FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/17/13

by Paul Swydan

September 17, 2013

6:03

Paul Swydan: Pimpin’, pimpin’, pimpin’ !!!!!!!!

Join Jeff Z and myself tonight at 9 pm ET. We’ll talk Yordano Ventura’s debut, and a lot of other things baseball related. The queue is fired up and ready to go, and I’ll pop in some polls too (poll results located at bottom of transcript).

Gonna be a good night. See you soon!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Alright, let’s do this thang.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds good

9:03	Comment From Cal Guy Better keeper, Walker or Gausman?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Well, Walker hasn’t failed yet, so I guess him. But really they’re both still good keepers.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree on Walker.

9:03	Comment From Cal Guy Are we seeing the transformation of David Price into a pitch to contact guy… the K rate is down, the pitch count is down, the velocity is down?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: He is adjusting like all the greats (see King Felix)

9:04	Paul Swydan: And the velo looks a little higher than it was before his injury. I am still in wait and see mode on this.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Also, frickin Chris Davis!

9:05	Comment From Cal Guy Is this Carpenter’s career year? What do you expect from him next season?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I don’t expect him to be back in the six-win neighborhood, that’s for sure. He’s 27 this year.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably career year, but he should be fine. He hits the ball hard, good discipline.

9:06	Comment From Jaack Where is the “Is Mark Kotsay a Hall of Famer?” poll question?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I knew I forgot something!

9:06	Comment From Jaack Why am I so excited about an Indians playoff run? I don’t even like the Indians all that much, but find myself literally dreaming about Cleveland winning the World Series this year.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Kubler needs to get it together tonight. He is freaking out with runners on base.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Because you’re weird? Because you really miss seeing Terry Francona manage in the postseason? Because Carson has brainwashed you to love Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar? All of the above?

9:07	Comment From George Mike Trout has the second longest average true HR distance this year. What do you think his power ceiling is?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure if he is Joey Votto-ish or go a little more lift.

9:09

Paul Swydan: I guess it depends on what kind of player he wants to be long-term. If he keeps bulking up, he may hit more homers, but he may lose steals. He’s already losing steals this year, so maybe this will just happen naturally. But in general, there are very few guys who can bank on getting to 30 HR. So if he becomes one of those guys — and it’s looking like he will — then that’s a pretty good ceiling.

9:09	Comment From Edge O Y Ventura making debut tonight. Rotation spot next year? If so, what kind of year does he have?

9:10	Paul Swydan: This is more for Jeff. I know there has been speculation that he would need to move to the bullpen. But we’ll see what happens.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Certainly I like the idea of giving him a chance to stick in the rotation.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, he needs to find the strike zone. I wrote about him at Royals Review. Compares to Skaggs. http://www.royalsreview.com/2013/9/17/4740380/breaking-down-yordano-ventura

9:11	Comment From Wes Ubaldo Jiminez lands in _____ for __ years and ___ million.

9:11	Paul Swydan: NY (Yankees), 3, 46

9:12	Paul Swydan: I only say Yankees because when the Rockies traded him, they were the other team that was really hot for him, along with Cleveland.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: 1 year, 8 million with the team who couldn’t sign any of the other “big” free agents.

9:12	Comment From Wes Whose odds to make the playoffs do you like better: Royals or Nationals?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Royals. Which is to say neither.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Royals of course.

9:13	Comment From Ryan Does the Braves rotation worry you in a short series? They seem to have a lot of decent-good starters, rather than a couple dominant starters.

9:13	Paul Swydan: It doesn’t worry me because I try not to worry about things like that. But I could see how they would have issues. I guess it depends on the matchup though. I wouldn’t worry about them vs. PIT or CIN, because they have similar rotations. STL or LAD, that is a different story.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, but the Dodgers on the only team with multiple aces in the NL.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: A little Sullivan-ish eye candy: http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3238907/cabrera_medium.gif

9:14	Paul Swydan: I mean, you could make the Waino-Miller argument for STL.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Asdrubal the worst.

9:15	Comment From Roger What’s the best baseball vacation: Arizona Fall League, Spring Training in Florida, or College World Series?

