FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/6/14
7:53 |
See you soon! |
9:01 |
: Hi everybody!!! There are so many games on right now. Is this heaven?
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9:01 |
Mark Ellis, Kolten Wong, and Greg Garcia are all sitting in favor of Daniel Descalso because, “Daniel has had a couple of hits and Mark has had some trouble with (Floyd).” |
9:02 |
: That seems like a great way to start the chat.
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9:02 |
: It’s stuff like this that keeps me believing that most of the Cardinals’ success is the players and the front office, and that Matheny just stands there and looks pretty.
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9:03 |
For pitchers, what number is considered as good for K% and BB%? This page http://www.fangraphs.com/li… only has a table for hitters. |
9:04 | : In general, if you want a good baseline, go to our league stats page: |
9:04 |
: The interesting thing is that you can see that the average walk rate hovers in that 8% average almost all the time, while the average K% has continued to rise.
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9:05 |
Other than Gausman who do you think is the pitching prospect to make the biggest impact? |
9:05 |
: This season? I am excited to see Robert Stephenson get the call at some point, and I think Eddie Butler is absolutely ticketed to the majors unless he takes a sharp turn for the worse.
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9:07 |
: I think you might see Syndergaard up at some point, but I think it will probably be too late in the year for him to have an impact. Other names I expect to see at some point include Matt Wisler, Alex Meyer and Rafael Montero.
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9:07 |
: And hopefully Henry Owens in September? A guy can dream.
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9:07 |
Can a dynasty league survive with out a contract or salary system? Our league has evolved from a redraft to dynasty with a large minors and there disparity between first and last that seems to grow each year |
9:08 |
: I think it probably can survive, but I know that my longstanding league that converted from redraft to dynasty put a contract system in place with a floating salary cap that has worked very nicely. And from what I’m told, it’s a unique system.
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9:09 |
Will people stop asking when polanco will be up before or after he is given a cup of coffee? |
9:09 |
: After.
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9:09 |
Just got bailey for cingrani (he accepted before the dl news) good deal? |
9:09 |
: To be honest, I think they have similar floors and I like Cingrani’s upside better. It’s not a bad deal, but I would go for Cingrani, myself.
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9:09 |
Can Rendon keep up a .220 ISO? Rendon or Kipnis ROS? |
9:10 |
: Still Kipnis because of the SB impact, but I think that if Rendon can’t maintain a .220 ISO that .190-.200 is definitely in the cards. I think, as Jeff Sullivan noted last week, it will be interesting to see how Rendon responds when pitchers do eventually adjust to him.
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9:10 |
Hey Paul, what are your thoughts on Chris Sale? Im pretty concerned considering the frequent worry about his delivery and now the ongoing pushbacks from the original injury timeline. Would you consider trading him for Cashner and J. chavez/Kuroda? Thanks |
9:12 |
As for the timeline being pushed back, the White Sox have absolutely no reason to rush him. They’re not realistically a competitor for a playoff spot this season. |
9:12 |
Do you think the new CBA has helped or harmed small market teams like the Pirates by incentivizing keeping down large prospects? |
9:13 |
: I think that ultimately it shouldn’t matter. If you’re a team that is in the hunt, then saving that year of control should be of less importance because flags fly forever and hopefully you can negotiate a nice longterm extension if you become a winning team, etc. And if you’re a losing team, then you have no reason to rush the player.
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9:13 |
Very open-ended question, but which player that has gotten off to a poor start do you think is the best candidate to rebound? |
9:13 |
: Has to be Carlos Santana.
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9:13 |
What’s a reasonable expectation of production for Prince Fielder going forward? |
9:14 |
: I expect him to be roughly as good as he was last year, but I am no longer expecting the big year from him.
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9:14 |
Do you feel that Stroman can be a viable SP in Toronto and in the AL East? |
9:14 |
: Absolutely, and wrote as much for ESPN Insider yesterday (I will post to FG+ tonight, promise).
