FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 7/18/17

6:29

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best matchup?

MIL (Guerra) vs. PIT (Nova) (19.7% | 15 votes)

TEX (Ross) vs. BAL (Bundy) (11.8% | 9 votes)

ARI (Ray) vs. CIN (Romano) (18.4% | 14 votes)

TOR (Happ) vs. BOS (Johnson) (7.8% | 6 votes)

CHC (Lackey) vs. ATL (Newcomb) (10.5% | 8 votes)

NYY (Cessa) vs. MIN (Colon) (14.4% | 11 votes)

SEA (Gaviglio) vs. HOU (Peacock) (1.3% | 1 vote)

TB (Snell) vs. OAK (Smith) (2.6% | 2 votes)

WAS (Jackson) vs. LAA (Chavez) (2.6% | 2 votes)

Other (10.5% | 8 votes)

Total Votes: 76

6:32

Paul Swydan:

With Carlos Correa now out, there is one fewer AL MVP candidate. Who is the favorite right now?

Mike Trout (18.2% | 19 votes)

Aaron Judge (55.7% | 58 votes)

Jose Altuve (3.8% | 4 votes)

Chris Sale (5.7% | 6 votes)

Mookie Betts (3.8% | 4 votes)

Jose Ramirez (3.8% | 4 votes)

George Springer (5.7% | 6 votes)

Corey Kluber (0% | 0 votes)

Still Carlos Correa! (1.9% | 2 votes)

Other (0.9% | 1 vote)

Total Votes: 104

8:58	Paul Swydan: Who’s having the best night? Dbacks (60.4% \| 26 votes) Tigers (4.6% \| 2 votes) White Sox (25.5% \| 11 votes) Yankees (9.3% \| 4 votes) Total Votes: 43

8:59	Paul Swydan: Who’s having the worst night? Red Sox (29.2% \| 12 votes) Rockies (24.3% \| 10 votes) Any non-CHW/DET team looking to sell (26.8% \| 11 votes) Other? (19.5% \| 8 votes) Total Votes: 41

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Yo

9:01	Paul Swydan: Just another night in Jul-OH MY GOD TRADESZZZZZZZZZ

9:01	Minty: This is probably the shiny new toy problem, but Moncada or Acuna in an OBP dynasty?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Moncada.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I think so.

9:02	MR G: DISASTER!! I just lost Correa. Picked up Arcia – only good option on waivers. Should I wait and see or get aggressive with trade offers?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Arcia has been better lately. I’d inquire about trades, but I wouldn’t be aggressive.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: So many factors in play, just test the market and see if someone bites

9:03	Scoop: How far apart (or how close) are Kris Bryant and Miguel Sano. Both are eligible for 1B, 3B and OF in Yahoo!

9:03	Paul Swydan: In real life, maybe not that far apart. I think Bryant’s got a real life defensive edge, but you probably don’t care much about that in fantasy.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I mean, in fantasy, maybe not that far apart. Sorry.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I changed that sentence mid-stream.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Bryant more based on the R and RBI chances. Otherwise, I think they have similar talent

9:04	Caffeinated Mayonnaise: With a Todd Frazier trade seeming immanent, should we expect to see the White Sox trade Jose Abreu? Or has the league wide surge in HRs diminished his trade value?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I think Abreu is probably the hardest player for him to trade. But now he has the next two weeks to focus on exclusively trading Abreu, so anything is possible.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Not much demand for 1B at the trade deadline … ever. Might be best to move in the offseason.

9:06	JV: Is the White Sox farm the best ever?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’m not qualified to really say that definitively, but they were already building an amazing farm system even before the season started. They’re definitely gearing up for something fantastic.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: The Cubs had a pretty good one a few seasons back. It really depends on how the pitching prospects produce.

9:07	Caffeinated Mayonnaise: Oh, did I mess up? I asked a regular baseball question and all I’m seeing are fantasy Q’s! I need to lay off the caffeinated mayonnaise.

