FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/10/14

by Paul Swydan

June 10, 2014

6:11	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is off tonight, but I’ll be here at 9 pm ET. To quote the venerable Earl Simmons, get at me dog (aka, load me up with questions). See you soon!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hey, let’s do this!

9:02	Comment From Jon N. Ramirez, B. Ziegler, J. Familia, A. Ramos– Which is likeliest to get to 10+ saves ROS?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I’m not the expert on this that the bullpen report guys are, but it seems like Ramirez and Ziegler are the most likely, with Ramos being the least likely unless Cishek is traded for some reason.

9:02	Comment From Los Polanco is 0-1, should I cut him?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Yup!

9:03	Comment From Los Benched Rizzo tonight because he was facing lefty killer Liriano. 🙁

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think at this point Rizzo has received the benefit of the doubt. Especially when the lefty killer is as erratic as Liriano is.

9:03	Comment From Daniel Who is your favorite non-superstar player to watch? For example, I love Gardner (despite my father’s insistence that he can’t hit it to the outfield). I asked Dan on Monday and he said Buehrle. Can’t be a prospect w/ insane upside. These are my arbitrary terms.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Seth Smith immediately comes to mind. I could probably go on and on, but in the interests of answering everyone, let’s go with him.

9:04	Comment From Brad Wesley If the Twins signed Morales to remain competitive, why is Meyer still in AAA? Super 2 has clearly passed if the Bucs have called up Polanco. Their pitching is a complete mess. What excuse do they have now?

9:05

Paul Swydan: For one thing, I don’t think these are mutually exclusive decisions. Morales was not under their control, and if they wanted him, they probably needed to act quickly.

Meyer, on the other hand, has 12 starts at Triple-A, and his BB% has increased from A+, to AA to Triple-A. So, that’s a good excuse, I think.

9:05	Comment From Bradley My name is Bradley and my dog is Jackie so of course I have Jackie Bradley, Jr. on my team. How concerned should I be that he is never going to be a fantasy asset?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Very. I think the devoted members of Red Sox Nation want Bradley to succeed, in no small part because he is — by all accounts — a nice guy.

9:07	Paul Swydan: But he’s probably on borrowed time at this point.

9:07	Comment From Andrew Joey Gallo – Any chance hes up in late August or September? Will he be a annual .250 BA 40 HR guy? Better or worse career than Adam Dunn? Thanks!

9:07	Paul Swydan: I am dubious on both accounts. Adam Dunn has been a very good player for a very long time.

9:08	Comment From Michael Brock Holt 2014 so far: 134 wRC+. ZiPS RoS for Brock Holt: 83 wRC+. What do you think of him?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I think he’s not this good. I think 83 is a bit harsh, but probably a lot closer to reality.

9:08	Comment From Fish Sticks RoS best fantasy value: Taveras, Polanco, Springer, Pederson?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Seems like the guy is going to be Springer, just because he’s already got the reps under his belt.

9:09	Comment From Hella ‘After Dark’ sounds so illicit…

9:09	Paul Swydan: That’s sort of the idea.

9:09	Comment From Stan A. Wood looks to join the rotation again around 6/28. From that time through ROS who do you drop out of Gio (assume he’s back), Kennedy or Wood?

9:10	Paul Swydan: If you’re just talking the rest of this season, I’d drop Wood. The Braves handling of him has been poor at best, and I would expect more shenanigans to take place.

9:10	Comment From Crisis on Infinite Molinas Think Profar’s worth a stash in a 10-team 5 keeper league? I know he’s probably going to be a great baseball player but do you think he’s going to be a major fantasy contributor next year?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I can’t see Profar being one of the 50 best players in baseball — fantasy or otherwise — next season.

9:11	Paul Swydan: In general, I think Profar won’t take off until Washington is fired. But I’m not holding my breath on that score.

9:11	Comment From Brandon In a weekly league points league _heavily_ biased towards pitchers, would I be crazy to give up a bench outfielder (that will rarely play) like Khris Davis for Brandon McCarthy? I love McCarthy’s peripherals, but I am slightly hesistant about his injury risk.

