FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/11/13
| 6:04 |
: Hi everybody!
Chris, Jeff AND myself will be live with you tonight at 9 pm ET to cram some baseball down your cramholes. In the meantime, I’ll get up some polls, and you post some questions and comments. It’s just crazy enough to work. See you soon! |
| 9:01 |
: Six shutout innings from Gerrit Cole > seven walks from Jon Lester.
Let’s light this turkey. |
| 9:01 |
: Hi, everyone. Been a while.
|
| 9:01 |
: Chris is married now you guys. Tell Chris congratulations!
|
| 9:01 |
: I am working on a poll, will jump in soon.
|
| 9:02 |
: Btw, 56% of you are pissing me off. Man of Steel looks AMAZING.
|
| 9:02 |
Let’s all insult the Mariners for calling up Zunino! Boy they are really desperate |
| 9:02 |
: I made the mistake of picking up Zunino in a fantasy league before seeing his stats. Kind of agree with Dave Cameron, who tweeted that people are trying to save their jobs with his promotion.
|
| 9:03 |
: Oh man, if only you guys could have heard Cameron and Sullivan complain about this on our conference call. It was like this, except in my ear balls:
http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/06/11/mariners-call-up-mike-zunino/ |
| 9:04 |
Is Matt Kemp still and elite player or is he done? |
| 9:04 |
: I think this is poll worthy.
|
| 9:05 |
: I would like to see one more season from him, but it is not looking good.
|
| 9:05 |
: Well, I’m more optimistic than Jeff
|
| 9:06 |
: On the one hand, he has two seasons with 5.0 WAR or higher.
On the other hand, he has three full seasons of ball with a 3.2 WAR or lower. And that’s not counting this year. |
| 9:06 |
Can this be the only comment that you post tonight about this Puig guy? I am sick of hearing only about him already |
| 9:06 |
: No, probably not. Sorry. I like me some Major Puig Baseball.
|
| 9:06 |
: Who?
|
| 9:07 |
Please some fantasy advise. I have collection of underachievers this year (heyward, zobrist, hosmer, vmart) and am rock bottom in power categories. Also have mcutch and posey. Do i ride this out and hope for some of these guys to come around or bust it up in a fire sale? Who do i hold on to? |
| 9:07 |
: It’s funny to look at what he’s doing now and read his initial scouting reports. Something has to give. Either he’s going to continue to be way better than others expected, or he’s going to revert.
|
| 9:08 |
: Metsa – I would be happy to cut bait on Heyward, Hosmer and Vmart. Not sure how much you get, but I’m comfortable thinking they’re not going to be great this year.
|
| 9:08 |
: I would look to deal Hosmer or VMart, but you won’t get anything great. I would still hold most of those guys because you won’t get good enough value if you try and deal them.
|
| 9:08 |
: Cole loses his shutout w one out in the seventh.
|
| 9:08 |
: You could smartly bust it up. Zobrist will be wanted for flexibility.
|
| 9:09 |
married people don’t get opinions, Chris. Congratulations |
| 9:09 |
: I concur.
|
| 9:09 |
: Haha, true fact!
|
| 9:09 |
: As if I had them before
|
| 9:09 |
Did she take your last name, Chris? If so she’ll spend the rest of her life explaining how to say it. Good luck to her, too. |
| 9:09 |
Is Chris whipped yet? |
| 9:10 |
: She did. Her last name was something very common, so she was ok with the change. Knew what she was getting into.
|
| 9:10 |
: I don’t have to be married to be whipped.
|
| 9:10 |
For Chris: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2m6sHROA3U |
| 9:10 |
: Necessary
|
| 9:11 |
: That’s my favorite reply anytime my wife shakes her head at me: “You knew what you were getting yourself into!”
|
| 9:11 |
Cut bait on Heyward? I know SSS and all, but the guy has really turned it around lately. His SB numbers don’t look like they’ll be where they were projected to be, though. |
| 9:11 |
: I wouldn’t cut bait with Heyward.
|
| 9:12 |
: But for me he has never been an elite fantasy guy. Better guy in real life than in fantasy. The slow start kind of cinches it for me. Especially in that guy’s case, since he’s already in last in power.
|
| 9:12 |
: Not here either.
|
| 9:12 |
Trout + Hamilton + Pujols traded for some mid level prospect. Which side says no? |
| 9:13 |
: Angels
|
| 9:13 |
: I would think the Angels say no. Even if they got rid of Hamilton and Pujols, still too tough to give up Trout.
|
| 9:13 |
: Well, the Angels would never do that…but if they did, I don’t think they would have a tough time dealing Trout.
