FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 5/9/17

4:40

Paul Swydan:

If you were to replace a letter in the word “FanGraphs” with the FanGraphs logo, which letter would you choose?

F (9.1% | 15 votes)

First A (25.0% | 41 votes)

N (9.7% | 16 votes)

G (11.5% | 19 votes)

R (0.6% | 1 vote)

Second A (31.0% | 51 votes)

P (4.2% | 7 votes)

H (6.0% | 10 votes)

S (2.4% | 4 votes)

Total Votes: 164

4:43

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7:05 – 7:10 pm ET matchup?

SEA (Miranda) vs. PHI (Eickhoff) (7.1% | 12 votes)

WAS (Scherzer) vs. BAL (Jimenez) (39.5% | 66 votes)

CLE (Carrasco) vs. TOR (Bolsinger) (10.7% | 18 votes)

KC (Young) vs. TB (Andriese) (0.5% | 1 vote)

NYY (Sabathia) vs. CIN (Adleman) (2.9% | 5 votes)

SF (Samardzija) vs. NYM (Wheeler) (32.9% | 55 votes)

STL (Wainwright) vs. MIA (Straily) (5.9% | 10 votes)

Total Votes: 167

4:45

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7:40 pm ET or later matchup?

BOS (Pomeranz) vs. MIL (Peralta) (2.9% | 5 votes)

ATL (Colon) vs. HOU (Morton) (6.3% | 11 votes)

MIN (Santiago) vs. CHW (Pelfrey) (0.5% | 1 vote)

CHC (Lackey) vs. COL (Freeland) (6.3% | 11 votes)

DET (Verlander) vs. ARI (Ray) (38.3% | 66 votes)

LAA (Meyer) vs. OAK (Cotton) (4.0% | 7 votes)

PIT (Nova) vs. LAD (Urias) (41.2% | 71 votes)

Total Votes: 172

4:49

Paul Swydan:

Which team with a .500 or better record but a – BaseRuns RDiff is the most for real?

BAL (21-10 record; -1 RDif) (55.4% | 101 votes)

CHW (15-15; -6) (0% | 0 votes)

MIN (15-14; -7) (3.2% | 6 votes)

MIL (16-16; -8) (5.4% | 10 votes)

DET (15-15; -14) (8.7% | 16 votes)

All of them are for real (1.6% | 3 votes)

None of them are for real (25.2% | 46 votes)

Total Votes: 182

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Paul Swydan: PLEASE keep voting in that first poll. I think we’re on the right track with it being on of the A’s. But which one? Agh!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Jeff should be along soon. He told me he is live at a ballpark tonight. I’m not sure WHICH ballpark though.

9:01	Hobbs: Have any worries about Correa? I’m in a 12tm Roto dynasty and there’s a chance I could trade for him or CSeager. Who’d you rather have?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Correa, I like his power better … and Hi everyone

9:02	Paul Swydan: I think Correa may always be slightly undervalued in a traditional roto league that counts batting average, and as such Seager may be the better bet.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I was late. A pitcher who never touched 90 was sitting 90-93 before I head to the press box

9:03	Paul Swydan: Right now, Seager’s career AVG is .308, while Correa’s is .275. That’s a big difference.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Either way, I am NOT worried about Correa. He’ll be fine.

9:04	Namo: Justin Wilson for closer soon?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Soon is now, apparently.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Hope so … did Detroit make a call later in the day?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I like Wilson, but I wouldn’t get too attached. He’d be a yellow light at best for me if I was doing the Bullpent Report.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I saw it around 6ish.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: ok

9:05	Paul Swydan: Reminder to always read the Bullpen Report on RotoGraphs.

9:05	Oddball Herrera: Turn the bar graph in the logo so that the bars are stacked vertically instead of lined up horizontally, top bar is the longest one, still retains the ‘data’ look while also actually looking like an F.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I didn’t understand one word of this. Maybe if I read it again…

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: For once, I agree with Paul

9:06	Paul Swydan: Oh ok I get it now. I don’t think I’ll be allowed to turn the logo.

9:06	Paul Swydan: But good idea! Once I figured it out.

9:06	Tom: No Red Sox left fielder has ever had a positive defensive season. Think its time to adjust the metrics for the monster?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Wait, what?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I see lots of positive defensive seasons here. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&t…

9:07	Paul Swydan: Oh, left fielder.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I would really have to study it. The Sox haven’t put great defenders in LF over the years.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Still see some, both in TZ and UZR eras. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&t…

9:08	Paul Swydan: That’s also true.

