FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/31/16

by Paul Swydan

May 31, 2016

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Let’s start the chat with a Simpsons reference. This is what I was thinking of when I put “Someone else!” in the third poll: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9g4YsGpO-A

9:01	William Wallace : Deep league, was offered Margot and Wisler for Guyer…I should probably do that right? Thanks

9:02	Paul Swydan: I would try to get a better pitcher in the deal, but I’d lean yes, especially if you’re not competing this season. Guyer is into his second season of hitting well, but he’s never played a full season and is 30.

9:02	Pablo’s Belt Buckle: Seems like the Red Sox really screwed up by not trading for Cole Hamels. Swihart has been mishandled and lost value, and Kilbrel has been less than perfect. Assuming they’d still signed Price, they’d be in great shape, now. Am I wrong, Paul, AM I WRONG?

9:04

Paul Swydan: Well, if you’ll recall, we never really got the full breadth of what Philly wanted. They wanted Swihart +++, and while some of those guys undoubtedly went in the Kimbrel deal, he has been just fine since the Houston debacle. I haven’t checked since last Monday, but as of last Monday he had 17 straight scoreless outings. And Swihart is at least back to playing, and showing flashes offensively.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Also Hamels is running a career worst BB% and HR/FB, so who knows.

9:04	Algernon: Is it time to buy into steven matz? What kind of pitcher is he? ace?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I guess I’m confused by this question, as I have always been buying on Steven Matz. He wasn’t great tonight, but he got the job done.

9:06	Art Vandelay: what, no Duffey/Surkamp choice for best matchup?

9:06	Paul Swydan: They JUSTMISSED the cut.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi, sorry for the delay

9:06	Buff: What are the chances that Fernando Rodney is still with Sand Diego and in the closer’s role after the treading deadline?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I would think pretty low, but you never can tell with AJ Preller.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: 33%

9:06	Paul Swydan: hey look, three-homer game for Mookie!

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: He doesn’t have a ton of trade value

9:06	Paul Swydan: Gotta love Camden Yards on a warm night.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi, sorry. Loose chicken

9:07	Paul Swydan: Should have had Adonis Creed track him down for you.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Someone besides my son

9:07	Paul Swydan: haha

9:08	Dill: Between John Lackey and Jason Hammel, who has the better Ottoneu SABR stats for the rest of the season?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Lackey, who was among the league leaders in Ottoneu last year but still goes cheap in the draft because he’s old.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Hammel, I think.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Disagreements

9:09	Paul Swydan: Xander extends the hit streak! Woot woot!

9:09	Tommy Lasordid: If the shift is working, shouldn’t offensive numbers, particularly those for left-handed hitters, be considerably lower than in the recent past? Are they indeed lower overall?

9:09	Paul Swydan: This one is for Jeff. I always forget the answer to this.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but there is a decreasing effectiveness of the shift. Some players it really brings down their numbers, but as more and more players are shifted, the effectiveness becomes less and less. Most the extreme pull LHH have been shifted for years.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: So the results won’t be as much

9:11	Paul Swydan: right. need to be able to remember that. thanks jeff.

9:11	Owen: MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOKIE. (I don’t have a question)

9:11	Paul Swydan: Indeed.

9:11	TheDudeofNY: I’m someone else! We don’t need a thinker, we need a doer! Someone who’ll act without considering the consequences!

9:11	Paul Swydan: Who said it? Homer Simpson or Donald Trump? (Don’t answer that, I don’t want to have a political discussion)

9:12	TheDudeofNY: Is it time to panic about Heyward’s offense?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Getting there. He (and Dozier) are really dragging down my Tout team

9:12	Paul Swydan: I don’t know if panic is the right word, but something definitely seems up with Heyward’s power output. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was hiding an injury.

9:13	Murdoc: What did you think of Urias?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I will look into it for my MASH Report on Thur

9:13	Paul Swydan: I unfortunately didn’t get a chance to tune in until the end of the game Friday, but it looks like we’re going to get another start from him with Wood hitting the DL.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Like Paul, I missed the game. Sorry.

