FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/8/17

by Paul Swydan

August 8, 2017

11:09

Paul Swydan:

What is Tuesday’s best matchup?

BOS (Sale) vs. TB (Pruitt) (14.5% | 20 votes)

COL (Marquez) vs. CLE (Kluber) (40.8% | 56 votes)

MIL (Garza) vs. MIN (Mejia) (0% | 0 votes)

STL (Wacha) vs. KC (Vargas) (4.3% | 6 votes)

LAD (Maeda) vs. ARI (Godley) (37.9% | 52 votes)

BAL (Hellickson) vs. LAA (Bridwell) (2.1% | 3 votes)

Other (0% | 0 votes)

Total Votes: 137

11:13

Paul Swydan:

How many HR would Barry Bonds have hit if he had played one last season, in 2008?

0-5 (2.4% | 4 votes)

6-10 (0.6% | 1 vote)

11-15 (3.0% | 5 votes)

16-20 (15.4% | 25 votes)

21-25 (21.6% | 35 votes)

26-30 (27.1% | 44 votes)

31-35 (14.8% | 24 votes)

36-40 (8.6% | 14 votes)

41+ (6.1% | 10 votes)

Total Votes: 162

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Paul Swydan: One sec, still getting set up.

9:04	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this thing.

9:04	Austin: Reynaldo Lopez had a great stretch from June-July, but his last three starts have been more pedestrian (15 IP, 8 ER, 9 BB). Cause for concern as he makes his White Sox MLB debut?

9:05

Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. Rick Hahn spoke to us at Saber Seminar on Saturday, and he told the person who asked to “buy a ticket for Friday,” regarding Lopez’s debut. That was, at the time, a week away. If he wasn’t worried dropping that hint/news, he’s not concerned with Lopez’s performance. And so I won’t be either.

9:05	Paul Swydan: He also made it sound like Lopez was ready a start or two ago, but he didn’t want to call him up at the time because he wanted to give Lopez a soft landing in his MLB debut in terms of opponent.

9:05	Cheese: How do you see the Dodgers handling their playoff rotation? Could they do regular starts with Kershaw and Darvish, then do planned 4ish inning split games with Wood/Ryu/Maeda/Hill? Or does one of their 7 legit starters get left off the playoff roster?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I haven’t mapped out the whole staff yet so I don’t want to say who gets left off, but I would assume the rotation is Kershaw-Darvish 1-2, and Wood-Hill in 3-4 in some order.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Can’t see Ryu or Maeda starting if everyone is healthy.

9:07	John: Every home run derby you see stats such as player X has 23 HRs, he would have 21 in this park etc. Is there a way to figure out how many HR barry bonds would have had if he played every game in coors or yankee stadium?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I am not sure how far back you can go, but you should be able to do that with the overlays at http://www.hittrackeronline.com/

9:08	Paul Swydan: Of course, that won’t be conclusive, but you can get an idea.

9:08	Paul Swydan: BTW, Jeff should be along in a little bit.

9:08	John Oleruds Helmet: If he had been healthy to begin the season, would the Sox have shopped Rodon? And if so what do you think his return would have been?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so.

9:09	Paul Swydan: He’s still just 24, so he can be a part of the next great White Sox team. Also, the 4.04 ERA was probably enough to scare away at least a couple of teams.

9:09	ChatzMcGee: Andrelton Simmons is the third most valuable player in the AL by fWAR (second most by bWAR), where does this rank on the, “Holy Crap, Didn’t See That Coming” Scale?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Pretty high, I’d say, but the potential was always there. All he had to do was learn how to hit. We just didn’t expect it because glove-first dudes don’t usually magically learn how to hit better.

9:10	John Oleruds Helmet: The Twins just promoted Stephen Gonsalves to AAA, with them basically admitting they aren’t playoff contenders wouldn’t it just be better to give him that development time in the bigs?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with giving him a month in Triple-A and then promoting him to the majors once the minor league season ends and major league rosters expand.

9:11	snid: re: Alex Wood With the recent stories relating to his drop in velocity, how much does missing a start actually help in regaining? I did see that he has regained some velocity with a mechanics change. thx

9:12	Paul Swydan: I don’t have any data that says skipping one start will help him regain velocity, but intuitively, you would think it could only help to rest a bit.

