FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/19/17

by Paul Swydan

May 16, 2017

2:58

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 6-8 pm ET matchup?

TB (Odorizzi) vs. CLE (Salazar) (25.0% | 34 votes)

WAS (Strasburg) vs. PIT (Kuhl) (8.8% | 12 votes)

BAL (Miley) vs. DET (Boyd) (3.6% | 5 votes)

HOU (Keuchel) vs. MIA (Koehler) (6.6% | 9 votes)

CIN (Arroyo) vs. CHC (Lackey) (5.1% | 7 votes)

PHI (Eickhoff) vs. TEX (Darvish) (20.5% | 28 votes)

COL (Freeland) vs. MIN (Hughes) (5.1% | 7 votes)

BOS (Rodriguez) vs. STL (Lynn) (22.7% | 31 votes)

NYY (Sabathia) vs. KC (Hammel) (2.2% | 3 votes)

Total Votes: 136

2:59

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 9 pm ET or later matchup?

NYM (Milone) vs. ARI (Greinke) (22.4% | 29 votes)

CHW (Holland) vs. LAA (Ramirez) (13.1% | 17 votes)

MIL (Nelson) vs. SD (Richard) (3.8% | 5 votes)

OAK (Triggs) vs. SEA (De Jong) (5.4% | 7 votes)

LAD (Hill) vs. SF (Blach) (55.0% | 71 votes)

Total Votes: 129

3:00

Paul Swydan:

If the Celtics win the NBA Draft lottery tonight, is Paul going to be paying attention to any questions?

Of course, Paul is a professional. (13.7% | 18 votes)

I kind of doubt it, I’d be excited too. (10.6% | 14 votes)

Bwahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahaha (26.7% | 35 votes)

What’s the NBA? (48.8% | 64 votes)

Total Votes: 131

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi Paul

9:00	Paul Swydan: Thanks to the 16 people who think I’m a professional. That’s 16 more people than normal!

9:00	JP: Montgomery or Garza?

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Monty … I think.

9:01	Paul Swydan: They’re about the same in terms of FIP-. Montgomery has the higher K% but also the higher BB%. Neither is a sure thing.

9:01	JP: Should I drop Puig or Schebler for Story?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, I may disappear at any point. Tornado-producing storms in my area.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Really depends on positional and category need.

9:03	Paul Swydan: If you really need a shortstop, maybe.

9:03	Jake: Is Yasmani Grandal the clear 2nd best catcher in baseball below Posey? And is he close to seizing the top spot?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not yet. He is in the conversation though

9:04	Paul Swydan: No and no.

9:04	Steve: Hi guys, I’m looking at moving C. Davis in a 12 teamer (H2H points) where K’s do not count. Are Alonso and Piscotty a good return or aim higher?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Aim higher.

9:05	BK: Oh damn, be safe, Jeff

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Combined? I may take both. Really depends if Piscotty is an improvement in the OF

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I will. The worst ones are about an hour out

9:06	Steve: Sell high-ish on Pineda or hold and hope this is the year?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I feel like it will be more fun to hold on to him and hope this is the year.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Hold unless you move him for some hitting you need

9:07	Fat Albert: So is Luis Perdomo breaking out? Or too early to say? Everything looks good except that he’s a two pitch pitcher right now.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I’m told that Perdomo will be discussed heavily in this week’s Statcast podcast, so stay tuned for that.

9:08	Paul Swydan: His contact numbers don’t seem SO different from 2016 that I’m over the moon excited, but I admit I haven’t seen him pitch yet.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see the K’s drop looking at his SwStr%. I think he is just about ownable in all leagues

9:09	Steve: Drop Duffy for Godley or is that too aggressive right now? I’ve got some stable SP aside from Duffy.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’d hang onto both.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I would find a way to own Godley. He’s like Keuchel but in the AL. His GB% is near Britton’s

9:11	Fantasy Newbie: What is the outlook on Drew Pomeranz? I have stuck with him, but he’s not turning in any QS stats to speak of. xFIP identical to last year, but results have been poor. My tendency is to hang on too long versus to cut too early, but should I be giving up and moving on???!

9:12

Paul Swydan: I think it’s OK to move on. The issue is simple – whether it is because of his injury troubles or a trust issue, Pomeranz seemingly is the one pitcher for whom John Farrell has a quick hook. As a result, he gets fewer QS. So if QS is one of the stats in your league, he’s not going to fare as well.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d bench or move on. I think he’s throwing hurt. Pick of Godley

9:13	Theo: With unexpected teams competing, and with teams that were expected to compete doing poorly. Will teams like the Giants have a hard time turning into sellers? Do you expect it to be a sellers or buyers market?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Nick Stellini covered this last week. The Giants don’t have much worth selling.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be a buyer’s market. Some teams will make a playoff push after not being their for years

