FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/7/16

by Paul Swydan

June 7, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	TheDudeofNY: Peanuts are not nuts.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Picky, picky, picky.

9:02	Dave in London: Thoughts on Leonys Martin this year and going forward? Is he due for a significant regression, or is he as good as he’s looked this year?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s on the shelf right now, but I think he has a good chance to be this good, assuming he comes back healthy.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not 100% buying it and have looked at him in detail. I don’t buy all the power. I give 33% chance he is breaking out.

9:04	Macho: Arenado and rosenthal for odor, Ian Desmond, conforto and Michael Feliz. 12 team keep 10 forever. Holds and OPS league.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the 4 person side even though Arenado is the best player in the deal

9:05	Paul Swydan: I guess it depends on how you see Conforto. If you see him as the 130 wRC+ player he was last year, I’d take his side. If you see him as the 113 wRC+ player he’s been this year, I hang on to Arenado.

9:06	Gord: Thoughts on Joc? Doesn’t look like he’s improving.

9:07	Paul Swydan: He’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone, which isn’t great, but at the very least, he’s not regressing further.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you are seeing his best, just barely above league average hitter

9:07	Slow Rollers: Hey Paul do you think now is the time to try to shop Xander Bogarts? Can he keep up this pace?

9:08	Paul Swydan: While allowing that he is both currently my and my son’s favorite player, the answer is probably. It’d be hard for him to run a .400 BABIP all season.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know if he is at his peak value yet. I don’t think the past 1.5 seasons has made people forget about his early struggles

9:09	Paul Swydan: Sorry, that wasn’t clear. The answer is you should probably shop Bogaerts now if you’re looking to maximize a return.

9:09	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:10	Paul Swydan: Though seeing as how he’s leading the All-Star vote, it seems a good portion of the fans have forgotten those struggles. 😛

9:10	Larry Bernandez: Why do the Pirates keep sporadically having Polanco hit near the bottom of the order so they can put Freese in the 3-hole? He’s hit lefties pretty well this year, and they even have him hitting 7th in the second game of today’s doubleheader, against a righty.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I suspect it’s just to keep Freese humming and keep harmony in the clubhouse.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Who knows what managers are thinking.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Also, Freese hit third for the entire first month. Even with Polanco emerging, some habits die hard.

9:12	Michael Woods: How many international amateurs subject to bonus-pool restrictions do you see signing for more than $1 million before the current period ends June 15?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: 17

9:12	Paul Swydan: Oohh, you want the Eric Longenhagen chat for that sort of question.

9:12	Anal Hershiser: I should be mad at myself for expecting more from Freddie Freeman right? 25 homers with 37 RBI was always going to happen on this team.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I mean, I don’t know if you should be mad at yourself about it, but yeah, that was definitely always going to happen with that team.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: That team is so bad, but after digging into the draft $$$, getting into the first 4 picks, especially #1 is a huge binus

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: bonus

9:14	Jim: You say its “After Dark” chat. But, given its midsummer, dark happens here at appx 7 us pac time, can we get you for false advertising? If I wait for ‘after dark’, I will miss the chat !

9:14	Paul Swydan: Well, technically you could read the chat transcript after dark, so…

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, what Paul said.

9:14	Jimmy: Predict the Braves next competitive window.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I can’t see them being competitive before 2019.

9:15	Paul Swydan: But I’ve been wrong before.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: 3 years from now if everything goes right

9:15	Anal Hershiser: Cash in on the hype and trade Profar and Taillon for Cespedes in a keeper league where right now those guys would not be keepers for me or ride the wave? Worried about PT for Profar and rookie issues for JT.

9:16	Paul Swydan: I think if you can get Cespedes for those guys I’d probably do it.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Get Cespedes. I ran the comps a Taillon today and they weren’t improessive

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman/status/740270250541776897

9:16	Stenzy: Please tell me the Giants are thinking bigger than Jeff Francour… Bullpen and offense are taking on water fast!

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’d love to tell you that, but Francoeur is exactly the kind of scrub who goes to San Fran and then hits .350 for a few weeks, so take heart!

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: They never seem to go big. I could though see them add a couple bullpen arms

9:18	Larry Bernandez: Wait, I lied. Polanco is hitting third now. At Bat must have had the previous game’s lineup down for the Pirates.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Why would you lie to us like that, Larry? Why? WHY?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: The Pirates listened to you

9:19	pkersh: dodgers need an innings eater after loss of alex wood. who ya got?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Not a lot of great options: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/top-10-trade-candidates-mlb.html

9:19	Paul Swydan: Teheran seems like it, right now, unless you can get a team not covered here to tap out.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Matt Garza. Fits the mold of the pitchers they like to hoard, old and injured.

