FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/24/13

by Paul Swydan

July 24, 2013

6:34	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is on vacation this week, but Chris and I will be here at 9 pm ET to answer all of your baseballing questions (polls at bottom of transcript). Because you work hard for the money and we better treat you right.

6:36	Paul Swydan: So hard for it, honey. http://vimeo.com/5037293

6:42	Paul Swydan: RE: Marvel vs. DC – http://www.slashfilm.com/see-how-marvel-is-out-earning-dc-at-the-box-office-graphic/

9:01	Paul Swydan: Well well well. It looks like I am actually going to be flying solo tonight, so let’s get to it. You’ve got questions. I’ve got replies. They might even be answers, who knows? The night is young.

9:01	Comment From Jaack Why is this chat on Wednesdays now? Trying to move into Dave Cameron’s shadow?

9:01	Paul Swydan: No nothing sinister. I went to the Red Sox game last night, so we’re chatting tonight!

9:01	Comment From Roy Hibbert Will kemp win mvp next year

9:02	Paul Swydan: Going to say no. Sorry.

9:02	Comment From Roy hanley or tulo?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Still Tulo.

9:02	Comment From Dave All the pirates moves minus Jonathan Sanchez have worked out. What’s their record if everything blew up in their faces? Are they still a 100 loss team?

9:02	Paul Swydan: No, not even remotely. At worst, they’d be a .500 team. Lot of talent there now.

9:02	Comment From Hopeless Joe I voted ‘I don’t care’ for every option. Why should I care.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Oh, Hopeless Joe.

9:02	Comment From Miro Keep four for 2014: Chris Davis, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Reyes, Longoria, Pedroia

9:04	Paul Swydan: Answer not going through. Ugh.

9:04

Paul Swydan: Longo and Pedroia are musts. If you think your SS options will be limited, then you have to keep Reyes. And then of the other two, I guess it would come down to your competitive situation. If you’re aiming to win in ’14, Davis. If not, hold on to Giancarlo. But I am not as high on him as others.

9:04	Paul Swydan: There it is. Hate when that happens.

9:04	Comment From Dave Hello?

9:04	Comment From Dave Are you gonna answer any questions?

9:05	Paul Swydan: You have to read the fine print, Dave. We start at 9 pm ET.

9:05	Comment From Kris Who should the Braves send to the bullpen?

9:05	Paul Swydan: The Braves should send Tim Hudson to the trading block.

9:05	Comment From Rocket Roger Will Neftali Feliz contribute this year? Long-term, is he a starter or reliever?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I say no for this year. Long-term, no clue. You always hope for guys to be able to start, but the injury clouds that.

9:06	Comment From MT J. Parks just said he has 8 cubs in his top 101 prospects. Outside of Baez, Bryant, Soler, Almora and Alcantara, any guesses who the other three might be?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Well, I would imagine that Olt and Delmonico might have a shot, or perhaps someone else that came over in their recent hauls, but I’m not a prospect hound, so I could be way off.

9:07	Comment From JV what are the 3 most likely destinations for David Price this winter?

9:08	Paul Swydan: That’s a hard one to peg, since basically every team in baseball would like to have him. But I’m not convinced that they will HAVE to trade him this winter either.

9:08	Comment From JV Better keeper the next 2 seasons–Kyle Seager or Patrick Corbin?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Seager

9:09	Comment From Emmett It hasn’t gotten any attention, but Adrian Gonzales seems to have gotten a lot of his power back, being on pace for over 25 homeruns. Is there a chance he returns to an elite level?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think this is probably as close as he gets to being elite again, and Dodgers fans should be thrilled with this level of production.

9:09	Comment From Someone I just completed my first fantasy mega trade: my Hanley, Longoria, Kipnis, Iwakuma, Cuddyer, and JZimm for his Segura, McCutchen, Cano, Lincecum, Freeman, Kuroda, Corbin, and Rasmus. Did I do OK? (5×5 redraft league.)

9:11	Paul Swydan: You have more high beta guys – Freeman, Lincecum, Rasmus – but if they all perform as they have recently you should be OK. I think you take the biggest hit at SS.

9:11	Comment From zack Do you guys trust good Liriano to stick around all season?

9:11	Paul Swydan: At this point, yes.

9:12	Comment From zack Is it kind of funny/sad that Yankees third basemen have so ruinously awful that a broken down AROD is a massive upgrade?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yes. More sad than funny, but definitely a mixture of both.