9:14

Paul Swydan: Xander Bogaerts’ streak is now just the 21st time a shortstop has racked up a 24-game hitting streak or better. http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/streak_finder.cgi?type=b#gotresults&as=result_batter&offset=0&suffix=&min_year_game=1913&max_year_game=2016&series=any&series_game=any&team_lg=&opp_id=&opp_lg=&use_dh=&bats=any&throws=any&HV=any&game_site=&pos_6=1&exactness=any&GS=anyGS&lineup_position=&c4criteria=H&c4gtlt=gt&c4val=1&c5criteria=&c5gtlt=eq&c5val=0&c6criteria=&c6gtlt=eq&c6val=0&playerapp=oneab&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&c3criteria=&c3gtlt=eq&c3val=0&location=pob&locationMatch=is&pob=&pod=&pcanada=&pusa=&ajax=1&submitter=1

9:14	Mike D: How much better is this version of Kris Bryant?

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Huh, he seems about the same (goes and looks at his stats)

9:15	Paul Swydan: So, over the balance of the year, it should be better, but right now the drop in K% is being offset by a drop in BABIP, and so his wRC+ is basically the same. But if he can be this good with a 10% drop in K%….let’s just say I didn’t see that coming.

9:16

Chipmunknunchucks: Paul- I keep hearing Rich Hill’s name as this potentially MASSIVE trade chip, but isn’t it fair to assume most GM’s will be skeptical re: durability? He has already surpassed his highest innings total since 2007 this season and giving up assets for a PO run piece is kind of risky if there are doubts about him holding up. Am I crazy or shouldn’t this significantly impact his value for the worse?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, the K% and SB (which is not a surprise at all) are the only changes.

9:16	Paul Swydan: So, everything you’re saying is fair, but if no other good other starting pitchers besides Shields and Hill hit the market…teams are going to bid them up.

9:17	Gucci Mane: Is it upsetting one more person voted in the top poll than the bottom?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’ll be honest, I don’t study the poll results that much. They’re mostly a service for those who log in between 6 and 9. But usually not everyone votes in all of them, and the totals are usually off.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: One more item with Bryant, he is swinging and making contact out side the zone more which will drop his K%, but likely drop his BABIP also.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Boom.

9:18	Ol Sea Capn : Finnegan belongs back in bullpen. The sooner the better. What say the Two Pillars Of Truth & Wisdom?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree. I want to see the Reds try to use another AA starter in their MLB rotation.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Disagree. It’s 11 starts on an abominable team that plays horrible defense. He’s literally getting no help. I’ll cut him some slack for now.

9:19	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:20	Paul Swydan: Also, lol at calling us pillars of truth and wisdom. maybe Kevin Pillars of baseball truth and wisdom. MAYBE.

9:20	I’m no batting coach: It seems to me that the way Jorge Soler stands and swings, he’s relying on his upper body strength and his lower body isn’t being properly engaged. Any truth to my theory?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I mean, I’m not a batting coach either, but perhaps others in the room have an opinion on this? I have to admit, if I was as jacked as Soler is, I’d be tempted to hit that way too. That sort of mechanical adjustment, I imagine, is difficult to make.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: He does get his hips involved. I don’t think it is horrible.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Hips don’t lie.

9:22	Bear Claw: Kyle Barraclough has been walking too many guys (1.50 WHIP) but any signs that his control is/will improve?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Not without his K% dropping also. I wouldn’t change anything right now with the 24% K%-BB%

9:24	Paul Swydan: It’s early. I’m just impressed the Marlins have gotten value from him. His acquisition looked like a straight salary dump. He might need to be a ROOGY. His BB splits by handedness are extreme, but again, it’s a small sample.

9:24	Punch Out: Has Tyson Ross’s injury made it unlikely that he gets traded by July 31?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, because again, the pitching market is Flat Stanley thin right now, and will be this winter as well. But it’s probably changing the market of which teams are interested in him.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but he will need to begin to accelerate his rehab to get on the mound in the majors by then.