9:08	Paul Swydan: No, you’re fine. We answer both types. But yes, caffeinated mayonnaise is probably best consumed in moderation.

9:09	Smoky Joe Wood: Thoughts on Tzu-Wei Lin? Defense looked good, plate discipline looked good–obviously that OBP is a sample-size distortion, but still, could he be a candidate to be a late bloomer?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen him much but seems like a 0 to 2 WAR player.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’ve really liked what I’ve seen so far. Having said that, they need to give Brock Holt a shot to re-claim his job. But I’d be happy to see Deven Marrero leave and never return.

9:10	CarrotJuice: Wasn’t Aaron Judge already the favorite, even before Correa’s injury?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, especially with Trout not playing.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Maybe? Houston has been a lot better than New York, and some people think that is important.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Judging by the poll results, not the majority of people, but still.

9:12	Thundaar: If you are the Nationals are you done with your bullpen or are you still getting Robertson, etc?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Seems like a moot point now re: Robertson, but I think they should still try to upgrade, yes. Not like Ryan Madson is going to turn into Dennis Eckersley.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: They could still use a couple elite relievers. Their bullpen still reminds of the one the Tigers kept taking to the playoffs.

9:14

Smoky Joe Wood: Is it fair to say the reviews of the Kimbrel trade (e.g. on this site) were too tough on Dombrowski? So far it looks pretty great, between Margot’s slow development and Kimbrel’s awesomeness. I have mixed feelings myself about some of DD’s deals (and I didn’t like the Thornburg deal when it was made, much less now), but I also feel like his prior reputation for undervaluing prospects has affected the judgment of some trades that were actually fine (including the Sale trade). I will not be defending him if he trades Devers, but I don’t think he will.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I think others think DD could have gotten more in his prospect trades. No one knows for sure. DD is trying to win it all and tries to get the best pieces he can. Even this time he got a good bullpen piece.

9:17

Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think we were too tough on Dombrowski. The results of the players traded matter some, but that’s not the total factor. The prevailing opinion at the time was that Kimbrel shouldn’t have cost that much. Also, Margot still has a chance to be a 3 WAR CF for the next 5 years. That’s plenty of value, to say nothing of the other players.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Logan Allen has a 1.97 ERA and 100 Ks in 87 IP between A and High-A this year. That’s pretty good, I think.

9:18	Thundaar: Some NY guys have mixed feelings/doubts about Conforto. What say you?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I’d say that the Mets have spent a lot of time trying to downplay Conforto’s value, and that many fans will always appeal to authority, even when they shouldn’t. Conforto is fantastic.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: By “some NY guys” do you mean the Mets front office?

9:20	El Chupacabra: Do you have any concerns about Syndergaard’s injury proneness? I feel like he’s getting injured every year. Throwing the hardest fastball in baseball with a slider to match seems like it would cause a lot of injuries.

9:20	Paul Swydan: As long as he’s on the Mets, I’ll be very concerned.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m a little surprised he’s not on the DL more

9:22	LudeBurger: Ray. Romano. 😀

9:22	Paul Swydan: It’s the little things, isn’t it?

9:22	jkim: What is a deal Dodgers could make to get a shutdown bp? Would they give up Alvarez + Calhoun for Britton?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I told Mike I thought that seemed pretty steep for Britton given Britton’s earlier arm troubles this year. But I suppose you can’t rule it out.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems high

9:24	CarrotJuice: Too bad the Red Sox lost out on Todd Frazier. If only they had this blue chip 3B prospect who was tearing it up in the minors and Steamer already projects to be a nearly league average hitter in the bigs right now.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’d be pretty sweet.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Fake News

9:24	CarrotJuice: Do you think Yankees play Frazier at 1b?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I imagine he’d just platoon with Headley, but perhaps he and/or Headley will also see some time at 1B.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I think everyone will play 1B for the Yankees this year, long term, I will go with some over-priced veteran.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Yeah or Greg Bird

9:26	Christian: The Royals are having the worst night. The Tigers and White Sox’s futures are looking brighter by the day, Minnesota and Cleveland continue to lead them in the standings. Meanwhile, Royals present looks bleak, and their future looks much, much bleaker.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Yeah but they’re the ones who have the trophy the rest of them haven’t gotten for a decade-plus.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Also, I’m not convinced the 2017 Royals are dead yet.

