FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 5/21/13

6:06

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Jeff Zimmerman and I will be here to entertain all of your baseball-related queries. Chris Cwik will NOT be here, something about preparing to get married this weekend. I don’t know, sounds suspect.

Anyway, get in your questions. As a tribute to Chris, we’ll be running some polls on your favorite movie with a wedding scene. There’s tons, so don’t be mad if I don’t pick yours. Or, be mad if you want, it’s up to you really.

See you soon!

8:45	Paul Swydan: We’ll start in 15 minutes. By the way, if you have a tasteful message of good luck — or of warning — for Chris, drop it in the comments, and we’ll run them at the end of the chat!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi guys. Let’s get started. Jeff will be along shortly.

9:02	Comment From Tim Would you trade A.Jones and P.Corbin for M.Trout?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Probably. I like all three players, but if you’re going for it, I like the gamble on Trout.

9:03	Comment From asdfasdf Would you bench Cishek for David Hernandez now that the Marlins are going with a committee? Thanks

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’d probably treat this on a matchup by matchup basis at this point, and also take into account how frequently each has pitched. I don’t know that one’s situation is better than the other at the moment.

9:05	Comment From zack Whats worse: Harold Reynolds analysis of baseball or Delmon Youngs play of Baseball?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Reynolds

9:05	Comment From Kevin I have Jesus Montero in a keeper league. If I drop him, which I really want to, it could bite me in the ass forever. Do I do it anyways?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Yup.

9:06	Comment From Guest Patrick Corbin. Is he getting help or is he for real?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Jeff Sullivan touched on this earlier today – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-the-not-literally-venomous-patrick-corbin/ The gist is this – Corbin is not THIS good, but he is very good. And if you have him, then that’s pretty cool.

9:07	Comment From TK Any sense of where Jose Bautista will be in the OF re-ranking? I’m almost shocked to see him at #8 preseason, it seems like he’s just nowhere near the guy he used to be. Buying for the ROS or selling?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Last week, the RG guys had him at #8 as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/updated-consensus-ranks-outfield-2/ I’m buying for ROS for sure, with the disclaimer that he has had a penchant for lower RBI totals than his home run numbers would seem to indicate.

9:08	Comment From Derick In a dynasty league. Which OAK RP is the better player to own. Sean Doolittle or Ryan Cook. Who would take over at closer if Balfour went down/was moved?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I like Doolittle better. Cook prob gets first dibs though on account of his being right-handed.

9:09	Comment From The Sanabia Spitballs Just made a blockbuster trade of Zobrist, Bautista, Duensing and Gutierrez for his E.Nunez, Cespedes, King Felix, and Stubbs. Who won?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Pretty even, but just based on expected health, I’ll take the Zobrist side, as he is the only one of the four principals that I am most confident will play the whole season.

9:11	Comment From William ShakesBeer Wherefore art thou, Brett Lawrie?

9:11	Paul Swydan: There’s a better than decent chance that we all overrated him a lot based on his first taste of big league action.

9:12	Comment From Edge O With Kinsler on DL, Washington has said that Profar will split time with L. Garcia. I know Profar is the prize here, but could the Rangers discover they something in Garcia too with some more ABs? Is Garcia an everyday big leaguer someday?

9:15

Paul Swydan: He’s just 22, and he was 15th on Hulet’s Rangers top prospects list this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/texas-rangers-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

Having said that, oof, those BB and K rates. Not impressed by his numbers from High-A on. If you don’t have power, you have to be able to slap the ball around and hit for average and/or take your walks. Garcia hasn’t done any of these things yet consistently. Not ready to bury him, but not ready to buy either.

9:15	Comment From Robot Ump Do you think the Orioles are keeping Gausman in the minors due to service time, or do they actually think he needs more time to develop?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I would lean towards service time.

9:15	Comment From Rooby Roo Who is a better sell-low: Konerko, Pujols or hold both?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I would probably hold both.

9:15	Comment From Saul Pwydan Is now a good time to buy low on Yoenis Cespedes? I mean whats his upside?

9:16	Paul Swydan: His ceiling is probably a touch higher than what he showed last year, so I would buy low on him, absolutely.