9:20	Vic Romano: Over/Under on the Cubs’ regular season record – 116.5

9:20	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Under

9:21	Von Schloss: What to do with Jose Abreu in a 16 team Dynasty?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Gotta wait it out.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Hold or trade for someone else struggling

9:21	Minty: Even if Giolito was pitching better, is there room in DC currently?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Not really, no. Unless they want to trade Gio to save a few bucks.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Oooh, good one from Jeff.

9:23	Gavin: This isn’t a question, more of a PSA. Looks like Justin Upton might have arrived in 2016. His double today was a hair short of leaving the yard, and he’s been dragging his OBP up for a month now. I’d be trying to buy buy buy if his owner is still fed up.

9:23	Paul Swydan: I’ll endorse this.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: No and I think the Nats will wait. They can hold off until someone gets hurt or starts to struggle. they are in a good predicament.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Still not buying and thanks on the poll.

9:24	Andrew: Since the beginning of the 2011 season, the Red Sox as a team are 25th in SP WAR, FIP and xFIP, surrounded by smaller market teams. Price certainly helps, but 2016 doesn’t look to be all that different. So what gives? This is clearly an organizational flaw.

9:25	Paul Swydan: It certainly is. They don’t have much on the farm in terms of pitching either. Anderson Espinoza is the only one even sort of delivering on the hype right now, and he is in A ball.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is the right approach to concentrate on hitting and if need be, trade it for pitching.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: They have another great arm on the same A-Ball team …. looking up name …

9:26	Paul Swydan: It’s the right approach if you’re picking only one thing to be good at, though I don’t know why you would want to do that. Furthermore, they haven’t been good at making those trades.

9:26	Paul Swydan: The Lackey trade was a disaster.

9:27	Scooter: which side (in a vacuum): Betts for Bumgarner and Carrasco

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends if you need pitching or hitting

9:27	Paul Swydan: Wow that’s tough. In a vacuum, I think you have to take the two pitchers. Ultimately, it’ll come down to your specific circumstances.

9:28	Danny Almonte: Peak Pedro for 3 years or peak James Shields for 15?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Pedro. I want to be entertained. Peak Shields is borderline entertaining. Peak Pedro was the greatest thing I’ve ever seen on a diamond.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Please don’t compare Pedro and Shields ever again. Please.

9:29	Paul Swydan: And that’s coming from a Royals fan!

9:29	Dr Evil: Rank the three top AL SS’s this year – Machado, Bogaerts, Lindor (and no I didn’t forget Correa)

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: The kids name is Roniel Raudes in the Red Sox system

9:29	Paul Swydan: Just the way you have it, Dr. Evil.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: If it is just this year, it would just be their WAR rankings. If you are looking forward, you have to include Correa.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:31

Brad: What do you think about Severino ROS and long term? Would you deal profar for him 1-1? Am I being paranoid to think Severino comes back has another injury….gets a “pre-cautionary” MRI, then it is TJ and he wont come back til 2018 and then end up struggling and going to the PEN. The Yankees dont seem to be able to develop SP, see Joba, Hughes, IPK….

9:32	Paul Swydan: Severino is very divisive. The scenario you are laying out is most certainly paranoid, though I can’t say I blame you.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Severino will struggle as a starter until he is moved to the bullpen. I would take Profar in a second

9:33	Paul Swydan: What I think is that he struggled in 35 innings this year. Seven starts. I’d like to see him have at least seven more before I start putting the nails in his starter coffin

9:34	Stevo: Cubs fan in our league is trying to acquire all Cubs players, and wants to get Fowler from me. I asked for Greinke, since Kenta Maeda is his next best pitcher, and he turned that down. Am I being to greedy or is he being conservative (12 team 6×6 w/OBP)

9:34	Paul Swydan: Both. That’s fair on 2016 performance, but not really on past performance or reputation. It’s a hard sell.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: A little, but don’t make the trade just because he wants the Cubs. I have dealt with teams like this before and trades are tough because they have limited available resources (non-Cubs)

9:36	rustydude: Hanley Ramirez has been okay in my lineup, to date (99 wRC+), but I just picked up Jose Ramirez (132 wRC+). Would you start JoRam over Hanley, going fwd?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think I’d play matchups. I don’t think there needs to be an absolute decision here.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: No, unless Hanley has some really tough matchups

9:37	Minty: If Profar keeps up a sustainable version of what he’s doing, who gets dealt?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Well Desmond is only on a 1-year deal. So no one really HAS to get dealt. But their willingness to play Profar at first base tonight offers us some clues about possible future plans as well.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: He does I think if the Rangers feel they need pitching. Or several minor leaguers bundled together. I can’t see another starter moved

9:38	skip: the dominono was soooo much better than the papa slam

9:38	Paul Swydan: Yup.

