FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/19/15

by Paul Swydan

May 19, 2015

5:45	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I will be here at 9 pm ET to answer all of your baseballing queries. Jeff may be here too, but he may also be busy. This is the whole intro, because my kids are beating each other up right now. See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi people!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Yo

9:01	Comment From Minty Do you prefer $3 Thor or $1 Rodon for a dynasty?

9:01	Paul Swydan: $1 Rodon. Always take the cheaper pitcher.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Thor based on being in the NL and can throw strikes.

9:02	Comment From Toosmoothmofo What’s going on with Julio Teheran? Walk rate way up, h/9 too. Will he get back to normal soon?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: He has been out pitching his ERA estimators for years and it is finally catching up. His FIP is the only stat which is totally out of place.

9:04

Paul Swydan: He’s trying to get more ground balls, which is a good plan since the Braves outfield defense is terrible, but so far it isn’t translating into many outs. He’s also allowing way more homers than usual, and his K/BB numbers are going in the wrong direction. Some of that will cure itself, but I wouldn’t bet on all of it fixing itself this season. He’s a stay away for me.

9:05	Comment From ZMo Still interested to see what Taijuan Walker can do

9:05	Paul Swydan: Interested, yes. Excited, no.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, he shows the signs of greatness, but just not consistant.

9:06	Comment From Thomas Lasorda If you hypothetically became the Dodgers GM would you even entertain the idea of trading Yasiel Puig? And if so, what could you get for him?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I would probably entertain trading everybody all the time, but it would be pretty hard to move Puig. He’s young, under team control, and awesome. That’s basically the player you would want in return, so it’d be hard to see why you’d want to trade him.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: No way would I trade away possibly the team’s best player. Why trade him when they can just buy all the players they want/need.

9:08	Comment From TheTheory Mad Max was pretty excellent. But I’d be lying if I wasn’t equally pumped for Pitch Perfect 2. #thistheseason

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’m glad you’re not lying to us, because that’d be pretty rude.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I will catch up with movies in a couple of weeks. Too much playoff baseball for college and high school right now.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Also, I think I need to see Mad Max. I never saw the original three, but from what I’ve read, you don’t need to to see this one.

9:09	Comment From Steve Lance Lynn’s numbers seem legit. Are you buying?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I am. I love Lance Lynn. Very underrated IMO.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I have always been a Lynn fan, he deserves a good season.

9:10	Comment From Steve Why won’t the Mets make a move for offensive help? Wright isn’t the player he used to be and him/D’Arnaud can’t be trusted to stay healthy anyway.

9:11	Paul Swydan: 1) Because everyone is focused on the draft right now. 2) Because the Mets never do anything that makes sense.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: They will be able to move some pitching. I see the Royals picking up Gee if he can get healthy.

9:12	Comment From Steve Can my outfield survive? Springer, Pollock and Span in a H2H points league.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Survive, yes. Succeed……leaning no.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I would only want one of Pollock/Span on my roster.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: depends on the number of owners

9:13	Comment From Steve Build the perfect cheeseburger (or hamburger if you’re into that).

9:14	Paul Swydan: All cheeseburgers are the perfect cheeseburger. Seriously, it depends on my mood. I’m the kind of guy who rarely orders the same burger twice in a row, unless the kids are screaming at me and I can’t really read the menu. Also, I miss Red Robin. Yum.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: bacon, bleu with all the tops -or- a green chili and cheese stuffed burger.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I will say this – I very rarely like lettuce on my burgers.

9:15

Comment From RPT
Silly, strictly hypothetical question: Could two teams theoretically temporarily trade two players, say, for a week or a series? Maybe a team like the Tigers during interleague play trading Victor for a series to a team that has a surplus in pitching for a bullpen arm or spot start?

9:16	Paul Swydan: While not technically illegal, I’m pretty sure this is frowned upon, and on the return end, I could see the Commissioner’s Office either flat out vetoing this trade, or imposing some sort of financial sanctions on the teams involved. It would never happen.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I am trying to think of a direct violation, but can’t.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Also what Paul said.

9:17	Comment From Landsmo Forecast for Singleton call-up? It’s inhumane for him to keep doing this to Fresno. I’m calling the police.

9:18	Paul Swydan: You would think it’d be any time now, since he’s locked into that contract, but they don’t necessarily have an obvious spot for him, and the big league team is winning, so there isn’t a huge need to rock the boat. I’ll say at least another couple of weeks, unless someone gets hurt.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: The key for him will be keeping his K% under 35%.

9:19	Comment From hscer Wilmer Difo 1.000 career average

9:19	Paul Swydan: Best. Callup. Ever.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: MVP

9:19	Comment From Kid How does the Dodgers’ logjam sort itself out over the season? Once Puig is back, they’ve got Ethier, SVS, Guerrero, and Turner hitting like all-stars, and Uribe’s defense/presence is obviously valuable.

9:20

Paul Swydan: I think we’ve said it a couple of times, but I don’t think they’ll do anything. Maybe they find someone to take Crawford’s contract, but I doubt it. I think they’ll just rotate guys in and out of the lineup, and have an actual valuable bench come playoff time. It’s an idea just crazy enough to work!

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: This logjam existed before the season. I think they should move some hitters for relief pitchers.

9:21	Comment From Trainman Am I crazy to say Kluber is the best pitcher in baseball overtaking Kershaw?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, you came to this chat AND submitted a question, so I’m not going to call you crazy, but you’re definitely wrong. Sorry.

9:22	Comment From Landsmo Carter severely disappointing. seems like he could dh?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: His BABIP is way low compared to his hard hit tendencies. I could see him pick it up at some point.

9:23	Paul Swydan: True, but Carter has been an above average hitter for the past three seasons, and he is rocking a career low .219 BABIP. I’d give him some more time.

9:23	Comment From hscer The Yankees have a pitcher named Chasen – could his parents not agree between Chase and Jason?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t be surprised if the backstory behind his name is even dumber than that.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t get the naming of some kids.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Agreed, and I don’t try to either.

9:24	Comment From raymond Need a Dickerson replacement, Eaton, Byrd, Pearce, Souza, someone else under the radar?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Probably Souza or Byrd. I want to say Pearce, but he’s still underperforming.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Souza for now.

9:25

Comment From Lenard
Regarding the hypothetical trade/trade back scenario, it seems like something that you could get away with once. Or longer-term, rent a player under team control for the rest of the season, and trade him back during the off-season, with a bit of financial compensation or mid to low tier pospect back

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the league would make a rule for this at some point.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I believe this sort of thing did used to happen how you mention – trading them back during the offseason. But I still don’t think it would be worth it to put a bullseye on your back with the Commissioner’s Office.

9:27	Comment From mymaus I don’t get kid naming either. I met a guy who let his 6 year old name his new born. Blueberry!!In my OBP league who if anyone do I drop if Castillo is brought up (Farrell hinted he may be up soon) Fowler, Soler, Souza or Calhoun?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Fowler or Souza

9:27	Paul Swydan: Blueberry is a new one on me. At least it’s a healthy fruit??? Also, given those four options I’m not entirely convinced you need to drop any of them for Castillo, but I guess Calhoun? Maybe Souza.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:28	Comment From Joe Is there something wrong with Joey Votto, he’s been cold for a month?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I think he was just playing over his head for a little bit. The knee thing seems like it isn’t going away and will sap his power as the season progresses. I’d love to be wrong, but that’s how I see it right now.

9:29	Comment From fantasy baseball heyward and bogaerts or lester? have clogged OF of springer soler marte blackmon choo hayward and need to get rid of the logjam

9:30	Paul Swydan: I mean, if you can really get Lester for those two guys, go for it, but that seems a little light given how they’re both playing.

9:30	Comment From Cidron Forget the occasion, but there was a trade back in the day, Team A traded for player A, return was a player to be named later, who turned out to be that same player.

9:30	Comment From Cidron http://en.wikipedia.org/wik… (name of player traded for ‘himself’ )

9:31	Paul Swydan: Good find, thanks!

9:31	Comment From Coach If I have the room in a 12-teamer, smart to roster Van Slyke and throw him in when he plays? Dude mashes but PT is sporadic. Any chance he gets traded?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I think if you have room and are constantly watching your lineup, definitely go for it.