9:16	Comment From Jaack As of this question, poll-science tells me that Spaceballs and the Godfather are equally good movies. There is no justice left in the world.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Why you gotta hate on Spaceballs like that?

9:17	Paul Swydan: You will be punished for your insolence! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXvecKiQmbk

9:17	Comment From Jake L. Buying the Uballdo breakthrough?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I’d sure like to – Ubaldo’s one of my favorites. But it’s gonna take me a little while longer before I’m ready to believe again.

9:18	Comment From Hint: Not Chone Figgins Everyone can guess who the top five 3B have been, by fWAR, over the past calendar year: Miguel Cabrera, Chase Headley, David Wright, Adrian Beltre, and Aramis Ramirez. Without looking, can you guess who’s #6? (After guessing, look, and see if you were right.)

9:19	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Alex Gordon?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Checking.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Wait, I missed the 3B part of that question.

9:19	Paul Swydan: And I’ll say Sandoval.

9:20	Paul Swydan: And now I’m checking again!

9:20	Paul Swydan: Nope! Kyle Seager. Well I feel a bit sheepish!

9:21	Comment From Jeff What kind if hitter is Jordan Zimmerman worth? Beltre?

9:21	Paul Swydan: That sounds about right.

9:21	Comment From Jay Teheran to the bullpen when Beachy arrives even if Maholm fades? Also, Dan Hudson in the Arizona rotation in late June? If so, how? Who do they drop?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Teheran to the pen or minors is probably the most likely scenario. I would love to see Atlanta make the baller move of exploring trade options for Tim Hudson. He hasn’t been great, but he should still have trade value, and he’s gone after the season.

9:22	Paul Swydan: As for Hudson, no, I think they’ll break him in slowly.

9:22

Comment From Phil
If so who makes the better stash, Hart or Teixeira? The forecasts like Teixeira but they don’t know what kind of injury he has – the wrist issue seems like it would effect those numbers more than a knee would effect Hart. Also, Teixeira is always a slow starter anyway and Hart has multi-position flexibility. Thoughts?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I’d go Hart.

9:23	Comment From Guest “Paul also contributes to ESPN Insider”

9:23	Paul Swydan: I feel like this is an insult somehow, but there’s no insult actually sandwiched in with the quote, so …

9:23	Comment From Crawdad Is a 25 UZR possible for Macchado?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Probably not.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Keep in mind that in the five most recent completed seasons (08-12) there have only been six seasons with a UZR of 20 or better, and they were all from outfielders. Machado is very good, obviously, but he probably doesn’t get that high.

9:25	Comment From Dr. K Has Pujols fallen to the point where I should really reject an offer of him straight up for Alex Rios in a 14 team mixed with 4 keepers?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I would probably take the flier on Pujols if that was the offer. But I had to think about it for a minute.

9:26	Comment From HellIinAGasSuit Scherzer and Tim Hudson are killing my team ERA-wise. Tell me they will regulate… Or is it time panic?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I am confident in Scherzer, but not in Hudson.

9:27	Comment From Geoff Would you trade Starling Marte for either Matt Garza or Yovani Gallardo?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Not at the moment, no.

9:27	Comment From lesser than average white male yoga pants or sundresses?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I don’t wear either, actually.

9:27	Comment From The othe black and orange team The best catcher ever is/was______?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Without running to check the numbers, I’ll say Johnny Bench.

9:28	Comment From Danny Boy yeah!!! oh, is Espinosa done? He looks cooked. Too bad he’s on my team.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I just think that he’s very hurt. I can’t imagine trying to do much in the way of physical activity with a messed up rotator cuff, let alone swinging a baseball bat professionally. And that’s not his only injury.

9:28	Comment From C Drop Viciedo for Eaton? I certainly could use the SBs…

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m not a big Viciedo guy.

9:29	Comment From newzooreview What is the most predictive stat for each,batter and pitcher?

9:29	Paul Swydan: K% for pitcher, and I’ll say OBP for hitter.

9:30	Comment From Crusty You know your audience… No 4 Weddings and a Funeral b.s. in the poll.

9:30	Paul Swydan: I told my wife about the polls. She said, “What, like my movies?” And I said, “No honey, good movies that just happen to have wedding scenes in them.”

9:31	Comment From D-man Just traded Matt Harvey straight up for Buster Posey.