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9:14 |
under/over- 2 weeks til axford is out as closer |
9:15 |
: Over. Francona is generally pretty loyal. I wouldn’t expect him to axe Axford right away. Last night in particular it was questionable to bring him in – he had pitched in the two previous games, and the night before he had thrown 28 pitches.
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9:15 |
should we be at all concerned about bogaerts’ lack of power? I understand that power generally doesn’t peak until 25-26 but I was hoping his pre-peak ISO would be above .100 |
9:16 |
: I have seen Xander hit the ball hard a number of times, only for the ball to find a glove or April wind current. I think that if he is still going on this pace in the middle of July, then I’ll be concerned. But right now, I’m focusing on the positives – like that .390+ OBP.
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9:16 |
Robbie Ray looks good tonight. Definite stash in dynasty at this point, even if he’s not a regular yet? |
9:17 |
: I think that it’s fairly easy to look good against Houston, but I don’t think stashing him is a bad idea by any means.
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9:18 |
Yelich and Arenado both hitting well so far. Who do you like better this season and beyond offensively. Who has the bigger upside? |
9:18 |
: Arenado definitely has the bigger upside, just because of the positional scarcity. If Arenado can hit like this, or even like 80-90% of this, then he’s a perennial All-Star candidate.
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9:18 |
Which is more accurate, the Plate Discipline stats from Baseball Info Solutions or from pitch fx |
9:19 |
: I don’t really look at it as which is more accurate. I look at both and see if they’re telling me the same thing. If they do, then I trust that the depiction is accurate. If there is a large discrepancy, then I take a step back.
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9:20 |
: Also, remember that each has one or two things that it measures that the other doesn’t, so it’s not necessarily a great idea to pick one over the other on a permanent basis.
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9:20 |
If the current PawSox + Mookie Betts played the Astros for a 100 games, how many games would they win? |
9:20 |
: Probably 20-30.
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9:21 |
How concerned are you about Buchholz and why is the answer “very”? |
9:22 |
Though if he keeps ticking it up like he did in the last two starts, maybe I’ll start to be less concerned. |
9:22 |
Elton John or John Lennon? |
9:22 |
: Man, that’s a good one. I’ll say Lennon.
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9:22 |
Do you think Jon Lester is capable of sustaining his performance so far this year through the season? |
9:23 |
: No, right now he is at a 55 FIP-, which would be his best season by 16 percent.
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9:23 |
: BUT – I do think he is now capable of a FIP- in the low 80s, and after his 2011-12 seasons, that’s still a bit of a surprise.
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9:23 |
Should the MLB season be reduced? Lengthened? |
9:25 |
: If it should be anything, it should go back to the way it used to be – which I believe is 155 games. But I am fine with it just the way it is. I think if you want to shorten the season, you schedule more doubleheaders. I think maybe you extend the 26th man rule to a 27th man rule to get the players to not grouse about it.
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9:25 |
Why are you only taking red sox questions hey you know i exist too right? hey paul PAUL |
9:25 |
: Sorry Mufiins!
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9:25 |
Do you care that the Bruins are losing? |
9:26 |
: I care in as much that I have a lot of friends that want them to win and I generally prefer for my friends to be happy. But personally, no, I gave up after the last strike and never went back. My hockey interests are just BU hockey these days.
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9:26 |
Eric Hosmer has 0 HRs |
9:26 |
“God he sucks.” |
9:27 |
Bet you can’t guess which three names in the chat were aliases of mine. Also, do you like your steak rare, medium rare, or medium? |
9:27 |
Medium. |
9:27 |
hosmer hit one last night! |
9:27 |
: I bet Jeff still thinks he sucks though.
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9:27 |
Which currently rebuilding team — Astros, Twins, Cubs — is most likely to see their plan flop like the Royals? |
9:28 |
: The Twins. They don’t have the pitching. And you need the pitching.
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9:28 |
Tucker Barnhart |
9:28 |
: I’m not going to lie to you, I had never heard of him before tonight.