The other two, I’m not so sure. |
| 9:13 |
How would you guys rank the following starters ROS – Bailey, Fister, Cain, Iwakuma, Holland? |
| 9:14 |
: Fister, Iwakuma, Cain, Bailey, Holland
|
| 9:14 |
: Cain, Fister, Bailey, Holland Iwakuma
|
| 9:14 |
: DISAGREEMENTS
|
| 9:14 |
: Bailey, Cain, Fister Holland, Iwakuma
|
| 9:14 |
: Whoa, Jeff is not on the Iwakuma train.
|
| 9:15 |
Do you think Bartolo Colon literally eats innings? |
| 9:15 |
: I bet he could
|
| 9:15 |
: Everything about this makes me smile.
|
| 9:15 |
: and buffets
|
| 9:15 |
Paul, weren’t you the guy who thought I couldn’t stick at 2nd base? In case you haven’t noticed I am 4th in all of baseball in WAR. |
| 9:16 |
: His fielding numbers are really great. I haven’t seen much of him defensively, but I’m really surprised if he’s this good.
|
| 9:16 |
: Great call by the Cards thus far.
|
| 9:16 |
: I am.
But my argument was never about his bat – his bat is great. It was more about him being able to stick there for a full season. Which, to be fair, he has not yet done. |
| 9:17 |
: There just are not a lot of players hit height who have been able to play second base full time. If he makes it the whole season, it’s obviously a HUGE win for St. Louis.
|
| 9:17 |
: his height
|
| 9:18 |
ETA for Jansen replacing League as the Dodger’s closer? League’s ERA is like 6 now. |
| 9:19 |
: Boy, you would have to think it would happen soon.
|
| 9:19 |
: He never should have been the closer to begin with, so I’m not all that confident they’ll replace him now either.
|
| 9:20 |
Is Puig the Dodgers’ best OFer (rest of season) |
| 9:20 |
: Who knows for sure, it should be soon, check out the shutdown/meltdown ratios:
|
| 9:20 |
: I say Kemp pulls it together
|
| 9:20 |
: And Crawford has been pretty good too
|
| 9:20 |
: Yes, but it is pretty low hanging fruit right now.
|
| 9:21 |
: Kemp should still be better, but Puig certainly is right there with him and Crawford.
|
| 9:21 |
Cocoa Puffs or Raisin Bran RoS? |
| 9:21 |
: Cocoa Puffs FTW.
|
| 9:21 |
: Cocoa Puffs
|
| 9:21 |
: Cocoa Puffs ………………………………………………………Raisin Bran.
|
| 9:22 |
wow all 3 of the idiots are here! its a village |
| 9:22 |
: Yuuuuuuup
|
| 9:22 |
Jansen was named closer today in fact…http://www.truebluela.com/2013/6/11/4420954/kenley-jansen-dodgers-closer-brandon-league-don-mattingly |
| 9:22 |
: Well, you know, they say it takes a village. I don’t know what the IT is, but either way we’re doing some good, right?
|
| 9:22 |
: Oh, well how about that, I sit corrected!
|
| 9:23 |
: I didn’t see that either.
|
| 9:23 |
Does Putz get the job back? looks like he gonna be ready for a Rehab Assignment and be back soon (assuming no setbacks of course) |
| 9:23 |
: I think he gets the job back, yes. As long as he’s healthy, he’s the guy.
|
| 9:23 |
: This will be an interesting one. I can’t call it. Bell obviously has that veteran closer juice, so it’s not a slam dunk call.
|
| 9:23 |
: Yes, that is how it works sadly.
|
| 9:24 |
What is your opinion of Neil Huntington as a GM? Seems like he has built a good farm system and also made some moves to upgrade the big league team without sacrificing the longterm (Burnett trade, Russel Martin signing, LIriano) |
| 9:24 |
: I would agree with this statement. I think that his fatal flaw is not being aggressive enough with low-cost, high-upside deals in free agency. Stuff like Fernando Rodney and Kelly Johnson and Bartolo Colon. But he has done a good job overall, I think.
|
| 9:25 |
: Good moves, the boot camp thing was a little weird, but I would take him over Dayton Moore in a heart beat.
|
| 9:25 |
: Yeah. It’s still tough to say. He preached the five year plan or whatever, and it took a long time. But it does look like things are getting better. I’ll say leaning slightly better than usual, but let’s see what happens when he’s a contender.
|
| 9:25 |
: Oh yeah, the boot camp thing was awful
|
| 9:26 |
: And for all of his warts, Clint Hurdle isn’t the worst manager in the world either.
|
| 9:26 |
10 TEAM 6X6 LEAGUE,Carl Crawford just put on waivers.Use my number 1 waiver priority to pick him up? Currently 8th in steals. |
| 9:27 |
: I would give him a shot, yes.
|
| 9:27 |
: If he’s really going to be back in the 15 days, then absolutely.
|
| 9:27 |
: Never keep a waiver priority, get him.
|
| 9:28 |
Should Toronto just blow the team up and start over. |
| 9:28 |
: I say no. They don’t have a ton of bad contracts and can still keep this core together for another shot next year.
|
| 9:29 |
: I would give it another year at least. They need to find a way to stay healthy.
|
| 9:29 |
: Not yet. Most of their guys are still under contract for a few seasons, and Lawrie and Reyes have been hurt.
|
| 9:29 |
hello..bharper..miss thee |
| 9:30 |
: So sad. Chris is going to be watching a lot of 1-run and 2-run games by the vaunted Nats offense this summer.
|
| 9:30 |
: Rendon has looked good the past two games. At least that’s exciting.
|
| 9:30 |
: But… but… Jayson Werth
|
| 9:30 |
: Yeah that’s true. And he has a nice little baby afro going too, which was a surprise.
|
| 9:31 |
Nothing involving Superman can be amazing. It will always be Superman being uber heroic until kryptonite shows up and then a deus ex machina and superman goes back to being uber heroic. |
| 9:31 |
: That’s not at all how this movie looks to be. But Jaack is ALWAYS right about movies, you guys.
|
| 9:32 |
: I think that notion is cancelled out by “everything with Chris Nolan can be amazing.”
|
| 9:32 |
: I agree with Jaack on this one.
|
| 9:32 |
: That IS how Superman Returns was though, which I re-watched this weekend to get ready for Man of Steel.
|
| 9:32 |
: Nolan helped with script.
|
| 9:32 |
: Yup. And is producer, is he not?
|
| 9:32 |
Yadi or Posey? |
| 9:33 |
: Real life, Yadi, Posey for fantasy.
|
| 9:33 |
: Posey is four years younger. Posey.
|
| 9:33 |
: What Jeff said
|
| 9:33 |
Nolan holds the same title for Man of Steel as Steven Spielberg held for Transformers. |
| 9:34 |
: Hey, quit it with the facts, Jaack
|
| 9:34 |
: That’s not at all a valid comparison, because Spielberg gets that credit for anything that comes out under his Dreamworks shingle. And he also does tons of movies. Nolan is FAR more selective, and doesn’t run a huge production company either.
|
| 9:35 |
: What Paul said
|
| 9:35 |
what is the breakdown % of hitting/defense/baserunning for total WAR? Like 70% of WAR is hitting, 25% defense, 5% baserunning? |
| 9:35 |
: I think Jeff can answer this best.
|
| 9:37 |
: 50 hitting and baserunning, so probably 47% hitting, 3% base running. The other half is about 35% pitching, 15% defense. someone can then run the numbers for getting the position player traits up to 100%.