9:09	Paul Swydan: From 1941 to 2009, they only had like six regular LFers – Williams, Yaz, Rice, Greenwell, O’Leary, Manny. I might be missing one btw Greenwell and O’Leary. None of those guys were there for their gloves.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Someone is listening to another game without earphones in the media booth. I am thinking of going off on him.

9:09	Paul Swydan: DO IT

9:09	BasedBochy: How would you rank Hosmer, Belt and Yonder Alonso ROS in an OPS league?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Belt

9:10	Paul Swydan: Belt, Alonso Hosmer

9:10	Paul Swydan: Sorry

9:10	Paul Swydan: Belt, Alonso BIGGGGGGGGGGGGGG GAP Hosmer

9:10	Paul Swydan: Alonso may end up being better than Belt, but I’ll list Belt first on the past credibility factor.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I think that is right. I could see taking Alonso if you need power

9:11	caesar_solid: Is the value of OF defense changing because of the increase in flyballs?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, that’s a good question. Intuitively you would think yes, but I haven’t read anything that points to that conclusively.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: No, it’s not that many FB’s We aren’t even back to the FB levels from less than 10 years ago

9:12	Paul Swydan: Jeff knows best.

9:12	Plan: Arrieta? Buy low?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’m not going to, but I can’t blame you for taking the flier if he comes cheap.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea. He’s a healthy pitcher.

9:13	Paul Swydan: His Contact% is the same as last year, if you’re looking for a ray of sunshine.

9:13	Ri k: Who has more trade value right now- Judge or Bellinger?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Gotta be Judge. Probably a lot of people out there who still haven’t heard about Bellinger.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Judge, I think. It’s been more so far.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Chance Bellinger goes back to minors if struggles

9:14	Hannah Hochevar: All the people who voted “BAL” as most for real also voted for the BAL/WAS match-up because of Ubaldo, not Scherzer.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Sick burn by Hannah.

9:15	Poop Emoji: Is there any hope for Bautista? According to Mike, even his barrels are down once again this year. Try to sell for anything versus holding or dropping?

9:15	Paul Swydan: At this point, I’d be considering any and all trade offers.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I am not sure how much you will get.

9:16	Paul Swydan: He’s actually hit worse in May. His K% is over 40% for the month.

9:16	apples: Right now, who’s career start is more exciting: Judge or Gary?

9:16	Paul Swydan: That’s like asking me which dessert I’d rather have, cheesecake or ice cream cake? The correct answer is yes.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Career? after less than half a year. Good stories but let pitchers adjust.

9:18

Moltar: Thinking about non-terrible ideas to prevent marathon extra inning games, what about having all scoring after the 13th inning be sudden death? All runs are walkoffs, whether it’s the top or bottom of the inning? At least once the away team scratches home a run we don’t have to wait for the bottom half of the inning or worse – the home team tying and the game continuing.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I don’t care for this idea, sorry.

9:19	Paul Swydan: But you’re thinking, I like that.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: it’s ok, I don’t like any changes.

9:20	MIller Time: Justin Wilson = Yellow. Who gets the job then? K-Rod again? A. Wilson? Trade?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Tigers want K-Rod to close.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I think it’s going to be a long season in Detroit, A, and B, I would absolutely expect K-Rod to get another shot at some point.

9:21	troke: Tyler Anderson’s last start looked a lot more like last year than it has up to now — that is, more cutters, fewer fastballs. Is this him turning a corner? Or is there some other reason he has been lousy up to now?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Home runs have been the big killer up until now. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=12880&position=P&type=0&…

9:23	Paul Swydan: His walks have been good, and his contact% has been relatively consistent. He just needs to keep the homers in check.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Home runs seem to be killing every pitcher.

9:23	Paul Swydan: True.

9:23	Hannah Hochevar: Doesn’t the letter to be replaced depend on the logo that’s replacing it? IE, does the logo’s shape match that of a letter?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Well, yes, but that was the reason I did the poll. I don’t know that our logo perfectly matches any letter shape. At least not any letter in our logo.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: LogoGraphs

9:24	Paul Swydan: DON’T TEMPT ME!

9:25	Von: Bryant, Machado, or Arenado: who do you prefer if you are a GM building a team around one of those guys?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’d like to say Machado, but the knee is worrisome. So I’ll take Bryant instead.

9:25	Paul Swydan: You can’t go wrong with any of the three, obviously.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Machado. I think he may age better.

9:26	Jordan: Young guys like Conforto and Bellinger going to keep it going this year?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Bellinger probably isn’t this good, but I think Conforto can keep it up.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe Probably not for the whole season. Who does?