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9:29 |
Does the Colorado front office have more of a plan than we give them credit for? The Fowler-Lyles deal looks solid so far. |
9:30 |
: I think Jordan Lyles is rocking a BABIP roughly 50 points below his career average. Maybe that is sustainable with all of the groundball outs, but I doubt it. Definitely pleasantly surprised with Lyles thus far, but the Anderson gambit predictably failed, and now Chatwood is on the shelf. Not all wine and roses for the Rockies’ rotation just yet.
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9:30 |
Who would you rather draft: a high school arm with stupid command but middling stuff, or a high school arm with ridiculous stuff but weak command? |
9:31 |
: It’s a matter of scarcity, right? There are only so many people with ridiculous stuff, and if you have confidence that you can teach them command, then you have to take that kind of person first.
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9:31 |
: But ultimately, I want both.
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9:32 |
: As an aside, Noah Woodward’s piece tomorrow for THT touches on this exact thing.
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9:32 |
you cant have both |
9:32 |
: YOU’RE NOT MY SUPERVISOR!!!!
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9:32 |
Was offered Price for Heyward. Can use the SP & have outfield depth. Thoughts? |
9:32 |
: If you have outfield depth, then sure, go for it. Only so many David Price’s around.
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9:32 |
woah…….Kershaw is pitching |
9:33 |
: He sure is!
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9:33 |
Coming into the season did you like the Brewers or the Diamondbacks better? |
9:34 |
: Well, I didn’t consider that exact question before the season started. Here’s what I can say: I can say I didn’t expect the Dbacks to be good, but I didn’t expect them to be this bad. And I didn’t expect the Brewers to be awful, but I didn’t expect them to be this good. I would say they both seemed like 78-win teams to me. And the Brewers still kind of do, though obviously the big April is super helpful.
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9:34 |
What’s the worst ballpark in America? |
9:34 |
: Probably some Little League field in a rundown neighborhood somehwere?
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9:35 |
: Of the major league parks I’ve been to, probably Olympic Stadium. Although that’s not in America….so, probably Tampa.
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9:35 |
: Catwalks < raw sewage
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9:36 |
Would you recommend dropping Joe Smith for Cody Allen? Any other lurking closer targets? |
9:36 |
: Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhh, maybe.
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9:37 |
: Here’s the thing – Allen probably WILL be a closer, but Smith still is like half a closer. Depends on your outlook.
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9:37 | : And while you’re thinking about it, read the Bullpen Report: |
9:37 |
I keep hearing that the Cubs signed EJax as potential trade bait. Do you think his contract/results will make him a trade chip in the next year or two? |
9:38 |
: I mean, could they trade him? Yes. Are they going to get anything good for him? I sincerely doubt it.
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9:38 |
: The contracts that were more trade bait were like the Scott Baker deals. The one-year, two-year deals. EJax got four.
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9:38 |
Would Oakland fans really show up if I showed more commitment to the community? A winning team’s a winning team… |
9:39 |
: I think if you stopped trying to move the team to San Jose, I think more people would come to games, yes.
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9:39 |
re: jordan lyles and rockies front office. I agree that it’s too early to declare the fowler/lyles trade a victory for the rockies, but a freak injury to anderson and another unfortunate one to chatwood can hardly be blamed on the front office |
9:40 |
: Well, every team needs to have usable depth. Getting Anderson was more of a “catch lightning in a bottle” move, and I don’t think the team had the rotation depth to afford such a move.
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9:40 |
Most thrilling moment you’ve had while playing baseball |
9:41 |
: My final year of playing competitive baseball was Babe Ruth League (one step above Little League in my town). I got one hit all season. It was a groundball to deep shortstop. I guess that’ll have to do.
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9:41 |
Can I be Paul Swydan for one question? (not this question) |
9:41 |
: Well, who do I get to be?
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9:41 |
should i be worried about CarGo? And what should the rockies do about their logjam of like 6 mlb calibre outfielders? |
9:42 |
: I have been hesitant about paying full price for him in trade. If you already own him, I think he’s a guy you just kind of have to roll with.
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9:42 |
: As for the logjam, I think that their best course of action would be to find a team that wants to acquire Drew Stubbs.