9:31	Paul Swydan: That right there is selling high. I like Matt Harvey, but I doubt he’s this good all season long.

9:31	Comment From Xbox1 Where is Arenado’s plate patience? He’s hitting the ball quite well but is he a little overmatched right now?

9:33

Paul Swydan: He is, and he doesn’t have much patience. Nolan Arenado wasn’t a big deal until he led the minors in RBI when he played in the Cal League. But that season his wRC+ was only 108. And he hasn’t been any better since. He’s simply not going to be a star. And if his defense regresses to the point where he has to play a different position, he’ll have a hard time staying in the majors. Thankfully, his defense has been very good thus far.

9:34	Comment From Willy What’s a polite way to tell someone in your (public) league to stop offering you terrible trades? I was offered Derek Holland, Glenn Perkins, Nate Maclouth and John Buck for Mike Trout, and this is just one of many.

9:34	Paul Swydan: The great thing about public leagues is that you don’t necessarily have to be polite.

9:34	Comment From Klabeck P. Corbin for Shelby Miller?

9:35	Paul Swydan: If you can do that, yeah. I like Miller better, especially if it’s a keeper league. Which again isn’t a knock on Corbin. I like Corbin.

9:35	Comment From Gropius Who’s going to disappoint more this year from their pre-season projections: Pujols, Butler or Konerko?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Probably Konerko.

9:35	Comment From Michael Why do experts overrank Jacoby Ellsbury? Isn’t he just a tad better than Gardner?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Because of that big fat 32 homer season. Ellsbury has the potential to hit for power. Gardner really doesn’t.

9:36	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Who will start the ASG at first for the AL? Cabrera, Longo or Machado. Who should start?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think you meant third. And it’ll probably be Miggy. And he probably should as well.

9:36	Comment From Northsider I just checked out the picture on your LinkedIn page. What are you looking at?

9:38	Paul Swydan: (Checking Linkedin page) I’m looking at my son, who I am holding on his second day on earth. The hospital where my wife delivered had like a house photographer who came in and did professional shots of every newborn with his/her parents. It was pretty cool.

9:38	Comment From Geoff ETA for Wheeler? Mid-June sound about right?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think it’ll actually be after the All-Star break.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Quintana no-hitting the Red Sox through six. Ahem.

9:38	Comment From Poultrygeist Who’s gonna get hurt first: Lowrie or Berkman?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Well, I think Lowrie wins this because I read that he tweaked something at the end of April. Neck, I think?

9:39	Comment From Sgt. Pepper I clearly meant third damn it

9:39	Paul Swydan: Don’t get saucy with me Bearnaise!

9:39	Comment From Turbo Sloth You are as reliable in these chats as my Honda Civic. Not flashy, but always gets the job done.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I feel like that was a compliment.

9:40	Comment From Will Do you expect BJ Upton to wake from his coma?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Hopefully soon. I traded Jordan Zimmermann for Upton just before the season started in my Scoresheet Kings league, and was publicly congratulated for pulling off a heist. It most definitely does not feel like a heist right now, I’ll tell you that much!

9:40	Comment From Will Peterman Do you see Stubbs as making any improvements from last year?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Not enough for me to consider picking him up for fantasy purposes, unless it was a really deep league and I only played him against lefties.

9:41	Comment From mum clearly this chat is full of dudes if you all really prefer The boring-ass hangover to bridesmaids. do I sound bitter?? apologies. I do lof baseball.

9:42	Paul Swydan: I’m just disappointed that “Old School” isn’t winning outright. But I will say this — Bridesmaids was WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY better than Meet the Parents and I Love You, Man. Like, WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY better.

9:43	Comment From Rhymenosaurus is Arenado & Zobrist an overpay for Cano?

9:43	Paul Swydan: No. It’s not enough.

9:43	Comment From mark Who do you think is a better stash for this year Bauer or Gausman? Thanks!

9:43	Paul Swydan: Gausman.

9:44	Comment From Jaack I think the best word to describe your work in these chats is cromulent.

9:44	Paul Swydan: That’d be a good tombstone – Paul Swydan, perfectly cromulent.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Jeff is in the house!