9:27	James: Is Chris Taylor fureal? He’s shown all the tools needed to be an above-average regular.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, he’s a real major league baseball player.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I’m going to go ahead and say he won’t run a .500 BABIP all season.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Good call

9:28	Paul Swydan: But he could be a league average player moving forward.

9:28	jrambo5: I’m holding Thor, madbum, and Britton on my bench. Someone dropped madbum, so I snagged him to hold.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I get why you would want to, but can you really afford to carry 3 guys who won’t play for 2-3 months like that?

9:28	Paul Swydan: That’s a tough sell.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: You may try to move one or two.

9:29	Billy: 10 team league, When/if this staff is completely healthy, who are the lower two on the totem pole: Strasburg, Carrasco, Paxton, McCullers , Hill, Maeda, Nola, Urias, Walker

9:29	Paul Swydan: Billy – Walker and Maeda for me. But maybe I’m just too high on Nola.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Maeda, Hill , and Walker.

9:29	Vic: Do you see Lucroy as most likely to dominate at some point this year to maybe in a down year? Season is 20% over.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Pass

9:30	Paul Swydan: First of all, saying the season is 20% over is depressing. Don’t say things like that to me.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Second, I think Lucroy will bounce back. His .211 BABIP is 75-80 points lower than his worst BABIP season, and nearly 100 points lower than his career average.

9:31	Paul Swydan: He seems to be taking an extreme contact approach thus far though, and as such probably more of that contact is not quality contact. I guess we’ll see.

9:31	Guest: Jameson taillon returns to the mound on….

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: ’18

9:32	Paul Swydan: Let’s not put a timetable on it. Let’s just hope he gets back to the mound eventually. Cancer sucks.

9:32	Rob: Is Jackie Bradley jr. in trouble? 3 straight games on the bench? Trying to hold strong over here….

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he must be hurt but haven’t read anything

9:33

Paul Swydan: Farrell says he’ll play tomorrow, but he also said that yesterday. I think he’s fine, they’re just trying to get Chris Young some playing time. CY had just 6 PAs over a 2-week stretch of games recently, which isn’t nearly enough. And with Betts and Benintendi hitting, someone has to sit.

9:33	Paul Swydan: And that someone is Bradley.

9:33	cut and dry: Hey! How would you feel about moving Wil Myers for Cody Bellinger in a 10 team dynasty league?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I would want more than just Bellinger for Myers, given that Myers has a longer track record of success AND is still young.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the move but I am really high on Bellinger.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Listen to someone sane like Paul.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Believe me, I love Bellinger too. I picked him up in the league where I could the second he was called up.

9:35	Germ: Hey guys it’s been said minor league swstr% is available now but I cannot find said statistic and this saddens me. Might be a dumb question, but where can I find it?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Hmmm…

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, follow this

9:36	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=2&qual…

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: You have to add it to your dashboard

9:36	Paul Swydan: Batted ball tab of the pitching leaderboards

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: view, it is the only way to see it on the a player’s page

9:36	Paul Swydan: Also do what Jeff says.

9:37	Red Triangle: I wish I could answer both As because to use it on one and not the other would suggest one of them isn’t an A, and the logo doesn’t really resemble one of the other letters so it makes it too confusing to deduce from an outsider’s perspective what it spells.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Damnit Red Triangle, now I have a whole other viewpoint to consider.

9:38	Big Tuna: If Wieters ownable in a 12 tm OPS? I was gonna pair him w Contreras bc he’s sitting a lot of games right now

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. I remember him being near replacement level in 12-team leagues. Why not just go with Contreras

9:39	Paul Swydan: He’s hit well so far, but I’m still wary. I guess if you need a fill-in when Contreras sits he’s fine, but nothing more than that.

9:40	Big Tuna: I believed in Gausman and got burned. Then I traded him two days before he had that start against the Nationals. Why does fantasy baseball do this to me?

9:40	Paul Swydan: If it makes you feel any better, I dropped Sandy Leon on Saturday morning, right before he hit 3 homers in 2 games. It happens.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I won’t even say the choice I made last week.

9:41	Minty: Think Devers or Gleybarr get more than 10 PA in the bigs this year?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I think there’s a pretty decent chance that both players clear that bar.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, over on each.

9:42	Paul Swydan: If they keep raking at Double-A … I mean, there’s no one at the major league level who should stand in their way, I don’t care how hot Starlin is to start the season.

9:42	Todd Van Poppel: JBJ dropped in my 12 team dynasty. Do I drop Hicks for him? Me from 2 weeks ago would have been horrified by this question

9:42	Paul Swydan: Roll with Hicks for now.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Really depends on if JBJ would be a keeper. Hicks is not a keeper.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Oh, true.