9:12	Danny Almonte: How about how many HR would Barry Bonds have hit in his prime with today’s ball?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Hah. I can’t count that high!

9:13	Smoky Joe Wood: So Sale is good again. What’s your view of the catcher theory?

9:13	Paul Swydan: When was Sale not good? Everyone has a bad start or two. If you mean what do I think about personal catchers? I think it’s a bunch of nonsense. But if the pitcher thinks he gets a psychological edge from it, and he’s the very best in the game — Sale, Kershaw, etc. — then I’ll allow it.

9:14	Paul Swydan: The problem is when it filters down to the rest of the pitching staff. Have to nip that in the bud. Catchers aren’t robots.

9:14	Zee: Acuna as the next Trout. Too pessimistic?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Um, yeah! How about Trout + Walter Johnson + Willie McCovey?

9:15	Bo: Swanson has been playing 2B in AAA… What on earth are they doing with him?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Sounds like they’re just trying to get everyone in their crowded Triple-A infield some playing time – http://atlantabraves.blog.ajc.com/2017/08/08/braves-evaluating-how-cam…

9:16	Smoky Joe Wood: Would you agree that Pomeranz is having a better year this year than Porcello did last year?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Hmmmm….

9:17	Paul Swydan: It’s close, but I think I’ll still give Porcello the nod for now. Pomeranz is certainly trending in the right direction though.

9:17	SON OF CARSON: WHEN IS CARSON BACK!!!! HIS BASEBALL CHILDREN ALSO NEED HIM!!!

9:18	Paul Swydan: My sources tell me that Carson will be back in late August.

9:18	Paul Swydan: My sources also tell me that his baby is adorable. 🙂

9:19	CubsNerd: What’s your take on Domingo Santana? Got a ton of hype during his hot streak, but seems to have cooled. Is he a solid starter or something more?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Something more! Love Domingo Santana.

9:20	Rusty Dusty: Hypothetical, say Blake Swihart was still considered a prospect. Where would you rank him in the Red Sox farm system?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Say, if he had never graduated to the majors, and was just a 25-year-old catcher with a 62 wRC+ in Triple-A? That’s not a top prospect.

9:21	Bruce Bocce: Do you think eno’s Tanaka as vampire idea is credible?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s UN-credible, but I can’t buy it as the sole reason he’s sucked at night.

9:22	Hannah Hochevar: For fantasy (but no saves) do you prefer Britton or Stroman?

9:22	Paul Swydan: If there’s no saves, I’d have to take Stroman, since he throws significantly more innings.

9:22	Curtis: What are a couple of names other than Verlander you think will be traded before August 31?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Jay Bruce and Jose Bautista

9:23	Paul Swydan: Not as certain on Bautista, might be wishcasting. Wouldn’t it be fun to see him end up on Colorado and see if he can regain his swing in time for the playoffs?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I think it’d be fun.

9:23	mirrors: Do you also believe in the conspiracy of the official mlb ball?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone, sorry for showing up late

9:24	Paul Swydan: That the ball has been juiced? Yeah, but like Travis pointed out today (and Dr. Alan Nathan did over the weekend), I don’t think it’s the sole reason for the uptick in homers.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: No conspiracy, I think they changed companies and then it changed.

9:24	A.: Which pitching line tonight was more surprising- German Marquez 6IP 0R (CLE) or Vance Worley 6IP 1R (WSH)?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Oh, Worley for sure. Marquez has been pretty good lately.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Worley. He is barely replacement level

9:25	Smoky Joe Wood: Can we talk about how great Don Baylor was? One of my favorite players as a kid.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Yes, yes we can. Don Baylor was everything to the Colorado Rockies. He was the team’s first manager, led them to their first playoffs, and was the hitting coach when they went to the postseason in 2009.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I never really followed his career. Sorry.

9:26	Paul Swydan: He always carried himself with class and grace, always set a good example, and was certainly nice to me the one time I had to interview him.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Furthermore, he helped integrate Austin, TX, schools, no easy feat. He will be sorely missed.

9:27	Tom: Bautista’s swing isn’t coming back. His bat speed is gone. He could play on the moon and it wouldn’t matter.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Wow Tom. Just wow. Way to be a buzzkill.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: For this instance, I would love to have multiple years of exit velocity to compare. We are 10 years away from answering these types of questions.

9:28	Jake Umphreys McGee: Allegedly, Bonds began juicing after the 1998 offseason. If, theoretically, he never took PEDs, what would his final numbers estimate to be and when would he retire? Through his age 34 season, he was averaging around 30-40 homeruns and 25-35 stolen bases along with a 6-9 WAR

9:29	Paul Swydan: I mean, I don’t need to calculate that out for you, you can do it one your own, you’re a smart person. Certainly, he still would have been an inner-circle Hall of Famer.

9:29	Paul Swydan: He also would have probably not been blackballed and have played for another season or two, which would have helped mitigate some of the difference.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: The stolen bases were likely done but otherwise, he continues to produce

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: HOF for sure

9:30	Bones: Fantasy keeper question: My $21 Rendon for $7 Moustakas. Worth trading Rendon for the $14 savings next year?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Not to me, but I’m usually the low man on Moustakas.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: No for now but Moose could really see a HR spike if he gets out of KC and to a small home park.

9:31	Korey Cluber: Tommy Pham attributes much his recent success both offensively and defensively to having his vision corrected. He probably isn’t going to continue to play as good as he has, and he’s 29, but how valuable will he be going forward?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I’d say he’s a solid 2-WAR player going forward. Maybe 2.5. That’s pretty good, considering he had a total of 1.6 WAR entering the season.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: 1 to 2 WAR player. I have limited expectations

9:32	Curtis: If the change of scenery myth was true, who would be a good match for Buxton?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Anyone

9:33	Paul Swydan: I would think he’d be the most effective in a park with a similarly big center field, like Oakland or Texas or something like that.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I also don’t think that “change of scenery” is a myth. It certainly doesn’t always hold up, but sometimes guys really do need a different situation to succeed.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Or consistent playing time.

9:34	Bruce Bocce: Is Trevor Cahill crapping out?

9:35	Paul Swydan: 4 of the 11 fly balls he has allowed in Kansas City have gone for home runs. Call me crazy, but I don’t think that trend will continue.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s just not good when both your BB/9 and HR/9 are at 4.15. He’s not striking anyone out. Crapping out seems appropriate.

9:37	Peter: So the assumption is the Cubs pull away for the nl central. And the Indians should be better than others in the Al central. Is it going to be a very ‘boring’ September, with a very stacked playoffs?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: The wild cards will keep it interesting, especially in the AL

9:38

Paul Swydan: I honestly don’t think the Cubs will pull away in the NL Central. There’s no reason that the Brewers should just collapse. And really, for as bad as they’ve been the Cardinals are only 3.5 out, and Pittsburgh 4.5 out. One hot streak could make it interesting. As for the AL Central….I could have seen Cleveland pulling away before Andrew Miller got hurt. Now…not as much. We’ll see.

9:38	CubsNerd: Of the teams that look like a good bet to make it to the play-in game (Rockies, Dbacks, Yankees, Royals, Mariners, Rays), who is the one you’d be the most worried to face?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Probably the Yankees, then the Rockies/Dbacks, Rays, Mariners.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: D-Backs. Best top end starters IMO

9:39	Paul Swydan: But in one game, they’re all capable of winning. I have the Mariners on the bottom here, but all it takes is Cano and Cruz going off and you’ve got 7 runs on the board or something.

9:40	Dat guy: What do you make of Bogaerts’ strategy of taking the first pitch then chasing the second to ensure he’s in an 0-2 hole every at bat?

9:40	Paul Swydan: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for him.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice

9:41	hscer: that’s a ton of votes for 31+ when he hit 5, 26, and 28 his last 3 seasons

9:41	Paul Swydan: To be fair, 26-30 is leading.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:42	Murdoc: Hey Paul, did you ever get to meet Don Baylor?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I honestly can’t remember. I feel like I must have, given that I was in the clubhouse a lot in 2009, but I can’t pull out a specific memory. And all my old Rockies Magazines are buried in my basement. 🙁

9:43	Paul Swydan: (Note that Bogaerts singled as soon as we published that comment about him.)

