FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/5/14

by Paul Swydan

August 5, 2014

6:12	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I’ll be here at 9 pm ET to answer all of your base-and-or-ball questions. Jeff may be as well, I’m not sure, I forgot to ask him if he was available tonight. But either way, I’ll never leave you, faithful chatter! See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi peoples

9:02	Paul Swydan: Let’s do this.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I never saw Jeff online, so I’m guessing he’s not going to be around tonight.

9:02	Comment From JV How awesome is Jordan Zimmermann? He seems like another Wainwright to me. He is better than Sonny Gray, right?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hmmmm…

9:03	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:04	Paul Swydan: He is indeed. Neither get a ton of Ks, so if Gray starts to get more he could blow past Zimmermann, but right now that’s not happening.

9:04

Comment From Riblet
Hi Paul! I’m in a 16 team redrafter. We use QS, SV+HD, and OPS instead of W, SV, and AVG. I’m 1.5 games out of a playoff spot with 4 weeks left and need to improve my offense. Is Corey Dickerson enough of an upgrade over Brandon Belt that I should trade away Belt/A Wood for Dickerson/K Giles. My remaining SPs are Cueto, Wheeler, Bauer, Gausman, Tomlin with some serviceable options like Shoemaker and Smyly available as free agents

9:04	Paul Swydan: As much as I love Dickerson, no, I don’t think so. Assuming that is, that Belt hits like Belt.

9:05	Paul Swydan: There’s also this: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:05	Paul Swydan: Do ctrl-F for Dickerson, and you can see that they’ve started jacking with his PT a little.

9:05	Comment From Pale Hose Please tell those of us not going how awful SABR seminar and the Boston meetup are going to be.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I wish I could, Pale Hose. I wish I could. It’s gonna be great!

9:06	Comment From John Hi, I keep on reading here about the better hitters often having a quick bat speed. What is the best stat which shows this? Thanks.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I don’t think we have readily available stats for bat speed. I know Trackman tracks this, and there are ways you can isolate it with the stats we have at hand, but I don’t think it’s on our leaderboards or anything like that.

9:07	Comment From Jeremy What do you think of the Jays young duo, Stroman and Sanchez?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Love Stroman. Skeptical of Sanchez.

9:07	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Since May 12th Brett Gardner is SLG .516 (32 HR pace) and since June 15th he is SLG .603 (42 HR pace, 90 XBH). How much are you buying into the new found power stroke?

9:08	Paul Swydan: A little. It’s probably just a great season more than a new level of excellence for Gardner, but he already was a good player.

9:08	Comment From Jimbo Are the jays fans right to be mad at the FO for not making ANY moves (sorry Valencia) before the deadline??

9:09	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think so. But the division is so soft that I don’t blame them for sticking to their guns. I was definitely surprised the players complained publicly. Usually it’s “we don’t need nobody but the 25 guys in this clubhouse.”

9:09	Comment From Hi Alex! Don`t read chats while your at work! Mike Trout Vs Kershaw tonight… Predictions???

9:09	Paul Swydan: Fun?

9:09	Comment From Alex should not be reading chats at work. Have we seen the best of Miguel Cabrera? I’m not saying he isn’t awesome, but Albert Pujols started a Steep decline at age 31.

9:09	Paul Swydan: No reason that Pujols has to be the comp for Cabrera. At all.

9:10	Comment From Bill Bellamys Uncle Let me tell you boys something up in here…my once famous nephew is within reach of a money spot in my league…Is it all right to flip Tulo/Span/Petricka for Cueto/Robertson/Rios? Bill needs them benjamins. What you think?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I’d want back someone better than Rios.

9:10

Comment From bob
Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Alcantara Rizzo Castro Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez BaezBaez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Alcantara Rizzo Castro Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez BaezBaez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Alcantara Rizzo Castro Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez Baez

9:10	Paul Swydan: Indeed!

9:10	Paul Swydan: BTW, people voting other, what are you voting for?

9:11	Comment From Ruben Taking a quick glance at Ortiz’ peripherals, is it possible that his low BABIP (and low BA) is caused largely by defensive shifts? He seems to be amazing otherwise.

9:12	Paul Swydan: There’s definitely an element of shifty business in there. David, and the other heavily shifted hitters, simply need to find a way to adapt or live with their numbers getting pinched.

9:12	Comment From Jimbo What kind of return could the Yankees get this offseason for J.R Murphy?

9:13	Paul Swydan: He repeated Triple-A and put up a 76 wRC+. So I’m going to say … nothing?

