FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 8/6/13

6:49	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Join at least me tonight at 9 pm ET, and we’ll talk baseball. If you’re going to ask me about A-Rod, it better be a creative or funny question. Otherwise, get in any questions you have, and we’ll fire it up soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Let’s fire this up! Just me for now.

9:01	Comment From SonnyCheeba What ever happened to the ADR defensive ratings?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Not sure. Posting this here for the Dark Overlord. I liked those as well.

9:01

Comment From Bob Melvin
Why does Cespedes not learn that all he is going to see is sliders away until he doesn’t swing at it?

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9:02	Paul Swydan: Also not sure. Resisting the urge to make a Pablo Cerrano joke.

9:02	Comment From larry What do you think of the Royals bringing up Danny Duffy? Would you pick him up in a deep fantasy league for ROS?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think it is just a spot start at the most.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Davis is on leave and so will be Maxwell.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I would not until he showed some success. He hasn’t been anything special in Triple-A this year statistically.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Hey, there’s Jeff!

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, good evening.

9:03	Comment From zack How surprised that John Lackey has been good this year?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Incredibly surprised.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Very

9:03	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her What do you think of Lucroy? Is this his true talent? He’s got career numbers in K rate and ISO but they aren’t completely out of whack and his BABIP is low.

9:05	Paul Swydan: This is the second straight year where he has been more than 25 percent better than league average offensively. He’s also a very good pitch framer, per the new numbers posted by Matthew Carruth at Statcorner. Link coming.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, not sure if believe the power numbers.

9:05	Paul Swydan: http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

9:06	Paul Swydan: Pretty good resource there. Jeff Sullivan says don’t trust #’s under 1,000 pitches, but obviously Lucroy is way above that bar.

9:06	Comment From zack IS it wrong of me to root for AROD to go on a tear for the last two months just to piss everyone off?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Well, since Dave Cameron said the same thing in his podcast with Cistulli yesterday, it isn’t. So, root away!

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not one bit. MLB deserves this mess they got themselves into.

9:08	Comment From Dave Cameron Ackley over Strasburg. Agree?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Salt, meet wound.

9:08	Comment From Last place but hoping Can only keep one in a pts. league: Cespedes or Carlos Gomez?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I say Gomez.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Gomez, but I like both.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Better home park, better league.

9:08	Comment From zack Who would you rather for the next 3 years: Jason Heyward or Justin Upton? Both have combined long stretches of awesomeness with other long stretches of extreme suckitude.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Upton

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Upton.

9:09	Comment From Jeff What’s your take on two post-hype Mets prospects: Mejia and Flores?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’m still cautiously optimistic on both, though Mejia staying healthy may always be an issue.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I streamed Mejia today, FWIW.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, I would like to see more truthfully.

9:10	Comment From fo.star Will Cody Asche start hitting soon?

9:10	Paul Swydan: He’s got a grand total of 20 major league PAs. Settle down over there.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I was just checking that value, don’t worry one bit.

9:11	Comment From 3 Men and a Lil Penny Cistulli mourns the Kluber injury by ceremonially spraining each of his fingers intentionally (thumbs included).

9:11	Paul Swydan: Oh, that’s a good one. I should have thought of that.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice.

9:11	Comment From Michael Keeper league forever.. Verlander, Grienke or Fernandez?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Need more info. Indefinite keeper? Two years, three years?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Next three years – Verlander Indefinite – Fernandez

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Fernandez, but I see issues with each one.

9:12	Comment From Michael Do you see any reason BJ Upton can be a decent option in 2014?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Jeff has been all over BJ’s struggles, so I’ll leave this to him.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t count on it. I don’t like players with any kind of back issues.

9:13	Comment From Derek Joey Bats or Anthony Rizzo in a keeper?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Rizzo

9:13	Paul Swydan: Bautista for me. I don’t see Rizzo as being a special talent.