9:15

Matt: Not sure if you guys do fantasy – but, Dynasty league. Same guy won 5 years in a row (I know…I know). He’s in 6th now, and I’m in first. He just made a trade for Stras + Jansen, on what I believe was a weaker offer than what I offered for Stras + Pineda. That freed up his salary slightly. I had bid Yonder up to $5 out of his price range (prior to the trade). After the trade, he jumped the bid to $6. All that context aside, how do you feel about bidding $7 for what will be my third first baseman in a move based entirely in trying to block him. Is this smart strategy to block his progress, or just short-sighted and vitriolic?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Unless you have injury concerns for your other two first basemen, or unless they qualify at other positions, I don’t see spending $7 on a third baseman as a good idea. It’s a long season, and you’ll need the $$$ for something else eventually.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d do it. He seems to know what he is doing. It is a hurt him and help you move. Flags fly forever

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Especially all five of his

9:16	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:17	Borksadork: Cargo usually gets out of the gate hot. Any chance he’s lingering with an injury or has the age bug finally got him?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Breaking news, I am no longer in the ERA cellar in Tout Wars. Miracles

9:18	Paul Swydan: I don’t think this is true about CarGo at all. Three of the past four years his April wRC+ is 89 or lower. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=7287&position=OF&sea…

9:18	Paul Swydan: Hang on to CarGo. He’ll be fine.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Injury I would bet on. I think his home to first times was one of the biggest droppers from 2016 to 2017 …..

9:18	Cam: The bump in long balls has had people questioning if the baseball design has been altered. Could the increase in blister problems be indicating a change also? Or just a happy coincidence?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I think with blisters it’s strictly a “we have more info” kind of thing. I think pitchers are probably getting blisters at the same rate that they used to, we just didn’t know about them all before.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think coincidence.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: … and Cargo is near the same speed … actually a bit faster to first

9:20	NY Pitchers: Gsellman or pineda rest of season?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Always take the pitcher who’s not on the Mets.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Truth

9:21	Lynn, Rice & Evans: Paulie! What do you see as the Red Sox answer at 3B? Thanks.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Moustakas?

9:22

Paul Swydan: Let’s see how Holt looks when he gets back on the club. If he’s OK, then they’ll be fine with him. If he’s not, they’re going to have to seriously consider promoting Devers and letting him just figure it out on the fly. Trading anything of value for Moustakas or Frazier would be a collosal mistake IMO.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Moustakas is not enough of an upgrade over a healthy Brock Holt to justify giving up an asset.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d disagree … Moose’s D doesn’t slump

9:23	HankLloydWright: Why do so many people think Eric Hosmer is good?

9:24	Paul Swydan: He was part of the first Royals WS team in decades, and he gets a lot of RBI. It’s an attractive combo.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t get me started. But he’s an attractive white guy who has a nice swing. Great with scoops and looks athletic even though the Royals put Morales in the OF over Hosmer.

9:25	Paul Swydan: As for Moustakas, his D is great, I just think he won’t come cheap and the Red Sox farm system is already depleted as is.

9:25	Big Tuna: If I have Diaz am I panicking or holding strong?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I’m holding/only trading if I get full value.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: The Dave has yet to begin to empty the system

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Hold

9:27	Billy Beane: Did you see fivethirtyeight’s analysis of the fly ball revolution? They say it isn’t helping as much as we think. Sawchik is going to have a heart attack. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-fly-ball-revolution-is-hurtin…

9:28	Paul Swydan: No, I didn’t. TBH I don’t think we can ever figure this out concretely without a definitive statement from the league on the baseballs. And I don’t think such a statement is forthcoming.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I have a major issue which everyone hasn’t brought up. During the “juiced” ball couple years, minor league players see an increase in HR/FB while it was negative before that time. I want them to explain that anomaly.

9:29

Yosemite Sam: Honest (longshot) question. I’ve been getting super into MLB the show Diamond Dynasty and I was wondering if you guys have had any contact with San Diego Studios. They update the attributes of the cards weekly and it has become a whole new fantasy baseball obsession for me. That said, I feel that their rating swings can be a bit superficial at times, and you guys would be an amazing resource for them. It seems like a business relationship that would be great for both parties.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Have honestly never heard of them, sorry. Posted this on the off-chance that they’re reading it.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Contact Paul Sporer

9:31	Rated Rookie: Edwin Diaz’s demotion seems like a temporary move, right? RIGHT???

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so

9:32

Paul Swydan: Look at his game log. He’s pitched in 16 games. In 2 of those games, he allowed 5 runs. In the other 14, he allowed 4. That Servais punched the panic button speaks more to his managerial capabilities than any sort of long-term problem IMO. I’m sure Diaz will be back to closing soon. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=14710&position=P

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: But he needs to figure out a way to throw strikes

9:33	Paul Swydan: Sure. And I’m sure he will.

9:33	Paul or Jeff: 6×6, 10 teamer with obp and slg, should I drop dj lemahiue for Castro? Castro has been raking it and dj is so so right now

9:34	Paul Swydan: I would say no. Castro isn’t going to maintain a .382 BABIP all season.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you are rearranging deck chairs but why not.

