FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 8/27/13

5:55	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be coming at you live at 9 pm ET. Until then, read my take on Khris Davis, Jeff’s take on Matt Harvey, and pepper the queue with questions. See you soon!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: I am working on an article about what I call “leaners” (maybe there is already a name). It looks at players who have a majority of their HBP happen in X-2 counts. Are there any known “leaners” you know of?

9:01	Paul Swydan: DEREK. JETER.

9:02

Paul Swydan: Sorry, the hate still flows strongly within me, I suppose. Anyway, let’s get this started.

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Like we always do about this time.

9:02	Paul Swydan: But yeah, let Jeff know in the comments.

9:02	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Is Carlos Quentin too obvious?

9:02	Comment From zack Jon Jay

9:02	Comment From Eli I’ve seen Chase Utley do that quite a bit

9:02	Comment From Sgt. Pepper This chat better be good I stopped playing EUIV just to be here.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I don’t know what that is.

9:02	Paul Swydan: But I thank you nonetheless!

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks for the names, I will get the percentages here in a few minutes.

9:03	Comment From Danny "If an amphibian were an old Russian autocrat hed be a" Salazar With some older and more expensive people leaving, do you think either Nava or Carp are in the BoSox’s future plans, or will they just bring in replacement old/expensive people?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice name to begin with, maybe a bit long.

9:04

Paul Swydan: John Farrell told us at Saber Seminar that they definitely think Carp has a future with the team. I think his current role is one to which he is well suited. Nava I think also mainly stays in the same role. If Ellsbury leaves, Bradley will take his place. Gomes and Victorino are also around next year.

9:05	Comment From zack Is it fair to blame AROD for Matt Harvey’s injury?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see Boston picking up some pitchers in their last couple seasons of arbitration to give the other fanancial help.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Not only fair but also just.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: No need to soil Harvey with AROD droppings.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Fanancial – is that when the fans pay the player’s salary?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: could be, I read in an ESPN article.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Switching to DET-OAK. This Boston game is over.

9:06	Comment From zack Chances Harvey pulls a Freddy Krueger/Adam Wainright style, stronger than ever comeback?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: 20% chance if he get the surgery looking at past TJS pitchers.

9:07	Paul Swydan: No one knows more about this subject than Jeff. His word is law!

9:08	Comment From Ryan Who should be more concerned about their SS’s performance in the wake of signing long term deals: The Rangers or the Cubs?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Cubs

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Jeter, only 35% HBP with 2 strikes

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs for sure

9:08	Paul Swydan: That’s more than 1/3rd!

9:08	Comment From Ryan Would you rather see your team sign Shin Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: some are over 90%

9:09	Paul Swydan: Oh, well alright.

9:09	Paul Swydan: As for Choo v. Ellsbury, probably Choo, just because I expect him to sign a shorter deal than Ellsbury.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Ellsbury, I think he will be able to help defensively longer.

9:10	Comment From Rick What should the Reds do at SS and 3B long term?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure. They may have to make a trade or two or except some ~1-2 WAR talent. I don’t know exactly where their money situation is right now. Quentin at 36%

9:12

Paul Swydan: I’m not at all a fan of Cozart. The D isn’t good enough to make up for his atrocious bat. I’m OK with Frazier for 2-3 more years at third though.

As for what they should do to replace Cozart? No idea. They’re already crying poor about losing Choo, so I wouldn’t exactly expect a miracle. It’s a shame that some teams want to just pocket all of their cash, but that’s the way it goes.

9:12	Comment From Jaack The Dodgers are the bad guys of this years postseason, assuming the Yankees don’t get there, right?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I actually love this Dodgers squad. I assume that the Red Sox will take the bad guy mantle, because I doubt anyone wants to see them win. Maybe the Tigers for people who hate Jim Leyland – which really, should be all of you.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I guess so, but I won’t be rooting against them. Boston would be the bad guys IMO.

9:14	Paul Swydan: See? Told you.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Jim Leyland, really.

9:14	Comment From Jaack If you were Neal Huntington, would you have only offered the Mets prospects with avian related names, specifically to make the pun a Byrd in the hand is worth two in the bush?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Uh, yes?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I love how he makes the camera men go crazy from trying not to film him smoking. Great TV

9:15	Comment From Ryan Who do you like in a one game Reds-Pirates playoff game? And who should the starting pitchers be? (Bailey-Burnett? Latos-Liriano? Cole-Cueto? Too much alliteration?)

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I would hope for Liriano and Wainright

9:16	Paul Swydan: Even if all of your pitchers are available (and they probably won’t be) it still depends on who you would face in your next series. Personally, I would make it a bullpen game. #4-5 SP gets 3-4 innings, and then it’s all hands on deck.

9:16	Comment From Ben M Other than Mike Trout, who’s the best 25-or-under everyday player in the game, and can any 25-or-under players surpass Mike Trout in the next few years?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: First, no on surpasses Mike Trout. Is Stanton still under 25?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Reminder that you can filter our leaderboards by age: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,25&filter=&players=0

9:18	Paul Swydan: Stanton is still under 25.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I know, he is for 2 more seasons. I will go with him.

9:18	Comment From Eli How about Manny Machado?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I think the only one with a chance would still be Harper, but I don’t think anyone is better than Trout, age 25 or not.

9:19	Comment From zack Stanton is 23. Also Heyward has a higher WAR this year than either Harper or Stanton

9:19	Paul Swydan: I feel like we’re seeing Machado’s absolute best ball this year.

9:19	Comment From jesse Xander! Xander! Xander!

9:20	Paul Swydan: We’ll see. They have to PLAY him first. Ugh.

9:20	Comment From Mike Hey Jeff, what’s going on with your cousin. I mean the Nationals can’t be happy with his defense this year

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yeah Jeff, what’s up with that?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: He found the Congressmen’s mad’am service and has his mind else where. At least he wasn’t like my other cousin and add an extra n to his name.

9:21	Comment From Nick Who is the weirdest fangraphs writer? From the chats I’d bet it is Szymborski.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, Dan isn’t technically a FanGraphs writer. More like a friend of the family. I’d have to say it’s a three-way tie between Eno, Sullivan and Laurila. We have a lot of weirdos here.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Carson

9:22	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah. Whoops.

9:22	Paul Swydan: It’s totally Carson.

9:22	Comment From zack JEff, what is your level of injury concern regarding Verlander? Substantial velocity loss and reduced command. Is he pitching with a lingering injury that will be discovered after the season?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Another one for Jeff!

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: He may just be aging. I have to write a MASH tomorrow. I will look at him in depth then.

9:24	Comment From Cal Guy When do you think Taveras is up for good, and will he play CF or a corner OF spot?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Well he just had surgery (foot?) so he is out for the year. I guess whether or not he moves Jay to a corner (or the bench) depends on how he recovers from his injury.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I thought this season, the injury derailed it. I bet it will be in a corner spot until they know he can handle CF.

9:25	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV Paul, how does it feel to have made Khris Davis the 10th most searched for player on FG right now?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Pretty good, actually! That’s a tough nut to crack!

9:26	Comment From Jaack Lol.. I was bored and looking through all y’all’s archives, and apparently whoever wrote Paul’s introduction mispelled his name.

9:26	Paul Swydan: My introduction to what? To the site? Like in my first post?

9:26	Comment From Jaack Who is the most forgettable team in baseball?

9:26	Paul Swydan: That’s a great question. Let’s take some nominees and we’ll make it a poll.

9:26	Comment From Jaack When was the last time you thought about Steve Trachsel before I mentioned him?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Senators or Pilots.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Any time someone brings up 1998, because he served up #62 to Big Mac.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t remember, but I think someone defaced one of his baseball cards.