9:43	Ceej: Is Amed Rosario overrated for fantasy in an OBP keeper? Seems like a potentially very good real life player, but…

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Might. The defense first players can be fantasy irrelevant like Didi

9:44	Paul Swydan: Rosario’s OBP at Double- and Triple-A has been inflated by high BABIPs that he’s not going to maintain in the majors. Having said that, I still like him quite a bit.

9:45	Chuck N Chino: do you use Steamer (or your own home brew #’s) for ranking players — what about during season (ROS)?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I use our depth charts, which combine Steamer and ZiPS. I’m not smart enough to make my own. Or perhaps I’m too smart to make my own. One of the two. I think sometimes people who make their own projection systems get a little too defensive of them.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I use a three projection average before the season. Right now, I am mainly looking at playing time because of the depth of the leagues.

9:46	asabin: How worried are we about Clayton Kershaw? Not only has his best pitch become his worst pitch, but he walked four Padres. Batters are whiffing a lot less too.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m starting to get concerned. He’s earned enough leeway to have a “bad” month and a half, but if he hasn’t hit his stride by Memorial Day, I’ll be worried.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Off night? Could have a bug. 0 worries

9:48	Chuck N Chino: Shocked that STL is in first place?

9:48	Paul Swydan: No. Mainly because I didn’t even know until I read it this morning. It’s too early to care about who’s in first place. I’m only worried about who’s in last place.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: No.

9:49	Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: How hard is it to just sit tight and watch your fantasy team if you’re rolling? Obvs it’s fun to win but…

9:49	Paul Swydan: First – A+ name. Seamless combination of Star Wars and baseball.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Second – it’s hard. What’s harder is when you’re in like 4th place and you know you shouldn’t do anything because your team is doing fine but you’re still like “I should tinker, it’s not like I’m in first place!”

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Just don’t expect it to continue.

9:50	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Your polls show how crappy a pitching Night it is.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Pitching isn’t everything!

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Morton was on a roll

9:52	Murdoc: Is Cargo a decent buy low candidate?

9:52	Paul Swydan: For sure.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Sure

9:53

Jim Lonborg: I am fooling around in Photoshop with putting the logo over both the (first) A and the N with a tiny bit of transparency. I don’t have time before your chat ends to get it how I’m imagining, but perhaps you can picture it–three quarters of the A is still visible, plus the outer edges of the N and a ghost outline of the diagonal.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I honestly can’t. But I appreciate you playing around with it.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Really?

9:53	Gorky: Paul, what ballpark is Jeff at?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yeah Jeff, what ballpark is you at?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Eck Stadium. getting a look at Oral Roberts’ Whatley. Possible top 5 round pick.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Wichita State’s stadium

9:54	Paul Swydan: Is it named for Dennis Eckersley?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Or Aaron Eckhart, star of “Thank You For Smoking?” and “The Dark Knight” ???

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not sure who is is named after. Probably a rich donor

9:55	Paul Swydan: Damnit Jeff

9:55	Hobbs: Worried about Russell? Think he is ever a great fantasy SS?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Good, not great. I think playing time will be an issue with him on the loaded Cubs

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m a little worried about him, but either way, I don’t think he will ever be a great fantasy shortstop.

9:56	Paul Swydan: There was a piece recently, I think at BtBS, about how we lose him in the weeds because there’s so many good shortstops nowadays.

9:57	Paul Swydan: He’s a 3-4 WAR player. It’s OK if he’s not a great hitter.

9:57	Ontilt1377: First poll. Why not a vote for “none” ? Not keen on the idea. Don’t think it looks like it would belong.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Well look who’s the killjoy!

9:58	BoJack Horseman: How come you guys never put me in a poll during the season? It’s almost like all you want to talk about is baseball and not me, Bojack Horseman (THE MOVIE STAR)!

9:58	Paul Swydan: Damnit BoJack.

9:58	Danny Almonte’s Spin Rate: My Grant Dayton and Brinson for his G. Cole and R. Ray in an NL-Only dynasty (if they go to AL we lose them). Thoughts please?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I’d probably take the pitchers. I like Dayton, but his value is limited, and Brinson is still in the minors.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on if you need pitching now.

9:59	Joe Kelly: Can I be the Devenski of Boston?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Oh god, that’s funny.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably not

9:59	Paul Swydan: OK folks, we need to wrap this up a touch early tonight. Back at it next week!

9:59	Paul Swydan: Thanks for hanging out.

10:00

Jeff Zimmerman: bye

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/9/17