9:13	Comment From Ibanez What kind of free agent deal does James Shields get? (assume he stays healthy and pitches to his projections)

9:13	Paul Swydan: Something like 4 years, $90 million? I don’t know, Shields seems to have the highest beta right now. I’m not sure I would even want to fork over the comp pick for him right now.

9:14	Comment From Ibanez What kind of free agent deal does Max Scherzer get?

9:14	Paul Swydan: More than the $160 million the Tigers offered him.

9:14	Comment From Rated Rookie The Guardians of the Galaxy soundtrack can take its place among favorite soundtracks: Pulp Fiction, Garden State, Lost in Translation.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Well, I know one of those. Sort of.

9:15

Comment From Faithful Chatter
Don’t you just hate it when you start your fantasy ace vs your favorite team… You want your team to win, yet your rooting for a good outing from your ace, yet you want your favorite players to boost their numbers, yet you want Ks.. its an inner battle. (I’m watching Price vs my yanks)

9:15	Paul Swydan: I do, but you have to do it anyway.

9:15	Comment From A Getting a little late in the season and saves are really close in our roto league. My offense is pretty solid. Is my Hanley for two closers too much at this point? Rollins would replace Hanley.

9:16	Paul Swydan: I guess it depends on which closers. They’d need to be closers that aren’t in danger of losing their jobs.

9:16	Comment From Faithful Chatter Is Gardner still one of the most under rated players in the game? He has been worth 4+ WAR in his last 4 seasons (not counting the 16 game 2012), including 7.4 in 2010 and he is at 4.4 this season.

9:16	Paul Swydan: The simple fact is that most people still don’t put a ton of stock in the defensive numbers, which is why Gardner ends up perpetually underrated. That’s their loss, not the Yankees’, clearly.

9:17

Comment From Guest
WTF was the point of DFAing Jacob Turner? He’s 23, was the 9th pick in the draft, still has an option year left I think, is barely making anything, and hasn’t been execrable or suffered a huge velocity drop. How do you ever punt a guy like that while he’s still dirt cheap and might randomly turn into a back-end guy or a useful pen arm.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I believe I read that he was out of options. If so, I can sort of see the logic in DFA’ing him. But if he had an option left, then it’s definitely odd.

9:17	Comment From brad Betts on bench again tonight? Why?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Because Farrell is just doing whatever he can to piss off every single layer of the Red Sox fan base this season?

9:18	Comment From brad becky hammon in a landslide; its historic

9:18	Paul Swydan: Someone tweeted it was the second time a woman has been made an assistant coach, but I didn’t follow up to see if that was true or not.

9:18	Comment From Matt Which prospect broke your heart the most? The guy you always believed in and flopped. For example mine is Kila Ka’aihue

9:18	Paul Swydan: Franklin Morales, without question.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Although I really thought Wilton Veras was going to be good, too.

9:19	Comment From Mark Felt Do you know Tom Tango’s real identity?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Maybe I do, maybe I don’t.

9:19	Comment From Shauntell Do you think Syndergaard will be called up? I have the no.1 waiver claim in a points keeper league where pitchers score a lot more points and Baez seems kind of risky, striking out at the rate he does (Ks=-0.5).

9:19	Paul Swydan: I certainly wouldn’t expect him up before September.

9:19	Comment From Mike K I bought a Saber Seminar ticket earlier today. Christmas in August.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Thanks Mike K! Hope you can join us the night before at Mead Hall as well!

9:20	Comment From brad Kinda true. There was a woman asst under John Lucas but she really had no role other than observing.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Under John Lucas where? Hasn’t he coached multiple NBA teams?

9:20	Comment From bob Sanchez is getting extended time tonight. Having issues throwing strikes.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Shocking. #notshocking

9:20	Comment From Guest Is Baez worth picking up in a shallow mixed for his series in Denver?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Series in Denver are always worth riding.

9:21	Comment From Guest number 3.14159 Alcantara is a decent bet as a midfielder, but how does he rank as an outfielder?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think that’s a moot point from a fantasy perspective, as he should retain his middle infield eligibility next season.

9:22	Paul Swydan: But, playing along, he would certainly be more valuable in a LF, CF, RF league than he would a straight OF league. In a straight OF league, he would be good, but probably not as good given the fact that he probably won’t pop a ton of homers.