9:28	Comment From Not Jack Z What should Seattle do with Morales? Keep and offer QO, keep and not offer QO, or trade for small salary relief and scraps…

9:28	Paul Swydan: If they can re-sign him before the QO period for a smaller deal, then do that. If not, QO.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the first part Paul, but not the second part. ~13M for him would be a quite steep with the needs they have.

9:30	Paul Swydan: It would, but I feel like they should have plenty of cash on hand.

9:30	Comment From Matt Keep hearing that the Pirates are looking into Morneau, but do you think they are the ones to put a claim in on Kendrys Morales?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I don’t think they did either. I think Morneau has a bunch of friends in the media because he’s a nice guy, and someone is trying to help him out.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. I am little surprised Morales would make it out of the AL.

9:31	Comment From Eli Awkward! Cano gets hurt. Nunez comes in. Nunez gets hurt…

9:32	Paul Swydan: Honestly, I don’t see how anyone but Joe Girardi can win AL Manager of the Year. That offense has been an unmitigated disaster.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Not surprised at all, I just trade from Cano.

9:32	Comment From zack Better in a keeper league: Latos or Greinke?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Greinke. But I like Latos a lot.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Greinke, maybe, good question.

9:33	Comment From zack The white sox are really boring.

9:33	Comment From Lewie Padres

9:33	Comment From Kate Rockies, Brewers, Phillies? Nats.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I disagree on Phillies and Nats. Amaro and Rizzo make too many dumb headlines.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I added in Twins and other. Have at it!

9:34	Comment From Sgt. Pepper White Sox at least have the potential for some Hawk Harrelson ridiculousness every night.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: True

9:35	Comment From Jaack http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-curious-case-of-cameron-maybin/: Paul’s name is mispelled

9:35	Paul Swydan: That’s hilarious.

9:35	Comment From Mike what’s the joke with mentioning #6 organization around here? I’ve seen it recently and hae no clue what it means

9:36	Paul Swydan: We used to do organizational rankings in the preseason (now we do the positional power rankings instead, or at least we have been), and the team we ranked #6 was absolutely awful two years in a row…maybe three?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Dave C ranked Seattle the 6th best org and they fell apart and since then, the 6th place team have all been horrible.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yeah I think once it was Minnesota.

9:37	Comment From Humphrey Bogaerts Why aren’t more people excited about Quintana doing what he’s doing as a 24-year old? Does he have really limited upside even with his progress?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen/read about the excitement. Let me check it out.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think it’s mostly a function of them being a little forgettable, and them having a horrible season to boot. No one is paying attention to them. Quintana has had a very nice season. If he can sustain the uptick in his K rate, he’s at worst a #3 SP.

9:39	Comment From Jaack 6Org was Mariners, then Twins, and then the Phillies who kind of broke the streak. Then the series ended.

9:39	Paul Swydan: There you go.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Also, just in case you forgot: http://nesncom.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/koji-uehara-high-five.gif?w=400&h=225

9:40	Comment From UnderTheRadar I forgot the Padres were even an option

9:40	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Cano’s Xrays were negative. How crazy would it have been if JA Happ was responsible for breaking the bones of TWO Yankees with pitches. Imagine the media hysteria.

9:41	Paul Swydan: The fact that it wasn’t broken won’t stop the media from being hysterical.

9:41	Comment From bilbo why would you look only at 2 strike hbp and call tomfoolery on the batter, maybe the pitcher choked

9:43	Paul Swydan: While Jeff answers that, let’s get up this poll:

9:43	Comment From Kay Red or white wine?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Looking to see if the hitter was down in the count and figured they could get a cheap base. Marte has 22 of 24 HBP with 2 strikes and now is dealing with a messed up hand on the DL.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Red, dry, not sweet.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I prefer white better myself, but wine is never my first choice.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I have been indulging in barley wine.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I don’t know what that is.

9:44	Comment From UnderTheRadar More overrated: RBIs, U2 music or “wins”?

