FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/15/15

by Paul Swydan

September 22, 2015

4:49	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! What do you know, it’s Tuesday again! That happened pretty fast, don’t ya think? Join Jeff and myself tonight at 9 pm ET for some hot baseball chat action. Until then, polls!

9:04	Paul Swydan: Hi guys, sorry, I was busy making fun of Zach Sanders on Twitter for confusing Ryan Adams and Bryan Adams.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Let’s chat!

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:04	Paul Swydan: Pretty good game going right now in Toronto, FYI.

9:04	Comment From Guesto I demand a “I have never seen Star Wars” category.

9:05	Paul Swydan: No. I demand that you leave the chatroom until you have seen at least one Star Wars!

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems reasonable

9:05	Comment From Guesto 24-and-under player: Luis Severino. 21 year old strike thrower, shows great poise and has tremendous upside/potential as SP or RP. A steady piece in rotation or late game bullpen for the foreseeable future.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I have seen many argue that he doesn’t have a future in the rotation. And if he doesn’t, he has considerably less value to the Yankees, who already have two lockdown bullpen arms.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I have no idea really, I think people are torn on him. I think he will get a long look at starter with the Yankees bullpen set and the starting rotation a mess

9:07	Comment From The Gyorko Store Called Does Greg Holland get non-tendered now?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: or Tommy John surgery

9:07	Paul Swydan: Really looking ahead on that one. You would certainly have to think so, but we won’t know for sure until we see what the end game is with his arm.

9:07	Comment From dprat Howdy, Paul (and Jeff?)… more 2016 PAs: Greg Bird or Travis Shaw? Either one get 500?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Bird. I think Shaw has played his way into a bench/platoon role, but I can’t see him supplanting Hanley Ramirez or whoever else the Red Sox acquire to play first base full-time. Meanwhile, Teixeira is still a fragile dove over in Yankeeville.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Shaw, I think, could be close. The Yankees have more options at 1B

9:08	Comment From BMarkham1 Joey Votto is owed $199M over 8 years including his buyout on the option year. If he was a free agent this offseason, how much would he sign for?

9:09	Paul Swydan: After the season he’s been having this year? It’d probably be something similar to this. Maybe lighter on years, but the $25 million AAV feels right.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: 6 years/$120 to $150 off the top of my head

9:09	Comment From BMarkham1 How about adding a leverage index to the game scores, indicating how much impact each individual game is towards a pennant race or world series odds?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: That is beyond my pay grade, but I can ask The Overlord

9:10	Paul Swydan: I guess I’m not sure what game scores you’re referring to, but we have the leverage index in the box scores for sure: http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

9:11	Paul Swydan: 2 outs in the top of the 7th, bases loaded for the Yankees. A-Rod up, and a reliever coming in. DRAMA.

9:11	Comment From Greg Not sure if my message went through. Thanks for chatting guys. Just curious about your opinions’ on the Harvey situation. Should the Mets trade him? If so, for whom?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think I would definitely be shopping him, yes. You would need a top flight return, preferably a shortstop, but you don’t want to tie yourself down to any one position.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: It really depends on what they get back. I think teams may try to low ball the Mets.

9:13	Comment From losing+my+roto If Dusty Baker becomes the Marlins manager, should Jose Fernandez have pre-emptive arm surgery?

9:13	Paul Swydan: No, but he should be very vocal in the media about his usage just to make sure he’s not seen as complicit with any arm abuse Dusty heaps upon him.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: He would need to do it on the whole arm.

9:14	Comment From Minty It’s natural that they’re currently struggling, because that’s what normally happens with rookies, but do you trust Joc or Schwarber more to make the necessary adjustments?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Hendriks in for A-Rod btw.

9:14	Paul Swydan: I trust Schwarber. Not sure about Joc. I want to believe.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Not so much with Pederson, he has had his chance to adjust and hasn’t. Not sure about Schwarber yet.

9:15	Paul Swydan: THREE PITCHES. BREAK UP HENDRIKS.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul must be drunk, he is in the yelling mood

9:16	Paul Swydan: You know what, that’s a good idea. Let me get a PBR. Excuse me.

9:16	Paul Swydan: OK I’m back.

9:16	Comment From Minty If you add his resolve to stay at S plus this season’s defensive efforts, do you think that Correa will actually stay there long term?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I think he will, yes. Having Altuve-Correa up the middle for a long time makes the Astros an exciting team.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, really depends on the needs of the team. I think he is acceptable at SS, especially considering his bat.

9:18	Comment From The+Dude Paul, thoughts on Ellsbury IBB?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Ah, I missed that, sorry.

9:18	Comment From Blast Hardcheese Matt Harvey for a resurgent Starlin Castro.

9:18	Paul Swydan: No, I said top flight return.

9:18	Comment From Phil People forget how amazingly awful Clones was. Phantom Menace had Jake Lloyd, but it also had Liam Neeson and some good light saber action. Clones was just DULL.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I actually think the Clone Wars cartoon was better than the movies

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yeah, the love story just dragged the whole movie down. I haven’t watched I-III in awhile, but I actually think I may have been the best of the three.