|
| 9:37 |
: Total WAR = 50% hitting and baserunning
|
| 9:38 |
Will the really do the whole Choo in center field all year? His defense has looked awful. |
| 9:38 |
: I think it lasts the whole year. They’ll just ride it out.
|
| 9:38 |
: I don’t watch a ton of Reds baseball, because Dusty’s decision-making angries up my blood, but his UZR is obviously pretty awful. But yeah, I think he’s doing it all year.
|
| 9:39 |
: Looks like JV is pretty close 72% hitting, 5% base running and 23% defense.
|
| 9:40 |
: Cool. Thanks Jeff.
One more Choo note – he has the 4th-worst UZR/150 in baseball. Only Kemp, Duda and Callaspo worse. |
| 9:40 |
Is the strikeout rate going to come around for Cashner? Tonight seems like a decent chance for him to raise it a bit against the Braves. |
| 9:40 |
: Is the team more productive with him in CF than without. Just keep him there. MigCab is horrible at 3B but he is staying there.
|
| 9:41 |
: I think we’re seeing what we’re going to get from Cashner. Which is certainly more valuable than a one-inning reliever. But I think the dreams of Cashner being an elite starter are just that – dreams.
|
| 9:41 |
: I wrote about him a few weeks ago. His fast slider is gone. Either he can’t throw it hard as a starter, or he’s throwing something new. I’m not super optimistic the K rate is going up much.
|
| 9:41 |
: His K rate will go down , just more than people expected, it happens.
|
| 9:42 |
Got offered mccucthen for Puig. I hate the Pirates. What should i do? |
| 9:42 |
: ACCEPT THE TRADE.
|
| 9:42 |
: Take it now.
|
| 9:42 |
: You swallow your hatred. That’s what fantasy is all about.
|
| 9:42 |
Is rookie of the year mine to lose? |
| 9:42 |
: to Puig
|
| 9:43 |
: No. Between Gattis, Puig and Gyorko, and you and Harvey (does Harvey qualify?) it’s still anyone’s race. Might even have to throw Cole in there if he keeps this up.
|
| 9:43 |
: Miller all the way
|
| 9:43 |
If the rockies are in a tight playoff race come august/september, given the state of their pitching staff is their any chance Jonathan Gray makes an appearance in the big leagues? |
| 9:44 |
: I don’t think so, no. The Rockies have never been that aggressive with a recently drafted player. Not even Casey Weathers, who was expected to be ready right away.
|
| 9:44 |
: I would trust Paul here
|
| 9:45 |
: I could see him in the pen. I was not overly impressed with him in person. He could use some wrinkles ironed out in the minors.
|
| 9:45 |
H2H 10 team keeper. I have Harper, Stanton, Bautista,Gomez, Nava. Should I be worried at all? |
| 9:45 |
: Not in terms of your outfield. Jeez.
|
| 9:45 |
: You’re ok. I like Gomez, actually. Stanton and Bautista should be fine. Just need Harper to get healthy.
|
| 9:46 |
: Better than any OF I have on a fantasy team.
|
| 9:46 |
Joyce homered off Lester. Does that mean his platoon splits are over?! Let us all hope so. |
| 9:46 |
: I think it just means that Lester is being whomped by the regression stick at the moment.
|
| 9:46 |
: Pleasant surprise
|
| 9:47 |
is mccann that much of an upgrade from lucroy fantasy wise? |
| 9:47 |
: I need him to turn it around in my big money league or Dickey.
|
| 9:48 |
: I think McCann is, yes. He has a 130 wRC+, and Lucroy is at 103. Lucroy is just a guy to me.
|
| 9:48 |
: I would say he’s a mild improvement.
|
| 9:49 |
: Yes, by a mile.
|
| 9:49 |
The best team in baseball has the best prospect in baseball waiting in the minors. Ridiculous. |
| 9:49 |
: Who are we talking about? Red Sox and Bogaerts?
|
| 9:49 |
: Cardinals and Taveras?