9:11	Paul Swydan: You wouldn’t be crazy, no.

9:11	Comment From Andy Austin Jackson and Singleton were dropped in my 12-team mixer. Either worth a scoop? Keeper league.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Singleton definitely is. Jackson depends on how important batting average is to you.

9:12	Comment From Fwap Do you like Jaime Garcia or Marcus Stroman moving forward? 12 team league H2H. Thank you.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I never like Garcia, his injuries have forever scared me off. Stroman, on the other hand, I definitely like.

9:12	Comment From The Chiz-nit Am I for real?

9:13	Paul Swydan: A week ago, his ISO was the same as 2013. Today, it’s significantly higher. If you’re looking for legit improvement, I can point to the reduction in strikeout rate, but I don’t think Chisenhall is going to stroke a .420 BABIP all year.

9:14	Comment From Jared Yesterday I traded Polanco for Marte in a 5×5 league. Of course, Polanco gets called up an hour later. Was it a bad decision?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no.

9:14	Comment From Larry Bernandez How bad is the Indians defense?

9:14	Paul Swydan: It is but a Lindor call-up away from legitimizing/stabilizing itself.

9:14	Comment From Marlins GM How different will Giancarlo Stanton’s line be at the end of the season than it is now?

9:15	Paul Swydan: As of this precise moment, he is at .303/.394/.592. I’ll say it evens out more at .289/.370/.570.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Which isn’t that far off from the U projections (I swear I didn’t look before I typed that).

9:16	Comment From Michael Doubront and Buchholz are both making rehab starts and threatening to come back. What’s the plan for keeping Rubby de la Rosa in the rotation? Can we get a PTBNL for Peavy?

9:16	Paul Swydan: They could definitely get at least a PTBNL for Peavy, because at least one of the other 29 teams will be willing to bet on their ability to “fix” him, but I don’t think De La Rosa is long for the rotation if he pitches the way he did in his last start.

9:17	Comment From Rated Rookie If–a big if–Alex Wood returns to the rotation for good by June 28 it is shrewd innings managment. If they continue to yo-yo him after that date, then yes, shenanigans.

9:17

Paul Swydan: No, it is not. If you’re worried about a guy getting hurt, making him a starter, then working him down to a relief groove, and then stretching him back out to starter length in the span of three months strikes me as incredibly foolish. Better to just keep him as a starter and limit him to 5 IP an outing.

9:18

Comment From Anton
Has Jurickson Profar always been an overrated prospect? Looking at his minor league stats, he doesn’t have much power, and while his low K rate will help for his batting average, I don’t see why he will every hit for a very high average. He can obviously draw walks, run, and play defense, but this doesn’t seem like enough to be a top 3 prospect.

9:19

Paul Swydan: First off, you need to examine his offensive statistics through the lens of a shortstop, and not Giancarlo Stanton or Miguel Cabrera.

Second, he reached the majors at age 19. That’s incredibly rare.

Third, minor league statistics don’t tell the whole story, and sometimes don’t even tell half of the story.

Fourth, a lot of his value is defensive value.

So, no, he was not overrated.

9:20	Comment From Bronn Re: Alex Wood. Thanks Paul! Exactly what I’ve been thinking about that whole situation since the start of the season.

9:20	Paul Swydan: You’re welcome! There’s been this prevailing thought that “this is what we did with Kris Medlen.” Which worked for maybe a year. I’m not buying. Sorry.

9:20	Comment From Lemmy What do you make of Chase Whitley’s success and does he have a chance of staying in the NYY rotation?

9:20	Paul Swydan: He definitely has a chance to stay in the rotation.

9:21	Paul Swydan: The key, for him I think, is the walks. If he can keep his walk rate that incredibly low, then yes. If not, things will get dicey.

9:21	Comment From Michael I dunno, I was fine with RDLR’s last start… thought he threw a lot of good pitches and a couple of mistakes which just happened to be against some of the best hitters in MLB.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I don’t think the “best in the game” caveat is OK. Every night he’ll face some of the best in the game….unless they’re playing the Royals.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Haha, Jeff isn’t even here to defend himself. ZING!