9:31	Comment From Trainman The best baby name is when George Costanza from Seinfeld suggested to name his kids Seven

9:32	Paul Swydan: Indeed. I had my wife convinced that I was going to push for our first to be named Nine, after Ted Williams. Also, don’t forget about Soda.

9:32	Comment From ryN How bout Mug, Mug Costanza LOL

9:33	Paul Swydan: Seinfeld made a great face when he said that.

9:33	Comment From Kid Danny Espinosa – BB% way up, K% way down, normal BABIP and a .367 wOBA in 120 plate appearances. SSS galore or possible that he gained some new skills?

9:34	Paul Swydan: He’s always hit the ball hard, it’s just been a matter of making better contact. He’s doing that now, and if it keeps up, this could be a good year for him. I’m cautiously optimistic.

9:35	Comment From Trainman What can Texas expect from Josh Hamilton when he returns next week?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think it’ll be for the best if they expect nothing from him. Anything he does should be considered a positive.

9:36	Comment From Cidron told my sister to name her daughter Denise, and her son Denephew

9:36	Paul Swydan: Nice.

9:36	Comment From skipper need OF help, is it counter-productive to put Mookie or Hanley as an OF then someone like Kang as M.I. or better to look for a true OF to take the slot?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t worry about having Mookie or Hanley in an outfield spot, no.

9:37	Comment From ryN Werth worth holding onto?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I’m pretty pessimistic at this point. He was dropped in my league, and I have no plans to pick him up and stash him. My DL spots, for reference, are Dickerson and Lamb.

9:38	Comment From Rated Rookie Shelby Miller for Manny Machado a even trade (keep-forever, if that bit of context helps)?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I’d rather have Machado, but it’s definitely even-ish at first blush.

9:39

Comment From Guest
The 3 times Don Mattingly has stacked a right handed lineup against a left handed pitcher, the dodgers have scored a total of 4 runs. With a matchup with Bumgarner looming on Thursday, it seems likely he’ll do it again. Am I wrong for being upset at Mattingly taking the bat out of Adrian Gonzalez and Joc’s hands? It seems counter intuitive.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Well, as we’ve discussed before, Mattingly has his work cut out for him trying to get everyone playing time. They have guys on that bench who are good enough to be starters, and someone has to sit at some point.

9:40	Paul Swydan: I agree that it’s frustrating to take the bat out of those guys’ hands, but Mattingly has to do something, and benching those guys against lefties isn’t the worst idea ever.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Back, sorry for leaving you with Paul. Hopefully not too many Xander questions.

9:41	Comment From Yas If a pitcher commits an error that leads to a run, is it earned or unearned?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I believe still unearned, which is pretty funny.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Unearned and a stupid rule

9:41	Paul Swydan: Hey Jeff, we had a Werth question. You buying or selling?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Buying low

9:42	Comment From Marc Smyly and/or Ryu worth holding onto or are they droppable if DL space is needed?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Another injury one for Jeff.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Ryu is the only one, Smyly is done for the year.

9:43	Comment From hscer unearned because it’s a reflection of his fielding, not pitching.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Well, sure, but it’s still funny.

9:43	Comment From Kid Assuming I need impact bats, give up Harper (non keeper) for Votto plus one of Betts/Blackmon?

9:43	Paul Swydan: No, keep Harper!

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I think I would depending on who you are placing with Votto.

9:44	Comment From Flesh Gordon 13 team roto 3 tKeeper league, should I trade keepable Gomez, Harvey, Hamilton, Pap for Trout, Upton, Kershaw, Chapman?

9:45	Paul Swydan: If you can land Trout, Kershaw and Chapman in the same trade you should have a monument built in your honor.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul

9:45	Paul Swydan: Unless Trout et al aren’t keepable players? I guess I’m not clear on that part. Still tho.

9:45	Comment From Trainman I believe there was an article saying Smyly may not be done for the year: http://tbo.com/sports/blogs…

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: May is the key word. I would rather have Nova or Corbin

9:47	Paul Swydan: I guess I’m not sure why the Rays would bother with that, other than blind optimism. I don’t see the Rays as good enough to need Smyly in September/October, but perhaps they feel differently about the situation.