9:14	Comment From SonnyCheeba Who should I drop for streaming purposes between Edwin Jackson, Scott Kazmir, and Wade Miley? (limited SP slots)

9:14	Paul Swydan: Kazmir

9:14	Paul Swydan: Maybe Ejax

9:15	Comment From Chipper Was offered Justin Heyward for Minor, & need outfield help. Is that fair value, should Minor bring a greater return?

9:15	Paul Swydan: The latter. You need more for Minor.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on Kazmir, may need to look at future schedule. Some games against the Twins and White Sox could improve Kazmir’s case for staying.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with Paul and I seems to be getting the delay answer tonight.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Damn you, CiL!!!!

9:16	Comment From DustyToothPick I have to drop or trade one of Homer Bailey, CJ Wilson, Mike Minor. Who has the most trade value? How would you rank them ROS?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Minor, Bailey, Wilson. I like Minor the best for sure. I would try to trade Wilson, people will be more familiar with him.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Minor or Bailey are even IMO. They are way ahead of Wilson.

9:17	Comment From Bosox Fan in Tampa Wearing a custom made T-Shirt that declares Tropicana Field the home of the Boston Red Sox to the series in September. Yay or nay?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Yay, obviously.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Who will see it?

9:17	Comment From Guest With Jenrry Mejia impressing yet again tonight what is the revised projection for his floor/ceiling after being almost forgotten as a prospect?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Well, he got all flustered by a 17-minute umpire delay. That wasn’t fun. Only retired one of five hitters afterwards. But, he can be very good. The question is his durability.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I still want to see him make it 10 games.

9:19	Comment From Ryan Have you guys ever read Joe Peta’s “Trading Bases”? It’s a great take on the intersection of sabermetrics, wall street and baseball.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, some good, a little bad.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Wendy Thurm mentioned it to us all in spring training. I haven’t had a chance yet, unfortunately.

9:20	Comment From guest Carson Cistulli – greater podcaster or comedian?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Comedian.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Comedian. He is pretty quick.

9:21	Comment From Ernesto Frieri Am I finished as the Angels’ closer? If so, who takes my place?

9:21	Paul Swydan: That magical person known as anyone.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Does it really matter?

9:22	Comment From Guest ROS: Brad Miller or Starlin Castro?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Miller. Tentatively.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Miller because Castro is just a mess.

9:22	Comment From Ryan Does the Royals’ recent success have their fans feeling better about the Wil Myers deal? They’re only 4 games out of the wild card. . . .

9:23	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really, especially with James Shields throwing a dud out there tonight.

9:24	Comment From Mike Olt What’s wrong with me?

9:24	Paul Swydan: The Rangers just aren’t that into you.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: and the K’s are getting up there for a person with 20 HR potential.

9:25	Comment From zack Has Strasburg actually underrated at this point?

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I just think people are justifiably worried about future injury.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Actually become underrated is what I think you mean. I would say no. He’s 37th in pitcher WAR this year. He’s 22nd in FIP. I think that sounds about right. He’s just outside the top tier right now, and may stay there because of the injury concern.

9:27	Paul Swydan: But hey, at least the Nationals didn’t risk his career by letting him pitch last postseason. KUDOS TO THEM!!!

9:27	Comment From Ross What are the Sox doing with their rotation tonight? Someone’s got to be hurt or something, right?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:28	Paul Swydan: The Red Sox? I don’t know, I didn’t pay too much attention to it to be honest. Obviously it didn’t work out all that well.

9:28	Comment From BX The A’s and their lack of run scoring are scaring me. Talk me out of panicking please?

9:29	Paul Swydan: They need someone to step up with Donaldson regressing. Cespedes has sort of stepped up, but he’s not doing enough.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Take what you can get, it could be worse.

9:30	Comment From Theo in Wrigleyville Is Junior Lake for real, or is he a “sell high” candidate for the Cubs this offseason

9:30	Paul Swydan: Sell high.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Sell, Sell, Sell

9:30	Paul Swydan: Although, you don’t need to sell per se. Just don’t count on him to be a starter.

