FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 6/14/16

9:03	Paul Swydan: OK let’s do this. To answer a question I saw a couple of times, I don’t really consider Star Wars to be a space travel movie. Sue me.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Holy cow, made it. I was just catching some college summer league baseball.

9:04	Paul Swydan: And my vote is probably The Martian, though there’s definitely some recency bias there.

9:04	Hannah Hochevar: Tarkovsky’s Solaris.

9:04	Paul Swydan: That I’ve never seen. Consider it on the list!

9:04	Honu: Worse look….man bun or mullet?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:05	Paul Swydan: Tough, though when I saw August unleash all the hair from his man bun I immediately demanded that he put his hair back into his man bun, so…

9:06	Slow Rollers: Do you think one or more of these players could be a top twenty outfielder this season Will Myers, Ozuna, Piscotty? (OPB and SLG instead of AVG)

9:06	Paul Swydan: Is Ozuna not currently a top 20 outfielder?

9:06	Paul Swydan: He is – so is Piscotty. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

9:07	Paul Swydan: I like both of their chances to finish as such. Ozuna more than the others.

9:07	Paul Swydan: JBJ homer.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I think all three could be. The right mix of talent and luck could put them all there

9:07	You’re a Dahl: What are the odds David Dahl gets called up prior to September 1?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think pretty good. I think he could get that last week of August call.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: 10%, I just don’t see it happening until then.

9:08	Prospecting : If Cody Reed (Reds) and Braden Shipley are called up tomorrow and you can only claim one for the rest of the season in a 5×5 NL only league, which would you take?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Probably Reed.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Shipley is a year older, doesn’t have the Ks, and his low BB% seems like an aberration.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Shipley, I think the D-Backs will help him with more Wins and his WHIP and ERA. It is close though

9:10	Belted: Does The Fifth Element count?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think so. Lot of good choices I left off. I forgot Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy too.

9:10	Paul Swydan: What’s your pick, Jeff?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: 2001, such a classic

9:12	Nathan: Is there anything encouraging about Giancarlo at this point or is it purely track record? He is so so bad.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’m comfortable remaining optimistic based on his track record.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep track of his average batted ball speed. He is seeing the largest drop since last season with a 7 mph drop. He is not close to the same hitter

9:13	Moose: With the Darvish injury, is he now officially “injury-prone”?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not IMO. A lot of pitchers have issues when coming back from TJS like Stras and Jose Fernandez

9:14	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so either.

9:15	N.W.enO: Does Star Wars not count? I’d actually vote for E.T.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Fair choice, but the actual space travel comes right at the end.

9:16	Mr. Ed: Wilmer Flores seems to hit pretty well when he gets regular at bats. Do you think the Mets let him play?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s the de facto starter at third base until David Wright comes back. So for now, yes.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: No, he seems destined to be an Athletic.

9:17	fresh basil: Space travel-ish movie: Moon

9:17	Paul Swydan: It’s a space movie, but it’s not really about space travel. I do love that movie though.

9:18	SickofBravesfans: The idea that trading Teheran can and should get the braves a package similar to that which they received for Miller is asinine, yes? What is a realistic package if they should decide to move him? Top 50 + Top 100 + lotto tickets?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I find it asinine, at least in a vacuum, but the market being thin might help the Braves fetch more.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: They will likely get a decent haul. I think they need to find the right team because I think the perception of his value varies greatly.

9:20	Marty Mar: Any reason to sell high on Starling Marte or is this the real Marte?

9:21	Paul Swydan: It’s close. He’s probably not going to run a .415 BABIP all year, but if he walks a little bit more, that should even out.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he could actually do more with the right amount of luck. He has shown more power in the past.

9:21	Stevo: Either one of you read Jeff Passan’s “The Arm”, yet?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I did, and reviewed it here – http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-arm-has-perfect-pitch/

9:22	Paul Swydan: Jeff is actually referenced in the book twice.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Jeff Zimmerman, that is.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, and wrote a review of the major points at Rotographs … http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/thoughts-on-jeff-passans-book-the-arm/

9:23	Tony: Traded Betts ($11) for C.Davis and Stanton (expensive). Please tell me Stanton will turn it around and him and Davis will give me nearly unstoppable homer run power rest of the year(Avg and OPS)

9:23	Paul Swydan: OK, I will, but I still would have kept Mookie.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: For just this season, I like the trade. I am not 100% sure when Staton will turn it around.