9:35	Jay: Schwarber’s stats haven;’t been good but the swstr% is good and are his swing rates. Is it only a matter of time?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think so. Not everyone hits 14 homers in April.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, The Contact% is fine. The .224 BABIP is the issue.

9:37	Merkle’s boner: Why doesn’t Ron Guidry get HOF consideration? His numbers are not all that different from Koufaxs’ . Oh, and Koufax did pitch on higher mounds.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think the issue is that Guidry’s stats were an accumulation of a lot of decent seasons, whereas Koufax’s were more a few fantastic seasons. For example, Guidry had three seasons with 5.5+ WAR, and one with 9+. Koufax had six of 5.5+ WAR and three with 9+, including his last.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s definitely length vs peak. Mussina’s issue IMO. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1005124,1007124

9:40	Adam Schiff: If the Yankees are winning what level of prospect do you think theyd be willing to part with for help? Frazier and Sheffield? or someone further away like rutherford? Torres is off limits right?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: All but Torres unless he brings in someone like Sale. The Yankees want to win.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Would bank on it being more in the Rutherford vein. I would also assume that Torres is off limits. In fact, promoting Torres may be what they do at the deadline instead of making a big trade.

9:41	Matt: Is the new 10-day DL going to increase value of multi-position utility guys that might have been tinge-fantasy-relevant previously? Gotta have that bench guy to fill in for those single weeks of DL.

9:42	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. In a league with a thin bench, I’ve been rostering Adam Rosales because he has 2B-3B-SS eligibility.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, in some ways. I think the top guys will see a bump but most of my issues are from the long term DL stays, not and on-and-off guys

9:43	Gary: Hi! Heading to Boston for college. Paul, was wondering which sections you recommend sitting in at Fenway? I remember you saying you had preference a certain area.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Not behind the poles

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: BRB, kids fighting

9:44

Paul Swydan: Congrats on attending college in America’s greatest city. I like my seats in the Triangle a lot, but I think the most important thing you can do is to avoid seats in the first base-right field grandstand. The seats do not face home plate, they face the outfield, so you end up having to crane your neck the entire game to see what is going on. Might not affect you as a young person, but combine that with the wooden seats and it’s death on me these days.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Also, sitting behind the poles can be bad. Though if you pick the right poles, it doesn’t matter much.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: back

9:46	Matt: Serious question – intentional, or subconscious, does a longer question have a lower likelihood of being chosen?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I think it doesn’t matter to be honest. Sometimes I intentionally select the longer ones because it gives me more time to figure out an answer.

9:46	Minty: Paul do you want Ball or Fulz?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure since we have agreed to let Paul choose them all

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Low level Red Sox minor leaguers?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Fultz. For the record, I don’t have a problem with LaVar Ball, but the media would lose its mind with him and that won’t be fun for anyone. Plus Isaiah is all on board with Fultz, and may have played with him before since they’re both U Wash guys. And Fultz may be better too.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Sorry, this is a baseball chat!

9:48	The Union: How come Ray Searage doesnt make more money?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Because he doesn’t have a ton of leverage?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, no team as ponied up yet

9:49	Rated Rookie: Rougned Odor turning any sort of corner? Or, has his slump tutored him on the value of a little bit of plate discipline?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’m going to need to see him maintain this higher May BB% for a lot longer before I buy it as real.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a mess. Assume Adam Jone numbers and now he’s slower: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-home-to-first-times/ I think something is wrong

9:51	Matt: Have you guys ever thought of starting a site called FanFeelings, where you write similar articles, but use no data whatsoever and just go with that you feel?

9:51	Paul Swydan: No, because that would be terrible and no one would read it.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Except maybe Carson

9:52	Paul Swydan: Also, I honestly don’t think we’re wired as writers to just stop citing statistics.

9:52	Paul Swydan: True, Carson would be good to read in that format. Most of the rest of us wouldn’t be though. If we were, we’d just be general columnists at bigger media outlets. 🙂

9:52	Pikup Androppov: Say Rafael Devers gets 300 ABs this season. How’s he do?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Half a season? Major struggles.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Steamer has him down for .268/.310/.416, for a 89 wRC+, which seems fair.

9:54	Paul Swydan: It also would be a hell of a lot better than the team is getting out of 3B right now. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

9:54	Jack: I work at Inside Edge and we supply a lot of the info for Sony for DD. Could look into it as I am also a fan

9:54	Paul Swydan: Hey, thanks Jack!

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Jack to the rescue

9:55	BK: Who’s your favorite player of all time?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Pedro Martinez

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Bob Gibson. I just like him more and more as I get older

9:58	Matt: Jeff – if you stop your kids form fighting, then how will you ever know which one is the strongest, and thus most deserving of inheriting all that you eventually leave behind?

9:58	Paul Swydan: This made me laugh.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: The girl is the strongest. That part of the problem. She only 2 years old and kicks the boys ass

9:59	Matt: “I would read FanFeelings.” – Harold Reynolds, probably.