9:26	Paul Swydan: That division is looking pretty winnable.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: They are going to trying for .500 record for at least five years at this point.

9:27	JD: how much of a boost does yonder get if he ends up in pinstripes?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Let’s see what the return for this White Sox trade is first before we dress up Alonso in pinstripes.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, one trade at a time

9:28	Paul Swydan: Also, Alonso’s spray chart isn’t pull-heavy, so might not matter that much unless he changed his approach.

9:29	1908wasnextyear: Outlier question: How common is it for a player to have a babip of .200 and an ops over .700 (i.e. Kyle Schwarber)? Seems like that would be a hard trick to pull off. FG article idea? Since you obviously need more Cubs content. 🙂

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Kyle Schwarber Elijah Dukes Mark McGwire Gary Roenicke John Wockenfuss Andre Thornton Pat Bourque Art Shamsky Johnny Blanchard Gus Triandos Eddie Robinson Ed Bailey Eddie Lukon

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I had to drop the OPS down to .690

9:29	Paul Swydan: Pat Bourque? Is that Ray’s brother?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Gus Triandos – shoutout to The Wire

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Who cares, a Wonkenfuss sighting

9:30	Nic: Is Aaron Judge finished or is this just a slump or some combination of both?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure he’s done. RIP Aaron Judge’s career, killed by an hour spent hitting home runs. SAD!

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Just a slump, they happen. Alcides Escobar has been in one for years.

9:31	Paul Swydan: lolol

9:31	Scoop: Seems like Maddon has stopped playing with his moving parts. Is it because his players have returned from the DL. Do you think he’ll return to late inning position switches?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure I agree, tbh.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on who is on the field.

9:32	Paul Swydan: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2017-lineups.shtml

9:32	Paul Swydan: 4 diff LF in last 4 games

9:33	Paul Swydan: 3 diff CG in last 5 games

9:33	Paul Swydan: 3 diff 2B in last 5 games

9:33	Paul Swydan: He couldn’t even sit still long enough to make Schwarber his DH for all 3 games in Baltimore, for crying out loud.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Maddon just can’t help himself.

9:34	Paul Swydan: The only reason you don’t see MORE of it is because he has so many good players.

9:35	Paul Swydan: But yes, always expect Joe Maddon to be very cute with position switches and starting lineups and anything else.

9:35	Jart: Would it be embarrassing for the Dodgers to have so many MLB ready(ish) prospects with nowhere to play them and not trade some of them away right now?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Embarrassing probably isn’t the right word, but it’d be better to trade them than ruin them the way they did to Urias.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Or ruin like Bellinger also ….

9:36	TJ: Drop Lucroy for Grandal? My league counts OPS so slightly more significant…feel like Lucroy gets me average and same counting stats as Grandal except HRs…thoughts?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Rather have Grandal, yes.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Pass

9:36	Rick: SP has been a tire fire this year, but I flipped Abreu, Cobb, Berrios for Murphy, Quintana, Schwarber. I done good, right?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Yup. Nice work, Rick!

9:37	Christian: Jeff, interesting article today re: fly-ball pitchers. Were those graphs generated in Tableau, I know some of you colleagues use that software? And if so, do you integrate Tableau and R much?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is fair. Really depends on team needs

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I went all over the place with them. One in excel, one in open office and “Danger Zone” was done in Paint for SABRE presentation

9:38	Tim: my OF has become pretty crowded: Schwarber, J Upton, Bruce, Conforto, and Trout (start @ UTIL), but I REALLY want to pick up CarGo…leave him out there?