9:20	Comment From The+Dude Which comment infuriates you more: “This pitcher is great because he has so many wins” or “This hitter is awesome. Look at how many RBIs he has.” ?

9:21	Paul Swydan: “RBIs” on its own infuriates me. You would never say “Runs Batted Ins.” But also the RBI stat bugs me more too.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Wins, more factors out of the pitcher’s contol go into it. And over the past 3 seasons Jeremy Guthrie is a like top 10 in the league in Wins

9:22	Comment From Blast Hardcheese The lightsaber “battle” in Phanton Menace was garbage, and the 14 hour pod-race was actually somehow worse than all the Ewok nonsense in Jedi.

9:22	Paul Swydan: But neither of those things were worse than pretending you could have a 10-minute lightsaber duel 5 feet above boiling hot lava like in Part III.

9:23	Comment From mattybobo I’m most surprised at the relatively high number who picked Empire Strikes Back as their LEAST favorite. That’s the best one.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Nerd fight

9:23	Paul Swydan: Some people just like a happy ending.

9:23	Comment From Minty I want to believe in both too, but trust Shwarber more too. In our dynasty do I trade Joc in the offseason or give him another year?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I would look for any changes and if none, trade him. If a player can’t adjust, the majors will eat them up.

9:24	Paul Swydan: I think you are probably stuck holding him. The swings in his performance from best to worst sort of drain his trade value, but with the potential it would be unwise to sell low on him.

9:25	Comment From The+Dude This is still in my browser history from last week. https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:25	Paul Swydan: Hahahahahahahha. Jeff’s favorite song!!!

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Horrible

9:26	Comment From losing+my+roto Any nice pitchers to stream ROS?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Jeff is all over this one, I know. He made a list on Sunday.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Wow, Beltran with another go-ahead homer in Toronto. Don’t pitch to Beltran from August on.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Hmm, OK, Jeff is having some computer trouble. Hopefully he’ll circle back to that question later. For my part, I would say Rich Hill, just for the fun of it. Also, Barry Zito.

9:29	Comment From Kenny Williams In regards to the poll question, Avisail Garcia. I mean the guy looks like Miguel Cabrera. Nevermind his dogshit defense, below average offense, and general ineptitude on the bases.

9:29	Paul Swydan: That’s a tour de force answer right there.

9:29	Comment From Stephen Sooo Albert Pujols. He is Dh’ing a lot and still playing hurt. Should I continue to ride him in the playoffs or swap for Trevor Plouffe?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Ooof. I’d probably hang with Pujols, but it’s sad that it’s come to this.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Testing

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Pujols may be done, you may need to drop him, he admits to only swinging with his upper body

9:31	Paul Swydan: Hey check this post from Jeff RE: streaming starters: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

9:31	Comment From Nick Brian Anderson is doing the broadcast for the sox game tonight with Hawk Harrelson. Among topics discussed was never getting to see Tadihito Iguchi naked because he always left the locker room too quickly.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Thanks for sharing?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: He gone

9:31	Comment From Ryan Schwarber, Bryant, Kang, Duffy, Conforto: Give them all 600 PAs, and ____ would be the RoY?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Probably still Bryant, but Kang makes it close.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Bryant on the name recognition coming into the ROY race

9:33

Comment From Nolan
If you were Jeff Samardzija, would you take the White Sox inevitable qualifying offer? On the one hand, you could probably land a multi-year deal that in total would pay much more than a 1 year, 16MM or so deal. On the other hand, you’ve already made millions of dollars in your career, so you don’t need cash immediately, and by taking the one year deal, you could set yourself up for an even bigger payout by pitching well prior to the 2016 off season.

9:34

Paul Swydan: So, Cespedes BBQ had a really interesting tweet the other day about Samardzija. Basically it showed that based on his K and BB numbers, he should be juuuuust fine next year. If we can know that in the public, I’m sure the teams know it as well. So I’d lean toward declining the offer and seeing what I could land on the open market. Also, for a pitcher, the “make-good” one-year deal isn’t as safe as it is for hitters.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he will have to sign with a top team with a low 1st round pick or one of the top 10 which are protected. I am not sure who will give up a pick for a multi-year deal for him. Maybe a team who is already losing a pick

9:35	Comment From Ryan Where would you slot Stroman in for the Toronto playoff rotation? Number 2 behind Price?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Yup.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, probably.

9:36	Comment From Somerville Phil I love Xander and Mookie equally, and it was very cruel of you to make me choose one.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Sorry Somerville Phil.

9:37	Comment From mapsamountainrange Obviously it’s ridiculous, but the Ryan Adams 1989 has some fun tracks.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree

9:37	Paul Swydan: Meh. Get famous writing original songs, dude.