9:22	Comment From Michael Since I posted my question, Brock Holt has gone 2 for 2.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I inspired him.

9:23	Comment From Zombie Red Viper At a theme park I did the baseball velocity game. I was trying to win a prize for my wife and was throwing against an 11 year old. I’m 33. I threw 56 mph to his 55 and ‘won’ the prize. How embarrassed should I be?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Just win baby.

9:23

Comment From Glem
Paul, 12 team league. Does this look like a roster that could win a title? McCann/Votto/Altuve/Bogaerts/Machado/Heyward/Justin Upton/Carlos Gomez/Jay Bruce/Rizzo/Seager/Beltran & Bumgarner/Hamels/Cobb/Garza/Kennedy/Keuchel/Eovaldi/Doolittle/Soria/Hawkins? It’s a 6 by 5 with OBP added H2H. Thanks!

9:23	Paul Swydan: Wow.

9:24	Paul Swydan: The rotation is lacking after top three, and I’m not a huge fan of the closers, but yes, you can definitely make a title run with this group.

9:24	Comment From Guest Where did J.J. Hardy’s power go to?

9:24	Paul Swydan: The same place all the cowboys went?

9:25	Comment From Lemmy Is Kemp for Marte an even trade?

9:25	Paul Swydan: No, Marte is much better at this point, especially with Kemp not playing everyday.

9:26	Comment From Bradley If you had choice in keeper league, which duo would you choose polanco and taveras or springer and ventura?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Always take the two hitters. Especially when the pitcher has already had arm trouble.

9:26	Comment From Slow Mobius Kendrys Morales will play his final game of the season with: the Twins, or the field?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Twins.

9:26	Comment From Bradley spurs up 10 if anyone cares

9:27	Paul Swydan: It’s not that I don’t care, it’s just that I don’t care enough,

9:27	Comment From Larry Bernandez How long until a Lindor call-up?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Cabrera is going to have play really poorly for Lindor to get up before September. It’s an odd case. Cabrera is almost certainly gone at season’s end, but they are still seemingly committed to playing him for as long as possible. I don’t get it. I think Lindor is better right now.

9:28	Comment From Bradley pts league 10 teams, someone dropped matt holiday, should I drop desmond Jennings or marte for him, or neither

9:28	Paul Swydan: I don’t put much faith in Jennings, and would almost certainly rather have Holliday than him.

9:29	Comment From Vliet With Cargo and Cuddyer on the DL does Dickerson finally get regular playing time of is Stubbs the beneficiary of that situation

9:29	Paul Swydan: It seems like they’re pretty committed to rotating Barnes and Stubbs into the lineup on a regular basis.

9:29	Comment From Lemmy Does Kole Calhoun win that starting gig back or does Cowgil continue to steal ABs from him?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I think eventually Calhoun gets it back, but I don’t see it happening overnight.

9:30	Comment From Ruggs who do you see as making a more significant impact in 2014, the Twins’ Meyer or Marlins’ Heaney

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’d say Heaney. I think the Marlins are more aggressive in promoting their guys, and I think they’ll hang around longer than will the Twins.

9:31	Comment From Lemmy Thoughts on the USMNT making it out of the group of death?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I really, really, really, really, really, really want them to?

9:32

Paul Swydan: I don’t know. It’s all on the Ghana game. If they can beat Ghana, and play Portugal and Germany to draws, then there’s four points and that’s probably enough to survive, assuming there is a winner and loser to Germany v. Portugal. But that’s a lot of ifs. All I know is I can’t wait. I love the World Cup.

9:32	Comment From Lemmy Argentina v. Brazil final….who wins?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I really can’t say with any confidence. I like the World Cup because it involves nations, but I really don’t follow soccer with any regularity. I just like the World Cup. Is that weird?