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Arizona by far IMO. Better than Florida because all is close.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Spring Training in Florida is the worst vacation. So not that. AFL vs. CWS really kind of depends on what you’re looking to see. If you want better competition but no stakes, AFL. If you want to see inferior competition but with huge stakes, then CWS.

9:16	Comment From SeaBass I’m watching Chicago White Sox baseball on a television device. Please console me.

9:16	Paul Swydan: At least you’re not watching the Astros?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: He gone!!!!!!!!!!

9:16	Comment From George Is it a fair assumption to say that Ichiro is toast as a useful baseball player?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I think that was fair to say last year. Maybe even the year before last.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh yea, he is trying to make Paul’s worst last season list.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Yes!

9:18	Paul Swydan: Read those, I had a lot of fun with those.

9:18	Comment From Prich How much will the Brewers be looking for in a potential Aoki trade this winter?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: As much as they can get. Several holes to fill.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Probably more than they will get. Aoki, unfortunately, is a tweener. You kind of need to have two guys like Braun and Gomez opposite him to be able to accomodate him playing every day.

9:19	Comment From zack Who would you offer more money too: Lincecum or Ubaldo?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Lincecum, he could be useful as a reliever if he can’t start.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Ubaldo. They’re the same age. Lincecum has about 5 more WAR and about 120 more innings pitched. Not as much difference between the two as it might seem, and Ubaldo still has more juice on his fastball.

9:21	Paul Swydan: It’s amazing how many times I’ve flip-flopped on Ubaldo the past three years.

9:21	Comment From zack If the Rays trade Shields this offseason what kind of return would they get? I mean if Shields is worth Myers? David Price is on another level.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Wait, what? Is this a question from last winter?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, what is the question?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Or did you mean if the Royals trade him? I don’t see the Royals trading him, if that is the question.

9:23	Comment From person hscer Jeter didn’t partially inspire the worst last seasons series, did he?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Nope. It was more my post on Yaz, and then the joint retirements of Helton and Guerrero.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I figured it was Helton.

9:23	Comment From 24601

9:24	Comment From Jaack Who gets more this winter: Pence or Choo. Also, who will get a larger contract?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I see what you did there. I personally would not want to go near within 10 feet of Pence, so I’ll say Choo on both accounts.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Choo, but please cheap him out of CF

9:25	Comment From zack Who wins more games next season: Padres or Giants?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Ventura just hit 97 in the 5th.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Padres. But I always say the Padres.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Gut says Giants. They should have a little money to spend on some much need talent.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Oh, also a big thank you to Yahoo! for neglecting to add Ventura tonight. It’s cool, I didn’t need five innings of shutout ball tonight.

9:26	Comment From Crash Davis so…can we keep saying Alex Anthopoulos is a great gm?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: He is better than Dayton Moore.

9:27	Paul Swydan: We can keep saying it, but it’s more of an open question now than it has been previously as to whether he actually is or not.

9:27	Comment From Jaack CWS would be a good stop on a cross country road trip since there is so much of nothing between Chicago and the obligatory Mt. Rushmore stop.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Fair enough. But then, you could also just power right through to Denver and drink lots of good craft beer.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: A few wineries make it tolerable.

9:28	Comment From zack Tommy Hanson just came off the DL. Is it safe to assume he will never be good again?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I would be comfortable with this assessment. Jeff?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: He is done, I would see no reason to roster him at all.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Jenny Dell just said there is no expected return date for Ellsbury, but that Farrell expects him back before the end of the season. Maybe it’s just me, but I’d say that makes his expected return date 9-29-13 or earlier….?

9:30	Comment From Tommy John Has a position player ever had Tommy John?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Yeah, absolutely. Justin Maxwell is the example that comes to mind first. I know Jeff has others in his DB though.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, one sec for list.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdFpGbk84WnhNZlZ4VlFEY3pDVkFzNnc

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: On Ellsbury, most players with fractured feet miss about 40 games.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, Kyle Blanks.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I know Jeff, I’m not optimistic. I just thought it was funny that she was able to so quickly contradict herself.

9:32	Comment From bucs_lose_again Did Paul really just sat that Trout has a “pretty good ceiling?”

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Full broken foot list: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-9913/#comment-810799

9:32	Paul Swydan: Shut it.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul the pessimist.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:33	Paul Swydan: If rat-faced Posada can make it back in 16 days, then so can Ellsbury!

9:33	Comment From Mike Cano’s most likely landing spot in your opinion? You think the Cubs will make a legitimate effort to sign him?

9:33	Paul Swydan: The Cubs will be an interesting wild card in the discussion, but I am only expecting the Yankees and Dodgers to be among the serious bidders at this point.

9:34	Comment From SeaBass Any ideas to prevent three hour games? Pitch clock?Cutback on mid inning entertainment? (Think t-shirt launcher, dancing on the dugout…but…getting rid of the sausage race is NEVER an option)

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: enforce the 30 sec between pitches.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Well, the main problem is the commercial breaks. MLB should be more forceful in pushing their TV partners to adopt more World Cup style advertising, where there is always a sponsor logo on the screen, but the action is seamless throughout.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, Chris Dwyer, Ventura’s replace for the AAA championship game, just gave up his first hit in the 7th. Was facing Odorizzi.

9:36

Paul Swydan: As for an actual pitch clock, like a shot clock in basketball, I don’t support that. What I DO support is a post-hoc timing. Some interns in the commissioner’s office sit there and track times between pitches (probably can be automated), and if the pitcher is over the 25-30 second limit, then they get suspended for their next start. That’d fix it real quick.

But for the record, I don’t view it as the largest problem.

9:37	Comment From Boogs barbecue Given the outstanding performances of many of the kid pitchers this year, Gausman would seem to be a ways away yet. Do you guys foresee him being a part of the O’s rotation next year and, if so, what kind of numbers might we expect?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I do foresee him as part of their rotation next year. I think we have to be cautious to not assume that every prospect will succeed right away. That’s simply not how it works. Gausman should be a big contributor for their rotation next season.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Ooof. Francona’s itchy trigger finger this month is KILLING me.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I really needed another inning out of Kluber.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: He will be fine, just checking his stats. 8.5 k/9 and 2.8 BB/9 is fine.

9:39	Comment From Jesse what would be better if the suspensions weren’t announced until 15 minutes before a pitcher’s next scheduled start!

9:40	Paul Swydan: Well that would just be cruel. But I suppose in a vindictive sort of way, yes.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Not fan, but I think if more than 30 sec, the hitter gets a ball.

9:41	Comment From Cle Buck Olz How much of called strikeout % is luck and how much is skill?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I honestly have no idea.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea and I haven’t seen a good study on it.

9:41	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=15&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,a

9:42	Paul Swydan: I mean, look at that list. Lot of good pitchers there, but there’s also Joe Saunders, and Bronson Arroyo. And Rick Porcello. So … yeah, I got nothing.

9:42	Paul Swydan: My guess is that junkballers like them would muck up the results of any objective study.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: and R.A. Dickey

9:43	Comment From John Thoughts on Danny Espinosa? Good buy low candidate? Personally, I’d like to see the Cubs give him a shot if they can work out a deal

9:43	Paul Swydan: I would stay away until I knew he was completely healthy.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I am thinking the Royals should do the same thing.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Damn. Machado doubles and now its 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the 8th for the O’s.

9:44	Comment From Matty If I ask you for a player who so many people say is underrated that he is overrated, who do you think of first?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Zobrist.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I think Cameron made that happen with Angel Pagan last year.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Zobrist is a good one!

9:44	Comment From person hscer Ben Zobrist

9:45	Comment From Gila Monster Why do people complain about baseball game length? Football games are almost as long, have a ton of ads at random intervals, and have a half time. At least in baseball the action is pretty continuous…

9:45	Paul Swydan: Because that’s not how it was back in my day!!! Rawwrrr!

9:45	Paul Swydan: No in all honesty it’s because baseball is open-ended.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t handle football games in person anymore. just horrible.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Well, not sober anyway.

9:46	Comment From Jack Say the Sox don’t bring back Ellsbury. Where do Victorino, Bradley Jr., Carp, Nava, and Gomes all go?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:47

Paul Swydan: I think Carp hangs out at 1B mostly.

I think Bradley Jr. gets a shot to start in center. If he can handle it, Victorino moves back to RF and Nava and Gomes platoon in LF. If Bradley can’t, well then Victorino plays a lot more CF, and the defense gets weak with Nava and Gomes playing a lot more regularly.

9:47	Comment From Shark Mapiro Do you expect advertisements on MLB jerseys at any point in the next 10 years?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I don’t. I don’t think it’s necessary, to be honest.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I am surprised there isn’t any yet.

9:48	Comment From Jaack Watching a live football game is like going to a Celine Dion concert with everyone you met in the DMV that day.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Haha. Good one.

9:49	Comment From Jack But Nava has played to well to be stuck in a platoon. Or do you think he’ll regress?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I think Nava is the quintessential example of a guy who can be great over 500 PA but is probably going to be stretched over 700.

9:50	Paul Swydan: And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Just like Jones of Pittsburgh

9:50	Comment From stitch Was the Red Sox “tribute” to Rivera rude? Or is that sort of thing ok on a farewell tour?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Doesn’t really matter

9:51	Paul Swydan: Rude how? To Red Sox fans? Hell no. I thought the Red Sox did a great job with it — especially the signed “42” placard. I thought that was great.

9:51	Comment From Lawdog Everybody calm down. There’s no historical precedent for a late season collapse by the Braves, amirite?!?!?!

9:51	Paul Swydan: None whatsoever.

9:52	Comment From Henry Did my own research on how often grounders become hits. What I found was that players have control over the general rate at which they do, but year-by-year, they fluctuate just like BABIP. Thoughts?

9:52	Paul Swydan: This makes a lot of sense intuitively.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds right and BABIP will be weird for a few more years as teams work more and more with shifts.

9:53	Comment From Paul Swydan Craig Breslow is a good baseball player

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh please God, this world can only handle one Paul.

9:54	Paul Swydan: http://youknowjack.fivewells.com/oh-indeed.html

9:54	Comment From Jesse Rude would have been having Dave Roberts and Bill Mueller present Rivera with a retiremnt plaque

9:54	Comment From Gila Monster I need a new television series to plow through on Netflix. Something along the lines of Lost(my favorite) or BB/Battlestar Galatica where the plot is fairly continuous with strong character devolpment and not the whole “case of the week” thing

9:55	Paul Swydan: I really enjoyed Orange is the New Black, but that is only one season. So far, anyway.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: The British Office?

9:55	Comment From Plagarist I think the complaints about the Rivera thing was that it was more about the Red Sox in ’04 than Rivera’s career. Seems silly to me, since he’s on a friggin farewell tour, he should expect some minor ribbing.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Yeah I didn’t see any of it as a problem. I thought ESPN should have showed some highlights from him finishing off Game 7 of the ’03 ALCS though, just to even things out a little.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I really don’t get how this matters.

9:56	Comment From Paul Swydan IMPOSTER!

9:57	Comment From Dylan Can we do an After Dark chat where everyone is drunk?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Is this like that scene in V for Vendetta? I am the chancellor!

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: We’re not?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Uh, Dylan, we’re always drunk.

9:57	Comment From SeaBass Mad Men

9:57	Paul Swydan: That’s a good one.

9:58	Comment From Dave Bogaerts a Hall of Famer yet?

9:58	Paul Swydan: He’s been a hall of famer for like three weeks now. Come on.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: According to both Pauls, yes.

9:58	Comment From person hscer How do you have time or patience for sports AND television shows? Except Archer.

9:58	Comment From David Appelman Drinking on the job? You are all fired.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I actually don’t have the time. I have a good 10 episodes of “The Bridge” eating up my DVR queue that feel like they’re never going to get watched.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Also, Appelman bought a bottle of sake the last time we went to dinner. I say he’s bluffing!