9:44	hscer: I self published an ebook about…football. would it be gauche to link it here? I even published it under my actual name lol (unbelievably, “hscer” isn’t my actual name)

9:44	Paul Swydan: Sure, link away!

9:45	Bryan: Why does Josh Donaldson return to Josh Donaldson vs the Yankees??

9:45	Paul Swydan: Auditioning for his next team? (ducks)

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: He has to hit against someone and everyone hates the Yankees?

9:46	Scruffy-Lookin’ Nerf Hurler: Felt I needed a big bat in my h2h pts dynasty. Traded CMart and Benintindi for Blackmon. Need some reassurance I didn’t just hurt myself…

9:46	Paul Swydan: No, I think that’s pretty good. Blackmon should still be good the next few years. Good consolidation trade.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Do what you need to this time of year to win.

9:47	Strong Island: Josh Donaldson is headed to the Long Island Ducks?

9:47	Paul Swydan: That’s cold.

9:47	mike: How much regression should we expect from Cody Bellinger next season?

9:48	Paul Swydan: He’s played most of this season, so I’d say to expect less than if he had like Benintendi/Lawrie playing time.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I kind of expect some this season. He has to have a couple of holes in that massive swing

9:48	A.: Do you think Judge or Stanton get to 50HRs, or is the injury and slump monster coming

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’ll still take the under for both.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they can. I like Stanton’s chances

9:49	Da Bum: What do you think has changed things for Bregman? BABIP isn’t the cause.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Just genuine improvement? It was about time. But I honestly haven’t delved in too deep. I know we are getting a Bregman piece this week though. Someone just called it this evening. So stay tuned!

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: He seems pretty consistent. I’m not sure the change

9:51	Brian Cashman: Eduardo Nunez or Mike Trout? Tough call, best hitter ever vs. best hitter ever. Who you taking?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Eduardo Trout.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Mike Nunez

9:52	Curtis: What do you think the percentage of “disappointed in player X” fans are fans of that team as opposed to “he’s killing me on my fantasy team”?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Oh, at least 40%. Not going to lie, guys who torpedo my fantasy seasons definitely color my views as well. I’m only human damnit!

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe not that high but some exist

9:53	Paul Swydan’s Wife: Honey, it’s time to come to bed, you’ve been baseball chatting since 9

9:53	Paul Swydan: Hah, my wife couldn’t care less. There’s a decent chance she’ll be asleep when we finish.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: LOL, more like come help get the kids asleep.

9:54	Paul Swydan: No no, they’re asleep. 🙂

9:54	marky mark: in a dynasty league – sell high on bellinger for madbum?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Nope, I’d hang onto Bellinger.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No ….. pretty sure no

9:55	Nick: No but seriously, what an addition to the Red Sox Nunez has been. Can’t believe the Sox got him for practically nothing. Not that he can keep up what he has been doing since he joined the team, but he doesn’t have to be anything but a good bench player for here on out.

9:55	Paul Swydan: He has not only been important to the team, but just as importantly, he’s been fun to watch. He is a guy who prioritizes contact, and if you can consistently make solid contact, Fenway Park is a great place to play.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Correct. Perfect fit for a team with decent regulars

9:56	A.: Another fun Marlins thought- Stanton and Yelich have the same BA in August (yeah it’s BA, but). Raise your hand if you thought that would happen in March…

9:57	Paul Swydan: Hand raised! I love Yelich, and he had an AWESOME WBC. No reason to think back in March he wouldn’t be good. The doubts with Yelich didn’t creep in until mid-May after his rocky start.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I am a little surprised Stanton has one so high

9:58	Da Bum: Re:Bregman … Look forward to his article. Just a quick glance shows no drastic changes to hard hit, fly ball or babip yet his K percentage is way down and iso way up. Kind of seems like one of statistically unexplanable improvements. Hoping something tangible is found.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Me too!

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:58	Young Baseball Fan: Chris Sale: 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K

9:58	Young Baseball Fan: Corey Kluber: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11K

9:59	Paul Swydan: Dueling aces! Too bad it wasn’t the same game.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Although Pruitt and Marquez were pretty good too.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: And Kluber is going to get the L. Wins are dumb

9:59	jon: is dustin pedroia a fair comp for mookie betts?