9:25	Cheapskates: If you were the GM of the Phillies, would you try to acquire Alex Guerrero on the cheap?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Yeah. Look at that OF wRC+ – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

9:26	Paul Swydan: Any potential solution is something I’d be into.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Guerrero could be a great pickup for a non-contender

9:27	Brave New Woldr : Does Ozzie Albies get called up by the Brraves shortly after the Super 2 date?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s running a .269 OBP in Triple-A, but what the hell, that still might be better than Erick Aybar. (No, give him time)

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure. I could see them either do it then or wait the year to get another season of control. They really have not reason to bring him up this year.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I could see him coming up in August when we’re deep enough into the season that he’ll retain his rookie eligibility in 2017, but he should probably learn to hit.

9:28	Springer am Rand: Does the timing of Fangraphs After Dark Chat vary depending on things like the latitude of the correspondent and whether daylight savings time is in effect?

9:29	Paul Swydan: No, the timing of the chat is set for two reasons – 1) to give people on the west coast a chance to participate in a live chat that doesn’t happen right when they get to work in the morning and 2) gives me a chance to chat when my kids are in bed.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: It is supposed to be every Tuesday at 9 EST.

9:29	Paul Swydan: I honestly can’t tell if that was a real question or just someone trolling, but I answered it honestly anyway.

9:30	tribly wearing goon: Looking to move Eduardo Rodriguez off the DL in a 14 team h2h keep 6. My potential drops are Giles (3 other closers right now), Iwakuma, and Snell. Who should I send to the wire?

9:31	Paul Swydan: That’s a tough one. Iwakuma, I guess.

9:31	Paul Swydan: He seems the least likely to bite you later on.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Trade Giles (maybe for a draft pick – get something out of him). I like the idea of a player you will drop for a pick. At least you get something for them. Iwakuma otherwise.

9:32	Scott: Who is the best outfielder on the Pirates roster?

9:32	Paul Swydan: It’s still McCutchen, but the fact that we could have an honest discussion about it is pretty wild.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: McC

9:33	Paul Swydan: Did you guys see the article the other day where Polanco credited David Ortiz for helping him with his swing this winter? Papi over everything!

9:33	APODionysus: What do you guys think of Eduardo Rodriguez’s outing so far? The velocity is still down which is concerning and he’s been leavign a few balls up in the zone. Have the Red Sox rushed him back?

9:34

Paul Swydan: He topped out at 94.5, and on a night where Orioles pitching has allowed four homers, Rodriguez allowed none, didn’t walk anyone, and allowed only a baserunner per inning. I’d like to have more Ks, obviously, but for his first night back, that’s a perfectly acceptable and encouraging outing.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t get the hype around him. He is a 3-4 starter

9:35	Paul Swydan: It’s Boston. Even Marco Hernandez gets love.

9:35	hscer: are these stupid “real people” Chevrolet ads running everywhere or are those of us in the DC area just incredibly unfortunate?

9:35	Paul Swydan: They’re everywhere.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: and horrible everywhere

9:36	Slade: Does Profar stay when Odor gets back? If so where does he play? Thanks.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I think so. They’re running out Ryan Rua and some dude named Jared Hoying in left field right now. The real question is does he stay when Delino DeShields is ready to come back? We’ll see.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he gets sent down and possibly moved for a starter at the deadline with 1.5 or 2.5 years left.

9:38	Murdoc: Do you think Ian Desmond finishes the year with a career best in WAR?

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but it will be close

9:39	Paul Swydan: He’s got a shot. But I’ll say no for the above reasons – there’s a lot of dudes to play on that team and if they don’t trade anyone, ultimately Desmond is going to need to sit more often to accommodate who the team controls long term.

9:39	Tony: Greater comeback: 2004 Red Sox or 2016 Warriors

9:40	Paul Swydan: Tony is trying to make me angry, it appears.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Red Sox

9:40	Stevo: This weekend, I noticed that Nate Jones of the CHW reveals the ball high in his windup, essentially removing any chance of deception. I’m sure he could gain some velocity, but wouldn’t it be smarter to hide the ball better for off speed pitches?

9:41	Paul Swydan: One thing you read over and over the more baseball you read is that while a guy might get better this or better that if you change his delivery or mechanics is that you can’t think of these things in a vacuum.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes it is smart to hide the ball, but it is still hard to see the exposed ball and make the decision.