9:24	Alan Rickman: Galaxy Quest. Duh.

9:25	McFly: Destination Moon the O.G. space travel movie.

9:25	Harry Caray’s Ghost: The Empire Strikes Back is space travel….

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:25	Paul Swydan: I suppose you’re right, Harry Caray’s Ghost, but I don’t think of it that way. Also, that would have been a boring poll because everyone would have just picked that.

9:25	Owen: Will Swihart be back in LF when he eventually returns from the DL? Feel like we saw right there why he shouldn’t be in LF, and we’re seeing now why Vazquez (49 wRC+) shouldn’t be getting all the ABs at catcher

9:26	Paul Swydan: Owen my friend, you are most definitely preaching to the choir. Vazquez is destined to be a backup catcher. How long it takes the Red Sox to figure this out will go a long way to telling the story of this season.

9:26	Noel : Paul I’m safe to assume you now give the Giants better then 50 50 odds of winning the nl west under the current circumstances? Are you there yet too jeff or still solidly behind the idea dodgers pass them up?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I mean, I picked the Giants to win the division, so obviously I agree with that.

9:28	Harry Caray’s Ghost: Who do you think takes over the 9th while Papelbon is on the DL?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I am still with the Dodgers, but I would like to see them move some pieces now for some reliable pitching and another bat or two.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Kelley

9:29	Paul Swydan: We have Kelley on our Bullpen Report – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-june-13-2016/

9:29	Tony: Fun Fact: Belt leads all 1b in WRC+

9:29	Paul Swydan: And it’s not particularly close – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Which shows how sad the current state of 1B is

9:30	Jim: Poll – Star Trek 2 for good overall, with Apollo 13 for a more serious, yet excellent movie. (calling it a two way tie there). With at a hair behind, 2001 (does drag, but still excellent).

9:30	Paul Swydan: Drag/slowness is my main critique of 2001 and Star Treks 1-4.

9:32	CC Sabathia: Am I really going to keep this up all season or do you see me falling off big time after the all star break?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: The key is your health. Stay away from the buffet and the bottle

9:33	Paul Swydan: Outside of the home run rate, nothing about his performance screams fluke to me.

9:33	Stevo: Are either one of you guys nerdy enough to see Warcraft in theaters?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably not unless my son talks me into it

9:33	Paul Swydan: Nope. Pass. Never played that game, and it’s not even that popular any more if I understand the landscape correctly. Not sure how this got greenlit.

9:35	Jeet: Villar or Profar in an OPS dynasty league?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Profar

9:35	Paul Swydan: FYI “Warcraft” has 27% on Rotten Tomatoes right now.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Dynasty – Profar by a mile

9:36	fish: Pandorum for space travel movie

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’ve never even heard of that one.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Me either

9:36	I never trade: Someone offered me Kluber for Taillon and Tim Anderson. Whatcha think?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I would take that.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Take Kluber

9:38	Strobe Light: What were the other space movies mentioned?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think the only one I didn’t post was Space Cowboys.

9:38	I never trade: Alien

9:38	Paul Swydan: Oh there’s a new one. I’ve never actually seen Alien. ( I KNOW, I KNOW. Some day.)

9:39	I never trade: holy smokes get on that

9:39	TheDudeofNY: You’ve never seen Alien? I banish you from this chat!

9:39	Paul Swydan: Sigh.

9:39	TengoPreguntas: 1986- The Transformers The Movie. Best Space travel movie.

9:40	Paul Swydan: There was more than meets the eye with that movie.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I saw that movie in the theater when it came out Me <—– old

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t remember if I saw it in the theater or at a sleep over, but either way it was a big deal.

9:40	Nick: Would you trade Blake Snell and Brett Gardner for Wil Myers?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I doubt it.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I might in both a keeper and redraft league. I think he is the best player of the three

9:41	Slumdog: Travis Shaw is droppable in 10-team leagues, right?

9:41	Paul Swydan: He sure is, Slumdog!

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:42	Paul Swydan: Shaw homered on May 1, going 2-for-4 against the Yankees.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Since that day, he’s hit .231/.290/.406, for a .299 wOBA, 81 wRC+

9:43	Paul Swydan: His defense at third is keeping him relevant in real life, but his bat is no longer a threat.

9:44	Bill: C’mon. Give Robbie Grossman some love. Two months from now, when everyone is singing his praises, you will be able to say you got the bandwagon moving.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I like bandwagons.

9:45	Harry Caray’s Ghost: The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai Across the 8th Dimension

9:45	Paul Swydan: I feel like you made that one up.

9:45	Tony: Does Space Jam count as a space movie?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Somehow, I’ve never seen Space Jam. Not sure how I made it this far without doing so.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I think his parade will be coming to an end any time now. Remember when Hazelbaker was all the hype.

9:46	I never trade: Taillon 8 inning shutout 2 hitter

9:46	Paul Swydan: Decent.

9:47	Eldridge Cleaver: I have Jonathan Schoop stuck on my bench with Altuve as my starter. Is Schoop too good to drop in a 12 team mixed league?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: You might try to make a trade for him first

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think he’s on the borderline. If you have other needs, it’s not the worst decision.

9:48	Austin Meadows: Chances Cutch gets traded and I get to see ABs at the show? Also who do you like long term? Me or Nick Williams?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Cutch is not getting traded

9:49	Paul Swydan: I don’t think McCutchen is getting traded, sorry. I realize that they could do that and still have three quality outfielders if Meadows pans out, but I think Pittsburgh might revolt. They need to keep McCutchen for his entire career.

9:49	OC: Spaceballs

9:50	Paul Swydan: Eh, I don’t really consider it a space travel movie.

9:50	Tony: Dallas Keuchel just dropped. Pick him up on waivers (12/14 waiver pick)

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yeah, put in the claim, but if your priority is 12th, I doubt he slips to you.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep and never worry about your claim position

9:51	Stenzy: Holy hell!!! Pandorum!! Watch it now!

9:51	Paul Swydan: Is it on Netflix?

9:51	Harry Caray’s Ghost: Made it up? It’s got Lithgow and Goldblum in it. How could be anything but awesome?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I mean, those guys aren’t that automatic.

9:51	Paul Swydan: But point taken.

9:51	Sonny Gray: Am I related to Jon Gray?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Pandorum is a 28% on rotten tomatoes. I try to never watch anything under 80%. I just don’t have the time.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Not according to Baseball-Reference.

9:52	Sonny Gray: Am I a hold or sell high? Dynasty and single season….in case I get traded. What are the chances I don’t get traded?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Gotta hold.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Hold, value is still pretty low

9:53	TengoPreguntas: Have you seen Serenity? That’s also a good space travel movie.

9:53	Paul Swydan: No I have not.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I have seen The Serenity Now!

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Great show/move

9:53	Paul Swydan: Does that count?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Serenity now – insanity later.

9:54	Harry Caray’s Ghost: Re: Rotten Tomatoes scores – The more important number is the audience score, not the critics score. Critics just don’t “get” some movies.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Says the guy defending a movie critics hated. They’re both important, that’s why RT breaks them both out.

9:55	Paul Swydan: If a movie is under <50% critics but >50% audience, it could be a cult hit. But not all movies like that are.

9:55	TengoPreguntas: Critics hated Happy Gilmore and Billy Madison, exo facto – they don’t count

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: And it is at 48% with the audience

9:56	Harry Caray’s Ghost: I’m not defending Pandorum. Never seen it. Just pointing out the huge gap between the two scores.

9:56

Paul Swydan: See but here’s the thing with Billy Madison and Happy Gilmore – they’re only funny if you were in the right age bracket when they came out. For instance, I sincerely doubt my son will find them funny when he’s a teenager. I’ll definitely test that theory, and I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think they’ll hold up very well for people who weren’t “there.”

9:57	Paul Swydan: Also, I feel like critics today make better allowances for the fact that they might not be a target audience for a certain movie.

9:57	Matt: Mazara > Sano Rest of Career?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I think it’s a little early for that, but I do love me some Mazara.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, especially since Mazara can play defense

9:59	TengoPreguntas: Happy Gilmore doesn’t use twitter to hate on shooter so of course children wont like it

9:59	Paul Swydan: Hahaha

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: They also won’t get Pulp Fiction since the people have to use pay phones