FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/26/15

by Paul Swydan

May 26, 2015

3:21	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I will be here at 9 pm ET to talk some baseball. Jeff will likely be along as well, and we’ll aim to have our usual spate of outstanding disagreements. So get your questions in and we’ll see you soon!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody, we’ll get started in a minute.

9:03	Comment From Fake GM Hey Jeff! Could you rank the following players in terms of fantasy value ROS: Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Harrison, Lucas Duda, Jhonny Peralta. Thanks!

9:05	Paul Swydan: Duda, Peralta, Zimmerman/Gordon, Harrison for me, even though you didn’t ask me. (cries in the corner)

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi, sorry for the delay in showing up

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Gordon, Duda, Zimmerman, Harrison Peralta

9:07	Comment From Dr. Emmett Brown How optimistic should I be about the report that Rendon stole third in a simulated game?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Somewhat? It’s hard to know what simulated game means sometimes, but at the very least, it was a thing he was either working on or was encouraged to work on, and that in itself is good news.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Doesn’t change my opinion of him still seems to shake this injury.

9:08

Comment From AG3
Ruben Amaro: those were comments coming from a guy who knows he is gone by the end of the year, right? You can’t move forward through rebuilding with that as your organizational mouth piece…… right? Tell me there is some silver lining to his comments yesterday(and before for that matter).

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. The team knew exactly where it would be this year, and any positive surprises (Howard hitting well, Galvis fielding nearly on par with Simmons, Harang, etc) is only going to shine well on Amaro. I don’t think he’ll be going anywhere after this season.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: He is just fustrated and can read the writing on the wall. He dug his own grave and must pay.

9:10	Comment From Minty Realistically, are the Braves too far out of it to even consider bringing Peraza up before September, or is he a just past Super 2 candidate?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think split the difference. No need to have him up before the trade deadline. Use that time to showcase trade bait (or what qualifies as such on that team).

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see them bringing him up to see what they have.

9:11	Comment From Clay Anibal gonna bounce back???

9:11	Paul Swydan: The strikeouts are still there, but he has been very erratic from start to start.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. Tough to really tell.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say yes, but I don’t blame you for jumping ship.

9:12	Comment From My Display Name I always forget just how horrible of an announcer Sutcliffe is. He’s up there in Joe Morgan territory.

9:13	Paul Swydan: He’s certainly not my favorite announcer, but I did have the pleasure of meeting him once and he was a very nice guy. So he’s got that going for him, at least.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t heard him in a while, but I will take your word for it.

9:13	Comment From Ed Best stash? Medlen, Beachy, or Griffin?

9:13	Paul Swydan: That’s more of a Jeff question. Though I’m not sure any of them are actually good stashes, to be honest.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I may take Griffin if looking for a starter. I know Medlen will only be used in the bullpen and I think Beachy will also be used the same way.

9:14	Comment From Ed Pearce or Moss ROS?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Moss

9:16	Paul Swydan: Moss has been far better, so I’ll stick with him: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:16	Comment From KD NL only: keeper: Franco $1 and Gio $19 or Votto $27 and T Hudson $3?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Votto side

9:16	Paul Swydan: I believe that is a “for” in between $19 and Votto.

9:17	Paul Swydan: To be honest, that’s tough, because while I like Votto I don’t love him at that price, and Hudson is useless to me. I think on those technicalities, I go the Franco/Gio side.

9:17	Comment From Sad Padres Fan Are you available to play shortstop for the Padres?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Not this week, but my son’s last day of school is next Wednesday. Can we revisit this in a week?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: No, Ortiz could probably play better SS than me

9:18	Comment From Andrew Hello, I just want to take this platform to say that I am coming out of the closet. I am a gay man and I am proud. This is the first time coming out publicly and I wish to be supported by my baseball community. Thank you.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Assuming this is a sincere post and not some internet troll, then congratulations.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul

9:19	Comment From Grant Thanks for the chat! Any thoughts on Hutchison? Worth packaging him and other stuff for my non competing dynasty team to pick up Stroman?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I would, maybe try to get another arm to see if they pan out. Buck Farmer like

9:21	Paul Swydan: I’m not worried about Hutchison. His FIP- is even better than last year, and he’s getting a lot more ground balls. In time, the ERA will come down. But yeah, if you can use him to get Stroman, do that all day.

9:21	Comment From Sad Padres Fan So which team is Justin upton traded to at the deadline?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Don’t be so sad, Sad Padres Fan. We still have the Padres as 5th-best odds of securing a NL Wild Card spot. http://www.fangraphs.com/co…

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure. I could see the Padress being in the WC race and having to keep him.

9:23	Comment From Ryan Is Aaron Harang a good fit for the Royals or Giants? They both need rotation help, and Harang’s flyball tendencies make him seem like a good fit for the Royals’ OF defense or the Giants’ ballpark.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Aaron Harang is a good fit for everyone. Him being traded to the Giants though does seem like a thing that would really happen though, so I’ll pick them I guess.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Both actually. As a Royals fan, I would take him over Guthrie in a heart beat.

9:24	Paul Swydan: I think Jeff would take that half a ham sandwich his kid didn’t want to finish at lunch over Jeremy Guthrie right now…

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: True story

9:24	Comment From Ryan If you were re-doing the 2006 draft, would you take Kershaw or Longoria with the first overall pick?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Oooooooooh. Kershaw.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: If they kept the same health, Kershaw.

9:25	Comment From My Display Name Braun can’t keep this up all year, can he? I got him for a good discount, but I’m thinking it might be a good time to sell high before he gets hurt again….

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Shhhhhh ….. I need him to produce in the FG staff league

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: and you should sell high

9:26	Paul Swydan: Maybe, but that sounds so boring, doesn’t it? Live a little. Maybe he’s back for real, and at the end of the season you can be the one who got the steal of the year.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Like Kanye said, I’d do it for the glory. And by do it, I mean hang on to him.

9:26	Comment From hscer Did you see that JE/L Harper just pulled off?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I saw the fawning on Twitter, but didn’t see it in real time. Do we have a highlight link yet?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No, my kid has the Clone Wars cartoon on.

9:27	Paul Swydan: There are worse choices.

9:27	Comment From John What do you do if you are the mets. the offense is anemic. I know alderson is scared to trade any pitching depth, but geez, they could use a corner outfielder, a ss, and a 3b

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I wish the Royals would trade Herrera for Gee

9:29	Paul Swydan: I actually don’t think they need a shortstop. Flores is fine. But yes, the Mets need to create some offensive depth, if nothing else.

9:29	Comment From My Display Name Here’s a link to the video — http://m.mlb.com/video/v132…

9:29	Paul Swydan: What an age we live in.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: video watching

9:29	Paul Swydan: Also, Flores has been the 8th best SS so far: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:30	Paul Swydan: #windaided

9:30	Paul Swydan: That’s awesome.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: On the issue of Flores, SS is the new C position. It is an offensive black hole across the league.

9:31	Comment From hscer ESPN had a disclaimer right up front that Sutcliffe is a former Cub. It’s quite apparent–not in any open hostility towards their opponent, but just every comment is through a Cubs lens

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: He also pick Sam a few years back as the player he would take for the next ten years.

9:31	Paul Swydan: That reminds me – did you read Jeff’s piece today at The Hardball Times? If not, you should!!! http://www.hardballtimes.co…

9:31	Comment From Ryan McCutchen or Bautista ROS?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say McCutchen.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: McC

9:32	Comment From Rob Jays are +26 in run differential, yet five games below .500. Which one is the mirage, if either?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Both, I would tab them as a .500 team.

9:33	Paul Swydan: They’re +5 by BaseRuns, so yeah, I agree with Jeff. http://www.fangraphs.com/de…

9:33	Paul Swydan: They basically are a team where everything has to go right, and so far, not everything is going right.

9:33	Comment From Doofy (sorry got cut off) Can I move on from Polanco if Gose, Worthy, Arcia, Jackson, and Cuddyer are available?

9:34	Paul Swydan: James Worthy? I loved the real Big Game James, even as a Celtics fan, but I don’t think you should pick him up on the waiver wire.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I may to Arcia or Cuddyer if you need power, otherwise no.

9:34	Paul Swydan: But for now, if it’s not a keeper league, yeah, you’re good to drop Polanco.

9:35	Comment From Baseball is fun I don’t know if you guys have answered this already but what are your thoughts on DRA?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I don’t know if we have either. I think Jonathan does good work, and having another tool with which to measure pitching is always a good thing.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t dug into too deeply, but it is OK. Right now, I am refalling in love with FIP as I dive into the new batted ball data. I have an insightful piece coming out in a day or two on batted ball including HR and velocity.

9:37	Comment From rustydude Jeff, I’m really enjoying your long pieces on Hardball Times like the velocity v arm injury and the newer one on re-examining defensive WAR.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Jeff’s OK.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks and if I can get the data, I think the next could be even more eye opening.

9:38	Comment From Hank So do the Reds wait until after the ASG to go into sell mode – or should they try to strike early and maybe get a bit extra value for a guy like Cueto and/or Chapman?

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: They will wait

9:39	Paul Swydan: Until word comes back on Cueto’s MRI, his approximate value is 0.0000000000000000000000. And even if it comes back clean, he’ll need a few weeks to prove he’s back. So the Reds have no choice but to hold him. As for Chapman, he’ll be in high demand at all times.

9:39	Comment From Adam Reyes or Kang ROS?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Kang. You’re not going to believe this, but I’m dubious of Jose Reyes playing the rest of the year at full strength.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I would say Reyes. I will keep is job no matter how bad he struggles.