9:42	Paul Swydan: What works for that guy is what works for that guy, and is what makes him special. Trying to homogenize his delivery or mechanics is often a recipe for making him less effective, not more effective, because he has 10-15 years of muscle memory doing it the way he does it.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Some guys can change on the fly, and are always tinkering. Cal Ripken Jr seemingly had a new batting stance every season. Most guys aren’t like that though.

9:43	Nick: For those of you who can, tune in now Mookie Betts back up with a chance to hit his 4th HR.

9:43	BobbMcPhelps: Odds on a 4th dong from Mookie?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I want to believe.

9:44	Guest: Any reason why fangraphs classifies Jansen’s cutter as a fastball?

9:44	Paul Swydan: We aren’t the ones doing the classifying. It’s the algorithm from either BIS or PITCHf/x.

9:44	Paul Swydan: No homer for Mookie. Grounder to second.

9:45	TheDudeofNY: Bigger fleece: the Shelby Miller trade or the Dodgers dumping Kemp on San Diego?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be Miller in the long run.

9:46	Paul Swydan: To me, it’s the Kemp deal and it isn’t all that close. But then we haven’t reaped all the fruits of the Miller deal yet.

9:46	Rays Fan: What’ up with Dickerson? He just hit his 9th homer but has a sub .200 batting average. Does he really lose 100 points from his average away from Coors?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: About 60 points is the difference between Coors and other parks

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO HR/FB% +0.046 +.057 +.058 +.106 +.049 +3.2

9:47	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. I think he’ll rebound eventually. I actually just bought low on him in Ottoneu. His BABIP is 48 points lower at Tropicana than it is on the road.

9:48

Paul Swydan: So, it’s not just leaving Coors. It’s also the swing of going to Tropicana. That’s among the bigger swings you can have. Let’s not forget that Matt Holliday sucked for a half in Oakland right after leaving Coors, and people were asking all of these questions about him too, before he went back to being Matt Freaking Holliday.

9:48

SkeetSkeetSkeet: Brian Bannister (works for BOS now) said on twitter last night that so much of MLB pitcher development was undoing bad coaching/training, that the public focused on velocity/health and teams focused on what led to production because public didn’t know better, and it would be 10-20 years before public understood what was going on now with pitchers. Thoughts?

9:50

Paul Swydan: I had the chance to have dinner with Brian last year. He is a very smart man, and I think he’s probably right about this. Until you get to high school, most of a kid’s coaches – unless they can afford to play on travel teams, and sometimes even still then – will be parents/guardians who volunteer and don’t necessarily have any training or background as a coach.

9:52

Jeff Zimmerman: Brian is a smart guy, but I sort of disagree. I think some teams tinker with pitchers a ton (Baltimore) and others don’t (White Sox). Now, the coaches can be wrong, but the pitcher got to the majors some way and sometimes those organization changes cause problems (see Arrieta in Baltimore)

9:52	Paul Swydan: SO MANY DISAGREEMENTS!

9:52	Von Schloss: Is David Dahl undervalued as a prospect when considering he will be playing at Coors?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think the hype on Dahl died down because of his spleen thing, but it is going to hit overdrive in a little bit. He’s running a 168 wRC+ as one of the youngest players in Double-A this year. Good lord!

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Test (I keep losing connection)

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Go on, my paragraph got lost in the interwebs

9:55	Paul Swydan: ok

9:55	hscer: Stephen Drew inside the park home run

9:55	Paul Swydan: What is that about saying about sunshine and a dog’s posterior?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: A broken clock is right twice a day

9:56	Dave Dombrowski: If you had to pick one guy to build a team around between Betts and Bogaerts who would you pick?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I would pick Bogaerts, but it’s a tough call that luckily the Red Sox don’t have to make.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts

9:58	Publishing Co: Scooter Gennett is finally taking a few walks this year. Are you optimistic about his future prospects as an NL-only 12 team league asset?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Not really, because the increase in walks has also led to an increase in Ks. Really, he’s just swinging way less – 56.5% swing% last year, down to 49.9% this year. That’s a BIG drop for one season.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: He better be useful in a 12-team NL-only team. About any regular is at that point

9:59	Paul Swydan: His Contact% is also way down.

9:59	Paul Swydan: But right, what Jeff said. He’s useful. I just don’t see him as any more useful than he was based on the uptick in BB%.