:50	Paul Swydan: E5

9:50	Comment From Guest Paul, Paul, Paul… Canadian Beer FTW = Screw your light american beer.

9:50	Paul Swydan: That’s not very nice.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Besides, you know Canadian beer is like moonshine!

9:50	Comment From Bryan What’s going on with Kris Medlen?

9:50	Paul Swydan: He simply wasn’t THAT good.

9:51	Comment From Guest any concern for cashner low k rate . only 3ks tonight

9:51	Paul Swydan: Nope. Everyone has a low K day. I think Kershaw had a 4 K day recently. It happens.

9:51	Comment From Eric H. I didn’t mean with blogs, I meant the way they do statistical analysis. I know your calculation of WAR is difference than theirs and I’m sure other statistical calculations are too.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Oh. Well, no, the two sites unified the baseline calculation for WAR now, so it is a lot easier to compare the two stats now. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/unifying-replacement-level/

9:52	Comment From newzooreview Got to drop one. Kendrick or Dempster?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Dempster.

9:52	Comment From zack How bad is Harold Reynolds analysis?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Very bad.

9:53	Comment From zack How bad is the mets outfield?

9:53	Paul Swydan: It’s pretty bad, but as the Indians showed this past winter, you can fix an outfield pretty quickly if you get creative.

9:53	Comment From Teh Giraffe so brandon belt is heating up. what do you see him ROS

9:53	Paul Swydan: Meh.

9:54	Comment From Guest CC had 11Ks… not EVERYONE had low Ks today

9:54	Paul Swydan: OK, thanks for sharing!

9:54	Comment From Rob 19 team keeper. Greinke needs to be activated. Who do I drop/trade: Doolittle ($10), W. Peralta ($5), Colon ($10), McCarthy ($17). I need to make up Ks.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Probably Colon. In a keeper league, you’ll regret losing him less. Although I’m tempted to drop McCarthy too, because a) that’s prob more than he’s worth and 2) I’m not convinced he can stay healthy.

9:55	Comment From Guest If ever your in Ottawa, I’ll gladly bring you to some amazing local breweries

9:55	Paul Swydan: I can’t imagine why I’d ever be in Ottawa, but if I am I’ll let you know!

9:55	Paul Swydan: Nice comeback win for the Padres tonight. I still believe.

9:56	Comment From Jimbo I have Tulo, Segura, Drew and HanRam at SS on my fantasy team, im in 1st place.. What should I do? who should I trade?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Well, I guess it depends on whether or not it’s a keeper league and whether or not you’re trying to win this year. But with the info I have, I’ll say try to trade Hanley.

9:56

Comment From Ban
Jack Morris apparently apologized for Bucholz for the greasing accusations, while Dirk Hayhurst steadfastly refused. Dirk did the right thing here right? No journalist/reporter should have to apologize for making a very legitimate observation backed by evidence, regardless of whether or not it hurts someones reputation.

9:58

Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t really consider Hayhurst a journalist or a reporter, or a person whose opinion I need to care about for that matter. Morris realized that he is also none of those things and decided to man up and apologize. Good for him.

Finally, what evidence? No impartial body ever documented Buchholz doing anything illicit or illegal, and the Blue Jays never asked for him to be checked. As far as I’m concerned, this was little more than Hayhurst feeling like he needed to sell a couple extra books.

9:59	Comment From mtndew what’s wrong with your red sox recently? They went from playing like the best team ever to playing like the Astros. Lester got lit up tonight.