FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/3/13

by Paul Swydan

July 3, 2013

6:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here with you a 9 pm ET to cram in ONE more chat before you saunter off into the holiday sunset. So get your questions in now, and I’ll get some polls up after I eat me some dinner. See you soon! (see polls at bottom of transcript)

9:01	Paul Swydan: Let’s light this candle! Jeff may be a bit late, so you’re stuck with me for now.

9:01	Comment From Jaack My streak of 28 consecutive FG after Dark chats attened was broken last week because Utah is on Mountain Time and not Pacific. So, I’m petitioning the White House: http://wh.gov/lcFUd

9:01	Paul Swydan: Come on people, get the vote out!

9:02	Comment From Mr. Jones Thoughts on Manny Ramirez getting a minor league contract with Texas?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I feel like there’s only a 20% chance or so of him actually seeing time in the majors this season. If anything, he’ll have the chance to retire with a little more dignity than playing in Taiwan would have afforded him.

9:03	Comment From F U Jobu ETA for Alex Meyer?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I talked to Brandon Warne about this when I saw the question. He said that Meyer won’t get back on the hill until August, and probably won’t reach the majors until next season. Which is a bummer, since I have him on at least one — and I think two — fantasy teams.

9:04	Comment From F U Jobu Jackie Bradley Jr. the starting CF for Boston next yr?

9:04	Paul Swydan: You know, Ellsbury is doing his thing again this season. So now I’m not so sure. Ellsbury WILL be 30 next year, and I’d rather see youth be served, but it’s no longer the done deal it seemed in April.

9:05	Comment From Puig2NY13 Papelbon: 121 TBF. Puig: 112 PAs. Also, Pap says veterans should get priority but wasn’t he the one who wanted to close instead of Mo a few years back? Fucking hypocrite.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Well, I apologize for the profanity there. I didn’t see that in my window.

9:06	Paul Swydan: That aside, Papelbon is an opportunist. He isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he is well versed on creating a stir with an overreacting media. Why anyone listens to word one out of his mouth is beyond me.

9:06	Comment From Didi Smalls Hey Paul, why were you the number-seven pick in the drafting of the poets? That team overdrafted you by several rounds. I’m sure the team holding on to the #8 pick was ecstatic that Dante was still available.

9:07	Paul Swydan: It’s A Tribe Called Quest reference. From “Oh My God.”

9:07	Paul Swydan: http://rapgenius.com/A-tribe-called-quest-oh-my-god-lyrics

9:07	Comment From Lil Tim Dodgers NL West favorites yet? They’re, what, 2.5 games back now? That division is a joke (remember that year when the Padres won the West with

9:07	Comment From Lil Tim Dodgers NL West favorites yet? They’re, what, 2.5 games back now? That division is a joke. (Remember when the Padres won the West with like a 82-80 record?)

9:08	Paul Swydan: That’s not inconceivable this year. The record I mean. I do not yet think the Dodgers are the favorite. I don’t think there IS a favorite in that division.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I think Jeff is in the house…

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: There is still plenty of time for Marmol to blow a few games.

9:08	Paul Swydan: BOOM YOSTED!

9:09	Comment From Fostar What do you think of Leonys Martin?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Got a text from my wife to pick up a little booze while out, so I obliged .

9:09	Paul Swydan: I like Leonys Martin. I never got the panic over the Rangers losing Hamilton.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: It seems he was a season late getting promoted, but is a good player.

9:10	Comment From Fostar Dynasty Keeper League. Sonny Gray or Aaron Sanchez?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Gray is closer to the majors, but Sanchez may have the higher ceiling, so depends on where you are in your competitive cycle.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Pass, not sure what team Gray is even on.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Oakland.

9:11	Comment From zack Given their contracts, who has more trade value: Felix or Iwakuma?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I am looking him up right now

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Felix because he is Felix

9:12	Paul Swydan: Still Felix.

9:12	Comment From Fostar Will Adam Eaton have any impact in the second half?

9:13	Paul Swydan: He should, but with Parra having such a great year, his role may be more muted than it was expected to be at the start of the season.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think he is a game changer.

9:13	Comment From Chris Who is on the faster rebuild track the Marlins or Cubs?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs, basically more money.

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’ll say the Cubs, because I just have no faith in the Marlins properly executing a full rebuild before dealing away veterans.

9:14	Comment From Cal Guy In a dynasty league would you rather keep Taveras or Correa?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Taveras for me.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:15	Comment From Prince Fielder What’s up with me? I gotta be better than this, right?

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I read somewhere he is hurt, may have been lingering.

9:16	Paul Swydan: You’ve had seasons like this before. This season, 126 wRC+. Age 24, 125 wRC+. So, it happens. Not everyone can be a monster every year.

9:16	Comment From Nick Can the Pirates succeed in the playoffs with their offense as it’s currently composed?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I think so. But like Cameron said the other day, some help at 1B or RF would be a big help.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Once in the playoffs, anything can happen. I just don’t see the pitching holding up. Locke must have made a deal with the devil. 7 Hits, 2 walks, 1 run tonight.

9:17	Comment From Anthony I just traded my Goldschmidt and Altuve for his Rizzo and Ellsbury in a 5×5 roto. Goldschmidt will be $23 next year and Rizzo will be $11 with our cap being $260. How’d I do for this year and next?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Decent when you consider the money, but I like the side you gave up more if I have to pick one.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Sorry.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, depends on depth at 2B and OF. I agree straight up, the other side won.

9:18	Comment From zack Better ROS: Garza or Liriano?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Liriano.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Garza, I never bet on Liriano.

9:19	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:19	Comment From zack Would Roberto Hernandez be better if he changed his name back to Fausto Carmona?

9:20	Paul Swydan: No, he’d still sucked, because he sucked when his name was Fausto Carmona. He’s Exhibit A for the Rays not being a magical font of pitcher rejuvenation.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: No, he will still be a disappointment.

9:21	Comment From Jesse Wait! what day is it! was I supposed to have worked today?!?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Relax, what’s the worst that could have happened?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Your team signed Francoeur?

9:22

Comment From Charlie Hustle
I’m the commissioner of a keeper league for 6 years now. It’s mostly the same 10 guys since year 1. I want to make some changes to the stat categories and the way we keep minor league prospects. We’re about 50/50 on the changes. How can I persuade a couple old school thinking guys to think outside the normal baseball box?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Make some concessions, probably. You’ll have to find out what they want and agree to those as well. Maybe throw out inserting an extra DL spot as a carrot. That’s always a popular one in my leagues.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t mind old categories, makes it fantasy vice real life. Best bribe, good stippers and bourbon.

9:24	Comment From Interrogator Where were you last night!!!!!???

9:24	Paul Swydan: I went to the Red Sox game last night. It’s not my fault. I was supposed to go tonight, but David Laurila – who I share tickets with – wanted me to switch. So blame him!

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul had to go watch baseball.

9:24	Comment From Moses Given age and wrist trouble, is $5 Teixeira a keeper in ottoneu 4×4? Feels weird asking that after thinking that pick was a home run on draft night

9:25	Paul Swydan: Wait and see. If you absolutely HAVE to decide tonight, then no would be my answer.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: He is almost done for and should be had for the same price next year.

9:26	Comment From inning The Standings page has the Dodgers winning it.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Hmm. Well alright.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure if I trust anything from FanGraphs…. oh wait …. it is perfect.

9:27	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Do either of you do Draftstreet? I want to try it but I also don’t want to lose all my money.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I don’t. I’ve looked into it. My feeling is that if you’re not devoting a good chunk of time to it, you’re going to lose money. But if you put in the time and effort, you could make some good side money.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t, I really no time this summer.

9:28	Paul Swydan: He doesn’t even have enough time to put verbs in his sentences!

9:28	Comment From 2ndHS Is anyone outside of Milwaukee excited about Johnny Hellweg?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: and that.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Who?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: He should go far in the Milb name bracket.

9:29	Comment From Jake Arrieta Why did the Orioles give up on me? Do I suck?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, but at this point in the season they couldn’t trust you. The Cubs have the luxury of having time to figure out what’s up with your current control problems.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: You kind of remind of Scherzer and I don’t think the Orioles should have given up on you. I kind of wonder if you are a problem in the clubhouse.

9:31	Comment From Puig2NY13 No one said no vulgarity… Sorry about that.

9:31	Paul Swydan: No worries.

9:31	Comment From Rick What do you expect from Johnny Cueto RoS?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Nothing, at the moment. It seems like he can’t stay healthy.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing but DL trips, his motion (twist) is causing the injury. He will need to change his motion to solve the problem. I wrote about it a month or so ago.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: He knows he needs to change.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Link us Jeff!

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/johnny-cuetos-twist/

9:32	Comment From Interrogator Where were YOU last night, Jeff!!!?? Don’t avoid the question!

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah Jeff, inquiring minds want to know!

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Catching up on Game of Thrones.

9:33	Paul Swydan: I don’t watch that. (ducks)

9:33	Comment From Someone I’ve had 7 of my questions (or comments) responded to today. Last time, I got zero responses. What’s the deal?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I dunno. You’re asking good questions tonight?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Regression’s a bitch.

9:34	Comment From Someone 8, now!

9:34	Comment From Charlie Hustle I tend to keep 2-3 SP. I have Felix, Bumgarner, Hamels, Shields, Carlos Martinez. Felix and Bumgarner are obvious. The other 3?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Right now I’d have a hard time recommending Hamels. So, if you’re going for it next year, Shields. If not, Martinez.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Shields, Martinez then …………………Hamels

9:35	Comment From Billy Why did the Dodgers accumulate four good (or at least decent) outfielders in Crawford, Ethier and Kemp with Puig on his way last year all on big money? With AGon occupying first where did they plan to put them all?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Who said anything about Ethier being good?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Always try to go younger on pitchers (previous question)

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Because Kemp was going to spend half the year on the DL.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Ethier has a 99 wRC+ this year, and is 31 years old. The only question is why did the Dodgers cave and sign him? It was a horrible decision then and remains a horrible decision now.

9:36	Comment From Caliban Why am I at work right now?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Because you’re an upstanding person who is doing the right thing, even when you should be getting hammered and watching baseball.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: To sell me fireworks.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Also to sell Jeff fireworks.

9:37	Comment From Jesse do you play in any h2h leagues? Im in my 1st 5X5 H2H league and it just feels like too much noise.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I used to be in a huge one which crumbled after 5-6 years. It seems to even out, but the playoffs are a huge crap shoot.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I HATEHATEHATEHATEHATEHATEHATE straight head to head leagues in fantasy baseball. I barely even like it in fantasy football. You could theoretically count Scoresheet as head to head, but I don’t.

9:39	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Isn’t it kinda crazy how Mauer has a higher WAR than Piazza and Berra?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Is that true?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: looking it up right now.

9:40	Paul Swydan: He has less than Piazza…by a lot actually.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Berra too.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, he is not even close.

9:41	Comment From Matt Kemp Guess my average draft position for 2014

9:41	Paul Swydan: 80’s.

9:41	Comment From Sgt. Pepper I rechecked and it was only through age thirty. I’ll go learn to read now.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: 4th to 6th round, some one with draft on up side

9:42	Paul Swydan: Ahhhhhhh. That DOES make a lot of sense. Oops, sorry Jeff.

9:42	Comment From Skeptic Should I start playing fantasy baseball? You guys seem pretty into it. Also, you have jobs and stuff, so it’s not like it’ll ruin my life. (Although in the last month or so 2 different FanGraphs writers have mentioned the fact that they take antidepressants, so… I don’t know.)

9:43

Paul Swydan: Well, I’ve never seen anything about anyone here taking antidepressants, but I’m not sure I would correlate playing fantasy baseball with depression. Even if your team does suck. And just about all of my teams suck this year.

To answer your question, yes, I enjoy fantasy baseball a great deal and would heartily recommend it.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Start with one league and take your lumps.

9:43	Comment From Jaack (Joe Mauer is still behind Mike Piazza before 30, though its really close)

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice to see Ted Simmons mentioned: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,30&filter=&players=0

9:44	Paul Swydan: It was also on bWAR, not fWAR. Sgt. Pepper has already been assigned to go yell “Bloody Mary” 10 times at a dark mirror as punishment.

9:44	Comment From Guest can loney still bat around 300 and slug 420 ros? he seems to have relaxed without any of the crushing LA pressure now

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: As long as TB maintains the platoon.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I would say no, but he has certainly been a pleasant surprise.

9:45	Comment From Guest I’m surprised. Zips has Goldschmidit and Rizzo nearly identical ros and Ellsbury is an update over Altuve. Did I misjudge how good Goldschmidt is?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I think I just like Goldschmidt more than Rizzo. Again, given the salaries, it probably is a fair deal, especially if you needed the 2B help.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: In fantasy, I like Gold’s SB. Also, I find it easier to find OF than 2B/MI.

9:46	Comment From Poll Action Peanut Butter Cheerios or Cinnamon Toast Crunch?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Those are both good points Jeff.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Also, CT Crunch. I only eat plain Cheerios.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a cereal eater, but it is almost always frosted mini wheats.

9:48	Comment From Kris Bryant Am I dumb enough to turn down $6m from the Cubs and risk injury or being picked by the Fish next year?

9:48	Paul Swydan: No. Boras is just being Boras.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: He will sign, Boras has to hold out with someone at the top of the draft, always does, always will.

9:48	Comment From Skeptic Dayn Perry mentioned it (the antidepressants, that is) in a podcast. And Blanchman named Peralta to his All-Star team so he’ll remember to take his Cymbalta during the game. But yeah, I think I’ll give it a shot.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Oh. Ok then. Yes, still play fantasy baseball.

9:49	Comment From Jesse I mean even a bad fantasy baseball team can’t be as depressing as say the Royals…..

9:49	Paul Swydan: Poor Jeff.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Very true.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Speaking of which…

9:50	Comment From Fostar Should the Royals avoid drafting pitchers…or any position. Seems like they are awful at developing players.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: … and finds the bottle of tequila he just bought.

9:50	Paul Swydan: What kind of tequila?

9:50	Comment From Caliban And Adrian Gonzalez crushes an upper-decker…this Dodgers lineup is starting to look scary again.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: The developmental side is a joke. And they don’t consider plate discipline at all when drafting early in the draft.

9:51	Paul Swydan: And just wait until Crawford gets back.

9:52	Comment From Jesse Last 30 days 236/349/315 1HR 1SB. Quick NAME that UPTON!

9:52	Paul Swydan: Gonna guess Justin.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Justin, he can’t hit a fastball to save his life. Cwik wrote about it last week.

9:53	Comment From Guest Could the Jays make a push for Rios? Maybe something centred around Nolin? Melky could pose a porblem then..

9:54	Paul Swydan: I don’t see outfield as Toronto’s problem, but I guess they could reverse engineer things and get Rios and move Bautista back to third.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think they need to shove, a slight tap may get him.

9:54	Paul Swydan: And then Lawrie over to second, if he ever decides that he wants to hit like a professional again.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Hi-yo!

9:54	Comment From The Cubs When will we play meaningful games (to us) in September & October again?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Could be 2014. I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. 2015 for sure.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: 2015, I think they may turn it on in FA once some home grown pieces are in place.

9:56	Comment From Jesse BJs lat 30 days 221/354/416 3HR/4SB – which is basically what the Braves were expecting when the got him, yet they still still him

9:56	Paul Swydan: they do still still him. it’s unconscionable, really.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Is he back in the lineup?

9:58	Paul Swydan: He was tonight. 1-for-3 with a runs cored.

9:58	Comment From Dr. Met Rumor mill reporting Gallardo and one of their relievers in play with the DBacks. Would Skaggs and Davidson do it?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Hello?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Bah!

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: as long as the Marlins throw in the HR extravaganza.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Chat ate my answer, which was that that would be a horrible deal for Arizona.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Oh my would that be a horrible deal for the Dbacks.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Hey there it is. Weird.

9:59	Comment From Bip Who gets Garza?