9:40	Comment From Brett Gardner What is the logic behind waiting until after the ASG to sell if you are Reds? What real detriment would it have? It isn’t like the fans don’t know it is coming, or that they somehow think this team is really competitive.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends which fans and the Reds brass doesn’t want to spend the whole weekend explaining why they sold off their best players.

9:41

Paul Swydan: Pride. They probably would have a really tough time swallowing watching Cueto and Chapman standing in their ballpark during the All-Star Game in another team’s jersey.

That’s about it, because most fans aren’t that stupid, and if they are, they will figure out when they trade them right after the ASG.

9:41	Comment From hscer Harper barely homers, then Bryant crushes one. Harper due up 2nd here – gonna hit it 500 feet

9:41	Paul Swydan: I love it when a plan comes together.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I pitty the fool.

9:42

Comment From soaktherich
The Red Sox signed a veteran Cuban 2B a couple weeks ago. Is this going to become more of a thing for teams that have blown past their international pools, especially now that it’s easier for Cubans to leave the island? It would seem like the real gold rush in Cuba in the next couple years will be their veteran stars rather than the young prospects, meaning that this was the exact right time to blow past spending limits.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Wait, why is it easier for Cubans to leave the island? I think maybe I missed that memo…

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: The current issue is the quality of players left in Cuba. Not a bunch of big names left.

9:43	Comment From Michael Dear soaktherich, the international pool only applies to younger players, not to veterans.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I was recently on a Caribbean island, and kayaking, and after a couple of miles, I was done for the day. I can’t even fathom going 50-100 miles on a raft. It’s unthinkable.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Also that. But Soak’s comment still stands, it’s a viable strategy, provided there are players around to sign. That is probably not something you can bank on happening.

9:45	Comment From Cidron Paul Swydan I was recently on a Caribbean island, and kayaking, and after a couple of miles, I was done for the day. I can’t even fathom going 50-100 miles on a raft. It’s unthinkable. But these are world class atheletes!!!

9:45	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I guess, but it’s still pretty amazing.

9:45	Comment From Adam So what’s going on with Mookie?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: A few of them.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: He is starting in the Red sox outfield.

9:47	Paul Swydan: The BABIP is still low, and he’s been heating up. I’m still on board.

9:48	Comment From Michael How hard it is to go 50-100 miles on a raft surely depends on the strength of the current.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Well, it’s a raft. If the current is too strong, you know, you could sink and stuff.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: What is this, a immigration thread?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I know, sorry. Back to baseball!

9:49	Comment From Hank When did Chase Headley forget to field? Slump? Possible injury? Seems too young for his defense to fall off a cliff like it has early on.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t watch much, but I always thought his glove was over-rated and his bat under rated.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Well, if you look at his statistics, he has had bad years in the field before, so he’s not exactly infallible. If you’re looking for something to be worried about, his conversion rate on Likely (60-90%) balls is down this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

9:51	Comment From Dave in London Thoughts on Carson Smith? With Farquhar being sent down, is Smith the best candidate for Saves if Rodney gets hurt/leaves after this season?

9:52	Paul Swydan: He was third on the Bullpen Report Mariners depth chart before Farquhar was sent down, so probably. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

9:53	Paul Swydan: As for his stuff, anyone with a 30% K rate and a 60% GB rate is cool with me.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: He should be the closer, but I could see his lack of velo (93 mph) hold him back …. but the Mariners are currently using Rodney.

9:53	Comment From Michael Since Paul is citing them… could someone please write an article telling me why I should trust these Inside Edge fielding stats? Some examples (Jackie Bradley Jr.) do not pass the smell test for me at all.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Jeff can speak to them more than I can. I think like all defensive stats, you need a large sample to trust them. What I find interesting about them is just how many of the plays get classified as routine.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure what you mean, Bradley’s numbers are quite good.

9:55	Comment From Tommy+Twinkletoes Dodger infield in 2015: A-Gon, Olivera, Seager and Guerrero?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they keep one of Kendrick or Rollins (probably Kendrick) around.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see Guerrero moved for an arm at some point.

9:56	Comment From My Display Name Addison Russell sends the fans home happy in the 9th.

9:56	Paul Swydan: And of course I benched him in fantasy.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Good for the cubbies

9:57	Comment From Michael Looks like Bad Buchholz today.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Four baserunners in the first inning,and less than 50% strikes. Sounds awesome.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I just stay away. The man drives insane with his ups and downs.

9:58	Comment From Michael Huh, they look good now, but I could swear JBJ’s stats looked different last year. Almost as if some of them have been reclassified since. I remember checking in the days after some completely spectacular plays and it seemed they were being classified as just even.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: They are at least a week behind as they recheck each play.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yeah, those stats aren’t updated daily like the offensive stats are. You have to give them time. Which I realize is annoying. Sorry.

9:59	Comment From Hank How long do the Twins stay relevant? Not that they should, but what would they need to add to contend this year?