9:12	Comment From F U Jobu Jon Villar worth a flyer? Upside?

9:12	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jonathan-villar-junior-lake-deep-league-wire/

9:13	Paul Swydan: Podhorzer wrote him up the other day. He’s fast and is apparently hitting leadoff, so that makes him worth a flier IMO. Speed is hard to come by these days.

9:13	Comment From Cal Guy Do you see Rendon as the starting 2B for the Nats in 2014, or do you see him at another position or another team (starting at SS today for showcasing?)

9:14	Paul Swydan: Definitely not another team. Not sure about 2B/3B, but I am confident that he will be a starting position player for the Nats next year.

9:14	Comment From zack Ignoring contracts, who would you rather have for the next 5 years: Harper, Stanton, or McCutchen?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Harper or McCutchen. Not Stanton. Just not a huge believer in him staying healthy and/or being the monster we all want him to be.

9:14	Comment From zack Is the NL MVP race a two horse contest? Gotta be McCutchen or Yadier Molina right?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I still say that Carlos Gonzalez is a legitimate candidate.

9:15	Comment From Nick Is the goal of a team to make money or win championships?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Depends on the owner. For most, it’s to make money. Which they do before they sell one ticket.

9:15	Comment From Redd Need wise and sage advise – Keeper league. Keep 14. His $13 Rizzo for my Zach Wheeler $14 and Xander Bogaerts ($8). I’m stacked with lots of young guys and ready for all of them to move up at once. Do I make the deal? Thx

9:17

Paul Swydan: I would hold on to Wheeler and Bogaerts. Both have a chance to be special, and in the near-term I don’t see Rizzo as being a difference maker at 1B. For instance, this year his 109 wRC+ ranks 20th among first basemen. A 10 percent improvement would only get him to 12th place. He will get better, but he’s going to have to get a LOT better to be a star first baseman.

9:17	Comment From Eddie Does Toronto’s record in any way vindicate Miami for their offseason fire sale?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:17	Comment From 2ndHS All those who answered “Comic books are for kids” are terrible people and why the world currently sucks as much as it does. True fact.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Hard to argue with this logic. Especially since I literally have a deluxe hardbound copy of “Absolute Watchmen” on the table to my left.

9:18	Comment From zack Szymborski thinks the pirates should go all in, deal for Cliff Lee. Agree or disagree?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Agree. Flags fly forever.

9:19	Paul Swydan: And the Bucs are about to lose about 60% of their audience to Steelers training camp.

9:19

Comment From 2ndHS
So, the Brewers got a Top 200 talent/top 10 org(BAL) talent for K-Rod. They should get more out of Axford if they do deal him. Will it be closer to a to 100 guy or just more than one top 200 type/ top 10 org guy? Gross generalization here of course. Really just looking for your general thoughts on an Axford return.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I don’t see them getting as much for Axford as they did for K-Rod. K-Rod has an extensive track record of success. More than a decade in fact. Axford is not even remotely that bankable.

9:20	Comment From GSon Rockin the Kazmir = Comeback Player of the Year..right now?..

9:20	Paul Swydan: Thank you for the reminder that it’s about time for me to do my “early look at Comeback Player of the Year” story. Kazmir will likely be one of the chief candidates.

9:20	Comment From GSon Which current division leader (Red Sox, Tigers, A’s Braves, Cardinals or Dodgers) are the most vulnerable to being topped/passed..?

9:21	Paul Swydan: The Dodgers, certainly.

9:21	Paul Swydan: And then the A’s and Cardinals.

9:21	Comment From Leo What do you think ATL will do with their starters – Beachy, Alex Wood, Medlen & Maholm all seem to be vying for 2 spots?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Again, I think they need to deal Hudson. If they still have too many guys, I put Wood back in the ‘pen. He has the shortest track record.

9:22	Comment From Guest Who are the worst everyday players in the majors?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Right now, by WAR, it’s Keppinger, Melky and Starlin. None of whom I would have pegged. BJ Upton too. Didn’t see that coming, wow.

9:23	Comment From Erik What is Alex Woods value if any this year. What is his upside?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I think he holds a great deal of value, but he’s been relieving for most of the year, so I would stick him back in the ‘pen if/when Beachy returns.

9:24	Comment From GSon Can you help Dave train his puppy not to bite?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Actually, Chris is the expert dog trainer of the group.

9:25	Comment From zack Hanley has a higher wRC+ of 213, which is higher than Miguel Cabrera’s.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I understand that. But his last two seasons were 97 and 106. Tulo meanwhile is at 159 this year, and his last two years were 133 and 115. I’ll still take Tulo.

9:26	Comment From Kyle Are the Red Sox still in first place at the end of this series?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I say yes. This one’s not over. Napoli just went smash.

9:27	Comment From Ttttt SSS somewhat on Hanley this year as well

9:27	Paul Swydan: Yes. Not to mention the .400 BABIP that is high, even for him.

9:27	Comment From Kyle Think Peavy gets traded? Where is the most likely destination?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I do. Can’t speculate on destination. Just seeing rumors pick up for him today. He will not be cheap though, considering a) what Garza got and b) that Peavy is signed for next year.

9:28	Comment From Ceej ROS+14 Jose Fernandez or Profar?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Going to surprise myself here and say Fernandez. It SHOULD be Profar, but since they’ve turned him into a utility player I don’t like his chances of being the player he should be. Which is a shame.

9:29	Comment From juan pierres mustache Agon did talk about how he changed his swing to take advantage of Fenway in a way that led to higher BA, more doubles, less HR. Any chance he’s made another change in LA?

9:30

Paul Swydan: If he’s smart, the change he has made is just to see ball, hit ball. For one, that is always the best strategy, because if you’re trying to change constantly from ballpark to ballpark I imagine you’d lose your mechanics. But also because I don’t think you can game Dodger Stadium in that way.

9:30	Comment From Yo Why do people have trouble spelling Gonzalez? Also, he used to be a 35 homer guy.

9:31	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. Some people want to just use the ‘S.’ This happened all the time when I was with the Rockies in relation to Carlos Gonzalez.

9:31	Comment From GSon Do the Yankees become “sellers” at the deadline?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I doubt it.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Think they’ll just stand pat and see what happens. They owe that much to Mo.

9:31	Comment From zack Cameron has Price in Chicago next season

9:32	Paul Swydan: Not a bad choice if they decide to sell, but again, I just don’t see them as absolutely having to trade him.

9:32	Comment From Hopeless Joe The White Sox are one of the more boring teams in baseball, but apparently have 2 more Managers of the Year than anyone else. Why is baseball?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Why isn’t baseball?

9:32	Comment From Gary I just want you to remind everyone that Alexei for Martinez rumor was patently false.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Noted. I just about fell out of my chair when I saw that.

9:33	Comment From brad delmonico is a brewer

9:33	Paul Swydan: Right, right, sorry.

9:33	Comment From Ceej Viller or Brad Miller ROS?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Miller.

9:33	Comment From F U Jobu What would George say if he could see his beloved Yankees today?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Steinbrenner or Costanza?

9:34	Comment From zack What kind of package would it take to convince the cubs to deal the shark?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Probably a pretty hefty one. I think the Cubs will be able to contend within the window when he is still on the team, so to me they have no reason to deal him.

9:34	Comment From Worm Turner What are your feelings on whether the A’s will become buyers, do you thing the Heyman article today is made of moonbeams or is this a real possibility?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I didn’t see Heyman’s article today, but I see no reason why the A’s wouldn’t be buyers….

9:35	Comment From zack Can you think of any reason for a marlins fan to have any hope?

9:35	Paul Swydan: They never had a good plan before and still have managed to win two World Series. Which is more than some teams can say. Rockies, Mariners, few others still don’t even have the one WS championship.

9:35	Comment From GSon Better plan: Indians trade Masterson to the Red Sox (three prospects), Chris Perez to the Pirates (Two prospects) and Asdrubal Cabrera to the Cardinals (Three prospects), or the Indians acquire a LHRP (James Russell) and take their chances?

9:36	Paul Swydan: The latter. The Tigers have seemed pretty mortal lately.

9:36	Paul Swydan: And they didn’t hire Francona to sell at the deadline either.

9:36	Comment From Dave With Polanco, Hanson, and Taillon on their way, next year could be very interesting for the Bucs, right?

9:37	Paul Swydan: It could be. Or they could just trade a couple of them for Lee or Peavy or SP X and make THIS year very interesting.

9:37	Comment From Gila Monster Stanton to the Red Sox for Boegarts,Bradley, and eitheer Webster/Owens? Which side do you like more?

9:38	Paul Swydan: The side the Marlins get. The Red Sox already traded them one shortstop of the future. Also, the Red Sox are third in OF WAR. Why exactly do they need Stanton again?

9:38	Comment From jesse someone just dropped Aaron hill in my league, he’s a better flex spot than freese/rasmus/franklin?

9:38	Paul Swydan: At this point, no. He’s been awful, and those other three guys have been decent to great lately.

9:38	Comment From zack Will three NL central teams make the playoffs? I can’t see the nats, phillies, Dbacks or rockies posting a better record than the pirates, reds, or cards

9:39	Paul Swydan: It’s looking more and more likely every day.

9:39	Comment From jesse So ARod got a doctor who MLB already reprimanded for PED connections to be the guy to give a second opinion on his injury??? We complain about guys having PR handlers write them fake statements but when you dont have decent ones this train wreck happens.

9:40	Paul Swydan: That is sort of mind boggling. It’s close to a Buford “Mad Dog” Tannen move. Which I guess would make MLB Marty McFly, so now I don’t like that analogy anymore.

9:40

Comment From 2ndHS
Really? You think K-Rod gets more than Axford? I mean, I’m not saying you’re wrong or anything (I honestly don’t know), but K-Rod was almost out of baseball because no one wanted to sign him. Axford had a bad year last year and a bad 3 or 4 starts this year, but has otherwise been lights out.

9:41	Paul Swydan: K-Rod going awhile being unsigned kind of surprised me, and I think it probably had more to do with his personal issues than his abilities as a pitcher.

9:41	Comment From John I typed “Mmum” my name. Autocorrect on my iPad changed it to John. ??

9:41	Paul Swydan: Uh.

9:41	Comment From zack Will the rangers turn Profar into the next Ben Zobrist?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I certainly hope not.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Zobrist became Zobrist because he had to.

9:41	Comment From Kyle So, all things considered, would you rather trade for Peavy or Santana?

9:43

Paul Swydan: Tough. I trust Peavy’s stuff more, but he’s also more injury prone. I think if the price is the same, I’d roll the dice on Santana, because at least I know he’ll be healthy. And that if he reverts, at least he’s gone after the season. If you trade for Peavy and then he gets hurt, you’re looking at a potentially long 2014 season of injury news.

9:43	Comment From 2ndHS Addendum to my last comment: Axford is also under team control for two years after this season.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Shouldn’t be a consideration for a team going for it. Especially since Axford may outprice his value.

9:43	Comment From Dave Would you believe that Andrew McCutchen dropped his K% by 5% this season?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I would. He’s a great player.

9:44	Comment From Iunoooknn Baseball isn’t because I’m in India 🙁

9:44	Paul Swydan: Sorry to hear that.

9:44	Comment From Norvell Would you rather have your voice sound like Joe Buck announcing a game every time you spoke, or have your voice sound like the lead singer of Alice in Chains any time you sang?

9:44	Paul Swydan: The latter.

9:44	Comment From Shark Mapiro Asdrubal for Carlos Martinez, who hangs up?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Cardinals.

9:44	Comment From zack How do you think Cameron and Sullivan reacted to the news that the Mariners might be buyers?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Probably with a silent, sad shake of their heads.

9:45	Comment From Guest What would the George Steinbrenner on Seinfeld say about the Yankees today?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Probably something about how they all needed to eat the same lunch every day. Possibly a calzone from Pequino’s Pizza!

9:46	Comment From Eddie What went wrong for Washington?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I think it’s more like what went right for Washington last season.

9:46	Comment From Tim Hudson Pretty sure I’m done for the year 🙁

9:46	Paul Swydan: Oh, snap. From Rotoworld: Tim Hudson had to be carted off the field with a right foot injury after the Mets’ Eric Young stepped on him at first base. Jul 24 – 9:42 PM Source: Mark Bowman on Twitter

9:47	Paul Swydan: Guess it’s a bad year to be a pitcher with the last name “Hudson.”

9:47	Comment From Celery Caps At what point will teams cease giving ridiculous monster contracts to players, it seems to just keep ramping up. Pujols is almost looking like he’ll be a DH in 2014. Can this trend sustain itself?

9:48

Paul Swydan: Of course it can. The teams are swimming with cash. Between TV deals, MLBAM money and sponsorship deals at league and team level, most owners are banking $100M before they even sell a ticket. Any owner who says he is losing money is either doing some very creative accounting, is lying, or both.