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Hey everyone, slacker in the house

9:44	Comment From Paul Arrested Development in 5 days! Are you excited or are you the guy who said he hated it?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I said I got bored after season 2. Which, newsflash, doesn’t put me in the minority, seeing as how it was cancelled after season 3.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I like it, but not super excited

9:45	Comment From newzooreview Preston Claiborn pitching for the yankees. Who’s Preston Claiborn?

9:45	Paul Swydan: A pitcher for the Yankees.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul on this one.

9:46	Comment From Gemini Sano is just a beast. Do we see him at all this year prior to Sept?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Probably not. He’s only in High-A.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so, possibley Late may next year

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, what Jeff said.

9:47	Comment From Tom Speculative saves, Darren O’Day or Paco Rodriguez?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I’ll say O’Day.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: O’Day, but who knows

9:48	Paul Swydan: FWIW, the Bullpen Report guys don’t have Paco as top 3 for LAD, but do have O’Day #2 for BAL: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-may-20-2013/

9:48	Comment From Tom Josh Donaldson or Brett Lawrie rest of the year?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I’m actually going to say Donaldson here. I really like him.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Lawrie, not a Donaldson fan

9:49	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:49	Comment From Michael Ellsbury/Lawrie or Posey/Trumbo in a keeper?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Posey/Trumbo, because Posey

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I will disagree with Paul, but it is close

9:50	Comment From Jaack Is XBox One literally the worst possible name

9:50	Paul Swydan: I didn’t see, is that the name they picked? That’s pretty bad IMO, but then I stopped playing video games a few years ago.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: No, a sports team called The Wiz is the worst

9:51	Paul Swydan: Hahaha. Zing!

9:51	Comment From Geoff Taveras timetable pushed back now becasue of ankle injury? After All-Star break now?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Who is Taveras replacing? I will maintain that we don’t see Taveras at all this year as a starter unless the Cardinals have an injured outfielder.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Even further if at all.

9:52	Comment From zack Is matt Kemp overrated based on one huge year?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, to be fair, he’s had two pretty great seasons.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: No, he is just injured all the time. Health is a fantasy trait.

9:53	Paul Swydan: And during the season in between, he was dating Rihanna, which is enough to ruin any man’s sanity.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: The Wiz and fountains http://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-1996-INAUGURAL-SEASON-KANSAS-CITY-WIZ-WIZARDS-SPORTING-MLS-TEAM-PHOTO-AUTO-/181091337113?pt=US_Soccer_Fan_Shop&hash=item2a29e28399

9:54	Comment From Kevin Maas 4 MVP Sports team called the Pelicans is…

9:54	Paul Swydan: Great, I love it.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Is any team still called the Crackers?

9:54	Paul Swydan: There was one to begin with?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Pelican, fly!

9:55	Paul Swydan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLt6HdBsuzs

9:55	Comment From Jay What do you know about Tyler Logan of the Cards?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Honestly? Absolutely nothing, sorry.

9:55	Comment From Ajas Fahtid Yelich or Puig? With this year in mind?

9:56	Paul Swydan: With this year in mind, I’ll say Puig. Whoops, sorry Jeff.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Puig

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I am looking for old Cracker jerseys

9:56	Comment From Crawdad How about the Iron Pigs?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’ve got no beef — or pork — with Iron Pigs.

9:57	Comment From POTATO_CANNON Who has more value ROS: Profar or Wil Myers?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Tough. Tempted to say Profar since he’s already up, but once Myers comes up I expect him to play full-time, so I’ll say him.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Myers, not sure Profar will stay up.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: http://thumbs2.ebaystatic.com/d/l225/m/mPDwhJrgylmG5wKIAf2XI3w.jpg

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: http://blog.exploregeorgia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/digitalcollections.library.gsu_.edu_.jpg

9:58	Comment From Crawdad Two injured outfielders. They’ve shown their hand clearly–no Taveras in 2013. Sorry all.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Good point

9:59	Paul Swydan: When I say injured, I mean placed on the disabled list, and the Cards haven’t had that yet. So, I don’t really think they’ve shown their hand.

9:59	Paul Swydan: When they need to make a roster decision, then they’ll have to show their hand.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.coe.ksu.edu/nlbemuseum/history/teams/atlantabcrackers.html

9:59	Comment From Guest I think Jeff just photoshopped those pictures