|
| 9:49 |
: Hahaha…um…the Rangers? They already called up Profar.
|
| 9:49 |
: Cards and Taveras could work
|
| 9:51 |
: Either way, yes, both are great examples of the rich getting richer. I can’t wait for Bogaerts. I’ve had him stashed on one fantasy team all season, burning up a roster spot I should be using for a bench guy. I’m that excited about him.
|
| 9:51 |
Rank the following pitcher ROS: Kershaw, Wainright, Lee, Harvey, Latos? |
| 9:51 |
: Exactly the order you have them. Maybe flip flop Lee and Waino.
|
| 9:52 |
: In the order you provided.
|
| 9:52 |
: Kershaw, Lee, Wainwright, Harvey, Latos
|
| 9:52 |
If your name was on the Biogenesis list, what would you want your code name to be? |
| 9:52 |
: Paul Swydan
|
| 9:52 |
: Chief Wiggum.
|
| 9:53 |
: Or maybe Apu’s fake ID name.
|
| 9:53 |
: A.J. Pierlkfdajsaofjlajfsky
|
| 9:54 |
: What do you say we take a relaxed attitude towards work and watch the
baseball game? The nye [New York] Mets are my favorite squadron. |
| 9:54 |
Biogenesis code name… best chat Q of the night. Not even close. |
| 9:54 |
: It really was. Where were you with that half hour ago? GOSH!
|
| 9:54 |
Was just offered Madison Bumgarner for G Cole and Medlen. 8 team nl-only league. Guy offering is a huge pirates fan, you accept right? |
| 9:54 |
: Absolutely!
|
| 9:54 |
: Go for it
|
| 9:55 |
: YES
|
| 9:55 |
Was offered M Bumgarner for G Cole and Medlen in an 8 team nl-only league. Guy offering is a huge pirates fan, do you accept? |
| 9:55 |
: Oh, well that changes things.
|
| 9:55 |
: I’m still leaning towards doing it though, even with Medlen having improved recently.
|
| 9:56 |
: Wait. It said Medlen both times. I’m an idiot.
|
| 9:56 |
: and wrong about the question being different.
|
| 9:56 |
: Yup.
|
| 9:56 |
: I like Bum. I don’t know what Paul is doing.
|
| 9:56 |
If the league wide strikeout % keeps rising will MLB consider doing something like lowering the mound? |
| 9:56 |
: MLB hates change, so this would take years. Decades, even.
|
| 9:57 |
: The mound has been lowered a number of times over the years. It’s really not that steep of a slope now. I don’t think you could really do this again.
|
| 9:57 |
: No, it is not dominating yet, sadly, if a town could handle it, it may be time to expand.
|
| 9:57 |
Arguing with a buddy, better rest of season, Matt Holliday or Dominic Brown? |
| 9:58 |
: Holliday
|
| 9:58 |
: I’ll say Holliday.
|
| 9:58 |
: Holliday, but I feel good for Brown finally getting a chance.
|
| 9:58 |
: Yeah, agreed to that Jeff.
|
| 9:58 |
Why are we seeing recently drafted SP make their debuts so early? Gausman, Wacha, Cole come to mind and they’ve had varying levels of success. |
| 9:59 |
: Partially guys being more polished. Partially teams realizing they should promote guys who are ready ASAP
|
| 9:59 |
: I think MLB teams are realizing what guys like Gary Huckabay and Rany Jazayerli and Will Carroll have known for a long time, and that’s pitchers only have so many bullets, and if they’re close to being ready you let them fire those bullets in the majors.
|
| 9:59 |
: That’s a big part
|
| 9:59 |
: pitcher break down, might as well use them while they are healthy. There is no aging curve for pitchers, just a downward slope.
|
| 9:59 |
: Exactly.
|
| 10:00 |
: And unfortunately, there is also nothing but a downward slope for this chat. So we’re going to end on the highest note possible!
Thanks for hanging out with us tonight. Same time next week? |
| 10:00 |
: Bye everybody
|
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
PPffftt..this thing on?