9:48	Comment From Eddie Why doesn’t MLB retire the Chief Wahoo logo? That thing is patently offensive.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. I think that’s more on the Indians, to be honest.

9:49	Comment From Zach Is it plausible that we will ever have a semi-accurate stat to measure a player’s confidence level? I usually hear it as a traditionalists argument against sabermetrics. I have absolutely no clue if or how it can be quantified.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure that that is plausible, but then I’m not a psychologist, or psychiatrist. Or whomever would make that call.

9:50	Comment From Dave I’d rather the Pirates take their changes on this season and keep their top 4 prospects intact.

9:51	Paul Swydan: And that’s totally fair. But I think if you want a reason as to why you strike when the iron is hot, look no further than the 2013 Washington Nationals.

9:51	Comment From Guest Potentially a two-part question: Where were you sitting at Fenway last night?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I was sitting in the center field bleachers just behind the Red Sox bullpen/triangle. Not sure what the other part of the question is….

9:52	Comment From juan pierres mustache if the rules were changed so that 1 swinging strike = immediate strikeout, would marco scutaro be one of the best hitters in the league?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Probably. Although that league would totally suck.

9:52	Comment From Mike Would you rather recieve 1 top prospect or a couple good prospects from a trade

9:52	Paul Swydan: 1 top prospect

9:52	Comment From Jaack Back to the Future 3 reference? I mean, its not a bad movie outside of the whole Doc as a romantic lead thing, but there’s not enough difference between Mad Dog and Biff Tannen to make that difference.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, Biff and Marty never had a guns drawn, planned duel. Their duels were a little more impromptu.

9:53	Comment From Michael wow. bad luck for huddy.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Eh, he’s had a good run.

9:54	Comment From Kris EY Jr was crying as he walked off the field. Pretty gruesome injury. Hudson was covering 1st and EY stepped on his ankle/achilles.

9:54	Paul Swydan: EY2 is a really good dude, I’m sure he was shook up by it. I haven’t watched it yet, but it doesn’t sound like it was intentional.

9:54	Comment From zack What do you think the odds are that Cliff Lee would waive his no trade clause to go to the Pirates?

9:54	Paul Swydan: 100 percent

9:54	Comment From the humber games Looks like the Brave’s pitching logjam just fixed itself

9:55	Paul Swydan: Funny how that worked out, eh?

9:55	Comment From jesse thats why you can never have too much pitching

9:56	Paul Swydan: It is. And luckily for the Braves, they have it. Washington doesn’t, and that’s been a big part of their problem. Which they exacerbated by signing Haren. What a joke that was.

9:56	Comment From Kyle #2 Consider player A & player B. They have identical offensive numbers. Player A however, had his numbers spread more evenly over the entire season, i.e. consistent. Is there any value to having player A over player B?

9:57	Paul Swydan: That likely depends on the makeup of your team and how the other players performed. You would think the answer in general is yes, but it’s sort of hard to say for sure.

9:57	Comment From Mr Moto ROS Seager or Zimmerman?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Seager.

9:57	Comment From jesse EP 3 of The Bridge is on FX tonight, have you parttook any yet?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Oh, good reminder. I DVR’d the series, but haven’t had a chance to watch yet. I used to hear some pretty gruesome stories about Juarez when I lived in Denver.

9:57	Comment From Eddie Should the Cubs extend T. Wood? Try and sell high? Or just go year to year and see?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I would go year to year unless you could extend him for very cheap. Which might be possible, because he’s the sort of guy who may appreciate the stability.

9:58	Comment From Eddie Are you worried about Beachy’s control when he returns?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yes, control tends to come back slower. Having said that, it seems to me that they have been very conservative and have given him more rehab starts than we are used to seeing these days. Perhaps that will help him pick up his control quicker.

9:59	Comment From jesse RE: Juarez good book about soccer and the city http://www.npr.org/2012/03/28/149166477/death-drugs-salvation-and-soccer-in-juarez

10:00

Paul Swydan: Very cool, thanks for the recommendation.

10:00

Comment From Nick
Thanks for the chat, Mr. Swydan.

10:01

Paul Swydan: No problem guys. I think I am going to call it a night though. Juice is running low on the laptop, and I’m too lazy to go find the power cord.

We’ll be back to Tuesday night next week. As always, thanks for hanging out with me!