9:22	Comment From brad it was when lucas was in clv around 2001

9:22	Paul Swydan: Thanks brad. #themoreyouknow

9:22

Comment From Lenard
Going for it this year and traded for Trout, Rutledge, and next years late round picks. Gave up next years 1st, 2nd, 4th round picks, Heyward and Alcantara. Trout can be kept forever for a moderate cost, while Heyward and Alcantara can be kept for cheap. Did I pay too high a cost or was that alright?

9:23	Paul Swydan: It seems like you paid a high cost, but not prohibitively so. I think Trout for Heyward and Alcantara is a slam dunk for you, so it’s just a matter of the picks. I think, given that you can keep Trout indefinitely, it evens out for you, since the picks are just a one-time thing.

9:24	Comment From Exar Kun Jordan Zimmermann: 2016 Red Sox starting pitcher. The control guys are underrated when they hit 95mph and have perfect mechanics(professional, not my opinion). Maybe the emergence of A.J. Cole and a fast moving Giolito can make it mid-2015

9:25	Paul Swydan: Well, the trouble with those guys is that they don’t throw 95 forever. But, I wouldn’t bank on Zimmermann signing with the Sox any time soon. Keep in mind that if the Nats lose Strasburg in free agency, there will be much more pressure to sign Zimmermann.

9:25	Comment From JV Kolten Wong or Arismendy Alcantara moving forward in a 5×5 OBP league?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Alcantara.

9:26	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:26	Paul Swydan: As you can see, Alcantara has been much better thus far, offensively.

9:26	Comment From Thurman Merman What World Series match up would you like to see the most? Orioles/Braves here. Though Nats would be cool too.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Oh man, Orioles/Braves would bore the pants off me. I would most like to see A’s/Dodgers.

9:26	Comment From bob Brett Anderson is leaving the mound 33 pitches in. I, for one, am shocked at this unforseen development

9:27	Paul Swydan: Yikes. I sort of feel bad for the guy, but sort of feel like he should know better at this point.

9:27	Comment From A The closers in my previous Hanley question would be Melancon and Perkins, Melancon and McGee, or Britton and Janssen, depending on which trade is accepted.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Not sure I like Melancon. I could see him losing his job to Frieri. Britton and Janssen is solid, but not excellent. If you can really swing the saves category a lot with the deal, do it, but that’s not a slam dunk.

9:28	Comment From Gila Monster A good rule of thumb for bat speed is look at their results/ video on pitches in the upper 90s. It isn’t everything however. Rickie Weeks had generational level bat speed… and he is Rickie Weeks.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Exactly. There are also lots of guys that have good bat speed on fastballs, but have slow bats on breaking balls. IE, by the time they recognize the pitch, they’re too late to make contact. Bat speed doesn’t necessarily mean being able to catch up to 96.

9:29	Comment From Ben C Dave predicts Puig vs Kershaw for MVP. How is this even possible, especially considering all the crotchety baseball columnists who vote?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Well, if the Dodgers run away with this thing in the manner in which I expect them to, they might not have a choice.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Puig did get a little bit of MVP love last year. http://www.baseball-referen…

9:30	Comment From Guest number 3.14159 How much WAR would a guy like Hahn get over a full season?

9:31	Paul Swydan: He’s probably in the 3.5-4 WAR range if he does this over a full season, but it’s probably better to temper that down to more like 2.5-3.

9:31	Comment From Rated Rookie Do you watch enough Red Sox games to give a eye-test (qualitative rather than quantitative) report on Xander Bogaerts’s year-to-date performance?

9:33

Paul Swydan: I like to think that I do. I think that his confidence was obliterated by the Drew fiasco. Let’s call it what it was – a fiasco. Farrell wanted his guy, and he shoehorned that solution as soon as he could. Bogaerts seems to be coming out of it, but he’s still swinging early in the count at bad pitches more than he was last year or in the early part of this year.

9:33	Comment From Max fisher players PAUL! So since teams have access to advanced metrics that we as the public cant see, are they allowed to use them in arbitration cases?

9:33	Paul Swydan: The rule on arbitration cases as of a couple years ago is that teams can use any stat that is listed in the Bill James Handbook. So, no, not for arbitration cases.

9:34	Paul Swydan: But, they can use them to frame negotiations with the player before the filing date, obviously.

9:34	Comment From Ben C Does Harper go to Free Agency?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’d be surprised if the Nats were able to sign him to a long-term deal that covers any of his free-agent seasons.

9:35	Comment From JV Who would you rather own in a fantasy league moving forward next two seasons–same prices–Jordan Zimmermann or Sonny Gray?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think you’d have to say Zimmermann just on the league difference.