9:33	Comment From Aaron What do you think the Indians could get for Asdrubal Cabrera? I feel they could use another starter

9:34	Paul Swydan: They absolutely need another starter. Unfortunately, I don’t see them getting one in exchange for Cabrera unless a team’s starting shortstop suffers a season-ending injury. Cabrera just isn’t that good.

9:34	Comment From Power Hour If these 3 were all healthy who would you take out of Rasmus, C. Hart or Ackley?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Probably Rasmus.

9:34	Comment From Boo Given Tavares slow start is he demoted when Adams returns?

9:34	Paul Swydan: It’s 39 plate appearances. Yogi Berra was demoted to the minors in his second season. Let’s all just calm down!

9:35	Comment From snid Boxberger have much of a shot at closing in Balt?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’m under the impression that Boxberger is on the Rays, so I’ll say no. But maybe on the Rays he does?

9:35	Comment From Guest I’ve read from multiple fangraph’s writers say that Tulow is an injury candidate. I’ve read the injury research on pitchers. Has anything been established as far as the variables that help project injury in pos players?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I’m sure Jeff has established baselines and things like that, but I don’t know about prevention. In general, it seems like it would be much tougher because there are a myriad of injuries for position players, while pitcher injuries are generally focused on the elbow and shoulder.

9:37	Comment From Commander Adama What is Oswaldo Arcias upside?

9:37	Paul Swydan: 2.5 win player? I was buying last year, but I’m off the bandwagon.

9:37	Comment From Michael Here in Europe we call a group the “group of death” if there are more than 2 serious contenders in it. A group with Germany, Portugal and 2 countries noone thought would make the KO stage anyway doesn’t qualify.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Yeah, the Belgium group is more appropriate for the moniker, yes?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Also, I feel like FIFA people go out of their way to be deferential/nice to the US because they want Coke and Budweiser etc to be World Cup sponsors.

9:39	Comment From Vliet He has decent numbers, Why the leap from the Arcia bandwagon?

9:41

Paul Swydan: He has a .297 OBP and a 27.0% K %. He also isn’t hitting for average. The slugging percentage screams fluky good week when compared to his numbers from last season. He also has very little – if any – defensive and baserunning value. And if you already have limited baserunning value at age 23, oof.

9:41	Comment From Guest FIFA wants USA sponsors so badly, that they routinely assign referees to screw over the US in World Cup matches.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Well maybe that’s all part of the conspiracy! Play nice at the executive level and then assign dirty refs on the field level. IT’S DIABOLICAL I TELL YOU!!!!!!

9:42	Comment From Matt do you see anyone hitter over 45 homers or .345 this seaosn

9:43	Paul Swydan: Not sure why you picked .345, but no, I don’t see anyone doing that. 45 homers, on the other hand, I could see. Wouldn’t rule out E5, Abreu, Tulo or Stanton.

9:44	Comment From Vliet Thanks for the critique.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’m not trying to be a dick about it, I just don’t see him as a multiple All-Star candidate or anything like that.

9:45	Comment From Matt anyone hit over 130 RBIs

9:45	Paul Swydan: I think you have the wrong chat.

9:45	Comment From Guest Concerned about Rosenthal’s inconsistency? Any clue who is a 2nd option? (Watching him hit Jerry Sands to load bases in 8th…)

9:46	Paul Swydan: I would imagine Motte or Martinez is next in line, but no, I’m not overly concerned. He still has a 75 FIP-. He needs to cut down the walks, but I think he can.

9:46	Comment From Lemmy Is it just a matter of time before Cruz gets PED suspension # 2?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Not willing to go there, sorry.

9:47	Comment From Michael “Concerned about Rosenthal’s inconsistency?” If you mean the FOX reporter then yes.

9:47	Paul Swydan: No way, Ken Rosenthal is the best. The best, Jerry, the best!

9:48	Comment From Spartacus 2 parter–will Kris Bryant get called up to The Show in September, and would it make any sense for the Cubs to do so?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I think he might, and I think it would. He doesn’t have much left to prove at Double-A, it seems. Fun fact – if you type in “Kris B” into our search, only three names come up. One is Kris Bryant, and one is Kris Benson. I find this amusing.