9:39	Paul Swydan: You should not really want to pick up CarGo in general, or given your current OF options.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d pass

9:39	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Paul, Jeff, hey, shut up. I need a favor. I’ve unsuccessfully tried to acquire Altuve, Gordon, Hamilton, and Villar. I need steals desperately. Who should I try to get next?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Margot?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Turner?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Dyson?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Nunez

9:40	Paul Swydan: Cain or Merrifield?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Keirmeyer if you can afford the DL slot

9:40	Bobby McBoberson: Jays: Buyers or Sellers?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I made the case for them being light buyers yesterday.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I see them holding, gut feeling

9:41	Keith: What are the chances Votto wins MVP? Is the team too bad to give him a realistic chance?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Yeah, team is too bad, sorry.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he can with no real standouts. He does need to distance himself from pack and lead in some traditional stats.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Kneecapping Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw would probably help, too.

9:43	FamilyBro: Who should the yankees go after, frazier + robertson, or gray + alonso?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: The price for victory is never cheap

9:44	Paul Swydan: Gray and Alonso make sense, certainly.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Gray, I’m not sold on their starters. They have some arms in the minors who could relieve if needed

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’m the opposite – I’m not convinced the Yankees need to acquire an SP, and I don’t think Gray would automatically be their No. 2.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’d still think their 1-2 would be Severino-Tanaka.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: The playoffs are only 2 game series’s now?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul will be right back, computer issues.

9:46	Joe: Would you rather have Smoak or Chris Davis going forward in a standard fantasy league

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Smoak but close. Davis is having a good night with two dongs so far.

9:47	CB: The Sabermetrics Library says a .710 OPS is about league average. Is this figure current with the offensive climate of the pst season and a half? If not, what is “league average” OPS?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: .749

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

9:47	Paul Swydan: Hi I’m back, sorry.

9:48	Jeff Gilooly: Seems like TJ injuries are down this year (and last?). Random variance, or changes in pitcher conditioning and/or usage?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Would vote random variance.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I think 2nd TJS are down but some random variance is probably at work

9:49	jkim: Rockies fans seem to be really pissed about wRC+ underrating their offense b/c of the park factor. Just how much of an outlier is Coors, and could the adjustment err on the wrong side?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Rockies fans should get over it.

9:50	Paul Swydan: And/or deal with it.

9:50	Paul Swydan: http://imgur.com/6IGDHJo

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: The difference between home and away is crazy. It’s something like one run for pitchers.

9:51	Paul Swydan: The adjustment may not be correct, but any change we made to wRC+ wouldn’t outweigh the fact that the Rockies are lacking in hitting talent this year.

9:53	Matt: Diamondbacks or Rockies making the wild card spot? Or both?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Still voting both, for now.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: D-Backs but I like both their chances

9:55	Thundaar: So did the Nationals just screw up? Wouldn’t Kahnle and Robertson be the much better pair to have for the postseason?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I mean, can we at least wait and see who the Yankees are giving up before we say that other teams screwed up?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said

9:56	Jesus Christ: Can I get a question posted? Asked three good ones…

9:56	Paul Swydan: This is the only question I see posted by Jesus Christ, so…

9:57	Paul Swydan: We hide duplicate messages now, so if you posted the same Q three times I wouldn’t see any of them.

9:57	Jesus Christ: Ha! Who is the best option in the tigers bullpen to take the closer role if Justin Wilson bounces?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Alex Wilson but not sure.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Not sure the Tigers are going to need to worry about having many save opportunities, but … Alex Wilson and Shane Greene seem to be the next men up. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-july-17-2017/

9:58	Judas: You will deny Him (questions) three times.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I swear to you I do not know the man!

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: This chat just got a little biblical