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9:43 |
Sell now on Stanton in a league with no keepers, or is his hamstring gonna keep it together this year? |
9:43 |
Second, no, hang on to him. |
9:43 |
Whose rebuild do you prefer: W. Sox or Cubs? |
9:44 |
: I think the Cubs have done a good job with their draft picks, but aside from that they’re not really being all that proactive, so I’d have to say the White Sox.
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9:44 |
Billy Hamtilon figuring it out? He’s got an OPS >.800 over the last two weeks. |
9:44 |
: We’re going to need more than parsing an already small sample before we figure out whether or not he’s figured it out. Still leaning no.
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9:45 |
Paul, you get to be a man living under a bridge on his 41st birthday, wondering where his life went wrong. |
9:45 |
: I don’t like this game anymore.
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9:45 |
Thoughts on Jace Pederson peak? |
9:45 |
: I think you want to talk to Carson Cistulli for that one.
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9:45 |
Drop Joe Smith for Casey Janssen? Or is his ETA too far away? |
9:46 |
: This one I could get down with. Janssen has one rehab appearance under his belt, and should have another 2-4 this week. I expect him back by the end of next week.
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9:46 |
You should have given the guy who wanted to be you for a question the Stanton question, so then he would have had the heart attack. |
9:46 |
: It’s true.
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9:46 |
Paul, make sure Southsider stays on his side of the fence! |
9:47 |
: Look, I don’t have time to watch all of you people. That’s what the fence is for, damnit!
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9:47 |
Have you ever ridden on a sailbroat? |
9:47 |
: A sailbroat? Is that a sailboat filled with bros? If so, then no.
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9:47 |
Does MLB have an algorithm that makes my team lose when I watch them on strikeout.co, or is it just karma? |
9:47 |
: BOTH.
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9:48 |
Fredi Gonzalez just called a suicide squeeze with Gerald Laird at bat and Freddie Freeman on third… Let’s just say it didn’t go as designed. |
9:48 |
: Oh man.
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9:48 |
GOD I’m so tired of Gordon Beckham. Why is he still in baseball? |
9:48 |
: Don’t worry, he won’t be for much longer.
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9:48 |
Most thrilling moment you’ve had in a livechat about baseball |
9:49 |
: I think I was at the helm of one of these when the Red Sox won an important playoff game last year. I don’t remember which because my life is kind of just either a dark blur (sleeping) or a light blur (not sleeping) these days.
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9:49 |
Sailbrat: a sailboat filled wit brats. |
9:49 |
: I want to go to there.
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9:49 |
Pirates just walked off on a replay-reviewed call at home that was initially called an out, first time in baseball |
9:50 |
: Noooooooo!
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9:50 |
: Oh man, I tried to call it up in time, but all I’m seeing is the interview.
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9:51 |
Paul Swydan, he is/baseball knowledge man for us/but is he awkward? |
9:51 |
: Yes, he is. Also, that’s cool, thanks!
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9:51 |
: Starling Marte’s translator just said that Starling Marte wanted to hit a triple throughout his at-bat. I’ve never heard of someone who was hitting for a triple. You go, Starling Marte!
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9:52 |
: Oh, I guess his translator was Gaby Sanchez. I wonder if he gets an extra paycheck for that….
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9:52 |
Do they mob the ump on the walk off review? Or do they fly to NY and mob the replay official? |
9:52 |
: Oh, I see it now. That’s a weird tag.
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9:53 |
Are IPs attached to submissions, or can I get many responses just by changing my name? |
9:53 |
: Uh, I think I can go and check if I really want to, but it’s not in the basic information submitted with each question, so, the latter.
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9:53 |
I guess Starling Marte wasn’t ambitious enough to hope for a home run |
9:53 |
: He works hard for the money so you better treat him right.
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9:53 |
Do you think that the draft pick compensation incentivizes obviously weak teams to sign free agents to one year deals and then trade them mid-season? Wouldn’t a team like the Mets be better served if they had signed Drew and then flipped him for a couple of prospects? |
9:54 |
: Yes, but you absolutely can not bank on that as a way to do business.