9:39	dgrussel: Anyone watching the wild KC-Bal game? Manny landed one right to Ventura’s head

9:39	Paul Swydan: I haven’t been, but I bet Jeff can offer some commentary…

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: None, no TV for me as the family had mine before I got home tonight

9:40	turbo: Should I give heyward, duvall, and orlando arcia to get Nola? 12 team dynasty

9:40	Paul Swydan: No, that seems steep.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: https://twitter.com/UPROXXSports/status/740354941068279809

9:41	Paul Swydan: I would very much like to never see the Crying Jordan meme again.

9:42	Maud: Is there any reason to call up a prospect on a non competing team other than player relations and alienating fanbase vs. the extra year of player control.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Well, we’re past the extra year of player control threshold. Now we’re at the threshold where teams are keeping them down to save the owners a few million in arbitration. Which, yeah, you know I don’t think alienating fan bases is worth that.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, I think a prospect needs time in the majors to adjust. I could see bringing them up 2 years before the window to have them at their peak for a run

9:43	Curious: Adam Jones hitting leadoff seems like a bad idea. Is it?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably. They could maybe find a better OBP hitter

9:45

Paul Swydan: If you subscribe to the theory that he’s one of their four best hitters moving forward, then I don’t take too much issue with it. But that is now seemingly a legit question. By wOBA we have him as their 6th best hitter ROS. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2#ALL

9:46	Curious: The Ichiro Countdown. 33 more hits to get to 3,000. Dude is hitting .320 at 42 years of age.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Actually, he’s up to .333 at this very moment. Pretty darn good.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I didn’t think it was possible, but he has it pretty much locked up at this point

9:48

Justin mcnelly: 14 team league with 35 roster spots. Players lose 3 rounds per year. Keep 6 players. Can you rank these players value. Urias 19th, Berrios 21st, Glasnow 20th, Bregman 22nd, Benintini 22nd, buxton 13th, Profar 22nd. I ask because I’ve been lucky and have story 15th, Bradley jr 17th, T shaw 18th, Castellanos 14th, Hosmer 6th, Conforto 9th, Matz 10th. I can’t keep them all and want to win this year. Advice?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Well first of all, I wouldn’t be sold on Travis Shaw just yet. Of the group you’re asking us to rank though, I like Urias, Glasnow, Bregman, Benitiendi and Profar the best. So basically just lose the Twins.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Profar and …Urias. If you can wait, see what Buxton ends up doing

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yeah I don’t hate Buxton, just not remotely sold at this point.

9:51	Wood: Need pitching (ratios sucks) and considering moving Xander or Mazara. What level of starter should I target for them? Cole too high? What if I package them?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Cole is not too high in my opinion, though you might have a tougher time getting someone to bite on Mazara for Cole straight up.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you can get someone better than Cole, but he is in the right range

9:52	Josecanyousee: Kershaw +/- 25 walks this season? +/- 11.5 K/BB?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: +25, +11.5K/BB …. think

9:53	Paul Swydan: Isn’t it ridiculous that we can even talk about this? I’ll take the under on walks and the ………… the over on the K/BB.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Check out the leaderboard since 1947. Kershaw is obliterating that record right now: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=1947&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

9:54	Von Schloss: Dynasty league.. who needs to add to a Harper for Kershaw deal or is it even?

9:55	Paul Swydan: That is some Ted Williams for Joe DiMaggio stuff right there, my friend. Honestly, while I think Kershaw is the better player, he’s also the pitcher, so if any side needs to add to mitigate risk, it’s the Kershaw side.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is even at this point, but would take the Kershaw side

9:56	Cubs Rule: Thoughts on Shields going back to familiar ground in the AL. Think playing for a contender, knowing the hitters better and overall the AL Central doesn’t have killer offenses outweighs his drop in velo and homer proness?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you are over thinking it.

9:57

Paul Swydan: Not sure I want to ride that “knows the hitters narrative” too hard, since he’s been gone for two years. Buxton and Park weren’t around two years ago, just off the tippy top of my head, and I’m sure we could come up with plenty of other examples. Correa, etc. Having said that, he’s still a decent pitcher and isn’t being asked to carry his new team. I’m all for it.

9:58	Go O’s: 50 game suspension for Ventura? A message needs to be sent to him.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Guys, the Orioles fan is upset. Just so you know.

9:58	Paul Swydan: No, Ventura is not going to get a 50-game suspension.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: 15 probably. Twice what Odor got seems reasonable

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yeah, three starts. Comes down to 2 on appeal.

9:59	Zwibi: Good brawl tonight in Balt. Go figure, Ventura throwing at another player. This is one of the main reason I hate the DH. Seems to me pitchers would be less willing to throw at people if they in turn had to go stand in the box. What say you?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure this is wrong. Haven’t the Dbacks and Pirates been league leaders in HBP in recent seasons?