9:30	Comment From jesse Watching MLB network, the scroll on the bottom of the screen has three headers :A-ROD”, “PEDs”, & “NEWS”. thoughts?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Those are the two big stories of the week. Can’t say that I blame them.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, and they are over Jeter going to DL.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Speaking of Jeter…

9:32

Comment From Glen
Why is it that in all of the Biogenisis coverage no one asks why steroids are illegal in baseball in the first place? I’m not arguing players should be able to self-prescribe or take drugs that are illegal in the US. I just think it would make sense for team doctors to be allowed to prescribe steroids to players to help them return from injury and to stay healthy. If there was a steroid out there that would have allowed Jeter to get healthy earlier in the season and stay healthy, is the game really better off with Jeter out?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, I think they should either be allowed are not. There really shouldn’t be some kind of middle ground.

9:34

Paul Swydan: I can’t say that I disagree with this at all, and doctors giving players painkillers or cortisone shots is a pretty fine line as is. Brett Favre famously got hooked on the painkillers that he took to keep himself on the field. Most people still love him. So, it’s more a cultural problem of how we define cheating. And since the game is run by old, white people they have drawn lines in the sand instead of trying to open up thoughtful dialogue such as this. That is the real shame in all of this.

9:34	Comment From Ross Should Dodgers fans or Braves fans be feeling more optimistic about their team right now?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Hey, I wrote about the Dodgers today, you should read it! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/examining-the-dodgers-road-win-streak/

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, Dodgers. Both have their great points and warts.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Also, I’m more comfortable with LA right now. Braves are sort of all over the place.

9:36	Comment From Tom Ricketts checkbook What’s a fair extension for Samardzija given his two years of remaining team control? 5/$60?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I would play it year by year with him. I don’t like taking a pitcher into their 30’s

9:37	Paul Swydan: Without checking comps and stuff, this seems to be fairly reasonable, but I’m not sure. Also, one of his agents is apparently a family relation, probably his dad. I wonder how that will play with negotiations. He certainly didn’t take any sort of discount after the draft.

9:37	Comment From HowlingWolf Will the Indians find a way to get Salazar in the rotation permanently next year? Would you keep him in a really deep league over Eovaldi?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yes and yes.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and probably.

9:38	Comment From Vilnius from Vilno Offered Hosmer and Buxton for Cano in pts. keeper league. 16 team so gaping hole at 2B, but need a good 1B and am in rebuilding mode. Go for it?

9:39	Paul Swydan: If you’re rebuilding, it’s not an awful deal. Cano is still the gold standard, but he has had a down year.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I take the Cano side of the deal.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I would try to squeeze a third player out of the deal if I was you.

9:40	Comment From Ross Are the Dodgers the most dangerous team to meet in a short post season series given they have Kershaw and Greinke to go 1-2?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I mean, yes and no. Cards can go Waino and Miller. Tigers can go Verlander, Scherzer, Anibal. Red Sox can go … ha, just kidding. Dodgers are up there for sure.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: The Tigers would be the top with me with Verlander and Scherzer

9:41

Comment From RationalSportsFan
Sorry to be so serious in an After Dark chat, but…why do people rip on defensive stats for counter-intuitive results, yet gladly accept BA, even though it shows Chris Johnson to be an exemplary player? Don’t all offensive stats, in a limited sample, have the same issues that are routinely levied against defensive stats?

9:42

Paul Swydan: I think where people criticize the defensive metrics is when you get into situations where you say “this guy has been -5 defensively thus far, so he clearly sucks at D.” It’s entirely reasonable that the player is good defensively, but has had a rough couple of weeks, but that’s not how the info is often presented. And that leads to backlash.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: All stats need to be put into context.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Also, defensive stats are newer.

9:43	Comment From Ross Have you guys checked out the fangraphs custom leaderboard for last winter’s free agent’s recently? Looks like the Red Sox spent their money well, so far.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I haven’t. But yes, aside from Dempster, the results have been good so far.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: No I have not.