9:37	Comment From Ryan Gerrit Cole is 25 years and 14 days old. Where would he rank among Bryant, Betts and the others in the poll?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Lower, because he’s a pitcher.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Donaldson up with 2 outs and the potential tying run on 2nd here in bot 8.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: At least behind all the hitters

9:39	Comment From Ryan Which injury is more worrisome for the team’s post-season success: Tulo’s or Holland’s?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Definitely Tulo.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Donaldson gets the unintentional-intentional-four-pitch walk.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, the Royals still have the cyborg, Wade Davis

9:40	Paul Swydan: Now Bautista up. Pillar moved to third when I wasn’t looking.

9:40	Comment From Rick Can I take Fernandez in the 25-under poll? Or are we only talking hitters?

9:41	Paul Swydan: You can, but you’d be wrong. He’s already had Tommy John. Exactly how long do you expect his career to last?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Oh snap – one pitch away from ducks on the pond for E5.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: You can have him, I just don’t trust pitchers

9:42	Paul Swydan: DUCKS ON THE POND FOR EDWIN ENCARNACION.

9:42

Comment From Johnny5Alive
I know 6.5 games is a lot. I know its really a lot. But when your best pitcher has been awful enough down the stretch that hes getting starts skipped, your second best pitcher cant throw enough innings in a game, your #3 is a rookie, and you have to rely on the jon neise’s and the bartolo colon’s of the world, isnt it at least a little bit reasonable to be concerned about that last weekend series against the nats and missing the playoffs outright?

9:43	Paul Swydan: It’s not reasonable, but I think that reason flies out the window at this time of year. I think the bigger worry is what they will do when the NLDS starts.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all

9:43	Comment From Only Glove, No Love Where do you stand on “sequencing”? To much made of it? Too little? The future? A conceptual failure?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I think that in most seasons it isn’t relevant because the best team rises to the top of each division. But in a super soft division where there really is no “best” team like this year’s AL West, I think that all the pieces matter, and that’s where sequencing can be very important.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Ohhhh, 2-1 count on E5, and Betances blew 98 right down the middle and he couldn’t catch up.

9:45	Paul Swydan: And then he he got him to chase for the K. Wow.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: There is something to it. One way I could see it work its way in is pitcher HR rate with the bases empty or runners on. Glavine had great skill limitig HRs with runners on while Nolan Ryan was horrible.

9:45

Comment From mapsamountainrange
So, league-wide data for the last several years shows batters perform worse in 2 Out situations than with 0 or 1 Out. Do you think this is an actual batter difference (ie, nerves, lower in lineup, etc)? Do you think there’s selection bias here in that better pitchers are less likely to “get stuck” at low out counts?

9:46	Paul Swydan: More the latter.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably the latter, but their has been better pitching for years. I wonder if we are finally at the bottom of low run scoring environment

9:48	Comment From Rolen Re: Fernandez. Wasn’t the poll question for 2016 only?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yeah, but his elbow could pop again at any time. I wouldn’t want any part of him in 2016 or any subsequent season.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:49	Comment From Phil Ryan Adams has been writing and singing great songs for 20 years. I don’t think he needed to cover Swift to justify himself.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I mean, he has one gold album to his name, and that was an United Kingdom certification. He’s an indie god or whatever, but I think it’s safe to say that the overwhelming majority of this or any country had no idea who he was until he covered TS.

9:50	Paul Swydan: But no, he didn’t need to justify himself by doing it.

9:51	Comment From John Do you think it’s ethical to use an ad blocker on websites who do legitimate business (say, writing for example), and are supported by ads?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I mean, no, but I’m not really coming at this from a neutral standpoint, am I? 🙂 I will say this – if you use an adblocker, I’m not mad at you. I understand the frustration that ads cause.

9:53	Comment From Blast Hardcheese Ryan Adams is the “cuts like a knife” guy, right?

9:53	Paul Swydan: See, no, that’s Bryan Adams. Two very people.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I do all the time. After losing a computer to an ad virus, I don’t care.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Two different people.

9:54	Comment From John Not sure I’d be blowing up Ryan Adams’s spot like that, late-night baseball chat host.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Watch out you guys, angry hipsters on the loose!

9:54

Comment From Brian
Yahoo points league. Our league has turned into teams trying to get as many pitching starts per week as possible and have zero bench depth of hitters. Any solution to this that still keeps it as a points league? Other league members don’t want to monitor starts per week on our own. Please help!

9:56	Paul Swydan: A harder innings cap? That way there would be less incentive to constantly stream starts because you’d fly by your innings limit?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: IP limits are usually the easiest to set. Also some league can be set so only SP get SP points and RP get only RP points.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s a good one too. Our Ottoneu league is set up like that, which stinks, because I could have been slotting in Carlos Martinez in a RP spot all year.

9:57	Comment From Phil Do Price definitely clears $200M now… Does he best Scherzer? Any chance Toronto can afford that? Given B-R payroll projections, it seems a stretch. Though apparently he now employs John Gibbons as his agent.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I think he does clear $200 million. I think Toronto CAN afford that. Whether they will or not I think will depend on how far they make it into the postseason.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Also, hell of a throw from Bautista there. Cut down Chris Young at the plate.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, Price may not want the B.S. contract Scherzer got to reach 200M, be may go for something simpiler with a possible opt-out