9:44	Paul Swydan: RBI

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Got to love beer with such a high alcohol content they legally have to call it wine instead of beer.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: All of the above.

9:45	Comment From Ben M Andrelton Simmons. Is he Omar Viquel or is he Adam Everett?

9:46	Paul Swydan: More Vizquel than Everett. I expect Simmons to stick around for a long while.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, he will be on a roster for 10 years or so at least as a backup MI.

9:47	Comment From Mike would you rather golf 18 holes with Hawk or have Xander go down with a career ending injury. For Jeff… replace Xander with ___

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Hawk in a hear beat, it would be a blast to spin him up.

9:47	Paul Swydan: I bet playing 18 with Hawk would actually be pretty entertaining. Although since you didn’t specify which Hawk, I’m going to pretend you meant Andre Dawson. So haha, joke’s on you!

9:48	Comment From Ben M Which pair of prospects looks worse longterm? Ackley/Montero or Hosmer/Moustakas?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Seattle’s. Just not sure there’s anything to Montero at this point…but Ackley’s resurgence is nice, at least.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Ackley/Montero. Montero is done IMO, useless. and Hosmer is showing signs. He currently leads the league in HR distance.

9:49	Comment From Guest Is profar a decent replacement for cano?

9:49	Paul Swydan: In real life or fantasy? In real life sure, but that’s not happening. In fantasy, right now, no he isn’t.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said.

9:50	Comment From Roger Which rotation do you have the most confidence in for the playoffs?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Detroit’s.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Detroits with LA right behind them.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Love me some Kershaw

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah, me too. Just not sold on Ryu, especially after the Sox got a look at him.

9:51	Comment From Crusty So if you’re Sandy Alderson, what do you do? Change your horizon to 2015?

9:52

Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t. I would be trying to compete next year. It’s a crappy division that they have been #3 in as recently as this week with a crappy team. If he invests the money he should be, there’s no reason they can’t compete. They need some things to go wrong in Atlanta, but stranger things have happened.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Wait until the end of the playoffs and check into Harvey then. Also, it doesn’t mean he can’t try in 2014.

9:53	Comment From Glendon Rusch Felix Pie has 2 RBIs so far tonight

9:53	Paul Swydan: YCPB

9:54	Paul Swydan: I would also add RE: Harvey that this plan of trying to avoid surgery is probably ill fated, and if I was Alderson I would be STRONGLY STRONGLY STRONGLY suggesting that he just get it over with.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, it is reported Mark Reynolds is now at 2B

9:54	Comment From ralph When’s the last time a player as young as Trout has been the best player in the game?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Hmmm…

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he can wait just fine, it is not like doing it now will make him available in 2014

9:55	Paul Swydan: But not doing it until next April may keep him out in 2015…

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Mantle (off the top of my head)

9:55	Paul Swydan: I guess A-Rod. Mantle, Ripken and Mays also come to mind.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I heard/read they will re-evaluate in 2 months

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Ripken?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Arod is a good one, Griffey maybe

9:56	Paul Swydan: 8.5 WAR for Ripken at 22, 9.8 at 23. I think that’s good…

9:56	Comment From UnderTheRadar Are you guys for a big HOF(Jim Rice) or small HOF?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Small, I want to see the greats if I go to the HOF, not good players

9:57	Paul Swydan: If I have to pick between the two, small. But I still like Bill Simmons’ tiers idea. Bottom line, it’s a museum. Let’s have a bunch of tiers, and keep the Rice’s out of the one’s that would be considered the “old” hall.

9:58	Comment From Roger Surprised that Kubel got DFAed? Does AZ figure in the NL playoff race?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I tweeted earlier that I was not. He only started three times in August, and it was pretty clear that both Eaton and Pollock had passed him on the depth chart.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Add in Ross (next yr), Parra and Prado – because Kirk Gibson just can’t help himself from playing Prado where his bat holds no value – and it was pretty clear that Kubel was expendable.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: They are still in the hunt, but definitely on the outside looking in.