9:44	Comment From Guest As a Nats fan I think a half of our pitching staff is going to blow out their arms/shoulders soon

9:44	Paul Swydan: You’re probably more right than you are wrong.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: At least a couple have their first TJS out of the way,

9:45	Comment From Jah Let’s talk about Ivan Nova

9:45	Paul Swydan: You can’t make us!

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: No.

9:45	Comment From Jah More plate appearances rest of career, Olt or A-Rod?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Ooohhh. I’ll say A-Rod.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Olt, but they are going to be ugly

9:46	Comment From Drop the chalupa Favorite Mexican dish?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Taquitos. http://gosimpsonic.tumblr.com/post/56090920245/102021

9:47	Paul Swydan: I want some. Gimme gimme gimme.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: “Some kind of fish” Vera Cruz, Sonoron Hot Dog, Green Corn Tamales, and ….

9:47	Comment From Dalai Blah-Blah-ma ROS on Mesoraco?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Does it even matter?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Actually, I guess it does.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: What Zips(ROS) says.

9:48	Paul Swydan: He’s played 17 of the last 22 games. Wait a second, is Hanigan on the DL again?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I like Mesoraco, obviously. Think projections may underrate him because of his sparing playing time. To wit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-burying-of-devin-mesoraco/

9:49	Comment From PUBLISH MY COMMENT YAH YAH YAHHHH PUBLISH MY COMMENT

9:49	Paul Swydan: You can’t make us! Oh wait.

9:50	Comment From RationalSportsFan Biogenesis vs Sega Genesis vs Phil Collins’ Genesis vs the religious book, Genesis…who wins a four corners steel-cage match?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Sega Genesis. SEEEEEEEGGGGAAAAAAAAAAAAA

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: SAY IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

9:51	Comment From Embiggens is a perfectly cromulent word Simpsons question: would you prefer more new episodes; or cancellation, followed by syndication so you can see all the old episodes on re-runs on a bunch of different channels.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Well, we’re definitely getting syndication this fall. But no, even speaking as someone who owns the first 12 seasons and the movie on DVD, I think it’s time for the show to end.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t really care, I don’t have time to watch re-runs on TV. I barely keep up on current series

9:52	Paul Swydan: http://www.deadline.com/2013/07/the-simpsons-eyes-financial-windfall-with-cable-syndication-sale/

9:53	Comment From T-Diddly What about Peter Gabriel-era Genesis?

9:53	Comment From Philadelphia Collins Its me Philadelphia Collins!

9:53	Comment From jesse You say Sega but I can feel it in the air tonight!

9:53	Paul Swydan: Oh lord.

9:53	Comment From Sgt. Pepper It can’t be that long before Simpsons are on Netlix anyway #60seasonsandamovie

9:53	Paul Swydan: Dare to dream.

9:54	Comment From zack Is Eric Hosmer finally alive?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I believe he is, by gum. Jeff, your thoughts?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Looks that way. I still don’t know if he is good enough to be an above average MLB 1B. Think Casey Kotchman.

9:55	Comment From Sgt. Pepper How insane is it that Yan Gomes leads all AL Rookies in WAR

9:55	Paul Swydan: Is he still even a real rookie? Yeah, it’s been an underwhelming crop.

9:56	Paul Swydan: A real Angel Berroa year, if you know what I mean. Right Jeff?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: AL ROY is weird race.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t believe David Lough will possibly get votes.

9:56	Comment From jesse can we give Miller the NL ROY and Fernandez the AL ROY?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Fine with me and Puig can get the MLB ROY.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Maybe we could have Fernandez, Puig and Miller have a steel cage match for the two slots.

9:57	Comment From Intervention Paul, stop deferring to Jeff. It’s unmanly.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Hey, there’s been lots of Royals questions tonight. Jeff was deferring to me plenty last week when there was a ton of Red Sox questions.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea…. I guess.

9:58	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Mike Trout will have a higher WAR in his rookie season than the next __ AL ROY’s combined.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: 3, each should be around 3.5 WAR.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Two. This year plus the 27 WAR Xander Bogaerts puts up next year.