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9:54 |
Who would be your absolute last choice given that you NEED a stolen base in one particular game? |
9:55 |
: Probably a backup catcher of some sort. Specifically, whoever Yadier Molina’s backup is.
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9:55 |
Best. Day. Ever. |
9:55 |
: Touche.
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9:55 |
Was offered Jose Fernandez for Robinson Cano in a keeper league, how fast do you say yes on this! |
9:56 |
: Man, that’s a fun trade. I mean, I guess it depends on how concerned about Cano you are. He should still technically be the best second baseman in the game, but he hasn’t played that way thus far.
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9:56 |
Who has the highest offensive WAR at the end of the season, Gyorko, B. Miller, or Lawrie |
9:57 |
: I’ll say Gyorko.
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9:57 |
Kershaw could become the first player in my lifetime to do this http://www.baseball-referen… |
9:57 |
: Guess not. Sorry.
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9:58 |
: He came mighty close though!
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9:58 |
Will jesse crain claim the closer role in houston by June 15? |
9:58 |
: I’ll say no.
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9:58 |
: Especially now that he’s on the 60-day DL.
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9:59 |
How soon after I’m out of here does my successor institute NL DH? |
9:59 |
: Hopefully never. I’d prefer to go the other way with that rule, to be honest.
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9:59 |
What is the percentage of fantasy baseball managers that read fangraphs/rotographs regularly? |
10:00 |
: I would say probably < 10%. Lots of people play fantasy sports.
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10:00 |
Traded Chris Colabello for Corey Kluber, will I regret this in the morning?? |
10:01 |
: Well, he homered tonight, so that’s something. But that is not a trade I would have made. Sorry.
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10:01 |
: Oh wait
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10:01 |
: You got Kluber?
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10:01 |
: Then I like it for you. Sorry, I need to learn how to read.
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10:01 |
Do you hate Big Papi Swydan???? |
10:01 |
: Why would I hate Big Papi?
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10:01 |
yes i got kluber |
10:02 |
: Yeah, then nice work. I don’t think much of Colabello.
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10:02 |
you dont like the DH? isnt taht what you said? |
10:03 |
: That’s what I just said. The DH was instituted to help draw players to the American League, and has served its purpose.
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10:03 |
So I shouldn’t sell high on either of Tulo or Stanton? I could use pitching pretty bad |
10:04 |
: I would hold onto them, but I guess it depends on your risk tolerance.
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10:04 |
What’s your favorite moving I star in? |
10:04 |
: I mean, by default it has to be Die Hard, but I celebrate pretty much your entire catalog.
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10:04 |
What are your thoughts on Fantasy owners that obsessively add/drop? Pisses me right off, but I definitely reap the benefits of their stupidity at times. |
10:05 |
: Agree, though if they weren’t obsessively picking up and dropping people, there would be more guys for me to pick up and drop, so I wouldn’t have to worry about their stupidity as much.
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10:05 |
do people actually like Bruce Willis |
10:06 |
: I’m people and I like him. So there!
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10:06 |
Paul id just thought id let you know that this chat right now is significantly more important than my economics final tomorrow |
10:06 |
: I appreciate that, but it really isn’t. Do yourself a favor and do better than I did in economics. I fell asleep in every class because I’m a moron and the lecture hall was always 90 degrees.
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10:07 |
Beard or no beard |
10:07 |
: Beardz rulz
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10:07 |
Do people actually not like Bruce Willis? |
10:07 |
: I guess so? I could see how college students would think he’s just some old guy that does crappy movies like Die Hard 5.
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10:07 |
I DONT LIKE BRUCE WILLIS |
10:08 |
I HAVE A BEARD |
10:08 |
: Damn, PS is all over the place. I think we had better let him study. I’m up more Bruce Willis talk next week though.
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10:08 |
: Thanks for hanging out guys. Hopefully Jeff will be back next week!
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10:09 |
: And good luck on finals everyone who is taking them!
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Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.