9:35	Comment From Nastradamus Better offense… 2017 Cubs or 1995 Indians?

9:37	Paul Swydan: The 1995 Indians don’t even rate that highly: http://www.fangraphs.com/le… And I’ll still say the 1995 Indians. Not a lot of 2010-current teams on that list. It’s a new day.

9:37	Comment From Mike Scioscias tragic illness More likely outcome from the new biogenesis rumors: Guys we actually are going to miss, or guys we joke about “they should get their money back”?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I wasn’t aware of new rumors other than Bosch turning himself in, sorry.

9:38	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Bigger impact ROS, Martin Prado or Chase Headley (not fantasy impact)?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Probably Prado, just because they can move him around and rest older guys. Girardi loves moving pieces in his lineup.

9:39	Comment From Mookie Was offered Freeman, Latos & Kennedy for Adam Jones & Strasburg. Lost Goldy so 1B help needed. Fair? Which side you like?

9:40	Paul Swydan: It’s a fair deal for sure. I’d prefer the Jones and Strasburg side because 1) K’s, and 2) 2 spots rather than 3, but if you need 1B help, this is more than a fair deal.

9:40	Comment From zurzles Obligatory Baez fantasy relevance question

9:41

Paul Swydan: Depends on your league. If they’re listing him as 2B and SS< then he's very relevant. If they're waiting until he qualifies at certain positions, then that puts a damper on things. Either way, I think that you don't promote a guy in early August unless you're convinced that he is going to come up swinging the bat well.

9:41	Comment From Rated Rookie If you had to guess, where do you think Carlos Correa begins and finishes the 2015 season?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Double-A and Triple-A.

9:41	Comment From Ibanez Too late to grab Lindstrom, but are there are any good late season speculation pickups of guys who might be closing by September?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Not a lot of gimmes. Ottavino/Brothers, Soria, Jim Henderson, Giles, Frieri, Quackenbush, Farquhar would all be solid maybes though.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I like Quackenbush best, I think. Can’t see why SD hangs onto Benoit this month.

9:43	Comment From Sanchez My Trout & Lester for his Freeman, Harper & MadBum. Re-draft league – whatcha think?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I don’t see the point. Harper hasn’t been very good. If you specifically need 1B help, still no, but I can then at least see the logic in it.

9:44	Comment From JV Whats a good comp for Oscar Taveras?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’m not ready to put a comp on him yet. It’s100+ underwhelming PAs. Right now he’s not worth a comp. Let’s check back in a month or so.

9:46	Comment From A Don’t think your Hanley/Closers answer posted, but my CIL is also being weird…

9:46	Paul Swydan: Really? Huh, I said that Britton/Janssen was the best option, but that it wasn’t a slam dunk.

9:47	Comment From bob Reds are challenging a call in the top of the 9th with a 7 run lead. Do the unwritten rules of baseball require the Indians to bean Bryan Price?

9:48	Paul Swydan: That’s pretty bad. I was just bemoaning the whole replay system to my wife earlier tonight. It’s really worked out just as poorly as we envisioned it would. MLB doesn’t care though.

9:48	Comment From Rated Rookie It’s the point in the fantasy season where I scour Twitter and the MiLB First Pitch app to see if any of the prospects I’m gambling on will make next year better (i.e., doubling down on futility).

9:48	Paul Swydan: Always a good time!

9:48	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw 3 Most improved teams since the start of July and today are_____________ ________________ and _______________.

9:49	Paul Swydan: A’s, Cardinals and ………. Yankees.

9:49	Comment From JV Whats your opinion on Alexei Ramirez as a $4 keeper in OBP leagues? SS is so weak…

9:50	Paul Swydan: Decent. Obviously his OBP is not great, but it ranks ninth among qualified shortstops. So, for the price, you could do a lot worse.

9:52	Comment From Stephen With Jose Abreu playing so well coming out of Cuba, you it will significantly help us evaluate future players from there? Or do you think he’s a diamond in the rough?

9:53

Paul Swydan: I would say that Chapman helped Puig, who helped Abreu, and that Abreu will help the next potentially awesome player, but there are plenty of players that come out of Cuba and don’t pop, or don’t even make it. Like the pitcher that the Phillies signed. I can’t even remember his name at this point.

9:53

Paul Swydan: Alright guys, the questions have dried up a little early tonight. That’s on me, I was roughly a half hour late in posting the chat tonight. But I’m going to take the opportunity to jump out a little early and get some more sleep tonight.

Thanks, as always, for hanging out. Same time next week!

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG