FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/17/14

by Paul Swydan

June 17, 2014

6:22	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff was away last weekend, so he is still playing catchup, which means you are stuck with me again tonight! I’ve already got four polls up and running, and hit me with questions, and I’ll see you at 9 pm ET. It’s a plan just crazy enough to work. See you soon!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Oh hey, let’s do this.

9:03	Comment From Sunshine Brock Holt in the OF, how quickly does he gain eligibility in fantasy?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure this depends on your specific league. Every league I’m in is different.

9:03	Comment From Sunshine thoughts on Taveras?

9:03	Paul Swydan: He’ll be back. And be spectacular.

9:04	Comment From Jon Ian Kennedy… Does he get traded? If so, what are chances its to the AL?

9:04	Paul Swydan: He certainly SHOULD be traded. If he is, I’d say the odds are slightly higher than 50/50, since by default there are more AL teams to which he can be traded.

9:04	Comment From Jack How many more innings for Jesse Chavez and how will he do? Worth trading for?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Chavez has started 14 games. He has allowed four runs or fewer in 13 of them, and in the 14th he allowed 5. He may not be a star, but he’ll do just fine.

9:05	Comment From frozen rope Will we see Jimmy Nelson back in the Brewers’ rotation soon?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’m sure it won’t be too long before someone gets hurt.

9:05	Comment From R.I.P. Tony ROS,,,, Mills,Gausman, or Odorizzi???

9:05	Paul Swydan: Gausman

9:06	Comment From Jake James Jones stole 3 bags last night. Thats 10 in less than 150 PA. How many bags does he steal ROS?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I’ll peg it at 20 or under. Unless the Mariners are REALLY committed to his 88 wRC+ (which is actually better than his forecasts) he may be hard pressed to keep a job all season.

9:07	Comment From Jake What type of MI bat would you be looking for if you were trading Longoria?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Top shelf. Cano, Tulo, Hanley, etc. Maybe not Tulo the way both he and Longo are going right now, but that’s the idea.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Keep in mind – third base is REALLY bad this year.

9:07	Comment From Hrkac Circus Is there anywhere on the site to find run support stats for starting pitchers?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, I’ve never looked for anything like that on our site before. I’m sure B-Ref has that.

9:08	Comment From Michael You know Paul, you were right about Rubby de la Rosa. He got into six 3-0 counts yesterday. I want Doubront back ASAP.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I do too, but I wouldn’t mind if Rubby stayed and Peavy went bye bye.

9:08	Comment From Jake Colby Rasmus returns this week. Over/under .240/ 12 HR ROS?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the over on the average and the under on the homers.

9:09	Comment From Ryne big hole at 2b.. best ROS .. Wong, Brad Miller or Odor? anyone else? someone just grabbed Santana

9:09	Paul Swydan: I would bet on the projections and take Miller.

9:09	Comment From Skore Does Utley get traded? Samardzija?

9:10	Paul Swydan: No. Yes.

9:10	Comment From Skore How long before a player’s short-term UZR becomes a concern for a former glove wizard like Brandon Crawford or Carlos Gomez?

9:10	Paul Swydan: A while. Probably more than a year.

9:10	Comment From Guest Hey, how would you rank the top 3 or so prospects from the recent MLB draft for a dynasty league? I’m not sure how much you know about prospects, but thanks for the help

9:11	Paul Swydan: I don’t know much about them on purpose until they sign and get into pro ball. For now, I would just go the order of the board. Maybe move Aiken down a peg because he was deliberately chosen because he was willing to sign under slot (a policy that I think is BS, btw).

9:11	Comment From A Canadian Lady Why don’t we talk about the games in this chat? Why post best match-up polls and then not talk about them?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I mean, I just go with the questions you peeps ask me. Also, it’s tough for me to watch games and chat at the same time, at least more than one game. But fire away, I’ll do my best!

9:12	Comment From Robert Does Mike Trout make your insides feel funny?

9:12	Paul Swydan: No, only Thai food does that.

9:12	Comment From Ryan Prado, Bruce and Eovaldi for Cano, Aybar and H. Bailey– who wins?

9:12	Paul Swydan: The Cano side.

9:13	Comment From Guest Everth Cabrera – BB% way down, K% way up, swinging more, making contact less, can’t even blame the low BA on luck (BABIP .290), he’s running all that much and has only a moderate success rate when he does.

9:13	Paul Swydan: To a certain extent, I think his failure is symptomatic of the team’s failure. They are the exact opposite of firing on all cylinders right now. Having said that, last year may have been Everth’s high water mark.

9:13	Comment From Paul Swydan Jr. RoS: Lance Lynn, Ervin Santana, Shelby Miller.. Does Heaney outperform one or more of these guys?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’d certainly be happy to gamble that Heaney will outperform Santana and/or Miller.

9:14	Comment From mike I’d like a historical perspective. If I’m twenty years old, are trout, pujols, cabrera,kershaw and the like the best ill the best ill ever see? Just curious to get a context of what we’re currently witnessing. Thanks!

9:15	Paul Swydan: The current version of Pujols? Hell no. Cabrera is up there, but no, not the best ever. Kershaw and Trout are in rarified air at this point IMO.

9:15	Comment From Michael What do you think is BS exactly, the limit on how much teams can spend on draft signings? Would you just let everyone spend unlimited money? Or same budget for all teams?

9:17

Paul Swydan: Multiple things are BS. The limit placed on bonuses, but also the strategy of taking maybe the third or fourth-best guy to be able to get a “better” player in the 30s. I think it’s been proven that you shouldn’t F around with the first pick, as it tends to be far more valuable than even the #2 pick. You game it often enough and you’re going to lose out on a superior player.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I think we’re already seeing that with Houston, unless you guys all think that Correa is going to be better than Buxton. That certainly does not seem to be the industry consensus.

9:18	Paul Swydan: If I was in charge, there would be no draft, to answer the other part of your question. Everyone eligible to play Major League Baseball would be declared a free agent.

9:18	Comment From Jimmy Two Times This is my last chance to try to trade Pedrioa and Wright in my keeper league while they still have some perceived name value, despite having none on the field, right?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Maybe on Pedroia. RE: Wright, again, 3B has been so bad that you should be able to move him later even if he continues to stink.

9:19	Comment From Clair In a 14-team league, would you still be rostering J.J. Hardy when you have Dee Gordon on your roster and there are guys like Luis Valbuena, Chris Owings, Jordy Mercer, Tommy La Stella, and Kolten Wong available as FAs?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Maybe, but I certainly wouldn’t feel bad about cutting him.

9:19	Comment From Clair Were early season projections too generous for Wilin Rosario, or is he a top tier catcher that’s just off to a really slow start?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure he missed some time due to injury. Not ready to bury Wilin yet.

9:20	Comment From Breezy Since May analysts continue to say that “Michael Brantley’s HRs will decrease”. Why can’t he hit 25-30 HRs this season?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Well, no one is saying he can’t, just that it’s not likely given his previous history and that you shouldn’t bank it. This is now even more true that he took a knee to the noggin’ last night.

9:21	Comment From Nuclear Option If the idea is to rebuild….is it too early to start selling off quality assets (Wainwright, Pujols, Ellsbury) in a long-term keeper league?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Nope. When I was tanking/rebuilding, I have traded off in April and May.

9:22	Comment From Larry Bernandez If there was no draft, then wouldn’t the higher market teams hoard good, young talent?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Nope. There’s only 30 teams (and only x number of minor league teams). Eight shortstops aren’t going to sign with the Yankees because the Yankees can’t play that many. These guys want to play. Also, if that was the case, then explain to me how Aroldis Chapman ended up in Cincinnati.

9:23	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Houston has to already be regretting Appel > Bryant.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that too, though I suppose you could argue Appel was a special pitcher. I’m not as certain on him being clearly inferior as I am on Correa.

9:24	Comment From Rizzo Was offered Price & Moss for Heyward, Jennings & Latos. OB% re-draft league. Which side you like? Fair? Concerned more about Price or Latos?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I like the Prices/Moss combo, and doubly so if OBP counts.

9:25	Comment From Arenado What do you expect from me when I get back? Should my owners be selling me now with the anticipation building? ROS me or Aramis?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I think you were probably hitting a little over your head before, but I could see you putting up those numbers over a whole season in one of your better seasons.

9:26	Paul Swydan: And, ROS, Arenado.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Assuming he returns OK.

9:26	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Stroman around 100 pitches in 3.2 innings tonight

9:26	Paul Swydan: Hmmmm, I think that’s bad.

9:26

Comment From Michael
I would abolish the draft in the NFL because there its only purpose is clearly to pay young players less than market value. I think it actually serves more purpose than that in baseball but I would certainly cut down significantly on the 6½ years of team control once players reach the majors…

9:26	Paul Swydan: No, that’s its purpose in baseball as well.

9:27	Comment From Old friend Now I should be studying the bar exam but I’m instead enjoying a beer and this chat…at least that’s not for 40 days or so

9:27	Paul Swydan: Good luck on the bar exam. FanGraphs’er JD Sussman went through that last year and came out clean. At least, I think it was last year. Maybe it was two years ago……

9:27	Comment From Newman when did eno start playing goalie for mexico?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, but he was really good today!

9:27	Comment From Matt They would try to hoard talent. But spending a ton of money on prospects that bust 75% of the time wouldn’t look too good

9:28	Paul Swydan: Every team has had this set up in Latin America for years, and it never really works out this way there. If it did, the Yankees farm system wouldn’t be a joke.

9:28	Comment From Alex Kyle Schwarber was promoted to A ball today, right? A prospect right out of the draft hitting A in his first half season is pretty rare, isn’t it?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Not incredibly, no. Also, it may have been done deliberately to just make sure the kid wasn’t over his head.

9:29

Comment From Larry Bernandez
With regards to my earlier question about no draft, Wiki states that before the draft was instituted, CIN and NYY would stockpile young talent, preventing access to other teams. Although the Yankees didn’t get Aroldis, they, along with BOS and LAD, seem to get the bulk of international talent like Tanaka, Wang, Ryu, Kuroda, Dice-K, Puig…

9:30	Paul Swydan: Back in those days, certain teams also had dozens of farm teams while others didn’t. There’s also like, double the teams there used to be, so that would be harder to pull off from that perspective as well. Baseball’s landscape has changed SIGNIFICANTLY since the 1960s.

9:30	Comment From Sunshine How would you compare the keeper league strategies of selling players versus keeping them and trying to build around them next year? A lot of my fellow owners aren’t willing to give up young guys just to win now

9:30	Paul Swydan: That’s stupid. Flags fly forever. You do what you gotta do.

9:31	Comment From Gila Monster The league should allow different spending in draft/international not only based on record, but with a market size factor. Good teams with no money get screwed

9:31	Paul Swydan: No, just make everyone free agents. Spending thresholds will take care of themselves, just like they do in free agency now.

9:32	Paul Swydan: But yes, if you’re keeping some sort of current system, there should be modifications for market size.

9:32	Comment From Lewie Has David Wright kind of lost it?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I’m definitely worried about his power output, but I don’t see him just becoming a scrub over night. Certainly this isn’t a trend, he hit for power just fine last season.

9:34	Comment From Northsider There are those competitive balance picks (which go to every team in the NL Central but the Cubs, grumble)

9:34	Paul Swydan: To quote one Cosmo Kramer, those seem capricious and arbitrary.

9:34	Comment From Bowie I was just offered her Kolten Wong for my David Wright! Who do you like: Wright or Wong?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Still Wright.

9:35	Comment From Willie Speaking of the travesty that is 3B, what do you think of Pedro Alvarez? New approach, more walks, less production…

9:35	Paul Swydan: I liked him just the way he was, but this will play too, I suppose.

9:35	Comment From Alex Was that a joke? Cause I liked it if it was a joke.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Was what a joke?

9:36	Comment From Northsider Who stole my name?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Wasn’t me!

9:36	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Chase Utley a HoFer for you, right now?

9:36	Paul Swydan: No, not right now.

9:36	Comment From Alex Wright or Wong. Seems like a pretty good pun. I enjoyed it.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Oh, ya. I was hoping it wasn’t a joke, but if it was, it’s still funny.

9:37	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Luis Valbuena has produced an all-star level first half.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I feel like he did this last year too and then tapered off. I guess we’ll see if that happens again/

9:37	Comment From Newman I s jimmy rollins a hall of famer?

9:38	Paul Swydan: No, not even close.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Don’t get me wrong, I love J-Roll, but no.

9:38	Comment From Newman why not jroll a hall of famer, his stats compare well to other ss in hall?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Really? Which ones?

9:39	Comment From CA Which if any of the Mets starting pitchers do you see getting traded this deadline?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Colon should be. They should definitely listen on Niese as well.

9:39	Comment From Newman You don’t think Miggy ranks as best of the best ever as right handed hitter?

9:40	Paul Swydan: He’s up there, but best of the best? Not yet. Lot of really great hitters on that list.

9:40	Comment From Rob Is it wrong to feel schadenfreude after the ump who’s been calling a horrible strike zone all night long gets hit in the balls with a pitch?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I mean…..ya. I’d still feel bad. I would laugh if he took one off the elbow, perhaps, but not right in the cobbles.

9:40	Comment From Rob Utley is at 57 fWAR and 60 bWAR.

9:41	Comment From Rob Rollins is at 47 fWAR and 60 bWAR.

9:41	Paul Swydan: They sure are. And I don’t think that clears the bar.

9:42	Paul Swydan: More than that though, when have you ever thought to yourself, “You know who’s the best shortstop in baseball? Jimmy Rollins!” I never have. Utley maybe has been for a couple of years in terms of second basemen, but it’s certainly been awhile.

9:42	Comment From Stephen If you played in the majors, would you wear you pants up and show them socks, or would you wear your pants manny style?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I would probably do both, depending on my mood and hitting streak. Also, Manny wore his socks high a fair percentage of the time as well.

9:42	Comment From J-roll and I hit more HR’s, drove in more runs than Ozzie

9:43	Paul Swydan: You also can’t even hold a candle to Ozzie defensively.

9:43	Comment From Sunshine You a Khris Davis believer?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I am.

9:43	Comment From Too loyal? Can I rid myself of Allen Craig in a 7 teamer?

9:43	Paul Swydan: 7 teamer? Jesus. Add some people to your league. And, yes.

9:44	Comment From Newman rollins may end up with 2500 hits 1500 runs 500 sbs and has lot of pop for ss. good fielder

9:44	Paul Swydan: Omar Vizquel had nearly 3,000 hits, and he still isn’t a hall of famer.

9:44	Comment From Commander Adama Stroman or Gausman for this season?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Gausman.

9:44	Comment From Jim Let’s say Marlins decide to shop Stanton: would they look for a package comparable to the Cabrera deal back in ’07, or would they — having been burned — want more? And wuld other teams, seeing how well this worked out for DET, offer a better group of talent?

9:45	Paul Swydan: They should want more. That Cabrera package felt light even at the time.

9:45	Comment From Alex Man, people really want Rollins in the HOF

9:45	Comment From zlonnie B Goode is there really nothing more to talk about than arguing if jimmy rollins is a hall of famer?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Hey, I just put up the questions you guys put in the queue. I like Jimmy Rollins, I just don’t think he’s a hall of famer.

9:45	Comment From Brian Is this going to be a career worst year for McCann? Talk me out of dropping McCann and going straight Derek Norris at C in an OBP league

9:46	Paul Swydan: I can’t.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I guess the only thing is that Norris splits time with Jaso. That’s the only counter I can offer you.

9:46	Comment From Too loyal? Dude. I barely made it into the 7 teamer comprised of my husband’s friends. I don’t know anyone who likes baseball! And I don’t want to play strangers. Or do I? Is that as fun?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Generally, no, it’s not as fun to play with strangers. But perhaps you could find an abandoned Ottoneu team and that could be fun eventually?

9:47	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun My wife just told me Garrett Jones is good looking.

9:47	Paul Swydan: OK. Is he? Let me check.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yeah, he’s not ugly.

9:48	Comment From Alex Nice plug Paul

9:48	Paul Swydan: Well, I only say Ottoneu because I know for a fact that they have a program of trying to fill abandoned teams. I think Scoresheet does this as well. Not sure of other formats.

9:49	Comment From JV What kind of player will Corey Seager be in a couple years?

9:49	Paul Swydan: A major league player, most likely.

9:49	Comment From JV is Derek Norris a solid keeper option for $1 in 2 catcher OBP leagues?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Absolutely.

9:49	Comment From Matt ROS Khris Davis or Gausman?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Gausman, probably. Though I like both.

9:49	Comment From Alex So yeah, Joey Gallo believer?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Sorry, yes.

9:49	Comment From JV Does Joc Pederson play everyday next season in LA?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no.

9:50

Comment From The Hitchhiker
7’s the key number here. Think about it. 7-Elevens. 7 dwarves. 7, man, that’s the number. 7 chipmunks twirlin’ on a branch, eatin’ lots of sunflowers on my uncle’s ranch. You know that old children’s tale from the sea. It’s like you’re dreamin’ about Gorgonzola cheese when it’s clearly Brie time, baby. Step into my office.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Backs away slowly from the keyboard….

9:50	Comment From Dave Buy Sell Hold on Hanley?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Hold

9:50	Comment From Sam Am I crazy to drop Mauer for Rosario?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Mauer is the worst player on your team? I find that hard to believe.

9:50	Comment From Michael Boston is leading 2-1 in the 8th inning. Edward Mujica is warming in the pen. Your thoughts?

9:51	Paul Swydan: My first thought is, Edward Mujica used to be great, and I hope he will be great again. My second thought is, I should have more beer in the house.

9:51	Comment From Aaron Do you ever, in fantasy, get players just because you know somebody in that league might have an obsession with them and overpay on a trade?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I HAVE done this, but I try not to, because it doesn’t usually work out the way you think it will.

9:52	Comment From Alex Koji is unavailable.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Right, that was my understanding tonight, but I haven’t been paying close enough attention to know if that was actually still playing out that way.

9:52	Comment From Newman Vizquel has nearly 3000 hits, wow I didn’t know tha How can he not be in hof when he was best fielder ever next too ozzie?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Because he just wasn’t that good. He has that many hits because he hung around forever, not because he was good.

9:53	Paul Swydan: He played for 24 years and piled up 42 WAR. I’m not good at math, but I think that’s less than 2 WAR per season. Overly simplistic, but I think you take my meaning.

9:53	Comment From Guest #3234 Did you vote for Jeter to start the All-Star game?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I don’t vote for the All-Star Game, but if I did, then probably. He is who I want to see start the game, that’s for sure.

9:54	Paul Swydan: And then Xander can come in for him in the third inning.

9:54	Comment From Saul Battlestar Galactica: great show or greatest show?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Never watched it. I know my cousins love it though.

9:55	Comment From Jimmy Two Times Trying to put together the foundation for a keeper league where players can be kept forever without penalty and I’m tempted punt on this year and go full on prospect…grab up all Buxton, Bryant, Baez, Russell types. Too much?

9:56	Paul Swydan: See, the problem with that is that a lot of these guys are going to bust. Even the ones we think will be great. I’d target young guys that are already up. Though that is certainly easier said than done.

9:56	Comment From Costanza FWIW, Rollins has >9,000 career PA and Utley has about 6,000. That’s a pretty significant edge in terms of productivity / PA for Utley.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Let me clarify. I think Utley CAN be a Hall of Famer with a few more good years. I don’t think Rollins can be a Hall of Famer no matter what he does from here on out.

9:57	Comment From Rated Rookie Just got here. What’d I miss?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Reggie Jackson finally killed the queen.

9:57	Comment From Brad Thoughts on Verlander, hope for owners? Why or why not?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Nope. I’m officially stumped. And officially pissed, since I paid $50 for him in Ottoneu this season.

9:58	Comment From Northsider There were rumors today that the Cubs were looking to possibly extend the Shark. Would Theo’s plan still follow the plan if they re-signed him?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t re-sign him.

9:58	Paul Swydan: They already don’t have enough good pitchers. Trading away Samardzija gives them one fewer.

9:58	Comment From Guest calhoun or desmond jennings ros

9:58	Paul Swydan: Calhoun

9:58	Comment From Amaro What is the difference between a plate appearance and an AB? But seriously, if you were to vote on your own polls, which games would you have voted for?