9:49	Comment From Slow Mobius Is it worth it to rush Lindor’s bat just to have him help defensively now?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Indians are currently 29th of 30 in UZR/150, and have playoff aspirations. http://www.fangraphs.com/le… So….yes.

9:50	Comment From Gaedel Castro How do you feel about Machado in a keeper fantasy-wise? His temper/dickery make him an extra risk, or does he become a Braun love-to-hate-and-benefit-from-his-production guy? Thanks for the chat, btw.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I don’t think Machado is a risk because of his temper or anything like that. I think that’s a bigg stretch. I also however don’t think much of him as a keeper in a fantasy league, unless defense is somehow a factor.

9:51	Comment From Lemmy 1st closer dealt this year…Street, Cishek, Paps, Hawkins???

9:52	Paul Swydan: Well it absolutely should be Papelbon, but I think of the four, Street is actually the most likely to be dealt.

9:52	Comment From Masd Is Manny Ramirez having a positive effect on Javier Baez in AAA? Is that why they brought him in in the first place? To mentor him? That seems crazy…

9:52	Paul Swydan: I don’t think there’s any way I can know the truth about this, and I’m certainly not going to try and judge it by a few weeks of plate appearances.

9:52	Comment From Puigs Boat captain Quick, 3 hitters you would try and sell high on Lonnie for; or do you believe in this a little?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Seems like you could probably do well to trade Lonnie for Beltre.

9:53	Comment From Lemmy Thoughts on Pomeranz finally reaching his potential? OAK seems like a perfect fit and once I saw that, he hit my radar immediately.

9:54	Paul Swydan: One, its a good ballpark for him. But two, the Rockies wanted him to be perfect, and when he wasn’t perfect they didn’t handle it well. I feel like they are going to regret that trade a lot, if they don’t already.

9:54	Comment From Dave Thoughts on TB closer situation? Thanks.

9:54	Paul Swydan: My feeling is that I don’t want any part of chasing saves on that team. A) They’re not good. B) Maddon is a crazy person, and trying to thinka long with him is a recipe for madness.

9:54	Comment From Michael If you were Ben Cherington, what would your plan be for Edward Mujica?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Waiver wire?

9:54	Comment From snid Are you familiar with Wormtown?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I am not. Is it a subterranean zoo of some sort?

9:55	Comment From Guest i had Lonnie on my bench last night…… i’m pissed

9:55	Paul Swydan: Take solace in the fact that you weren’t the only one.

9:55	Comment From Sad Mets fan What type of player would you look for in return for Matt Harvey in a keeper league? Drafted him in the 12th round like a boss.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I would still ask for a top shelf player or players for him.

9:56	Comment From Lemmy Do the Redsox really trust Betts in CF for the sake of adding offense?

9:56	Paul Swydan: He played center in high school and is a tremendous athlete, so I don’t see the problem.

9:56	Comment From snid Wormtown = Worcester

9:57	Paul Swydan: Oh I’ve never heard it called that before. In my defense, I try to spend as little time in Worcester as possible.

9:57	Comment From Boo Is Grilli secure in the closer role of is Melancon just waiting for a breakdown?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Physical breakdown. Otherwise I think Grilli is safe.

9:57	Comment From Bradley would you keep Harvey over bailey or iwaukuma next year

9:57	Paul Swydan: Absolutely.

9:58	Comment From Rat King offered Bryce Harper straight up for Alex Cobb, is it an easy yes? (head-to-head weekly 12 team redraft league, 6×6 + OPS + QGS)

9:59	Paul Swydan: Assuming you would be the one getting Harper … maybe. He is out for another few weeks. Less of a risk because it’s a SP in exchange, but you have to consider that. Especially because his return isn’t guaranteed – if he missed another two-three weeks that’s a big risk.

9:59	Comment From Red Are you aware of any ‘trends’ regarding SPs coming back from Tommy John? For instance, what should we expect from Bundy? Thanks for the chat.