9:47	Comment From Yas Thoughts on Ian Kennedy? He’s been brutal, does K-rate and home park make him enough to hold on to?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: He has always been home run prone and the K% is back to old levels.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Well, his K rate has regressed to where it was from 2012-13, which is to say, not good enough. I’d cut bait.

9:48	Comment From Steve Is the Boxberger/McGee situation in Tampa going to ruin both of their values? I’m not sure if they are going with 1 closer or not.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Also: http://www.fangraphs.com/pi…

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Last two starts of Kennedy dropped a bunch

9:50

Paul Swydan: Here’s what Ben said about the situation in Bullpen Report last night –

• Jake McGee is back and Brad Boxberger is having an excellent season leaving the Rays with a classic ‘good problem to have’ in the back of the bullpen as both are excellent closing options. Boxberger says that he is comfortable in whatever role he’s in but I would expect him to still see consistent save opportunities for the Rays.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe on their value for Saves. I am surprised more of these situations don’t exist.

9:50	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

9:50	Comment From carl Burgos getting his second save opp in as many days for the DBacks. Has he vaulted Ziegler in the pecking order?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I think there’s definitely a chance. FWIW, I think Reed was handled very poorly, and once he starts getting regular work he’ll straighten things out and get the job back.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, last night was because everyone else was already used. Not sure about tonight.

9:51	Paul Swydan: And by handled poorly, I mean used very sporadically. Guys need to pitch.

9:52

Comment From Parker
I have four stellar RPs – Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland, Huston Street, and Dellin Betances – for three slots in one league. In keeping all four I am preventing myself from occupying all six SP slots (there is a 200 GS limit in the league but I am in no danger of that). Should I consider trading/dropping one of the four RPs in exchange for a SP or MI (currently have Neil Walker, Andrus, Utley, Hechavarria occupying three starting spots) or just continue rotating them through when one of them is off his game (like Street was a couple weeks ago)? If so, which one would you recommend dropping?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I would try to trade one of them for MI help for sure. Street, if possible. You can trumpet the fact that he just got an extension and has all sorts of job security now.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep the top 2 and trade one of the other ones. Maybe one RP and on of your MI for MI upgrade.

9:54	Comment From G Money Late quick question, keeper league, I need pitching and have Arenado as trade bait, who should I target or should I just keep?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I love Arenado, but if you need pitching, I’d be open to dealing him. You definitely want a very good pitcher in return – #2 at least.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Just about anyone except a one of the top 5. Greinke like

9:55	Paul Swydan: Ha, I was thinking Greinke too.

9:55	Comment From Steve Bumgarner for Adam Jones in the ole vacuum. Take a side, any side.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I’ll side with Jones.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Jones

9:55	Comment From Rated Rookie Care to guess when Anthony Rendon returns?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Early June with no setbacks

9:56	Comment From Steve Do you trust Frias tonight? Hudson isn’t too intimidating.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Can’t say that I do, even with Hudson not being intimidating.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Trust is a strong term. No, not really

9:57	Comment From carl Time to move on from Morneau? Seems unlikely he’ll be back at the end of his 7-day DL stint…

9:57	Paul Swydan: In fantasy? Sure. In real life though, the Rockies have every reason to keep playing him (when he returns) and see if he can draw some interest at the trade deadline.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Little chance IMO, especially with previous concussions

9:58	Comment From L. Scott Out of these 4 players, which 2 would you regularly start in the utility spot in a 12 team roto league: Adam Lind, Jimmy Rollins, Joc Pederson, or Yasmani Tomas?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Pederson and ………. big gap, Lind or Tomas.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Lind and Pederson

9:58	Comment From Ancient mariner I’m wondering how much longer us Mariner fans have to put up with Rodney as the closer. I assume he’ll stay the man as long as they’re in contention but do you thing they move him if the team continues to stink? If so who do you think takes over?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I would assume that Farquhar would be next in line, but don’t see that happening any time soon.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: He is the closer for now and I don’t see them changing.

9:59	Comment From bravesfan10001 Pederson and Tomas. Lind is a platoon bat at best.